Today was chalk city in MLB I just hit an 11 team parlay

[KVB]

Big Bear makes $50 11 teamers.

I wouldn't have figured such.

Yeah, a public day for sure yesterday, The Contrarian Fund went 0-4.

Nice Work Big Bear!!

[b1slickguy]

[KVB]

In the month of May, MLB favorites have gone 130-68 for +19.37 units.

In light of that figure and despite having an 0-5 day and yesterday's 0-4 this month so far, the Contrarian Fund has managed to only be down about 5 units in May....that's 61 plays

I have to be happy about that.

[jjgold]

Bear what will you be doing with the money??

[LT Profits]

Bear what will you be doing with the money??

[kingdom]

Fuking Reds in 10. I hit mine too but had Cubs +3. $25 6 teamer paid around $240

i would love to see this ticket. cubs +3? i used to bet +2.5 parlays in hockey often. did u bet this at 5 dimes? and to op to bet reds, nats, and giants in same parlay and they come thru is amazing in itself. congrats.

[chalkman777]

[19th Hole]

[KVB]

In the month of May, MLB favorites have gone 130-68 for +19.37 units.

LT tends to do this in his threads as well but there is no point posting the win loss record when dealing with MLB moneylines, the Units are useful though.

Let's make the record somewhat useful by comparing the win loss in the month of May to years past.

Let's use the entire month of May historically, to give context and to see if we are on pace, above, or behind any sort of extrapolation or if we can create an expectation...

My database is slightly different than LT's in terms of units but the way he presents the numbers sounds like a SI or betting lab type result. The numbers are close enough.

This month the favorites are winning at a 66% clip.

One thing I notice going back about 6 years is the May tends to start out one direction, then end up the other way by month's end.

For many years it looks like betting the favorite in May was profitable, very much so with some big up years about a decade ago.

Then in 2012 there was a crash. 50 units were lost before about a 10 units comeback. The record for favorites was less than 52%

Sine then betting favorites has gone downhill at a slower pace with a few extreme moves like this year.

In 2015 favorites were up nearly 20 Units by mid May and finished down about 7 units with a 55% win rate.

In 2016 there was much more of roller coaster, not so extreme until the end. Favorites went from down 3 units to up about 5 to close to even before the middle of the month. Then there was a 19 unit run to close the month out up about 17 units to finish the month at 61% winners.

In 2017 Favorites dropped 8 units then gained back 8 units the first week of May before dropping almost 23 units over 2 weeks. Favorites finished down about 14 units with a win percentage of about 57%.

In 2018 favorites were terrible, dropping 35 units in the first 3 weeks. There was a 10 unit comeback and favorites finished down about 25 units winning at about 55%.

Because of the 60 units rise over the decade before 2012, when you include this months favorite run so far, my entire database has the favorites down about 5-7 units, depending on the closer.

Not including this year my database has the overall win percentage in May over the last 15 years to be about 56.7%

Year	Win %	Units
2012	52%	-40
2013	57%	-9
2014	56%	-4
2015	55%	-7
2016	61%	17
2017	57%	-14
2018	55%	-25
Total		-82

2019's May has a good start for the favorites.

In 2007 the the favorites were up 30 units by the end of May, and finished up 20 overall. That year the favorites won at a 61% clip.

A lot of units are to be made when that win percentage is over 60% for the favorites in May and if we are looking at cycles we could be seeing a second six year cycle help bring those favorites back into positive units for May. Generally though, these ups and down cycles are often seen going the other way in different months each year so that the larger numbers tend to balance out.

The Contrarian Fund, which overall tracks with the contrarian market was up almost 40 units during this 6 year May favorites crash...

2012	25
2013	-7
2014	8
2015	1
2016	-5
2017	21
2018	-4
Total	39

One conclusion to draw is that the favorites near term are likely to give up units and win percentage but that trend, while likely to start now, doesn't not have to hold for the full of the next two weeks.

Hopefully that near term expectation results in profit for the contrarian markets in general and the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund.

I suppose we'll have to wait and see.

[paco]

Good job bear.

I been telling guys that chalk city is gold mine mlb lately