the thing to me is this
yes the Nuggets right now are outscoring their opponents in the 4th qtr but I would probably more account that to variance and of course to the improved performance of the nuggets this season. I think to say it is because they are at high altitude and that is the reason would mean we need to assume, the whole betting market is not aware of this and that if for any other reliable reason they have not caught on yet. I think both of those are hard to believe. the nuggets have always played at altitude and the past years data does not support them outplaying people in the 4th qtr. Altitude stayed the same but the scoring has not. the Nuggets are a better team and better teams tend to play better down the stretch and I dont have 2nd half lines to tell you if the market has adjusted for it although I would find it hard to believe that in very many cases they are 4 or 5 pt favorites in the 2nd half and it would take at least that to make the 2nd half line efficient. I would guess if you wait another 20-30 games you will see some regression to the mean in this stat.
yes the Nuggets right now are outscoring their opponents in the 4th qtr but I would probably more account that to variance and of course to the improved performance of the nuggets this season. I think to say it is because they are at high altitude and that is the reason would mean we need to assume, the whole betting market is not aware of this and that if for any other reliable reason they have not caught on yet. I think both of those are hard to believe. the nuggets have always played at altitude and the past years data does not support them outplaying people in the 4th qtr. Altitude stayed the same but the scoring has not. the Nuggets are a better team and better teams tend to play better down the stretch and I dont have 2nd half lines to tell you if the market has adjusted for it although I would find it hard to believe that in very many cases they are 4 or 5 pt favorites in the 2nd half and it would take at least that to make the 2nd half line efficient. I would guess if you wait another 20-30 games you will see some regression to the mean in this stat.