Another politics thread

[biggie12]

Added $7,000 trump to win 2020 +130

God bless America.

[KnuckleHeadz]

Sharp as always Biggie

[johnnyvegas13]

Good bet

[19th Hole]

BIGGIE looking behind the throng and getting the good number.

[MeanPeopleSuck]

Added $7,000 trump to win 2020 +130

God bless America.

Just FYI in case you want to add more, Trump's trading at +161 at Betfair.

I've actually got a pretty large position on the other side of that bet, but I wish you luck nonetheless.

Plus, we're in agreement on several states: I've got 14k on Trump to win Texas, 8k to win Georgia, 4k to win Iowa and smaller positions for Trump to win Ohio, NC and Arizona. So we won't always be at loggerheads.

[jjgold]

Seems like the sharp side

[MeanPeopleSuck]

Seems like the sharp side

Does it? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

[lakerboy]

Which book?

[jjgold]

Betonline has decent trump odds

Biden was -160
Today

[lakerboy]

Betonline has decent trump odds

Biden was -160
Today

They have+130

[INVEGA MAN]

They say biden going to -200

[Foxx]

Biggie: Sharpest Tool in the Shed

[mngambler]

Does it? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

ya how those polls work out last time around? debates haven't even started, Grandpa Amnesia going to look like a complete donkey live in front of the cameras

[johnnyvegas13]

They say biden going to -200

Who says that

[vitterd]

They say biden going to -200

He should be way higher. Trump has no chance.

[MeanPeopleSuck]

ya how those polls work out last time around? debates haven't even started, Grandpa Amnesia going to look like a complete donkey live in front of the cameras

Agreed, I expect the race to tighten before election day, but there's a national misconception that since '16 was a fluid, back and forth election, therefore '20 has been and will continue to be, too. But the data refutes this. Compare these two pages:

Today, Biden's RCP lead is + 9.5 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

Exactly 4 years ago today Hillary's lead was + 5.8. http://web.archive.org/web/201606211...nton-5491.html

To see the misconception, scroll below the list of polls on both pages to the graph that tracks each race back 1 year from today.

In '16 Trump was constantly catching Hillary in the polls, tying or nearly tying her 7 different times during the year. With a race that fluid, if election day happens to fall during one of Trump's spikes then either candidate could win and that's what happened.

Compare that to the Trump / Biden graph covering the same time period this year: Trump has never once come close to Biden. People's opinions of Trump this time around are much more solidified than they were 4 years ago which has robbed this race of its fluidity. This time around there's no Trump spikes when he almost ties.

So here's the question: since Biden's lead has remained constant through an economic boom and an economic crash and a time with no pandemic and a time with a huge pandemic, then why should we believe ANYTHING is going to change that lead?

I mean, is a debate win really more race changing than the corona pandemic, yes or no, or 44 million new unemployed? History suggests debate wins are blips that vanish fairly quickly. Obama got his ass kicked in the first debate by Romney and Reagan got his ass kicked in his first debate with Carter, but neither made any difference a week after they were over.

[Foxx]

Agreed, I expect the race to tighten before election day, but there's a national misconception that since '16 was a fluid, back and forth election, therefore '20 has been and will continue to be, too. But the data refutes this. Compare these two pages:
Today, Biden's RCP lead is + 9.5 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

Exactly 4 years ago today Hillary's lead was + 5.8. http://web.archive.org/web/201606211...nton-5491.html

To see the misconception, scroll below the list of polls on both pages to the graph that tracks each race back 1 year from today.

In '16 Trump was constantly catching Hillary in the polls, tying or nearly tying her 7 different times during the year. With a race that fluid, if election day happens to fall during one of Trump's spikes then either candidate could win and that's what happened.

Compare that to the Trump / Biden graph covering the same time period this year: Trump has never once come close to Biden. People's opinions of Trump this time around are much more solidified than they were 4 years ago which has robbed this race of its fluidity. This time around there's no Trump spikes when he almost ties.

So here's the question: since Biden's lead has remained constant through an economic boom and an economic crash and a time with no pandemic and a time with a huge pandemic, then why should we believe ANYTHING is going to change that lead?

I mean, is a debate win really more race changing than the corona pandemic, yes or no, or 44 million new unemployed? History suggests debate wins are blips that vanish fairly quickly. Obama got his ass kicked in the first debate by Romney and Reagan got his ass kicked in his first debate with Carter, but neither made any difference a week after they were over.

This post clearly written by a Pro

[jjgold]

what does Biden offer USA??

The silent majority is Trumps best weapon that is never factored in to the odds

[Roscoe_Word]

Feel better about The Donald's chances with Biggie's Backing.

Deplorables will have to pull another upset.

[Brooklyn Dick]

The best weapon Trump has is DeSantis and the other assorted GOP crooks in Florida that will help him steal the state. Whoever wins Forida should win the election.

Don't ever count Trump out. He will do anything to win, and he has a lot of help.

[MrSink]

good odds

[jjgold]

The best weapon Trump has is DeSantis and the other assorted GOP crooks in Florida that will help him steal the state. Whoever wins Forida should win the election.

Don't ever count Trump out. He will do anything to win, and he has a lot of help.

good point and remember all the fake coverage of Trump really did not start until he became Pres so the polls could be another lie or stretched truth

[Goat Milk]

Is Tomlinson the best RB of the 21st century?

[TATUMUS]

Agreed, I expect the race to tighten before election day, but there's a national misconception that since '16 was a fluid, back and forth election, therefore '20 has been and will continue to be, too. But the data refutes this. Compare these two pages:

Today, Biden's RCP lead is + 9.5 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

Exactly 4 years ago today Hillary's lead was + 5.8. http://web.archive.org/web/201606211...nton-5491.html

To see the misconception, scroll below the list of polls on both pages to the graph that tracks each race back 1 year from today.

In '16 Trump was constantly catching Hillary in the polls, tying or nearly tying her 7 different times during the year. With a race that fluid, if election day happens to fall during one of Trump's spikes then either candidate could win and that's what happened.

Compare that to the Trump / Biden graph covering the same time period this year: Trump has never once come close to Biden. People's opinions of Trump this time around are much more solidified than they were 4 years ago which has robbed this race of its fluidity. This time around there's no Trump spikes when he almost ties.

So here's the question: since Biden's lead has remained constant through an economic boom and an economic crash and a time with no pandemic and a time with a huge pandemic, then why should we believe ANYTHING is going to change that lead?

I mean, is a debate win really more race changing than the corona pandemic, yes or no, or 44 million new unemployed? History suggests debate wins are blips that vanish fairly quickly. Obama got his ass kicked in the first debate by Romney and Reagan got his ass kicked in his first debate with Carter, but neither made any difference a week after they were over.

The fault in your logic is that national polls mean nothing. If you want to rely on polls (which to me are useless, as was seen in 2016) you have to analyze them in the sense of the electoral college. A national poll means little if the numbers were taken from major population centers. I haven't analyzed recent "electoral college" polls so I can't speak to which way it is leaning. I'm just saying this has to be considered above and beyond a national poll. National popular vote doesn't count.

[johnnyvegas13]

good odds

not anymore

[topgame85]

Regardless of whether this wins, you almost certainly got a bad number. You also tied your $$$ up for over 5 months. Trump will certainly approach +200 as election day nears. A lot of states in play that weren't last time. If only a few swing Blue Trump is gone. Frankly Trump's only shot, as previously mentioned, is massive voter suppression. Can Republicans pull it off, maybe. Democrats have been losing elections they should win for a long time. There is no such thing as "silent majority". Trump lost the majority vote by millions in '16. At best it is a misnomer for what is White fear of minorities and women not voting in their own interests resulting in razor thin victories in a few critical Electoral College states.

[KnuckleHeadz]

Regardless of whether this wins, you almost certainly got a bad number. You also tied your $$$ up for over 5 months. Trump will certainly approach +200 as election day nears. A lot of states in play that weren't last time. If only a few swing Blue Trump is gone. Frankly Trump's only shot, as previously mentioned, is massive voter suppression. Can Republicans pull it off, maybe. Democrats have been losing elections they should win for a long time. There is no such thing as "silent majority". Trump lost the majority vote by millions in '16. At best it is a misnomer for what is White fear of minorities and women not voting in their own interests resulting in razor thin victories in a few critical Electoral College states.

Frankly I don’t think he’s worried about such a little amount tied up for a few months

[MeanPeopleSuck]

If you want to rely on polls (which to me are useless, as was seen in 2016) you have to analyze them in the sense of the electoral college. A national poll means little if the numbers were taken from major population centers. I haven't analyzed recent "electoral college" polls so I can't speak to which way it is leaning. I'm just saying this has to be considered above and beyond a national poll. National popular vote doesn't count.

Solid post and since I bet a lot of politics I'm happy to discuss the Electoral College prospects at length if anyone's up for it.

The short answer on the EC map right now is this: the battleground state polls tend to be closer than the national polls (so good news for Trump), but the list of battleground states has grown longer as several pink states have become tossups, states like Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and even Texas which is currently polling Biden and Trump tied (so bad news for Trump.)

If interested, here's the basic EC map. To see the most recent polls for any given state, click on it: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...llege_map.html

[biggie12]

Regardless of whether this wins, you almost certainly got a bad number. You also tied your $$$ up for over 5 months. Trump will certainly approach +200 as election day nears. A lot of states in play that weren't last time. If only a few swing Blue Trump is gone. Frankly Trump's only shot, as previously mentioned, is massive voter suppression. Can Republicans pull it off, maybe. Democrats have been losing elections they should win for a long time. There is no such thing as "silent majority". Trump lost the majority vote by millions in '16. At best it is a misnomer for what is White fear of minorities and women not voting in their own interests resulting in razor thin victories in a few critical Electoral College states.

bet more at -125 a month ago and not scared tie up my money. 100% return on investment over 5 months. great !

[Headsterx]

Seaweed would be proud... lol

[sweethook]

you got a good bet

[cincinnatikid513]

this is about the biggest lock u can bet, trump has 0 chance win popular vote

2020 US Presidential Election - Propositions - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
131 Joe Biden wins Popular Vote		-550

[biggie12]

added 5k +152

[MrSink]

I like it

[jjgold]

Biggie send me an ounce