Now if this was the Home Run Derby where you can choose your college pitching coach to lob in softballs and the hitter can stand in the batters box and see how many and how far he could hit them over the fence than I would say the Dodgers is a four game sweep.
But this isn't the Home Run Derby, this is the World Series where you actually have to pitch real pitches with real pitchers and play real defense, you know, play real baseball.
If you've been reading my stuff for the past decade then you should know by now my mantra has always been (and always will be) "pitching usually wins". "Good pitching usually beats good hitting"
And I'm putting my money where my mouth is.
Tampa has the better pitching.
Tampa has the better starting three man rotation, and Tampa has the better relieve pitching.
While it's true the Dodgers have the better hitting, go back to the part where I said "good pitching usually beats good hitting"
And if this proves out again, +177 is a very nice value.
Tampa is starting Tyler Glasnow is game 1.
Glasnow was 5 and 1 during the regular season and 2 and 1 during the post season.
While the 4 ERA is mediocre, the 1.1 WH/IP is not.
It means he doesn't allow many base runners.
Glasnow throws a 100 mph fastball at the shoulders and his ancillary off speed stuff is good and makes his 100 mph fastball seen like 120 mph.
Clayton Kershaw starts for the LA Dodgers in game 1.
His regular season accomplishments are well documented.
So are his post season accomplishments.
That being Kershaw is the worst starting pitcher in the post season in MLB history.
(more on that later)
Game 2 Tampa starts Blake Snell
Snell won 21 games in 2018 and a Cy Young Award as well.
He was outstanding in the 2019 post season, and has pitched well in 3 out of 4 2020 post season games.
I see Walter Buehler listed for Game 3 for the Dodgers but no starter listed for Game 2.
I'm assuming that would be either left handed spot starter Julio Urias, right handed second year pro Tony Gonselin or right hander Dustin May.
If I was manager Dave Roberts (but I'm not, I'm just some dopey sports analytical geek that write a blog for fun and a few pennies) I would start left handed Julio Urias mainly because he's left handed, his pitches are difficult to hit as a left handed batter and Tampa Bay's line up is left handed top heavy, and move May and Gonselin to the bull pen for long relief where I believe that is the Dodgers weakest link (their bull pen)
Game 3 even though Tampa Bay has not announced it will start Charlie Morton.
Charlie Morton has been virtually unhittable all post season.
He's made three starts, allowed one earned run, on just 11 hits in those three starts going 3 and 0.
And he's been doing it the past four seasons.
Since coming from a very bad situation in Pittsburgh where the environment was a losing one, Morton has done this.
(Note he's made virtually every start since 2017, note the K ratio, hell note all the stats)
From what I read as of this writing Walter Buehler (source MLB.com) starts game three for LA.
Beuhler is no shit bum, but give me the proven decade long veteran (Morton) in this match up.
Tampa has the edge in starting pitching.
Glasnow, Snell, and Morton is a better front three then Kershaw, Buehler, and a third starter of either Urias, May, or Gonselin)
I'm not going to go into detailed metrics to back up my claim that Tampa also has the better bullpen.
By almost any metric you want to use Tampa has the best bullpen in the American League and probably all of baseball.
Tampa will more than likely move left handed pitcher Ryan Yarbrough to the bullpen, giving them a more left/right balance to join LHP Aaron Loup.
From top to bottom TB's bull pen is stingy on hitters, and come from all different angles and speeds that keep the best of major league batter off balanced.
Tampa has the clear advantage in relief pitching.
I can't discount hitting, it is part of the game.
I am not going to get long winded as to which team has the most power.
Because it's not a long winded argument,
LA does, from the SS Seager, to the 1B/OF Bellinger, to Mookie Betts, the Dodgers are loaded with power.
They also strike out a lot too.
The Dodgers lineup has flaws, but I'm not stubborn or naïve enough to realize that the Dodgers have a clear edge on offense.
But I'm from the school of pitching beats hitting, and good defense (which TB has the better of) not taking anything away from Betts in the outfield, but if you have been watching these playoff games, and haven't noticed gold glove caliber infield play of Wendle at third base and Adames at SS for the Rays, then well you haven't been paying attention.
I'm also from the school of the better *team* wins, not the team with the most talent.
If you would ask me who the team is with the most talent in this matchup I would tell you LA.
But if you were to ask me which 24 man dugout plays the best as a team unit with each and every man knowing their roles, I would say Tampa plays better as a unit.
The causal fan may know 8 Dodgers by name in the dugout, and maybe two Rays.
This isn't an individual game, it's a team game, and I believe TB has the better team.
Hell, I'm betting on it.
I'm starting to get long winded (Gee Nasher, the hell you say?)
Good pitching usually beats good hitting.
Post season MLB baseball is dotted with examples of this.
The 2015 Royals won with pitching and defense. KC won with the best bullpen in baseball since the 1990 Nasty Boys and a dugout of pretty much great role no name role players that knew their roles and did it great.
Speaking of the 1990 Nasty Boy bullpen, they beat all that Oakland power with a three headed monster of a bullpen.
Those great Yankee teams if you look at it from the last 1990's won with pitching (Clemens and Pettitte and Rivera, and the rest) oh sure they had punch, but it started with the pitching.
The 2002 Angels won with only two real batters (Troy Glaus and Garrett Anderson) and seven role players that knew their roles, but they had a impregnable closer in Troy Percival, and a front three starters that won 14, 15, and 18 games. (name the three starters, win valuable prizes.)
I can continue, but I think I made my point here.
The Dodgers may have the best hitting, but the Rays have the better manager (Cash) the better team defense, the better starting pitching, the better relief pitching, and I believe the better *team*
Rays +177 to win the series.
2*
But this isn't the Home Run Derby, this is the World Series where you actually have to pitch real pitches with real pitchers and play real defense, you know, play real baseball.
If you've been reading my stuff for the past decade then you should know by now my mantra has always been (and always will be) "pitching usually wins". "Good pitching usually beats good hitting"
And I'm putting my money where my mouth is.
Tampa has the better pitching.
Tampa has the better starting three man rotation, and Tampa has the better relieve pitching.
While it's true the Dodgers have the better hitting, go back to the part where I said "good pitching usually beats good hitting"
And if this proves out again, +177 is a very nice value.
Tampa is starting Tyler Glasnow is game 1.
Glasnow was 5 and 1 during the regular season and 2 and 1 during the post season.
While the 4 ERA is mediocre, the 1.1 WH/IP is not.
It means he doesn't allow many base runners.
Glasnow throws a 100 mph fastball at the shoulders and his ancillary off speed stuff is good and makes his 100 mph fastball seen like 120 mph.
Clayton Kershaw starts for the LA Dodgers in game 1.
His regular season accomplishments are well documented.
So are his post season accomplishments.
That being Kershaw is the worst starting pitcher in the post season in MLB history.
(more on that later)
Game 2 Tampa starts Blake Snell
Snell won 21 games in 2018 and a Cy Young Award as well.
He was outstanding in the 2019 post season, and has pitched well in 3 out of 4 2020 post season games.
I see Walter Buehler listed for Game 3 for the Dodgers but no starter listed for Game 2.
I'm assuming that would be either left handed spot starter Julio Urias, right handed second year pro Tony Gonselin or right hander Dustin May.
If I was manager Dave Roberts (but I'm not, I'm just some dopey sports analytical geek that write a blog for fun and a few pennies) I would start left handed Julio Urias mainly because he's left handed, his pitches are difficult to hit as a left handed batter and Tampa Bay's line up is left handed top heavy, and move May and Gonselin to the bull pen for long relief where I believe that is the Dodgers weakest link (their bull pen)
Game 3 even though Tampa Bay has not announced it will start Charlie Morton.
Charlie Morton has been virtually unhittable all post season.
He's made three starts, allowed one earned run, on just 11 hits in those three starts going 3 and 0.
And he's been doing it the past four seasons.
Since coming from a very bad situation in Pittsburgh where the environment was a losing one, Morton has done this.
(Note he's made virtually every start since 2017, note the K ratio, hell note all the stats)
| Year |
W | L | W-L% | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | FIP | WHIP | H9 | HR9 | BB9 | SO9 | SO/W |
| 2017-2020 | 47 | 18 | 0.723 | 3.34 | 97 | 97 | 546.1 | 452 | 220 | 203 | 51 | 181 | 646 | 127 | 3.27 | 1.159 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 3 | 10.6 | 3.57 |
| Average | 12 | 4 | 24 | 24 | 137 | 113 | 55 | 51 | 13 | 45 | 162 | ||||||||||
| per 162 games | 17 | 7 | 35 | 35 | 192 | 159 | 78 | 72 | 18 | 64 | 227 |
From what I read as of this writing Walter Buehler (source MLB.com) starts game three for LA.
Beuhler is no shit bum, but give me the proven decade long veteran (Morton) in this match up.
Tampa has the edge in starting pitching.
Glasnow, Snell, and Morton is a better front three then Kershaw, Buehler, and a third starter of either Urias, May, or Gonselin)
I'm not going to go into detailed metrics to back up my claim that Tampa also has the better bullpen.
By almost any metric you want to use Tampa has the best bullpen in the American League and probably all of baseball.
Tampa will more than likely move left handed pitcher Ryan Yarbrough to the bullpen, giving them a more left/right balance to join LHP Aaron Loup.
From top to bottom TB's bull pen is stingy on hitters, and come from all different angles and speeds that keep the best of major league batter off balanced.
Tampa has the clear advantage in relief pitching.
I can't discount hitting, it is part of the game.
I am not going to get long winded as to which team has the most power.
Because it's not a long winded argument,
LA does, from the SS Seager, to the 1B/OF Bellinger, to Mookie Betts, the Dodgers are loaded with power.
They also strike out a lot too.
The Dodgers lineup has flaws, but I'm not stubborn or naïve enough to realize that the Dodgers have a clear edge on offense.
But I'm from the school of pitching beats hitting, and good defense (which TB has the better of) not taking anything away from Betts in the outfield, but if you have been watching these playoff games, and haven't noticed gold glove caliber infield play of Wendle at third base and Adames at SS for the Rays, then well you haven't been paying attention.
I'm also from the school of the better *team* wins, not the team with the most talent.
If you would ask me who the team is with the most talent in this matchup I would tell you LA.
But if you were to ask me which 24 man dugout plays the best as a team unit with each and every man knowing their roles, I would say Tampa plays better as a unit.
The causal fan may know 8 Dodgers by name in the dugout, and maybe two Rays.
This isn't an individual game, it's a team game, and I believe TB has the better team.
Hell, I'm betting on it.
I'm starting to get long winded (Gee Nasher, the hell you say?)
Good pitching usually beats good hitting.
Post season MLB baseball is dotted with examples of this.
The 2015 Royals won with pitching and defense. KC won with the best bullpen in baseball since the 1990 Nasty Boys and a dugout of pretty much great role no name role players that knew their roles and did it great.
Speaking of the 1990 Nasty Boy bullpen, they beat all that Oakland power with a three headed monster of a bullpen.
Those great Yankee teams if you look at it from the last 1990's won with pitching (Clemens and Pettitte and Rivera, and the rest) oh sure they had punch, but it started with the pitching.
The 2002 Angels won with only two real batters (Troy Glaus and Garrett Anderson) and seven role players that knew their roles, but they had a impregnable closer in Troy Percival, and a front three starters that won 14, 15, and 18 games. (name the three starters, win valuable prizes.)
I can continue, but I think I made my point here.
The Dodgers may have the best hitting, but the Rays have the better manager (Cash) the better team defense, the better starting pitching, the better relief pitching, and I believe the better *team*
Rays +177 to win the series.
2*
