~ Capy's 2019 Book-Destroyer Football Thread ~

[Capybara]

The only thing holding me back from tease/ml parlay is it's so square it scares the begeezuz out of me.

Yup. So square that it's making me throw up in my mouth a little. And yet I can't help but kind of love it.

[2daBank]

Yup. So square that it's making me throw up in my mouth a little. And yet I can't help but kind of love it.

I have got my clock cleaned all playoffs teasing cause one these fukkin favs. 1st saints. Then ravens. Going back to the fukkin well one more time with ya!!! Lol. Also played the over in kc and under in San Fran, plus laid the points w niners. Gl brother.

[Capybara]

I have got my clock cleaned all playoffs teasing cause one these fukkin favs. 1st saints. Then ravens. Going back to the fukkin well one more time with ya!!! Lol. Also played the over in kc and under in San Fran, plus laid the points w niners. Gl brother.

Good job, Banker!

You know the "And all I got was this lousy t-shirt" joke? That's how I feel right now. Yesterday I wrote about KC, over 51.5, and KC TT over 30.5. All three cash but all I played was this lousy teaser!!

[Capybara]

While I like both faves a fair amount, I'm nervous that one of the two won't come through, so have opted to handle it in as square a way possible with this teaser:

Chiefs -1/ Niners -2, -110 (2x)

LFG!

I may have more stuff, but so far just that.

Well, I left tons of money on the table not playing the faves I liked, nor the team total overs, nor the KC game over, but whatever, can't complain when you win! Two easy units on the teaser!

Updated thread record: 138-122, +13.50x.

[Capybara]

Figured I'd chime in with my Super Bowl thoughts so far, and also welcome any discussion if anyone would like to get some going in here.

Been leaning San Fran from day one, and doubt I'll verge from that.

Niners have been the most complete team in the NFL pretty much all season. Quietly so, but they have been. They're not going to lose too many games in the trenches, and they've gotten it done on the back end as well, and on offense they can attack either way. The fact that Jimmy G hasn't thrown much in the postseason is meaningless. He hasn't because they haven't needed him to. Sure, he's prone to a mistake here and there, but he's plenty efficient, and more than capable of comeback mode when needed.

Now of course there's the issue of the best player in the NFL wearing a KC uniform. And this is why I feel almost a little better with a FIRST HALF play on the Niners. As complete as San Fran is, eventually Mahomes will figure out some stuff that works for matriculating the ball down the field, assuming he's been stifled for a while.

If I had to guess how this game plays out, I see it as a first half under and a first half San Fran, with the game total and the game side being closer to coin flips, but I'll probably still be on San Fran full game anyway, as I have to put my money on the better team, which they are.

I'm going to be digging deeper into matchups, so that I can find some values on player props also.

And I'll be on a couple of the slightly siller ones, as some of those have surprising value, like for instance First Score is a FG, or Team X first score is a FG, or First Score is a Team X FG. Whichever. For one thing, SF tightens in the red zone and KC often fails in the red zone, and secondly the prices for these are a little off compared to how often drives result in FG's.

I'll probably end up wagering at least 5 to 7 units. Would be nice to close things out here at +20x, which is where the thread was sitting for so long.

So, what are the rest of you thinking? Banker, Manster, Alamo, Madison, Harry, etc.?

[Capybara]

All right, the day is here... been going over this thing backwards and forwards, and will still be going over it for another three hours...

The bottom line is that it is a really great matchup, and all the lines are pretty spot-on now, including all the props. It's hard to find value...

I'm probably going to add at least a few more plays, because this is IT, and there are a ton of TEMPTING ones...

But for now at least, I'm on these:

Niners 1H ML, +100 (1.5x)

Niners ML, +110 (1x)

Mahomes over 32.5 rushing yards, -120 (1x)

I'm almost definitely going to add some "Player X scores a TD," and maybe another one or two receptions or yardage over/unders. Won't be trying any of the "silly" ones.

More to come...

[Hman]

GL Cap

[Capybara]

GL Cap

Thanks, boss...

Okay, let's continue with a few more:

Niners net yardage over 379.5, -110 (1x)

Mostert to score a TD, -135 (0.5x)

D. Williams to score a TD, -110 (0.5x)

Up to six plays now... Shall we add a few more?

[Capybara]

My bad, Mostert to score a TD is a FULL unit play, not a half... Maybe one or two more to come... A good day gets us to +20x! (A bad day, ehh, we don't talk about that.)

[Capybara]

Adding these two dumb ones whose value seems off to me:

First score is a SF field goal, +420 (0.5x)

First score is a KC field goal, +370 (0.5x)

Tempted to go larger... how often does this game start 3-0??? Nervous teams, defenses throwing wrinkles, etc...

[Capybara]

Just to clean the thread up, here are today's plays all in one place (with unit corrections also):

Niners ML, +110 (1.5x)

Niners 1H ML, +100 (1.5x)

Mahomes over 32.5 rushing yards, -120 (1x)

Niners net yardage over 379.5, -110 (1x)

Mostert to score a TD, -135 (1x)

D. Williams to score a TD, -110 (0.5x)

First score is a SF field goal, +420 (0.5x)

First score is a KC field goal, +370 (0.5x)

[Capybara]

Cash bet #1. +420 my ass.

[Capybara]

Cash bet #2, Mostert TD. Let’s keep em coming here!

[Capybara]

Cash bet #3, Mahomes over rushing.

[Capybara]

Cash bet #4, Williams TD.

[alexknyc]

Did bet #3 cash? Mahomes ended up with 28 yards rushing after that last series.

[Capybara]

Did bet #3 cash? Mahomes ended up with 28 yards rushing after that last series.

Oh, shit. I hate when that happens.

[Capybara]

Wow... was just tallying up and happy with my two units of profit...

But Alex K correctly points out that Mahomes moved BACKWARDS 15 yards in the final series on KNEEL DOWNS, lol. I hate that horseshit, but that's gambling! Instead of ahead two units, we finish the day minus 0.20 juice. Oh well.

Still a positive season!

Hope the thread provided a little something this year. Already looking forward to next season.

FINAL thread record: 141-126, +13.30x.

[Capybara]

It just dawned me I could actually keep this thing going with the XFL!

What do you boys think? Keep the train a-rollin’? Cash some more tickets?

[Capybara]

All right, LFG.

Thread record: 141-126, +13.30x.

Tampa Bay/ Seattle under 43, EV (1x)

[Capybara]

Easy casher.

Updated thread record: 142-126, +14.30x.

[Capybara]

Dallas -5.5, -105 (1x)

[Capybara]

Cash another. Nice to have football still! That even turned into an entertaining game.

Thread record: 143-126, +15.30x.

[wildcats99]

Wow. Great job Capy!

[Capybara]

Los Angeles +8.5, -110 (1.5x)

[Capybara]

Hope anyone tailed this one. I sprinkled the ML too! We stay perfect in the XFL.

Thread record: 144-126, +16.80x.

[Hman]

Nice work Cap

[pimike]

Los Angeles +8.5, -110 (1.5x)

Good Job!

I’ll be keeping an eye on your XFL plays..

[Capybara]

3-0 in the XFL so far, can we stay perfect??

New York +8, -110 (1x)

This one is a little frightening because New York has not been good and LA looked terrific last week. However, I feel like these lines are overadjusting. LA goes from an 8-point home dog to an 8-point road fave?? Their D is still pretty bad statistically even if they're getting nice QB play from Josh Johnson. I feel like NY might have found something late last week. You also have the LA traveling east into the cold, and the time change angle. NY is worth a shot for a unit.

[Capybara]

Boom.

4-0, kids.

Thread record: 145-126, +17.80x.

No play for the second game today. Gun to head I'd take the points with Seattle.

[Capybara]

Houston/Dallas over 51.5, -105 (1x)

These are your two best teams, in my opinion, with two strong offenses. Let’s get some of those 2- and 3-point conversions and get this thing over!

In the second game, I do lean to Tampa Bay at home, but don’t want to start getting greedy with multiple-play days. We’ll see. Also it seems like I might get a better number waiting.

Good luck today!

[Capybara]

Couldn't quite squeeze out the over yesterday, thought we had it.

And I was dead on with Tampa Bay. With just one problem: my phone had died by 7:00 EST and I wasn't at home! Rookie mistake right there, and anyway I should have just fired before that. DC is a mess.

Thread record: 145-127, +16.75x.

[Capybara]

All right, here we go with XFL Week 5.

Tampa Bay/ Los Angeles over 40.5, -105 (1x)

Leans: New York/ Dallas under 37... Los Angeles -2. Just the one official play so far. Let's keep cashin'.

[Hman]

GL Cap

[Capybara]

I was going to leave just the one play above, but "scared money don't make money," as they say, so fukk it, let's roll...

New York +6.5, -105 (1x)

I liked this at +7, then lost the 7, and now I see the 6.5 is going away at many books too. I don't think Dallas is the same team without Landry Jones. They do have a good running game and I expect will lean on it, but NY should be focused on stopping that, and I liked what I saw from Perez at QB for New York last week. I see them having some success through the air, so give me the points, thanks... I sort of want to fire on this under too, and may.

Seattle +12.5, -110 (1x)

Can't say I'm crazy confident on this one, but it's pull out all the stops time for Jim Zorn. I really don't think they're that bad, and I think we're still seeing overinflated lines. They've showed something at times, especially if they hand the reins to BJ Daniels, who can use his legs and keep a D honest. Yes, Houston is very good, but on the other hand, it's too soon to say that any of these teams is THAT much better than any other. They're also a little dinged up. So I'll grab all those points and thanks again.

So for now, these two plays, and the Tampa/LA over for tomorrow. Let's get it.