10% Bankroll bet on Houston ML is +EV

[Philmill]

Your trying to get some numbers togather...That's good ….. but it just 1 of 20 things a guy has to check off the list to feel that he might have a play on a game....and even if all 20 checks are made good... it still doesn't give a guy a the real winniner…
but it puts ya in the Highest Probability of Success.....that all a guy can do....

[danshan11]

ESPN is a billion dollar business. I just have confidence their analytics are much better than everybody else possibly could be. Just a hunch, I definitely could be wrong. It's also about saving myself time.

you are wrong, ESPN does not have a clue and if you look at their analytics you can see "noise" in anything, Pinnacle is the sharpest ESPECIALLY NFL LINES, if you are not beating the line and beating it good in the NFL you are getting crushed PERIOD, With a capital P!

NFL with Pinnacle so far this year
home team scoring 25.6 pts per game
away team scoring 22.9 pts per game
that is -2.7 difference guess what the avg line was -2.5 and you think you can beat that with espn stats! Come on dude

[ddittie]

you are wrong, ESPN does not have a clue and if you look at their analytics you can see "noise" in anything, Pinnacle is the sharpest ESPECIALLY NFL LINES, if you are not beating the line and beating it good in the NFL you are getting crushed PERIOD, With a capital P!

Perhaps;

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/22152209/evaluating-predictive-powers-fpi-2017-college-football-season

[danshan11]

Perhaps;
http://www.espn.com/college-football...ootball-season

and like those results show the actual line did better, so if you use espn you pay the juice!

you got to beat the juice! ESPN does not do that, they dont even do as good as the line!

so if you want help predicting a game the absolute best thing to use is the line

[oilcountry99]

ESPN is a billion dollar business. I just have confidence their analytics are much better than everybody else possibly could be. Just a hunch, I definitely could be wrong. It's also about saving myself time.

Fair honest answer and I hope your hunch is correct, good luck with your selections!

[danshan11]

Fair honest answer and I hope your hunch is correct, good luck with your selections!

this shows right here, his hunch is not correct

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?orderby=mse&type=1&year=17

[ddittie]

and like those results show the actual line did better, so if you use espn you pay the juice!

you got to beat the juice! ESPN does not do that, they dont even do as good as the line!

so if you want help predicting a game the absolute best thing to use is the line

danshan, you need to use a little common sense when looking at those results. First off, the individual statistics per year show that there is inaccuracies with their lines. But, everybody is off on the line, because the purpose of the line is to split the bets, and the measurement for the accuracy measures how far off the lines are from the final score. They will always be off because teams will almost certainly blow out teams in games that are supposed to be close.

Furthermore, I'm not betting SPREAD, when using espn stats, I'm betting moneylines. So, when you read this article it shows that their predictor is extremely accurate when you look at all games (ex: 54% favs and how often they win, which was in the 50s). The more years you use the more accurate it is.
To use the predictor win % to bet against the spread is not what im doing. I understand your knee jerk reaction to argue and be right, but in this case, let the numbers (results) do the talking.

[danshan11]

you can try and justify until the cows come home why espn who cant even beat the midweek line over 1000 games is sharper than the line BUT reality is if you use espn to predict games in the long run you will pay the juice!

[danshan11]

espn is sharper than the average bear but so am I, but that is NOT enough to beat the juice in the long run!

[ddittie]

Again, I'm not using espn to bet spreads. I'm using it to bet moneylines and its quite simple to do basic multiplication/division to see if it is +EV.
If you're arguing espn's predictor on win% is not accurate, then I am willing to admit the jury is not out on that quite yet. But, I'm assuming it is pretty accurate, and will only get better. If it is +-5% I can account for that when I look at the expected value and only make the plays where it being 5% off is still a positive result.

[KVB]

Nice hit ddittie.



We are watching you.

[danshan11]

Again, I'm not using espn to bet spreads. I'm using it to bet moneylines and its quite simple to do basic multiplication/division to see if it is +EV.
If you're arguing espn's predictor on win% is not accurate, then I am willing to admit the jury is not out on that quite yet. But, I'm assuming it is pretty accurate, and will only get better. If it is +-5% I can account for that when I look at the expected value and only make the plays where it being 5% off is still a positive result.

ESPN is just like the line going to be off some and on some and will win some and lose some and it will all at the end of the day be you paying the juice!

[ddittie]

ESPN is just like the line going to be off some and on some and will win some and lose some and it will all at the end of the day be you paying the juice!

keep an eye on my basketball picks thread. if you are right, it will dig itself a hole.

[danshan11]

Again, I'm not using espn to bet spreads. I'm using it to bet moneylines and its quite simple to do basic multiplication/division to see if it is +EV.

it is very simple if the closing line says 72% chance of winning not counting fave long shot bias and how big the margin but basically they have a 71% chance of really winning

[danshan11]

keep an eye on my basketball picks thread. if you are right, it will dig itself a hole.

dont trick yourself thinking a 100 or 200 game count means anything, its nothing

[danshan11]

keep an eye on my basketball picks thread. if you are right, it will dig itself a hole.

wouldnt it be awesome we all just bet the espn line and kill off the 2000 year old betting industry in one clean sweep, oh wait shit if espn got sharper than the line it would then become the line, right and they would just add margin, kinda like roulette or craps!

[gauchojake]

Based on this logic you should be hammering the Denver Nuggets tonight.

[KVB]

Based on this logic you should be hammering the Denver Nuggets tonight.

Also, the Nuggets could do well because they should be relaxed as reports come in that the team was hammering these cheerleaders last night.

[ddittie]

Based on this logic you should be hammering the Denver Nuggets tonight.

Im on Denver tonight, just not 10% of the roll.

[ddittie]

It’s the beginning of nba season and the end of the nfl season. Stats will be more accurate at the end of the season than the beginning.

[gauchojake]

Otters please do not read this thread.

[danshan11]

Im on Denver tonight, just not 10% of the roll.

if you use 10% of your BR on small moneylines like -300 to +300 you will go broke 100% guaranteed, dont do that break your BR into 100 units and bet to win 1 unit on every bet

[danshan11]

Otters please do not read this thread.

who is Otters?

[gauchojake]

who is Otters?

One of my favorite posters who loves chalk like a fat kid loves cake.

[danshan11]

one of the big fave players oh ok!

[advantageU]

Otters please do not read this thread.

lol