My 1st thread - Posting a tool I developed predictions for week 13

[mgcolby]

Since some folks think starting threads is some kinda pre-requisite to post here. Here is my "system", picker, predictor, spread calculator; haven't come up with a decent name for it. whatever you want to call it.

Ok, I post this weekly along with the results on a team forum, where I post regularly. Its a tool to help pick games, and at times when I have taken a break from betting, a surrogate to live through vicariously.

Its not reinventing the wheel, at its core its a YPP system with some additional twists I added. I made it probably 10 or so years ago. It has done well every year, I'm just not disciplined enough to bet every game (or at times believe its picks) and to follow it religiously, if I did I would win more often.

For the Season (since week 5, its based on the last four games):

ATS: 63-48-2 (57%) +10.2 units
SU: 65-48

Its had two losing weeks by win-losses ATS not by units (8 & 9) and one push week (7).

Its got some interesting picks this week including a game I like (Buffalo), either way take a look for yourself.

I tried to upload this as an image from excel, but it only allows to link to an image. Not sure how to post this or upload it so its in a more readable format. The "live spread" is the opening line, figured its the only fair way to measure its success as I could go line shopping and skew its results. And its also in line with its pick for the game.

Game Predicted Score Predicted Spread Live Spread Spread Dif Bears 21.01 -3.55 -1 2.55 Lions 17.46 3.55 Bills 21.64 -3.81 7 10.81 Cowboys 17.83 3.81 Saints 23.66 -2.49 Falcons 21.17 2.49 6.5 4.01 Packers 23.77 1.83 Giants 25.60 -1.83 6.5 8.33 Eagles 21.38 -2.10 Dolphins 19.28 2.10 7.5 5.40 Browns 20.33 -3.19 -1 2.19 Steelers 17.14 3.19 Buccaneers 27.49 -6.75 1 7.75 Jaguars 20.74 6.75 Titans 24.74 0.77 3 2.23 Colts 25.51 -0.77 Redskins 21.78 -0.98 10 10.98 Panthers 20.79 0.98 49ers 22.21 8.36 Ravens 30.57 -8.36 -5.5 2.86 Jets 30.80 -18.93 -3.5 15.43 Bengals 11.87 18.93 Rams 21.99 0.49 Cardinals 22.48 -0.49 3 3.49 Raiders 22.29 2.32 10 7.68 Chiefs 24.61 -2.32 Chargers 20.72 -3.74 -1 2.74 Broncos 16.99 3.74 Patriots 21.93 -3.80 -3.5 0.30 Texans 18.13 3.80 Vikings 26.29 1.72 3 1.28 Seahawks 28.01 -1.72

[mgcolby]

Here is last week results for some perspective:

Game	Predicted Score	Predicted Spread	Live Spread	Spread Dif	Actual Score	ATS	SU
Colts	24.02	-6.63	3.5	10.13	17	W	L
Texans	17.39	6.63			20
Panthers	15.24	12.99			31	L	W
Saints	28.24	-12.99	-8.5	4.49	34
Dolphins	19.95	0.22	11	10.78	24	L	W
Browns	20.17	-0.22			41
Giants	22.14	-1.35	6	7.35	14	W	L
Bears	20.78	1.35			19
Raiders	22.26	3.99	-3.5	-7.49	3	L	W
Jets	26.24	-3.99			34
Lions	22.15	-4.85	-2.5	2.35	16	L	L
Redskins	17.31	4.85			19
Steelers	26.00	-12.63	-6	6.63	16	0	W
Bengals	13.37	12.63			10
Seahawks	22.20	0.30	3	2.70	17	W	L
Eagles	22.50	-0.30			9
Buccaneers	22.31	2.24	4	1.76	35	W	L
Falcons	24.55	-2.24			22
Broncos	18.05	4.27	5	0.73	3	L	W
Bills	22.32	-4.27			20
Jaguars	20.90	3.14			20	W	W
Titans	24.04	-3.14	-3	0.14	42
Cowboys	22.24	0.66	6	5.34	9	W	W
Patriots	22.89	-0.66			13
Packers	23.69	9.36			8	W	W
49ers	33.05	-9.36	-3	6.36	37
Ravens	27.01	-8.30	-3.5	4.80	45	W	W
Rams	18.72	8.30			6
					Wins	8	9

[Otters27]

Nice work there

[pologq]

appreciate the effort and posting your analysis. will take a look.

[reigle9]

Good deal.

[RudyRuetigger]

ok so basically you are taking jets?


best of luck


keep your nonposted winrate and roi separate

noone cares if you hit 100% of games last week

[mgcolby]

ok so basically you are taking jets?

best of luck


keep your nonposted winrate and roi separate

noone cares if you hit 100% of games last week

You have issues. Taking shit on a message board as serious as you do. And no, you clearly didn't read what I wrote. I put the info in and this spits out the score based on the stats. I don't always agree with it. But I like the Bills and your Jets joke fell to the floor with a thud. And it is posted just not here, but I'm guessing this site is some sort of end all be all for you. The internet is solely here...

And I care are you saying I'm a noone? How ever will I make it through the day...

Now its posted

It is what it is! This is how it broke down week by week...

Week	W	L	W	L	P	3 under w	3 under L	3 Under P	+3 W	+3 L	+3 P	+4 W	+4 L	+4 P
1
2
3
4
5	7	8	8	7		5	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	0
6	10	4	10	3	1	5	2	0	1	0	0	0	2	0
7	7	7	7	7		4	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
8	8	7	7	8	0	3	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
9	8	6	6	8	0	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	2	0
10	5	8	8	5	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
11	11	3	9	5	0	4	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0
12	9	5	8	5	1	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
13
14
15
16
17
Totals	65	48	63	48	2	31	20	0	2	4	0	6	5	0
WIN PCT	0.58		0.57			0.61			0.33			0.55
Week	+5 W	+5 L	+5 P	+6 W	+6 L	+6 P	+7 W	+7 L	+7 P	8+ W	8+ L	8+ P
1
2
3
4
5	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0
7	1	1	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
8	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0
9	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0
10	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0
11	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
12	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0
13
14
15
16
17
Totals	7	5	0	4	3	1	4	4	0	8	6	0
	0.58			0.57			0.50			0.57

[RudyRuetigger]

what are you talking about?

noone cares how you did without plays posted


i said best of luck this week

Jets wasnt a joke, your "line" is 15 points off

why would that not be a play??

[RudyRuetigger]

jets favored by 19 at bengals


and they are -3.5 by your opening line


if you dont think 15.5 point gap is worth a play then something is wrong with your model

[mgcolby]

jets favored by 19 at bengals


and they are -3.5 by your opening line


if you dont think 15.5 point gap is worth a play then something is wrong with your model

Ok, my apologies...I took it as pure sarcasm. The Jets have played well over the last 3 games and the Bengals...are well the Bengals. Yes it would be a play, the way to truly win with this thing would be to bet an even amount on every game each week. I was liking the Bills by 3 before I input this weeks numbers, I like it more now. Just have to be smart with it as well, like backup QB's, key injuries, weather etc...that it can't really account for completely.

[Tanko]

Thanks for post mgcolby.
Hope it continues to hit well.

Do you plan on posting weekly going forward?
Hope so. Would love to see it continue until playoffs.

[2daBank]

the way to truly win with this thing would be to bet an even amount on every game each week.

Are you doing that? Surely there has to be some kind of margin you want off the spread? I wouldn’t wanna bet games where my number is only a point or so off the line. I’d also worry about games where I have a huge margin off the available line. Have you noticed anything w those? Certainly be better to have some filters and not play every game. Just a thought. Gl this week.

[RudyRuetigger]

rookie thread

i mean jets have almost a 5 point gap on 2nd best line

of any other team

clearly the model doesnt work

maybe the picks do work but if i flip a coin and throw a dart, that doesnt mean the coin flip helped me with the dart throw

OK?


the fact jets arent a play means a major red flag

[reigle9]

rudy it's just a fukkin tool like every other model, he doesnt need to blind bet everything it says...nobody does that, well im sure they do but theyre jerkoffs

[2daBank]

rookie thread

i mean jets have almost a 5 point gap on 2nd best line

of any other team

clearly the model doesnt work

maybe the picks do work but if i flip a coin and throw a dart, that doesnt mean the coin flip helped me with the dart throw

OK?


the fact jets arent a play means a major red flag

That is odd. I do think I’ve heard guys that use models be skeptical on ones that so far off but it would make much more sense to me if I trusted it that they would be the biggest play. If not what is the point? Something obviously off if he playing a game with far less perceived value.

[mgcolby]

Are you doing that? Surely there has to be some kind of margin you want off the spread? I wouldn’t wanna bet games where my number is only a point or so off the line. I’d also worry about games where I have a huge margin off the available line. Have you noticed anything w those? Certainly be better to have some filters and not play every game. Just a thought. Gl this week.

No I am not, but it has always finished above
54% for the season. So if I weren't an action junky and did this I would have won every NFL season I've had it. I would think it would have more success at the higher differentials but it's fairly static across the board.

When I created it was intended to just be a tool to see what the straight math shows. And I still use it that way. It can't account for a Driskoll making his first start on the road per se. But when you see a line that looks soft, like the Bucs at Rams earlier this season and this thing is picking the Bucs on the road in LA it makes you stop and think.

[mgcolby]

rudy it's just a fukkin tool like every other model, he doesnt need to blind bet everything it says...nobody does that, well im sure they do but theyre jerkoffs

Thank you!

[2daBank]

No I am not, but it has always finished above
54% for the season. So if I weren't an action junky and did this I would have won every NFL season I've had it. I would think it would have more success at the higher differentials but it's fairly static across the board.

When I created it was intended to just be a tool to see what the straight math shows. And I still use it that way. It can't account for a Driskoll making his first start on the road per se. But when you see a line that looks soft, like the Bucs at Rams earlier this season and this thing is picking the Bucs on the road in LA it makes you stop and think.

Understood. Thanks for sharing.

[mgcolby]

Thanks for post mgcolby.
Hope it continues to hit well.

Do you plan on posting weekly going forward?
Hope so. Would love to see it continue until playoffs.

I can if people find it useful. Honestly I have only posted here this much this week is to keep my mind occupied. Lost a real good friend Sunday and any downtime in the brain allows him to fill it and I am not handling it well.

I do post it weekly on a Pats forum. So at worse I can provide the link.

And thanks.

[reigle9]

saw you post in another thread, stick around...rudy is only happy between 16-20 milllers, any more or less aint pretty

plus once he understands you vote rep he'll stfu lol

[mgcolby]

Ok, tough week for the picker. Had its 3rd losing week of the season. By far its worst week of the season at 4 games under 500%, previous worse was 2 games under, back in week 9.

Either way it ate some shit this week. We'll see how it does in week 14.

Results from week 13:

ATS: 6-10
SU: 7-9

Season:

ATS: 69-58-2 (54%) +5.2 units
SU: 72-57

Game	Predicted Score	Predicted Spread	Live Spread	Spread Dif	Actual Score	ATS	SU
Bears	21.01	-3.55	-1	2.55	24	W	W
Lions	17.46	3.55			20
Bills	21.64	-3.81	7	10.81	26	W	W
Cowboys	17.83	3.81			15
Saints	23.66	-2.49			26	L	W
Falcons	21.17	2.49	6.5	4.01	18
Packers	23.77	1.83			31	L	L
Giants	25.60	-1.83	6.5	8.33	13
Eagles	21.38	-2.10			31	W	L
Dolphins	19.28	2.10	7.5	5.40	37
Browns	20.33	-3.19	-1	2.19	13	L	L
Steelers	17.14	3.19			20
Buccaneers	27.49	-6.75	1	7.75	28	W	W
Jaguars	20.74	6.75			11
Titans	24.74	0.77	3	2.23	31	W	L
Colts	25.51	-0.77			17
Redskins	21.78	-0.98	10	10.98	29	W	W
Panthers	20.79	0.98			21
49ers	22.21	8.36			17	L	W
Ravens	30.57	-8.36	-5.5	2.86	20
Jets	30.80	-18.93	-3.5	15.43	6	L	L
Bengals	11.87	18.93			22
Rams	21.99	0.49			34	L	L
Cardinals	22.48	-0.49	3	3.49	7
Raiders	22.29	2.32	10	7.68	9	L	W
Chiefs	24.61	-2.32			40
Chargers	20.72	-3.74	-1	2.74	20	L	L
Broncos	16.99	3.74			23
Patriots	21.93	-3.80	-3.5	0.30	22	L	L
Texans	18.13	3.80			28
Vikings	26.29	1.72	3	1.28	30	L	W
Seahawks	28.01	-1.72			37
					Wins	6	7

[mgcolby]

Week 14, has some head scratchers, it definitely does not like the Packers lately.

Some of the interesting picks:

Broncos over the Texans
Redskins over the Giants

Game	Predicted Score	Predicted Spread	Live Spread	Spread Dif
Cowboys	16.80	2.67
Bears	19.47	-2.67	2.5	5.17
Lions	23.36	4.40	14	9.60
Vikings	27.76	-4.40
Ravens	27.86	-10.26	-5.5	4.76
Bills	17.60	10.26
49ers	26.98	-5.22	3.5	8.72
Saints	21.76	5.22
Colts	20.31	2.41	3.5	1.09
Buccaneers	22.73	-2.41
Bengals	15.22	7.63	8	0.37
Browns	22.86	-7.63
Broncos	23.60	-1.95	9.5	11.45
Texans	21.65	1.95
Redskins	23.61	-1.95	14	15.95
Packers	21.66	1.95
Panthers	17.91	8.61
Falcons	26.52	-8.61	-2.5	6.11
Dolphins	20.18	9.71
Jets	29.90	-9.71	-6	3.71
Chargers	24.59	-11.84	-3	8.84
Jaguars	12.75	11.84
Titans	27.23	-8.13	-2.5	5.63
Raiders	19.10	8.13
Chiefs	25.52	-6.25	3	9.25
Patriots	19.27	6.25
Steelers	23.66	-5.21	-2.5	2.71
Cardinals	18.44	5.21
Seahawks	23.68	-4.31	-2.5	1.81
Rams	19.37	4.31
Giants	19.52	1.69	8.5	6.81
Eagles	21.21	-1.69

[jjgold]

Keep them coming Colby

Thanks

[juicername]

Everyone's winning until they start documenting their picks. Must just be a coincidence though.

[mgcolby]

Everyone's winning until they start documenting their picks. Must just be a coincidence though.

Again, if you need to lie on the internet to make yourself feel better, you are sorry human.

It is documented, here is an 80+ page thread with the picker and its results every single week this season...feel free to peruse it.
Edit: For your convenience I went back and looked for the 1st post of the picks for this season. It starts at post #845...

https://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/threads/ot-ish-the-gambling-thread.1145294/

Season Results by week and spread differential:

Week	W	L	W	L	P	3 under w	3 under L	3 Under P	+3 W	+3 L	+3 P	+4 W	+4 L	+4 P
1
2
3
4
5	7	8	8	7	0	5	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	0
6	10	4	10	3	1	5	2	0	1	0	0	0	2	0
7	7	7	7	7	0	4	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
8	8	7	7	8	0	3	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
9	8	6	6	8	0	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	2	0
10	5	8	8	5	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
11	11	3	9	5	0	4	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0
12	9	5	8	5	1	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
13	7	9	6	10	0	2	5	0	0	1	0	0	1	0
14
15
16
17
Totals	72	57	69	58	2	33	25	0	2	5	0	5	6	0
WIN PCT	0.56		0.54			0.57			0.29			0.45
Week	+5 W	+5 L	+5 P	+6 W	+6 L	+6 P	+7 W	+7 L	+7 P	8+ W	8+ L	8+ P
1
2
3
4
5	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0
7	1	1	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
8	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0
9	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0
10	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0
11	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
12	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0
13	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	2	0
14
15
16
17
Totals	7	6	0	4	3	1	5	5	0	10	8	0
	0.54			0.57			0.50			0.56

[RudyRuetigger]

saw you post in another thread, stick around...rudy is only happy between 16-20 milllers, any more or less aint pretty

plus once he understands you vote rep he'll stfu lol

bro im giving constructive criticism

[hubie69]

Everyone's winning until they start documenting their picks. Must just be a coincidence though.

This.

[RudyRuetigger]

This.

hubie i called out his 15point spread off by number BEFORE the games were played


where is my credit?


i only get called out in this thread

fukk it

thats why i stopped players advocate

[hubie69]

hubie i called out his 15point spread off by number BEFORE the games were played


where is my credit?


i only get called out in this thread

fukk it

thats why i stopped players advocate

Rudy you know you're right, I know you're right, hell the whole thread knows you're right.

You don't need my validation to be correct, everyone already knows you are.

[RudyRuetigger]

look at results hubie


he might have a good formula to FADE the big favorites according to his spread

[hubie69]

Rudy make a video

[mgcolby]

hubie i called out his 15point spread off by number BEFORE the games were played


where is my credit?


i only get called out in this thread

fukk it

thats why i stopped players advocate

So you think you would do better than what this is doing? That you could go 54% ATS from week 5 on picking every game?

[RudyRuetigger]

pass

do not want you guys jerking off instead of capping

[RudyRuetigger]

So you think you would do better than what this is doing? That you could go 54% ATS from week 5 on picking every game?

posted plays matter

you might be a big timer

but your model was bad so i criticize you at the beginning

you didnt post plays since week 5 so relax

are you trying to get a run, make me look stupid, and then go tout?

ive been here too long for that guy

[mgcolby]

posted plays matter

you might be a big timer

but your model was bad so i criticize you at the beginning

you didnt post plays since week 5 so relax

are you trying to get a run, make me look stupid, and then go tout?

ive been here too long for that guy

I'm not a big timer I do this shit for fun. It had a bad week...nothing more nothing less.

I have posted this since week 3, link was provided if you care to check. I am relaxed. I have no reason to get excited on an anonymous message board.

No, I am not trying anything, I just know for a fact, no gambler on this forum or pretty much anywhere would go 54% ATS playing every NFL game every week. So you can criticize it if you want, but that is its current record after 9 weeks this season. If you think you can do better, than sure, use the mirage open line and pick every game the rest of the year and see if you do better...its not a challenge I personally would take, but if you are feeling froggy have at it. I was simply asking if you thought you could do that over the past 9 weeks. We both know the answer.

I Have no desire to make people look stupid, I find most people are more than capable of doing that on their own. I have no reason to tout on the internet or in life in general, I find being humble is usually the best course of action.

And yet I've been here longer so what is your point? Is that some kinda status symbol?