Confusing line move on Notre Dame vs Clemson

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  • DJK
    SBR MVP
    • 01-17-11
    • 2424

    #1
    Confusing line move on Notre Dame vs Clemson
    SBR has 62% on Notre Dame and 38% on Clemson and even worse at Sports Insights with 74% on Notre Dame and 26% on Clemson.

    Yet, the spread has moved from -11.5 to -12.5 and it's consensus across all sportsbooks.

    So, what gives? If more people are betting on Notre Dame and the books want to balance the action, then shouldn't they be moving the line down and not up?

    I was going to bet rather big on Notre Dame, but now I may have to reconsider and take Clemson instead.

    What I don't like is that Clemson seems rather cocky including the coach. It's either quiet confidence or foolish over-confidence.
  • 2daBank
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-26-09
    • 88966

    #2
    I’d be confident too if I got to play weakest team in the group.
    Comment
    • DJK
      SBR MVP
      • 01-17-11
      • 2424

      #3
      Originally posted by 2daBank
      I’d be confident too if I got to play weakest team in the group.
      If you use the translative logic on those two teams, then you have to go opposite and take Notre Dame.

      Meaning, Clemson beat Pittsburgh by 32 and Notre Dame barely beat Pittsburgh by 5 at home, so using that logic Clemson is the pick but it's almost always wrong using that logic and therefore Notre Dame is the more logical pick.
      Comment
      • DJK
        SBR MVP
        • 01-17-11
        • 2424

        #4
        I checked the box score on the championship game between Clemson vs Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh had only 8 yards passing. Is that even accurate?

        Is Clemson's pass defense really that good?
        Comment
        • Shifty
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 08-10-08
          • 558

          #5
          Early money moved the opener from -11 to -13/13.5. This week the line dropped back to 12.5. I'd assume books taking more volume now so that's why the percentages show money on ND.
          Comment
          • DJK
            SBR MVP
            • 01-17-11
            • 2424

            #6
            Originally posted by DJK
            If you use the translative logic on those two teams, then you have to go opposite and take Notre Dame.

            Meaning, Clemson beat Pittsburgh by 32 and Notre Dame barely beat Pittsburgh by 5 at home, so using that logic Clemson is the pick but it's almost always wrong using that logic and therefore Notre Dame is the more logical pick.
            Just noticed that Clemson barely beat Syracuse and Notre Dame crushed Syracuse, so that translative logic offsets.

            My initial lean on Notre Dame was based on their passing game and Clemson's weakness in the secondary. Don't know about Notre Dame's run defense but if they can hold up against Clemson's run game, then I would have to say Notre Dame covers.
            Comment
            • DJK
              SBR MVP
              • 01-17-11
              • 2424

              #7
              Originally posted by Shifty
              Early money moved the opener from -11 to -13/13.5. This week the line dropped back to 12.5. I'd assume books taking more volume now so that's why the percentages show money on ND.
              I would be more comfortable taking Notre Dame if the line moves down.
              Comment
              • pavyracer
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 04-12-07
                • 82839

                #8
                Clemson will score a lot of points. If you don't like the spread movement bet the over points for Clemson. I can see them scoring 35-42 points on Notre Dame.
                Comment
                • kufan11
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 11-03-10
                  • 210

                  #9
                  Does clemson losing their best defensive player help their chances and justify the line moving further in their favor...no. Give me almost 2 TDs and ND.
                  Comment
                  • BigdaddyQH
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 07-13-09
                    • 19530

                    #10
                    Obviously you are just playing the game to get action on it. Successful gamblers NEVER wager that way. You either like a team or you do not. You cannot like both teams in the same game. You people simply refuse to listen. First, there is no guarantee that the information you have about how many people are wagering on which team is correct. Who releases that information? Second, I wager more than any 20 people do on a single game in here. That means if 19 of you took team A and I took team B there would be a huge difference in the number of people who wagered on team A and the amount of money wagered on Team A. The ONLY thing that counts is the money. Who do you think 85-90% of the people who wager are losers in the long run?
                    Comment
                    • 2daBank
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-26-09
                      • 88966

                      #11
                      Originally posted by DJK
                      If you use the translative logic on those two teams, then you have to go opposite and take Notre Dame.

                      Meaning, Clemson beat Pittsburgh by 32 and Notre Dame barely beat Pittsburgh by 5 at home, so using that logic Clemson is the pick but it's almost always wrong using that logic and therefore Notre Dame is the more logical pick.
                      Jesus Christ, I’m not typically a fan of guys saying someone overthinking it cause I enjoy thought. But shit man, that a lot of mind tricking going on it sounds like to me.

                      I could care less what either did vs pit, I know Clemson one of best few teams in country and I’m also fairly confident Irish not all that great and prob don’t even belong in top 4, skating by a bunch of weak teams don’t impress me.

                      That said these stupid ass dd spreads pretty much games impossible to bet for me, maybe ml parlay both w colts or something? That prob be it for me. Doubt I even watch, really don’t care.
                      Comment
                      • 2daBank
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 01-26-09
                        • 88966

                        #12
                        Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                        Obviously you are just playing the game to get action on it. Successful gamblers NEVER wager that way. You either like a team or you do not. You cannot like both teams in the same game. You people simply refuse to listen. First, there is no guarantee that the information you have about how many people are wagering on which team is correct. Who releases that information? Second, I wager more than any 20 people do on a single game in here. That means if 19 of you took team A and I took team B there would be a huge difference in the number of people who wagered on team A and the amount of money wagered on Team A. The ONLY thing that counts is the money. Who do you think 85-90% of the people who wager are losers in the long run?
                        You the fattest loser here ya fukkin phony. Nobody buys your prented to be sharp big timer you claim to be fat boy, just like we all know you ain’t ever whipped nothing, killed nothing, or watched nothing die. You a fat bitch blowhard behind a keyboard.
                        Comment
                        • lakerboy
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 04-02-09
                          • 94379

                          #13
                          It's all teaser moves
                          Comment
                          • QuantumLeap
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 08-22-08
                            • 6880

                            #14
                            Originally posted by DJK
                            SBR has 62% on Notre Dame and 38% on Clemson and even worse at Sports Insights with 74% on Notre Dame and 26% on Clemson.

                            Yet, the spread has moved from -11.5 to -12.5 and it's consensus across all sportsbooks.

                            So, what gives? If more people are betting on Notre Dame and the books want to balance the action, then shouldn't they be moving the line down and not up?

                            I was going to bet rather big on Notre Dame, but now I may have to reconsider and take Clemson instead.

                            What I don't like is that Clemson seems rather cocky including the coach. It's either quiet confidence or foolish over-confidence.
                            Books don't always move lines based on money. It's how they keep you guessing.
                            Comment
                            • kufan11
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 11-03-10
                              • 210

                              #15
                              If you were leaning ND and then found out Clemsons best defensive player was out why would that make u wanna change positions?
                              Comment
                              • jjgold
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 07-20-05
                                • 388179

                                #16
                                The info books give is not accurate
                                Comment
                                • TheMoneyShot
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 02-14-07
                                  • 28672

                                  #17
                                  DJK - Forget about percentages in bowl games.... sites can give you false numbers

                                  Just look at the line... and wager with your head.
                                  Comment
                                  • 2daBank
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 01-26-09
                                    • 88966

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by kufan11
                                    If you were leaning ND and then found out Clemsons best defensive player was out why would that make u wanna change positions?
                                    Clearly this guy goes thru war with himself over what to play. He got meaningless line moves and bet percentages talking him off one play and onto another. He needs a shrink not a gambling forum!!
                                    Comment
                                    • 2daBank
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-26-09
                                      • 88966

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by jjgold
                                      The info books give is not accurate
                                      Can’t believe so many care and make decisions based off that crap.
                                      Comment
                                      • MBENZ
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 01-07-07
                                        • 5238

                                        #20
                                        If the public percentage is high on ND and the line moves the other way it only means the real money is on Clemson.
                                        Comment
                                        • TommieGunshot
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-27-12
                                          • 1607

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by DJK
                                          I would be more comfortable taking Notre Dame if the line moves down.
                                          I’ll move the line down to Notre Dame +4 and give you even money. Does that make you feel comfortable enough to take the bet?
                                          Comment
                                          • daneblazer
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 09-14-08
                                            • 27861

                                            #22
                                            Bowl season and we still don’t know how good clemson really is. They haven’t played a soul
                                            Comment
                                            • 2daBank
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 01-26-09
                                              • 88966

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by TommieGunshot
                                              I’ll move the line down to Notre Dame +4 and give you even money. Does that make you feel comfortable enough to take the bet?
                                              Lmao. Nice

                                              Op ill give you Irish +2 for all the points you can muster!!
                                              Comment
                                              • navyblue81
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 11-29-13
                                                • 4143

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by DJK
                                                If you use the translative logic on those two teams, then you have to go opposite and take Notre Dame.

                                                Meaning, Clemson beat Pittsburgh by 32 and Notre Dame barely beat Pittsburgh by 5 at home, so using that logic Clemson is the pick but it's almost always wrong using that logic and therefore Notre Dame is the more logical pick.
                                                Logic evens out when you enter Syracuse into the equation and how each team did against them (yes, I know Lawrence got hurt but they were having major problems with them when he was healthy in that game).

                                                I personally like the Irish in this game. I am not sure they can pull out the W but I firmly believe they can keep this game close and have a shot at winning.
                                                Comment
                                                • LT Profits
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 10-27-06
                                                  • 90963

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by DJK
                                                  SBR has 62% on Notre Dame and 38% on Clemson and even worse at Sports Insights with 74% on Notre Dame and 26% on Clemson.

                                                  Yet, the spread has moved from -11.5 to -12.5 and it's consensus across all sportsbooks.

                                                  So, what gives? If more people are betting on Notre Dame and the books want to balance the action, then shouldn't they be moving the line down and not up?

                                                  I was going to bet rather big on Notre Dame, but now I may have to reconsider and take Clemson instead.

                                                  What I don't like is that Clemson seems rather cocky including the coach. It's either quiet confidence or foolish over-confidence.
                                                  Those betting percentages are percent of BETS. Best guess is that line has gone up because Clemson has had the higher % of MONEY bet.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Husker36
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-02-08
                                                    • 3846

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
                                                    Obviously you are just playing the game to get action on it. Successful gamblers NEVER wager that way. You either like a team or you do not. You cannot like both teams in the same game. You people simply refuse to listen. First, there is no guarantee that the information you have about how many people are wagering on which team is correct. Who releases that information? Second, I wager more than any 20 people do on a single game in here. That means if 19 of you took team A and I took team B there would be a huge difference in the number of people who wagered on team A and the amount of money wagered on Team A. The ONLY thing that counts is the money. Who do you think 85-90% of the people who wager are losers in the long run?
                                                    Bigdaddy only plays 1 game a year. And then trolls this site the rest of the year.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • kingdom
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 07-25-10
                                                      • 10099

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by DJK
                                                      If you use the translative logic on those two teams, then you have to go opposite and take Notre Dame.

                                                      Meaning, Clemson beat Pittsburgh by 32 and Notre Dame barely beat Pittsburgh by 5 at home, so using that logic Clemson is the pick but it's almost always wrong using that logic and therefore Notre Dame is the more logical pick.
                                                      if gambling were that easy we would all be millionaires.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • DJK
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-17-11
                                                        • 2424

                                                        #28
                                                        I work as a programmer, so I wrote a program that can track bet percentages (on SBR and Sports Insights) and line moves (on SBR, Sports Insights, ScoresandOdds, etc). This is the first year I wrote the program and used it to see how it fared.

                                                        It's hitting 75% using a logic I set it to.

                                                        Unfortunately, this game did not fall into that category and therefore I have no clue what's going to happen, so maybe I shouldn't bet on it. What bothers me is that Clemson had two close games; one vs Texas A&M and one vs Syracuse. I have to exclude the Syracuse game since their starting QB did not play the whole game.

                                                        Texas A&M passed for 490 yards on Clemson and ND has some really tall receivers and I can see them passing on Clemson. I watched only one game of ND against USC and none of Clemson's. I wish I had watched more of their games to make the bet.

                                                        I won over 5K in the last two weekends betting on NFL and didn't touch a single college bowl games as I don't fare too well on college bowl games. I have fared fairly decent on the CFP games, so I'm trying to see if it's worth betting on either games.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • KingKolzig
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 02-02-10
                                                          • 5550

                                                          #29
                                                          i know ppl laugh at the teaser guy but this is a good spot to tease Clemson to -6.5

                                                          then the other half of the teaser philly eagles. looks like a winner
                                                          Comment
                                                          • sweethook
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-21-07
                                                            • 12667

                                                            #30
                                                            It's all teaser moves.. no biggy
                                                            Comment
                                                            • DJK
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-17-11
                                                              • 2424

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by KingKolzig
                                                              i know ppl laugh at the teaser guy but this is a good spot to tease Clemson to -6.5

                                                              then the other half of the teaser philly eagles. looks like a winner
                                                              If I was to make a teaser bet, then I would be teasing ND to +18.5 and not Clemson to -6.5 since like what daneblazer said, Clemson hasn't had any quality opponent except for maybe Texas A&M and they barely won that game. But the Eagles I like since I have no idea what motivation Washington has for playing except to knock out a division opponent out of the playoff too. What I don't like about the Eagles is that if the Vikings end up destroying the Bears, even though that's extremely unlikely, the Eagles may just fold if they don't see a hope of making the playoffs score watching instead of focusing on the game.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • DJK
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-17-11
                                                                • 2424

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by KingKolzig
                                                                i know ppl laugh at the teaser guy but this is a good spot to tease Clemson to -6.5

                                                                then the other half of the teaser philly eagles. looks like a winner
                                                                I don't see too many people on here making teaser or ML parlay bets. Those two type of bets have been extremely profitable for me this season as I haven't had a losing weekend in 11 weeks (I didn't start until the beginning of October after laying off the sports betting for 7 years). I hit 6 out of 9 ML parlays and teasers just this past weekend and the minimum payout odd was 4X and the highest was 15X.

                                                                I had only ONE losing pick for the whole weekend and it was San Francisco +4.5 where they lost by 5 to the Bears. If the 49ers covered, then I would have won another $3,500 for a perfect weekend.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • DJK
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-17-11
                                                                  • 2424

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by kufan11
                                                                  If you were leaning ND and then found out Clemsons best defensive player was out why would that make u wanna change positions?
                                                                  I saw that you took Auburn. Just on that fact plus your comment above, I'm going to stick with my original pick and 1K it is on Notre Dame.

                                                                  I took Syracuse for 1K even though my head kept on saying otherwise and lost when they played Notre Dame.

                                                                  We will see what happens this time.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mountie12
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 02-27-12
                                                                    • 167

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • KingKolzig
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 02-02-10
                                                                      • 5550

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by DJK
                                                                      I don't see too many people on here making teaser or ML parlay bets. Those two type of bets have been extremely profitable for me this season as I haven't had a losing weekend in 11 weeks (I didn't start until the beginning of October after laying off the sports betting for 7 years). I hit 6 out of 9 ML parlays and teasers just this past weekend and the minimum payout odd was 4X and the highest was 15X.
                                                                      i love teasers. if i cant pick a side i just make a teaser
                                                                      I had only ONE losing pick for the whole weekend and it was San Francisco +4.5 where they lost by 5 to the Bears. If the 49ers covered, then I would have won another $3,500 for a perfect weekend.
                                                                      i love teasers. if i cant pick a side i just make a teaser
                                                                      Comment
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