Are there now too many anti-public bettors?

[imgv94]

Have noticed a lot of people who like to bet against the public all the time. Haven't noticed them picking anymore winners than anyone else either..

Starting to believe the books welcome these guys who bet against obvious plays.. Keeps things balanced.

All you keep reading in these threads is things like this:

"Don't know about this play, public is all over them and that scares me"

"Public is 80% on this team that scares me" "Too public"


Remember the sharp play is the play that wins.. Would rather be a square who hits 56% of the time then a sharp who is a 50% handicapper..

[primo_skillz]

The public should not affect how an individual bets. I think the general "public" is becoming more informed, with sites such as the one I am now posting on.

[VegasDave]

I think the reason it evens out is the fact that people will bet against the public just to do it, without any real reason.

If I analyze a play and love it, and I'm in the big minority, I'm fine with that.

If I'm part of a big majority, I'll re-evaluate the game to make sure I'm not overestimating the team I'm betting or underestimating the team I'm betting against, as is usually the case when betting is lopsided.

Sometimes the majority is wrong, and the bettors that take comfort in being part of the majority make it even MORE of a majority, and make the minority a safe bet.

But betting Notre Dame, disregarding their lack of team speed and how they had been manhandled my teams like SC and Mich, simply to bet against the majority? I wouldn't have considered that a strong play.

Majority/Minority is something to take into consideration, but I agree with you, it certainly doesn't make a bet.

[Razz]

You couldn't be more wrong, at least in the sports I bet primarily. Dogs hit around 57% this year in the NFL - it was my best year from a percentage standpoint ever - and college basketball public plays are getting killed.

[jjgold]

Really no such thing anymore as a public play, everyone trying so many different systems nowadays and lopsided action does not mean a public play, maybe way more sharper people than we think analyzing all angles.

[imgv94]

You couldn't be more wrong, at least in the sports I bet primarily. Dogs hit around 57% this year in the NFL - it was my best year from a percentage standpoint ever - and college basketball public plays are getting killed.

Just cause dogs hit 57% doesn't mean they weren't public plays my friend..

Jets +9 is a very public play this week..

Would love to see someone post the anti public plays in any sport and see how they do..

Bet it won't be anymore impressive then any category of plays..

Let's track it and see how it does..

[imgv94]

Notre Dame/LSU was a perfect example.. I challenged the Notre Dame bettors to give me a logical reason as to why they liked ND I'm still waiting for one..

Had people telling me ND was the sharp play and the public was too much on LSU..

ND 14 LSU 41

Thank you...

[Razz]

Just cause dogs hit 57% doesn't mean they weren't public plays my friend..

I agree, but I'd estimate that the public is on 90% of the favorites.

[Razz]

Notre Dame/LSU was a perfect example.. I challenged the Notre Dame bettors to give me a logical reason as to why they liked ND I'm still waiting for one..

No, people gave you reasons, and you ignored them.

[Dark Horse]

College football and basketball have more room for this type of analysis. Much harder for bettors and books to keep track of everything. I pay attention when the majority of bettors is on one side, and the line moves in the other direction. That's as good as a guarantee that sharp money is behind the line movement.

In general, if you start paying too much attention to side stuff, pretty soon you suffer from information overload and you lose your edge.

[imgv94]

Razz I believe your not understanding me here man.. When I mean person who is fading public I'm meaning someone who is lazy and doesn't put any work into these games and says

"Fvck it the public is on this play so I'm going to fade it"

Razz I know you like anti-public plays but there has been a few times where you agreed with the public? Right?

[Razz]

Yeah, the only sport where I only minimally cap games and concentrate on fading the public is the NFL.

I don't really think LSU was a huge public play, for what it's worth.

[imgv94]

College football and basketball have more room for this type of analysis. Much harder for bettors and books to keep track of everything. I pay attention when the majority of bettors is on one side, and the line moves in the other direction. That's as good as a guarantee that sharp money is behind the line movement.

In general, if you start paying too much attention to side stuff, pretty soon you suffer from information overload and you lose your edge.

Another solid DH post..

[imgv94]

Yeah, the only sport where I only minimally cap games and concentrate on fading the public is the NFL.

I don't really think LSU was a huge public play, for what it's worth.

You might be right.. I heard 58% of public was on LSU.. Still shocked you didn't bet your whole account on LSU the other night when just two months you and I were on the phone talking about how LSU could beat Ohio St..

[Razz]

You might be right.. I heard 58% of public was on LSU.. Still shocked you didn't bet your whole account on LSU the other night when just two months you and I were on the phone talking about how LSU could beat Ohio St..

I made the line 5. I said before the game LSU was as good as anybody, but there's no way I could bet a game that I thought there was absolutely no value in. Honestly, after watching the game, I'm still don't think there was any value with LSU.

[VegasDave]

Wheres the best place to see where the public action is going?

Or do you all just gauge boards and line movement?

[Razz]

http://sportsinsights.com

You have to create an account, but this is probably the most accurate. I consider "public plays" when the pub is 55% on the dog or 75% on the favorite.

Siena is a big public play tonight.

[Dark Horse]

A nice feature for SBR Odds?

[dave11486]

http://sportsinsights.com
You have to create an account, but this is probably the most accurate. I consider "public plays" when the pub is 55% on the dog or 75% on the favorite.

Siena is a big public play tonight.

Line movement has favored Siena big time tonight. I got on at +4. What is your play Razz?

[Dark Horse]

The kind of line movement you want to look for would be against the flow.

For instance, if a team started out as 1 pt favorite, had 70% of the action, yet ended up as a 2 pt dog. Fading that team would be the play.

[Razz]

Line movement has favored Siena big time tonight. I got on at +4. What is your play Razz?

No play. Good luck.

[imgv94]

The kind of line movement you want to look for would be against the flow.

For instance, if a team started out as 1 pt favorite, had 70% of the action, yet ended up as a 2 pt dog. Fading that team would be the play.

LOL Marquette yesterday...

[bigboydan]

A nice feature for SBR Odds?

I think it would be a great addition if it could be done.

[bigboydan]

Razz I believe your not understanding me here man.. When I mean person who is fading public I'm meaning someone who is lazy and doesn't put any work into these games and says

"Fvck it the public is on this play so I'm going to fade it"

Razz I know you like anti-public plays but there has been a few times where you agreed with the public? Right?

You can't go about capping that way at all. It has nothing to do with being lazy at all though. I would rather fade an ice cold capper or a red hot one oppose to using that method your referring too.

Public consensus numbers are a great guide though to find out exactly where exactly the money is on a game, however it's not always public money with those numbers either.

I still say cap the games like you normally would, and maybe use the consensus numbers as a guide in order to maybe help you narrow down your possible plays for the night.

[dave11486]

The consensus numbers are a great guide I agree.

[Dark Horse]

LOL Marquette yesterday...

lol.

I wasn't even checking last night, but a kind gambler posted three of these plays on another forum. They went 3-0. I think they're something like 29-15 for the season.

[dave11486]

lol.

I wasn't even checking last night, but a kind gambler posted three of these plays on another forum. They went 3-0. I think they're something like 29-15 for the season.

Wait, are you saying someone played the +1 dog and went 29-15 or am I missingthe point.

[Dark Horse]

You go with the sharp money. See example in post #20 of this thread.

[bigboydan]

You go with the sharp money. See example in post #20 of this thread.

Bingo bro

That sums it up beautifully really.

[Ganchrow]

This is a rather interesting article related to the topic of square vs. sharp money:

hxxp://www.coversexperts.com/includes/article_ce.aspx?ce=20087&ur=6469

[VegasDave]

http://sportsinsights.com
You have to create an account, but this is probably the most accurate. I consider "public plays" when the pub is 55% on the dog or 75% on the favorite.

Siena is a big public play tonight.

Thanks Razz

[sergfro]

http://sportsinsights.com
You have to create an account, but this is probably the most accurate. I consider "public plays" when the pub is 55% on the dog or 75% on the favorite.

Siena is a big public play tonight.

SBR thats a good idea to look into

something similiar to sportsinsights where they give the percentage of pubic bets on each game. Some websites have it (sportsbook.com, caribsports) but I would like to see the action on the top sportsbooks you guys have advertised....i'm sure you guys can get something going with your top advertised books

[rob]

This is a rather interesting article related to the topic of square vs. sharp money:

hxxp://www.coversexperts.com/includes/article_ce.aspx?ce=20087&ur=6469

Interesting read. Thanks.

[The HG]

The prominence of the conference also matters. The line movement in the Siena game I see as more telling than the same kind of movement would be in a game from a major conference.

[RickySteve]

This is a rather interesting article related to the topic of square vs. sharp money:

hxxp://www.coversexperts.com/includes/article_ce.aspx?ce=20087&ur=6469

When I type this into my interweb superhighway Netscape thingy, it doesn't work. Please help.