Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
-
lines on a per game basis are not efficient of course. but that is like saying the weather man is an idiot because you predicted 77 today and it was 55 even though he predicted 77 over the last 25 years and the average temp was 77.3Comment -
Answer itOriginally posted by TechnicalTraderComment -
How many times did the actual result of the game come close to the books closing line?Comment -
the first one is
the fave this year and it shows the overall line was nearly perfect
the line was 5.8 and they won by 5.9 overall
the second line I am not exactly sure what you are trying to show me, can you just tell meComment -
the weather example was perfect for you read it againOriginally posted by TechnicalTrader
the goal of the line is not to predict the score it is to get even money on both sides of the coin.
you have a coin flip if the line is +100 +100 is it now wrong because heads won 591 out of 1000 times? is the line not efficient when it says its 50-50 even though heads won 57% of the time or whateverComment -
you cant take a huge pile of data and pick a few things out of it and use that as evidence of the whole data being bad. The line is NOT perfect it is just the closest and most accurate thing we have to predict the outcome of a game.Comment -
Out of 544 games played this season, the ATS results landed within +/-2 points of the spread only 95 times. Only 17.5% of the games played. Do you consider that efficient, Dan?Originally posted by danshan11Comment -
I'll show you how inefficient the books lines are in any sport, over an entire season.Originally posted by danshan11Comment -
do you consider this efficient
ATS:14159-13813-558 (-0.35, 50.6%) avg line: -6.2
O/U:13956-14033-541 (0.37, 49.9%) avg total: 197.0
over 30,000 games they won by 6 and the avg line was 6 AND THAT IS ON OVER 30000 GAMES!
read the weather thing againComment -
18% is accurate?Originally posted by danshan11Comment -
How often did they come within 2 points?Originally posted by danshan11Comment -
if you take dice and roll them 10000 times you think it will average exactly 6? so does that mean 6 is not efficient because of all the times they landed on 12 or 2Comment -
Why do you continue to compare sportsbetting to dicw rolling?Originally posted by danshan11Comment -
because I think the dice rolling clarifies the thought process. it makes it easier to see the flaws in it.
answer the questionComment -
and BTW really enjoy the conversation with you, I wish more people would chime in but most of them are sick of my persistent line preaching.Comment -
Well, I don't. So why should I use dice rolling as a comparison I'm not going to comment on that. Same thing with predicting weather, why would you compare that to sportsbetting?Originally posted by danshan11Comment -
I find it curious that you wont answer the dice question.Comment -
Nobody enjoys discussing anything with you. It's like teaching algebra to a 3 year old, or trying to teach an ape how to fly a cessna.Originally posted by danshan11Comment -
Holy sh/t, are you serious? I refuse. To answer the dice question because I dice rolling is not sportsbettingOriginally posted by danshan11Comment -
oh no doubt I am one of the dumbest people here. I have never doubted that or disputed that.Comment -
why cant you answer the dice question? who cares if it has anything to do with sports or notOriginally posted by TechnicalTraderComment -
Then why dispute with so much confidence? Possible troll?Originally posted by danshan11Comment -
Go to www.idiotswhodiscussdicerollingodds.com and talk dice rolling thereOriginally posted by danshan11Comment -
why are you trying to insult me, I was trying to have a conversation with you and you just insult me over and over.Comment -
I'm. Not insulting you, just trying to point you in the right direction. I'm sure you'll find a place where people enjoy discussions about dice rolling odds.Originally posted by danshan11Comment -
you are trying to point me in the right direction on what?
you believe line is not efficient and I say that is not true
you ask me some question about ATS margin and how the line is off very often ats and I tell you that is the same as saying 50-50 on a 6 over under in dice is wrong because there are lots of 2s and 12s
you say this is not a dice discussion and puss out because you cannot answer the question and in reality the question proves you dont know shit about this. you said its like teaching a 3yo and teaching an ape, and told me to go to idiots dice and you dont think those are insults, maybe another example of another area where you are completely wrong.
reality check brother the line is efficient as fukk. tons of things prove it and because the line does not accurately predict the outcome of games within a certain point number you somehow have construed that makes the line overall not efficient.
individual games the line is not always efficient, I have stated that before and will again but overall the line is efficient.Comment -
Why are you trying to insult me?Originally posted by danshan11
Answer this question: If a highway is built in 35 years does that make it more or less efficiant than a driveway which was built in two hours?Comment -
well i refuse to answer that question on the grounds what does highway design have to do with sports betting LOL, no really I dont see the connection to our other questions in this question and really I would not have the answer in anyway shape or form.Originally posted by TechnicalTraderComment -
why cant you answer the highway question? who cares if it has anything to do with sports or notOriginally posted by danshan11Comment -
and BTW really enjoy the conversation with you, I wish more people would chime in but most of them are sick of my persistent line preaching.Comment -
the relation of the dice question is the obvious answer that 6 is the over under for dice, who can dispute that, but your argument about sports betting basically says because some times the number 2 or 12 comes out and it is not always 6 every time that this somehow means that 6 is a bad number for an OU. I do not care about dice and this is not a dice question change dice for bananas if it makes you more comfortable. the thing with dice is provides some level of certainty where in sports sometimes that can be cloudy. if we assume that an over under avg line is 199 and the avg points scored is 199.1 on a huge sample size, would games that the score is 170 or 220 now prove that the number of 199 is wrong? we all probably agree that the line IS NOT sharp on every single game. We probably ALL agree that the line is OVERALL sharp over the long haul. now what does this mean
this means if we just blindly bet the Bulldogs over 1000 games we would overall lose the juice
this means also if we picked spots and bet where we seen line errors or not yet corrected lines we would probably beat the line and win overall.
Line Bias is real and their is data to support it, line bias means that a line might be +2 when it should be +3 but because its a certain team in a certain spot it will never get to +3 ,
but overall for that certain team the line will compensate and come back to overall efficient.
Yankees as a HD over the last 10 years they have never covered the line because of line bias! When the Yankees are HD people bet the shit out of them and create line bias. so Yankees as HD in most cases that line is not efficient but overall the Yankees lines are efficient.Comment -
I cant answer the highway question cause I dont know what the hell it means or the connection to our conversationOriginally posted by TechnicalTrader
lets look at the question alone
highway built in 36 years is less efficient than a driveway built in 2 hours. How are they connected and in what way would I determine the efficiency. I would need to know the length, have historical data, amount of equipment used, avg time to build a comparable, all kinds of data but besides all that jazz, WHAT THE HELL DOES THIS QUESTION HAVE TO DO WITH THE PRICE OF RICE IN CHINA?Comment -
I am not a statistician but I would argue that you cant randomly pick certain things out of a dataset and that destroys the whole data set. back to the dice LOL if you had 3 walls eeverything identical surface wall dice and you threw them at the 3 walls and tracked the data you would most certainly have very similar results but you of course would have deviations that some may think are signals and not noise, when i think most advanced people would see them all as noise or somehow an outside factor that was not assessed.Comment -
how would you judge that? could you give confidence intervals?.......... 2 points is very tight to the spread...Originally posted by TechnicalTrader
at the very least, can you present the standard deviation of points of the NBA games this season...
the NBA betting market is to a large degree efficient. people either have no clue about that or are trying to find little pockets of value around thatComment -
haven't read the whole thread. but i think most things i've read are correct. it's a combo of things.
the combo would go something like ----->.... young team that has improved alot. young teams usually have focus problems. also, when the team gets good, the fans and HFA advantage becomes much bigger (and HFA i think is mostly 4th quarter phenomenon, assuming it's not huge time zone shift).... all this ties into the mile high phenom too. denver = young (more fit) and games are much more intense now.
raptors have been good for a long time now. but up until recently, so many home wins were locking things down from about the mid 3rd quarter onwards.Comment
