My 1st thread - Posting a tool I developed predictions for week 13

mgcolby · 12-10-19, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by scot4

Appreciate the effort and posting this. Good luck

Thanks

gojetsgomoxies · 12-10-19, 03:11 PM

OP, welcome and thx for posting

as per his cincy-jets erroneous line, i see that line was out there (erroneously).......... so it's not completely OP incompetence...... or was it sarcasm by the person who responded? i can't remember exactly... anyway, there is an erroneous jets/bengals line still being shown on sbrodds from at least one of the sports books.

RudyRuetigger · 12-10-19, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

OP, welcome and thx for posting

as per his cincy-jets erroneous line, i see that line was out there (erroneously).......... so it's not completely OP incompetence...... or was it sarcasm by the person who responded? i can't remember exactly... anyway, there is an erroneous jets/bengals line still being shown on sbrodds from at least one of the sports books.

can we get IP checks in this thread

mgcolby · 12-10-19, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

OP, welcome and thx for posting

as per his cincy-jets erroneous line, i see that line was out there (erroneously).......... so it's not completely OP incompetence...... or was it sarcasm by the person who responded? i can't remember exactly... anyway, there is an erroneous jets/bengals line still being shown on sbrodds from at least one of the sports books.

It wasn't an erroneous line. The picker had the Jets winning big like 31 to 12 or something and with the -3.5 spread on the Jets it had them at a 15 point differential between the live spread and its predicted spread/score. Making it the biggest play on the board. However, it can't account for a healthy Andy Dalton starting over a fledgling rookie that had played the previous four games.

Somethings are just beyond the comprehension of some people.

RudyRuetigger · 12-10-19, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by scot4

It's two separate things. One is every game what his inputted numbers predict. That is the 12-2-1. He wrote he doesn't agree with it always. The three he wrote about have nothing to do with the printout it is his personal opinion and picks.

Originally posted by scot4

Appreciate the effort and posting this. Good luck

you only came in this thread to defend him

so relax bro

we already know

scot4 · 12-10-19, 05:56 PM

Im defending his model and the picks that he has provided. U of all people, you who made a thread to not be a dick to people who post plays, should understand I am defending the fact he came in here with something to give and u have done nothing but be a jerk. Next time leave it alone and say nothing.

stevenash · 12-10-19, 06:41 PM

^
this

Gmen30 · 12-10-19, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

^
this

You're way off base here, Nasher. Guy is a ghost and scammer

scot4 · 12-10-19, 08:10 PM

Gmen claiming I'm this and that and not an ounce to back it up. Get a life jj

mgcolby · 12-10-19, 10:20 PM

Originally posted by Gmen30

You're way off base here, Nasher. Guy is a ghost and scammer

What scam would I be perpetuating exactly? Providing my ATS tool with full transparency for free? I'm starting think your dumbass is Rudy but I really don't give a shit enough. And honestly as amusing as some of this shit has been, I feel like a fool for bantering like a fukking 5 year old with you and the other dipshit that lives in your head.

Forget about that shot. And assuming you are a former Marine, I would imagine the Marines that do hang out at my bar would probably laugh at you.

mjsuax13 · 12-11-19, 12:39 AM

Incredible. Some of these guys aren’t happy no matter the post. Let us not forget... it’s all of us against the bookie/sportsbook.

oChRoNiCo · 12-11-19, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by mgcolby

Here is week 15:

This weeks eye openers:

Titans over the Texans...
Skins over the Eagles
Chargers over the Vikings

Not straight up, but taking the points with the Jets. The picker seems to be over valuing the Jets and undervaluing the Ravens based on the two teams recent competition. With that said, its still 15 points, which is probably within the true spectrum range.

Game	Predicted Score	Predicted Spread	Live Spread	Spread Dif
Jets	17.18	6.41	15	8.59
Ravens	23.59	-6.41

Bears	19.77	0.88	5	4.12
Packers	20.66	-0.88

Patriots	17.02	-1.34
Bengals	15.69	1.34	10	8.66

Seahawks	26.93	-6.23	-5.5	0.73
Panthers	20.70	6.23

Dolphins	25.92	-0.14	3.5	3.64
Giants	25.78	0.14

Texans	22.90	11.94
Titans	34.83	-11.94	-3	8.94

Eagles	19.24	3.40
Redskins	22.64	-3.40	6	9.40

Broncos	23.82	4.93	12	7.07
Chiefs	28.75	-4.93

Buccaneers	27.12	-8.00	-3.5	4.50
Lions	19.12	8.00

Vikings	21.35	2.39
Chargers	23.75	-2.39	2.5	4.89

Jaguars	19.65	1.01	5.5	4.49
Raiders	20.66	-1.01

Browns	30.07	-9.74	-2	7.74
Cardinals	20.34	9.74

Falcons	23.92	4.97	11	6.03
49ers	28.89	-4.97

Rams	20.76	-3.32	3	6.32
Cowboys	17.44	3.32

Bills	19.37	-3.49	1.5	4.99
Steelers	15.88	3.49

Colts	28.26	4.93	8	3.07
Saints	33.19	-4.93

Agree with you on Chargers & Titans
Disagree with you on Ravens, Patriots, 49ers

Interesting model you have here there keep it up and best of luck this weekend!

mgcolby · 12-12-19, 01:31 AM

Originally posted by oChRoNiCo

Agree with you on Chargers & Titans
Disagree with you on Ravens, Patriots, 49ers

Interesting model you have here there keep it up and best of luck this weekend!

Thank you sir. But the way it has gone, since I started posting here again, I am not sure it will happen again. With that said, You are not agreeing, or disagreeing with me. You are disagreeing with the numbers, the stats etc.. I do not have any emotional attachment to this, except when I go bankrupt in my bovada account and I still feel the need to gamble. Then I vicariously live through the picker. Its cool.

oChRoNiCo · 12-12-19, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by mgcolby

Thank you sir. But the way it has gone, since I started posting here again, I am not sure it will happen again. With that said, You are not agreeing, or disagreeing with me. You are disagreeing with the numbers, the stats etc.. I do not have any emotional attachment to this, except when I go bankrupt in my bovada account and I still feel the need to gamble. Then I vicariously live through the picker. Its cool.

I'm only agreeing and disagreeing with the picks your picker provided, vrs my own personal system picks. I could do the entire card, but I have it filtered out to a point where I play the games above a certain amount and don't play the rest of the games. GL I'm always intrigued to see others with systems and see if there is something I could learn to better my own.

cjwatsonfan32 · 12-12-19, 04:07 PM

Have you compared totals to O/U?

mgcolby · 12-12-19, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by cjwatsonfan32

Have you compared totals to O/U?

No, I was just thinking about that the other day. I will start doing that this week. I can add some more columns to account for it. I don't do over/under's much, so I never bothered. When I do, I usually just do the math for the one game.

mgcolby · 12-12-19, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by oChRoNiCo

I'm only agreeing and disagreeing with the picks your picker provided, vrs my own personal system picks. I could do the entire card, but I have it filtered out to a point where I play the games above a certain amount and don't play the rest of the games. GL I'm always intrigued to see others with systems and see if there is something I could learn to better my own.

I would be interested in seeing what you have as well, be interesting to learn if they look at the games differently or similar over all.

oChRoNiCo · 12-13-19, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by mgcolby

I would be interested in seeing what you have as well, be interesting to learn if they look at the games differently or similar over all.

Ok fair enough here is what I have for this week this

NYJ 13 BAL 39
NE 29 CIN 10
TB 22 DET 21
CHI 21 GB 24
HOU 21 TEN 28
DEN 20 KC 31
MIA 11 NYG 14
PHI 19 WSH 15
SEA 23 CAR 17
JAX 9 OAK 13
CLE 19 ARZ 14
MIN 26 LAC 29
LAR 26 DAL 25
ATL 20 SF 34
BUF 22 PIT 24
IND 20 NO 27

mgcolby · 12-15-19, 07:52 PM

Rough week for the picker. Its 4-10 going into SNF, took two bad beats, much like I am sure many on here (Skins & Bears). Hopefully it can squeek out the last two games to lessen the blow a bit.

mgcolby · 12-15-19, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by oChRoNiCo

Ok fair enough here is what I have for this week this

NYJ 13 BAL 39
NE 29 CIN 10
TB 22 DET 21
CHI 21 GB 24
HOU 21 TEN 28
DEN 20 KC 31
MIA 11 NYG 14
PHI 19 WSH 15
SEA 23 CAR 17
JAX 9 OAK 13
CLE 19 ARZ 14
MIN 26 LAC 29
LAR 26 DAL 25
ATL 20 SF 34
BUF 22 PIT 24
IND 20 NO 27

Nice, thanks.

mgcolby · 12-17-19, 11:17 AM

Well the picker had a pooper of a week. I think a little bit is still dribbling down its leg. Had a tough beat in the Bears and Skins games. Would of been 6-9-1 which is mildly better looking than 5-11...ouch. Horseshoes & Grenades as it goes...

Game	Predicted Score	Predicted Spread	Live Spread	Spread Dif	Actual Score	ATS	SU
Jets	17.18	6.41	15	8.59	21	L	W
Ravens	23.59	-6.41			42

Bears	19.77	0.88	5	4.12	13	L	W
Packers	20.66	-0.88			21

Patriots	17.02	-1.34			34	L	W
Bengals	15.69	1.34	10	8.66	13

Seahawks	26.93	-6.23	-5.5	0.73	30	W	W
Panthers	20.70	6.23			24

Dolphins	25.92	-0.14	3.5	3.64	20	L	L
Giants	25.78	0.14			36

Texans	22.90	11.94			24	L	L
Titans	34.83	-11.94	-3	8.94	21

Eagles	19.24	3.40			37	L	L
Redskins	22.64	-3.40	6	9.40	27

Broncos	23.82	4.93	12	7.07	3	L	W
Chiefs	28.75	-4.93			23

Buccaneers	27.12	-8.00	-3.5	4.50	38	W	W
Lions	19.12	8.00			17

Vikings	21.35	2.39			39	L	L
Chargers	23.75	-2.39	2.5	4.89	10

Jaguars	19.65	1.01	5.5	4.49	20	W	L
Raiders	20.66	-1.01			16

Browns	30.07	-9.74	-2	7.74	24	L	L
Cardinals	20.34	9.74			38

Falcons	23.92	4.97	11	6.03	23	W	L
49ers	28.89	-4.97			22

Rams	20.76	-3.32	3	6.32	21	L	L
Cowboys	17.44	3.32			44

Bills	19.37	-3.49	1.5	4.99	17	W	W
Steelers	15.88	3.49			10

Colts	28.26	4.93	8	3.07	7	L	W
Saints	33.19	-4.93			34

					Wins	5	8

Week	W	L	W	L	P	3 under w	3 under L	3 Under P	+3 W	+3 L	+3 P	+4 W	+4 L	+4 P
1
2
3
4
5	7	8	8	7	0	5	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	0
6	10	4	10	3	1	5	2	0	1	0	0	0	2	0
7	7	7	7	7	0	4	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
8	8	7	7	8	0	3	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
9	8	6	6	8	0	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	2	0
10	5	8	8	5	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
11	11	3	9	5	0	4	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0
12	9	5	8	5	1	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
13	7	9	6	10	0	2	5	0	0	1	0	0	1	0
14	14	2	13	2	1	2	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0
15	8	8	5	11	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	3	2	0
16
17
Totals	94	67	87	71	3	36	26	1	2	8	0	9	8	0
WIN PCT	0.58		0.55			0.58			0.20			0.53

Week	+5 W	+5 L	+5 P	+6 W	+6 L	+6 P	+7 W	+7 L	+7 P	8+ W	8+ L	8+ P
1
2
3
4
5	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0
7	1	1	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
8	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0
9	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0
10	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0
11	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
12	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0
13	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	2	0
14	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	0
15	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	3	0
16
17
Totals	9	6	0	7	4	1	5	7	0	16	11	0
	0.60			0.64			0.42			0.59

mgcolby · 12-17-19, 11:19 AM

And without further ado... Week 16 is here. Hopefully the picker can finish out the regular season strong with two winning weeks. Based on winning and losing weeks its 6-4-1 overall.

As usual a few head scratchers:
Bucs over the texans by almost 9 points...
Panthers over the Colts
Cardinals in a virtual tie with the Seahawks
Bills over the Pats

Season:
ATS: 87-71-3 (55%) +8.9 units
SU: 94-67 (58%)

Week 15:
ATS: 5-11
SU: 8-8

Game	Predicted Score	Predicted Spread	Live Spread	Spread Dif
Texans	21.04	8.92
Buccaneers	29.96	-8.92	1	9.92

Bills	19.63	-2.51	6.5	9.01
Patriots	17.12	2.51

Rams	21.08	8.52
49ers	29.61	-8.52	-6	2.52

Panthers	27.99	-1.72	6.5	8.22
Colts	26.26	1.72

Saints	30.32	-1.00
Titans	29.32	1.00	3	2.00

Ravens	31.47	-11.55	-9.5	2.05
Browns	19.92	11.55

Steelers	19.26	-2.70
Jets	16.55	2.70	3	0.30

Bengals	22.31	0.18	1	0.82
Dolphins	22.50	-0.18

Giants	22.10	2.83
Redskins	24.94	-2.83	-2.5	0.33

Jaguars	19.62	11.27
Falcons	30.89	-11.27	-7.5	3.77

Raiders	14.53	9.89
Chargers	24.42	-9.89	-5.5	4.39

Lions	18.85	4.27	7	2.73
Broncos	23.12	-4.27

Cowboys	21.57	0.84
Eagles	22.41	-0.84	2.5	3.34

Cardinals	26.24	0.10	10	9.90
Seahawks	26.34	-0.10

Chiefs	25.28	-7.93	-5	2.93
Bears	17.36	7.93

Packers	21.30	5.59
Vikings	26.89	-5.59	-4	1.59

juicername · 12-17-19, 11:41 AM

You are 24-33 ATS.

mgcolby · 12-17-19, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by juicername

You are 24-33 ATS.

Funny, but because of the nature of the board I guess I'll play. You chimed in with a snarky comment after it had a bad week, which was the first week I posted it here. Then it goes 12-2-1 and you were conspicuously absent from the thread. It has another shit week and you pop back in with this. I linked you to a post on another forum showing the entire year's play. If you do not care to review it, that is fine. If you don't have any use for this that is cool too.

The jackassery here is impressive.

RudyRuetigger · 12-23-19, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by mgcolby

Funny, but because of the nature of the board I guess I'll play. You chimed in with a snarky comment after it had a bad week, which was the first week I posted it here. Then it goes 12-2-1 and you were conspicuously absent from the thread. It has another shit week and you pop back in with this. I linked you to a post on another forum showing the entire year's play. If you do not care to review it, that is fine. If you don't have any use for this that is cool too.

The jackassery here is impressive.

your "system" is a complete fail

i hope sbr is still checking IPs with many in this thread

and i want to laugh at those guys saying wow great job

clown show thread that i win again

wont be a full win til some get banned though

RudyRuetigger · 12-27-19, 05:04 PM

anyone seen this guy?

RudyRuetigger · 12-27-19, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

OP, welcome and thx for posting

as per his cincy-jets erroneous line, i see that line was out there (erroneously).......... so it's not completely OP incompetence...... or was it sarcasm by the person who responded? i can't remember exactly... anyway, there is an erroneous jets/bengals line still being shown on sbrodds from at least one of the sports books.

i would love to know this guys actual thoughts NOW

maybe an apology as well

RudyRuetigger · 12-27-19, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by Otters27

Nice work there

Originally posted by pologq

appreciate the effort and posting your analysis. will take a look.

Originally posted by reigle9

Good deal.

apologies from these guys would be nice as well

scot4 · 12-27-19, 05:17 PM

You're a class act Rudy. Fawkin goof

RudyRuetigger · 12-27-19, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by scot4

You're a class act Rudy. Fawkin goof

Join Date: 11-04-18
Posts: 377

anyone notice how much these trolls love me?

RudyRuetigger · 12-27-19, 05:21 PM

its because i bury them one after the other

jjgold · 12-27-19, 06:06 PM

Most of these usually have a hidden message to some sort of a Tout site or affiliation

deeppckts · 12-27-19, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by mgcolby

Since some folks think starting threads is some kinda pre-requisite to post here. Here is my "system", picker, predictor, spread calculator; haven't come up with a decent name for it. whatever you want to call it.

Ok, I post this weekly along with the results on a team forum, where I post regularly. Its a tool to help pick games, and at times when I have taken a break from betting, a surrogate to live through vicariously.

Its not reinventing the wheel, at its core its a YPP system with some additional twists I added. I made it probably 10 or so years ago. It has done well every year, I'm just not disciplined enough to bet every game (or at times believe its picks) and to follow it religiously, if I did I would win more often.

For the Season (since week 5, its based on the last four games):

ATS: 63-48-2 (57%) +10.2 units
SU: 65-48

Its had two losing weeks by win-losses ATS not by units (8 & 9) and one push week (7).

Its got some interesting picks this week including a game I like (Buffalo), either way take a look for yourself.

I tried to upload this as an image from excel, but it only allows to link to an image. Not sure how to post this or upload it so its in a more readable format. The "live spread" is the opening line, figured its the only fair way to measure its success as I could go line shopping and skew its results. And its also in line with its pick for the game.

Game	Predicted Score	Predicted Spread	Live Spread	Spread Dif
Bears	21.01	-3.55	-1	2.55
Lions	17.46	3.55

Bills	21.64	-3.81	7	10.81
Cowboys	17.83	3.81

Saints	23.66	-2.49
Falcons	21.17	2.49	6.5	4.01

Packers	23.77	1.83
Giants	25.60	-1.83	6.5	8.33

Eagles	21.38	-2.10
Dolphins	19.28	2.10	7.5	5.40

Browns	20.33	-3.19	-1	2.19
Steelers	17.14	3.19

Buccaneers	27.49	-6.75	1	7.75
Jaguars	20.74	6.75

Titans	24.74	0.77	3	2.23
Colts	25.51	-0.77

Redskins	21.78	-0.98	10	10.98
Panthers	20.79	0.98

49ers	22.21	8.36
Ravens	30.57	-8.36	-5.5	2.86

Jets	30.80	-18.93	-3.5	15.43
Bengals	11.87	18.93

Rams	21.99	0.49
Cardinals	22.48	-0.49	3	3.49

Raiders	22.29	2.32	10	7.68
Chiefs	24.61	-2.32

Chargers	20.72	-3.74	-1	2.74
Broncos	16.99	3.74

Patriots	21.93	-3.80	-3.5	0.30
Texans	18.13	3.80

Vikings	26.29	1.72	3	1.28
Seahawks	28.01	-1.72

The only tool in this thread is you.

scot4 · 12-27-19, 09:33 PM

Rudy u douche I told u any amount u wanna put up to prove I'm fake. Ur punkass has done nothing but be a coward a run away from that fact. Do the world a favor and play in traffic

RudyRuetigger · 12-31-19, 12:15 PM

pretty obvious the ghosts in here

im just glad deeppockets posted in here so we can keep them all together