Does betting MLB Runline favorites for dog money really work?

[Runeblade]

Yesterday's plays (unquoted)

Ticket #: 4510627 Sep 02 06:40 PM Sep 02 08:10 PM	MLB MLB	PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [955] TOR -109 ( ACTION ) [974] HOU -200 ( ACTION )		+188	WIN WIN WIN	09/02/2020 06:31 PM
Ticket #: 4510633 Sep 02 08:05 PM Sep 02 08:10 PM	MLB MLB	PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [969] CLE -160 ( ACTION ) [974] HOU -200 ( ACTION )		+144	WIN WIN WIN	09/02/2020 06:34 PM

RL's on Hou. and Tor. were no good.
RL on Cle.-1½ -102 was good

Thats pretty sick man. Whats your overall ROI since you have been doing this?

[dante1]

Never works

systems? they are fun and I played all types of systems for decades, none really worked--period. yeah you think you found something because it seems to have worked for a month or even two the idea is it must work forever. they can't and they never will. so have fun play around with a system and maybe you might get lucky for an entire year. you will think I can't wait for next year and then it will crap the bed.

BTW, you might yeah you might be ahead if you play all underdogs in the NFL for oh let's say a few decades. Maybe, you might be up some loose change.

[PAULYPOKER]

Thats pretty sick man. Whats your overall ROI since you have been doing this?

Couldn't tell ya except it's the easiest sport to cap for me.

I'll start keeping track in this thread though..

[habitualwinning]

What determines what team you play -1.5? Like why did you take the Yankees(L) yesterday when there were options like the Cubs and Padres out there that won easily even the -2.5 and -3.5 won on those two games. You woulda got huge + on those lines.

[PAULYPOKER]

What determines what team you play -1.5? Like why did you take the Yankees(L) yesterday when there were options like the Cubs and Padres out there that won easily even the -2.5 and -3.5 won on those two games. You woulda got huge + on those lines.

Yeah, we knew those two games were going to win huge but decided we wanted to lose out on the huge payday.

[PAULYPOKER]

I tell myself whatever keeps me confident but chill is the formula for success.

Without confidence you have a snowball's chance in Hell of being successful at this,
at anything in life for that matter.

[habitualwinning]

Yeah, we knew those two games were going to win huge but decided we wanted to lose out on the huge payday.

Lol. I was asking OP that made the thread. He didn't explain why the Yankees was the pick. Is he just throwing darts or what? You on the other hand explained your theory well. I completely understood your thought process and parlay method. Made sense. Idk why the other guy played Yanks -1.5 yesterday. I know another guy that does this but what he does is he caps all the games and whichever one he has as the biggest blowout of the day he bets like the -2.5 or -3.5 for bigger money. I doubt it works long-term but he claims he's up big. He was on Padres yesterday for example -2.5. I'm just curious what the thought process is.

[Runeblade]

Lol. I was asking OP that made the thread. He didn't explain why the Yankees was the pick. Is he just throwing darts or what? You on the other hand explained your theory well. I completely understood your thought process and parlay method. Made sense. Idk why the other guy played Yanks -1.5 yesterday. I know another guy that does this but what he does is he caps all the games and whichever one he has as the biggest blowout of the day he bets like the -2.5 or -3.5 for bigger money. I doubt it works long-term but he claims he's up big. He was on Padres yesterday for example -2.5. I'm just curious what the thought process is.

I try to find the highest dog price for a -1.5 runline

[Runeblade]

I tell myself whatever keeps me confident but chill is the formula for success.

Without confidence you have a snowball's chance in Hell of being successful at this,
at anything in life for that matter.

Which is exactly why I like to experiment with things that sports bettors don't normally do. I'm going outside of the box. keep in mind that I'm in no way betting on these games. This is just collecting data for me. it's kinda weird but it's fun for me when I'm on lunch at work.

[PAULYPOKER]

Betting on the Highest price RL BLINDLY isn't going to get you there for sure because
those are the worst odds on a RL you can possibly purchase.

You still need to cap/do the work.

Nothing is ever free and blind betting is exactly trying to win free money.

[PAULYPOKER]

2 fukkin blown lead bad beats today!!!

NYY on my ML 2 team parlay(Houston ML the 2nd leg)

And Washington ML straight bet!

Gambling gods coming after me for posting my plays!

I'm done here.

I hope what I laid down in this thread is useful to someone.

Good luck all!

[Runeblade]

2 fukkin blown lead bad beats today!!!

NYY on my ML 2 team parlay(Houston ML the 2nd leg)

And Washington ML straight bet!

Gambling gods coming after me for posting my plays!

I'm done here.

I hope what I laid down in this thread is useful to someone.

Good luck all!

I know, that always happens like that too!...I thought I had the Yankees up 4-0 then they were up 7-4 and still lost. What in the actual f*** is going on with the Yankees lol

[Runeblade]

9/3/2020 New York F*** offs -1.5(+140) LOSS

New York F*** offs 7 New York Mets 9

Record 0-3 0%

Units -3

[PAULYPOKER]

I also had Zona ML+251 for a half unit like Wash. and it wasn't a bad beat but still they lost.

On paper they had a better than good chance..........!

[Runeblade]

I also had Zona ML+251 for a half unit like Wash. and it wasn't a bad beat but still they lost.

On paper they had a better than good chance..........!

The gambling Gods are fickle I say!

[Runeblade]

9/4/2020 Seattle Mariners -1.5(+160)

[PAULYPOKER]

My fault though Because I swayed away from my very blueprint posted in this thread.

My blueprint says NO DOGS PERIOD and Wash.Zona NYY were dogs and that
was why I got my wig split wide open with a fukkin Tomahawk last night!

Good Luck on Seattle there chief

[Runeblade]

My fault though Because I swayed away from my very blueprint posted in this thread.

My blueprint says NO DOGS PERIOD and Wash.Zona NYY were dogs and that
was why I got my wig split wide open with a fukkin Tomahawk last night!

Good Luck on Seattle there chief

Thanks you too good luck on all your bets today.

[Runeblade]

9/4/2020 Seattle Mariners -1.5(+160) WIN

Texas Rangers 3 Seattle Mariners 6

Record 1-3 25%

Units -1.4

[Runeblade]

9/5/2020 Oakland Athletics -1.5(+180)

[Runeblade]

9/5/2020 Oakland Athletics -1.5(+180) WIN

San Diego Padres 4 Oakland Athletics 8

Record 2-3 40%

Units +0.4

[Runeblade]

9/6/2020 Seattle Mariners -1.5(+150)

[Sam Odom]

Units +0.4

[Runeblade]

Well, we are in the green for the moment. Lets see if we can get some traction here.

[jjgold]

Hanging around but you need a run now

[Runeblade]

Hanging around but you need a run now

Exactly just need a few more wins cause you know that losing streak is right around the corner.

[Runeblade]

9/6/2020 Seattle Mariners -1.5(+150) LOSS

Texas Rangers 3 Seattle Mariners 4

Record 2-4 33%

Units -0.6

[Runeblade]

9/7/2020 San Francisco Giants -1.5(+180)

[stevenash]

I’ve been spot playing (and if you fellas read my drivel you know this) run line road favorites for years and I’m showing a modest profit.

Spot plays are the key, pick and choose your spots.

[Runeblade]

I’ve been spot playing (and if you fellas read my drivel you know this) run line road favorites for years and I’m showing a modest profit.

Spot plays are the key, pick and choose your spots.

Agree 100%. I'm just seeing if I can be lazy and get away with it. lol

[Twisted_One]

Spot plays are the key, pick and choose your spots.

EXACTLY and SF is a bad spot imo. TOR R/L is a much better spot

[Runeblade]

The method behind my madness is this:

If you look at the ML on all these plays Iv'e played so far you will see that it's pretty close. Tonight's game for example San Fran is -120 Arizona is even or it might be -110 to -105 or what not. The book is telling us its almost a coin flip. Honestly who the f*** is going to know who is going to win the game. If I bet the favorite on the ML on these plays, I would be 3-3 50% but I would be losing the juice. I'm effectively taking the juice out of the equation and betting on the favorite by giving up 1.5 runs. The only missing data point is how many times the favorite has won by 2 runs. I would assume that it's more difficult for the book to determine who gets the +1.5 and -1.5 on close ML odds. I seek to take advantage of this. I don't expect to come out a winner but hey what the hell.

Look at Tonight's game between Washington and Tampa bay both at -110 but Washington is -1.5(+180). Washington was -1.5(+160) earlier. Tampa Bay is a far tougher opponent to Washington than Arizona is to San Fran IMO.

[KVB]

I've been eyeing that Was runline today.

From a market perspective was are starting to see money and bets come in on Was though, so I might back off of the play.

This last hour of trading will decide.

[Runeblade]

I've been eyeing that Was runline today.

From a market perspective was are starting to see money and bets come in on Was though, so I might back off of the play.

This last hour of trading will decide.

Tampa is by far the hotter team. The books are looking at the pitching of course. Max Scherzer always gives them a chance to win. Even though Washington has a lousy record especially the last 10 they still score a lot with only a differential of -23.

[Runeblade]

And of course Washington kicks their ass tonight and I didn't post that play instead. Just my luck lol