Does betting MLB Runline favorites for dog money really work?

[Runeblade]

Lets find out shall we?

Rules are simple.
Bet the runline in baseball for the highest dog price.
1 unit
-20 units will be the end of the thread proving it wont work. DO NOT FOLLOW THIS...Just collecting data for fun

Todays play:

Chicago Whitesox -1.5(+140)

[jjgold]

It doesn’t work but you can at least try and experiment why not better than any other method

[mjsuax13]

It’s worth a shot. Not sure how many hit now but hell, go for it.

[Getch13]

MLB Team Run Line Trends - All Games, 2020

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/trends/ats_trends/

[PAULYPOKER]

I Know this much as fact.

Fav RL hits more than straight up ML dogs.

[Runeblade]

It doesn’t work but you can at least try and experiment why not better than any other method

Yeah it probably wont, I was bored at work on lunch so I just felt like coming up with goofy shit. On the plus side there is no juice. and If an average price is +130 or +140 then you only have to hit 35-40% of the plays?

[LongBall52]

Like many systems it will likely work for a given period. Probably the key is to refine it adding some type of condition to the bet, if one exists such as starting pitcher era etc..etc.. They may already be built into the money line.

[PAULYPOKER]

The main thing is to try an eliminate chalk from every play but don't go crazy look for ev to +120.

Whether it be RL or heavy ML 2 team parlay.

[PAULYPOKER]

From my experience a Fav RL either hits or the said team loses straight up more times than not.

[HeeluvaGuy]

FYI, the Marlins RL is +175. These are tricky since lines move. My advice would be to grade it out using closing lines so you have something that's repeatable if that's important to you.

[Runeblade]

FYI, the Marlins RL is +175. These are tricky since lines move. My advice would be to grade it out using closing lines so you have something that's repeatable if that's important to you.

Thank you, I missed that one!...I'm allready getting sloppy lol

[Runeblade]

Official play is Miami Marlins -1.5(+160) for 9/1/2020

[johnnyvegas13]

I think u do better taking ml

esp the home team

[Mr KLC]

Watching Blue Jays/Marlins on FS1. Looks like the Marlins might set a franchise attendance record today.

[Runeblade]

Watching Blue Jays/Marlins on FS1. Looks like the Marlins might set a franchise attendance record today.

Ha yeah and my play isn't looking so good right now either.

[Runeblade]

9/1/2020 Miami Marlins -1.5(+160) LOSS

Toronto 2 Miami 3

Record: 0-1 0%
Units -1

[Shute]

Never works

[PAULYPOKER]

Official play is Miami Marlins -1.5(+160) for 9/1/2020

9/1/2020 Miami Marlins -1.5(+160) LOSS

Toronto 2 Miami 3

Record: 0-1 0%
Units -1

Todays play:

Chicago Whitesox -1.5(+140)

[Runeblade]

Todays play:

Chicago Whitesox -1.5(+140)

My bad The Marlins were the highest price. The marlins were at +160

[gauchojake]

Yeah it probably wont, I was bored at work on lunch so I just felt like coming up with goofy shit. On the plus side there is no juice. and If an average price is +130 or +140 then you only have to hit 35-40% of the plays?

if you think there is no juice you are already behind the curve so to speak

[PAULYPOKER]

Here are a few sample plays...

Ticket #: 4504291 Aug 25 07:10 PM Aug 25 08:05 PM	MLB MLB	PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [958] CLE -172 ( ACTION ) [971] OAK -160 ( ACTION )		+157	WIN WIN WIN	08/25/2020 07:08 PM
Ticket #: 4504292 Aug 25 07:10 PM Aug 25 08:05 PM	MLB MLB	PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [958] CLE -1½+120 ( ACTION ) [971] OAK -1½-110 ( ACTION )		+320	WIN WIN WIN	08/25/2020 07:08 PM

Ticket #: 4504940 Aug 26 06:40 PM Aug 26 08:15 PM

MLB MLB

PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [908] TB -164 ( ACTION ) [920] STL -164 ( ACTION )

+159

WIN WIN WIN

08/26/2020 05:09 PM

Ticket #: 4507852 Aug 30 02:10 PM Aug 30 02:35 PM	MLB MLB	PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [912] CWS -176 ( ACTION ) [919] LAD -220 ( ACTION )		+128	WIN WIN WIN	08/30/2020 01:22 PM

I've been doing this for a couple years off and on now...

Straight Betting +RL's
Straight Betting +ML's
Parlaying - ML's
Parlaying +RL's
Parlaying - RL's

I stopped betting dogs in both forms especially negative RL's
because they're not a positive strategy whatsoever.
Sure it feels good when you hit a +200 dog but its hit or miss, mostly miss.

I never bet more than I can win on any play EVER.

IMO the plays I posted above are a blueprint for
SUCCESS IF YOU STICK TO IT, which is the hard part.

The best strategy are the -ML's 2 unit risk 2 team parlays as it's quite obvious.

But I still bet the +RL's parlays with 1 unit risk a lil more than occasionally.

To be honest I look at the numbers 1st then look at the teams of said numbers
I like then go from there.

[PAULYPOKER]

Tonight's play was.......

Ticket#:4509452 Sep 01 08:05 PM Sep 01 09:40 PM

Sep 01 01:57 PM

MLB MLB

PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [917] CLE -200 ( ACTION ) [928] LAD -224 ( ACTION )

WIN +117

RL 2 team Parlay would of been good as well @ +244...Shoulda woulda coulda.

[BrickJames]

Lets find out shall we?

Rules are simple.
Bet the runline in baseball for the highest dog price.
1 unit
-20 units will be the end of the thread proving it wont work. DO NOT FOLLOW THIS...Just collecting data for fun

Todays play:

Chicago Whitesox -1.5(+140)

Basically whatever you do the book will slowly chip away your bankroll.

It's all set up to make you feel like you can win, but as the law of large numbers states, you will never beat the juice in the long run.

Keep trying though, lmk when your house goes up for auction and ill swoop in and pick it up cheap.

If your wife's hot I might even let her keep living there. Banging her 3 times a week of course.

[Runeblade]

Basically whatever you do the book will slowly chip away your bankroll.

It's all set up to make you feel like you can win, but as the law of large numbers states, you will never beat the juice in the long run.

Keep trying though, lmk when your house goes up for auction and ill swoop in and pick it up cheap.

If your wife's hot I might even let her keep living there. Banging her 3 times a week of course.

LOL.......

[Runeblade]

Tonight's play was.......

Ticket#:4509452 Sep 01 08:05 PM Sep 01 09:40 PM

Sep 01 01:57 PM

MLB MLB

PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [917] CLE -200 ( ACTION ) [928] LAD -224 ( ACTION )

WIN +117

RL 2 team Parlay would of been good as well @ +244...Shoulda woulda coulda.

Damn....lets see what happens today. Remember guys this is just for shits and giggles. DONT PLAY THESE PLAYS. If anything the data will show what NOT to do lol.

[Runeblade]

if you think there is no juice you are already behind the curve so to speak

The juice is a negative factor against you over time. It's an anchor. There is no negative affect against me over time correct? It's straight up win or lose. I Can win only 45% of my plays and still have a positive gain.

[Runeblade]

9/2/2020 New York Yankees -1.5(+165)

[Sam Odom]

will keep an eye on this

[jjgold]

[Runeblade]

will keep an eye on this

Yeah I'm just killing time. I was bored at work so I thought I would come up with this ridiculousness. It could turn out a total disaster. Who knows.

-20 is the stopping point and it will officially be dead. +200 units and I believe that is enough for it to be proven. IMO

[Runeblade]

9/2/2020 New York Yankees -1.5(+165) LOSS

Rays 5 Yankees 2

Record 0-2 0%

Units -2

[Runeblade]

9/3/2020 New York Yankees -1.5(+140)

[Sam Odom]

will keep an eye on this

[PAULYPOKER]

Yesterday's plays (unquoted)

Ticket #: 4510627 Sep 02 06:40 PM Sep 02 08:10 PM	MLB MLB	PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [955] TOR -109 ( ACTION ) [974] HOU -200 ( ACTION )		+188	WIN WIN WIN	09/02/2020 06:31 PM
Ticket #: 4510633 Sep 02 08:05 PM Sep 02 08:10 PM	MLB MLB	PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [969] CLE -160 ( ACTION ) [974] HOU -200 ( ACTION )		+144	WIN WIN WIN	09/02/2020 06:34 PM

RL's on Hou. and Tor. were no good.
RL on Cle.-1½ -102 was good

Here are a few sample plays...

Ticket #: 4504291 Aug 25 07:10 PM Aug 25 08:05 PM	MLB MLB	PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [958] CLE -172 ( ACTION ) [971] OAK -160 ( ACTION )		+157	WIN WIN WIN	08/25/2020 07:08 PM
Ticket #: 4504292 Aug 25 07:10 PM Aug 25 08:05 PM	MLB MLB	PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [958] CLE -1½+120 ( ACTION ) [971] OAK -1½-110 ( ACTION )		+320	WIN WIN WIN	08/25/2020 07:08 PM

Ticket #: 4504940 Aug 26 06:40 PM Aug 26 08:15 PM

MLB MLB

PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [908] TB -164 ( ACTION ) [920] STL -164 ( ACTION )

+159

WIN WIN WIN

08/26/2020 05:09 PM

Ticket #: 4507852 Aug 30 02:10 PM Aug 30 02:35 PM	MLB MLB	PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [912] CWS -176 ( ACTION ) [919] LAD -220 ( ACTION )		+128	WIN WIN WIN	08/30/2020 01:22 PM

I've been doing this for a couple years off and on now...

Straight Betting +RL's
Straight Betting +ML's
Parlaying - ML's
Parlaying +RL's
Parlaying - RL's

I stopped betting dogs in both forms especially negative RL's
because they're not a positive strategy whatsoever.
Sure it feels good when you hit a +200 dog but its hit or miss, mostly miss.

I never bet more than I can win on any play EVER.

IMO the plays I posted above are a blueprint for
SUCCESS IF YOU STICK TO IT, which is the hard part.

The best strategy are the -ML's 2 unit risk 2 team parlays as it's quite obvious.

But I still bet the +RL's parlays with 1 unit risk a lil more than occasionally.

To be honest I look at the numbers 1st then look at the teams of said numbers
I like then go from there.

Tonight's play was.......

Ticket#:4509452 Sep 01 08:05 PM Sep 01 09:40 PM

Sep 01 01:57 PM

MLB MLB

PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [917] CLE -200 ( ACTION ) [928] LAD -224 ( ACTION )

WIN +117

RL 2 team Parlay would of been good as well @ +244...Shoulda woulda coulda.

[Runeblade]

LOL...starting off a bit slow.....