10% Bankroll bet on Houston ML is +EV

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  • ddittie
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 09-15-12
    • 819
    #1
    10% Bankroll bet on Houston ML is +EV
    ML for Houston is currently -190
    ESPN stats say Houston wins 74.2% of the time.
    Meaning, if you bet $190 to win $100,
    74.2% of the time you will win $100, which is $74.20.
    25.8% of the time you will lose $190, which is -$49.02.

    So you're +$25 making this play. I recommend putting 10% of your roll on this! BOL
    Tags: None
    • danshan11
      SBR MVP
      • 07-08-17
      • 4101
      #2
      just a question but what the heck does ESPN stats know?
        Comment
        • Philmill
          SBR MVP
          • 09-30-11
          • 4275
          #3
          Houston Texas won 100% in favorite status last 5 games ....
          Houston Texas won last 7 games...
          Houston are a solid 71% chance to beat the Tennessee Titans

          *for what its worth....info I pay for...
            Comment
            • sheedy17
              SBR Sharp
              • 08-02-18
              • 453
              #4
              Your also talking ML bets and no spread correct?
                Comment
                • unusialsusp5
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-18-10
                  • 4198
                  #5
                  texans ML too high

                  ML of -190 way too high. buy pts. to get it down to 3 or 2 1/2. tennessee not the patsy you think they are. got thumped by indy last week but throttled NE. beware.
                    Comment
                    • ddittie
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 09-15-12
                      • 819
                      #6
                      Originally posted by danshan11
                      just a question but what the heck does ESPN stats know?
                      ESPN stats are the most accurate thing out there. It may be free info but its taking into every stat they have. Passing yards, rushing, pts scored, pts allowed, individual stats, weather, etc. It's more valuable than you realize, sir!
                        Comment
                        • ddittie
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 09-15-12
                          • 819
                          #7
                          Originally posted by Philmill
                          Houston Texas won 100% in favorite status last 5 games ....
                          Houston Texas won last 7 games...
                          Houston are a solid 71% chance to beat the Tennessee Titans

                          *for what its worth....info I pay for...
                          -190 still has value at 71%! I appreciate your 2 cents sir!
                            Comment
                            • ddittie
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 09-15-12
                              • 819
                              #8
                              Originally posted by unusialsusp5
                              ML of -190 way too high. buy pts. to get it down to 3 or 2 1/2. tennessee not the patsy you think they are. got thumped by indy last week but throttled NE. beware.
                              -190 is +EV, if you believe Houston wins here 70% or more.
                                Comment
                                • jjgold
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 07-20-05
                                  • 388179
                                  #9


                                  every game a new game in nfl you nitwits
                                    Comment
                                    • ddittie
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 09-15-12
                                      • 819
                                      #10
                                      Originally posted by sheedy17
                                      Your also talking ML bets and no spread correct?
                                      Yessir, this is ML only.
                                        Comment
                                        • ddittie
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 09-15-12
                                          • 819
                                          #11
                                          Originally posted by unusialsusp5
                                          ML of -190 way too high. buy pts. to get it down to 3 or 2 1/2. tennessee not the patsy you think they are. got thumped by indy last week but throttled NE. beware.
                                          I put 1k pts on the ML, and 480 on spread with cash I'd recommend just putting 1-2 units.
                                            Comment
                                            • LT Profits
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 10-27-06
                                              • 90963
                                              #12
                                              Titans +4 for me, Houston not as good as their record.
                                                Comment
                                                • jjgold
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 07-20-05
                                                  • 388179
                                                  #13
                                                  there is a reason NFL limits 50x than any other sports
                                                    Comment
                                                    • unusialsusp5
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 04-18-10
                                                      • 4198
                                                      #14
                                                      Originally posted by ddittie
                                                      -190 still has value at 71%! I appreciate your 2 cents sir!
                                                      sorry, the -190 is way over priced for what is basically a pick-em. are you really that worried that houston might win by 1 or 2. buy points.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Ballerholic
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-16-13
                                                          • 2767
                                                          #15
                                                          no way ESPN now more than the bookies!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • jjgold
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 07-20-05
                                                              • 388179
                                                              #16
                                                              line moving down

                                                              basically dead even game
                                                                Comment
                                                                • shocka1212
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 10-06-12
                                                                  • 16788
                                                                  #17
                                                                  Houston lost at home to the NY Giants.. if you're really content on taking them, why not just bet it live? you'll get a way better number if not + money on both sides.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • SharpAngles
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 04-15-14
                                                                      • 9467
                                                                      #18
                                                                      ESPN Stats said so. What could possibly go wrong?
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        • sheedy17
                                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                                          • 08-02-18
                                                                          • 453
                                                                          #19
                                                                          Im leaning Titans + points. Titans are unpredictable, and so is Houston, could Titans D could hold the WR in check. Tough call im staying away or betting live
                                                                            Comment
                                                                            • Philmill
                                                                              SBR MVP
                                                                              • 09-30-11
                                                                              • 4275
                                                                              #20
                                                                              Originally posted by jjgold


                                                                              every game a new game in nfl you nitwits
                                                                              we know that McSlick….
                                                                                Comment
                                                                                • ehp6737
                                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                                  • 12-11-08
                                                                                  • 4185
                                                                                  #21
                                                                                  This thread is a bad attempt at humor, right?
                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                    • jjgold
                                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                                      • 07-20-05
                                                                                      • 388179
                                                                                      #22
                                                                                      NFL +EV now I heard it all

                                                                                      Best of luck
                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                        • ddittie
                                                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                                                          • 09-15-12
                                                                                          • 819
                                                                                          #23
                                                                                          Some of you are too old for that common core math program they're teaching now I thought.

                                                                                          ML bet's are all about getting +EV long term. If you want to throw in the Houston -4, I recommended that play earlier in my NFL ATS thread. This is a 10% bankroll play, and I wasn't as confident in Houston -4 for 10% of the roll. Even if Houston lost here, it's a +EV play. I'm testing this theory in basketball, so go laugh at me there, gentlemen. For the ones who tailed on this play...
                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                            • 2daBank
                                                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                                                              • 01-26-09
                                                                                              • 88966
                                                                                              #24
                                                                                              Originally posted by ddittie
                                                                                              Some of you are too old for that common core math program they're teaching now I thought.

                                                                                              ML bet's are all about getting +EV long term. If you want to throw in the Houston -4, I recommended that play earlier in my NFL ATS thread. This is a 10% bankroll play, and I wasn't as confident in Houston -4 for 10% of the roll. Even if Houston lost here, it's a +EV play. I'm testing this theory in basketball, so go laugh at me there, gentlemen. For the ones who tailed on this play...
                                                                                              Good call.. as much as I dislike juice I paid it here to,, sure felt like a gm houston wins at higher clip than price suggested while only covering half of them.

                                                                                              Some the guys giving you crap line up to bet -200 mlb favs like it going out of style. That funny.
                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                • sweethook
                                                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                                                  • 11-21-07
                                                                                                  • 12667
                                                                                                  #25
                                                                                                  bingo -- very nice
                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                    • danshan11
                                                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                                                      • 07-08-17
                                                                                                      • 4101
                                                                                                      #26
                                                                                                      couple questions
                                                                                                      what stat data do you have to support espn being even close to right on their % guess?
                                                                                                      Why in the world do you think Pinnacle is offering a "prime time" like Monday night football at a huge discount on the Home favorite? Maybe Pinnacle running a cyber Monday juice free and EV on home faves special, right?
                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                        • khaden
                                                                                                          SBR MVP
                                                                                                          • 01-19-09
                                                                                                          • 1864
                                                                                                          #27
                                                                                                          Nice thread I quietly follow and don’t chime in on people’s business and threads - it is all about cashing tickets sometimes!!!! And you are well done! Are you posting other sports?
                                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                                            • Mr KLC
                                                                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                                                              • 12-19-07
                                                                                                              • 31097
                                                                                                              #28
                                                                                                              “If you start to to take the cheese, drink the kool-aid, then you’re going to get humbled,” Texans O’Brien on the win streak, hype that may go with it.
                                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                                • ddittie
                                                                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                                                                  • 09-15-12
                                                                                                                  • 819
                                                                                                                  #29
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by danshan11
                                                                                                                  couple questions
                                                                                                                  what stat data do you have to support espn being even close to right on their % guess?
                                                                                                                  Why in the world do you think Pinnacle is offering a "prime time" like Monday night football at a huge discount on the Home favorite? Maybe Pinnacle running a cyber Monday juice free and EV on home faves special, right?
                                                                                                                  1. I use ESPN stats for my own algorithm. It's nowhere near perfect, but I do use it to help with my picks. I have also started to bet much more frequently and use it for all sports they track. I will share the results once there is a lot more data.

                                                                                                                  2. No idea why Pinnacle has that offer. Perhaps they are testing promotions, my first thought is if they offer plays that are idiotic not to place, they can pull people in and get them to deposit, knowing most people will be triggered back into habits of losing and never cashing it out.
                                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                                    • ddittie
                                                                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                                                                      • 09-15-12
                                                                                                                      • 819
                                                                                                                      #30
                                                                                                                      Originally posted by khaden
                                                                                                                      Nice thread I quietly follow and don’t chime in on people’s business and threads - it is all about cashing tickets sometimes!!!! And you are well done! Are you posting other sports?
                                                                                                                      Ty sir.
                                                                                                                      I've begun a basketball thread. If the basketball thread goes well I'll start posting mlb,nba,ncaam,ncaaf,nfl.
                                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                                        • ddittie
                                                                                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                                                                                          • 09-15-12
                                                                                                                          • 819
                                                                                                                          #31
                                                                                                                          Originally posted by Mr KLC
                                                                                                                          “If you start to to take the cheese, drink the kool-aid, then you’re going to get humbled,” Texans O’Brien on the win streak, hype that may go with it.
                                                                                                                          Good quote but I don't see how this applies to this thread. The play was a 10% bankroll bet, and I would not recommend huge all-in plays anymore, as I've lost 4k in winnings this season alone attempting them on 'locks'.
                                                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                                                            • oilcountry99
                                                                                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                                                                                              • 08-29-10
                                                                                                                              • 707
                                                                                                                              #32
                                                                                                                              Originally posted by danshan11
                                                                                                                              just a question but what the heck does ESPN stats know?
                                                                                                                              Exactly, why ESPN? Why not Sagarin, Dunkel, Dratings, danshan11, oilcountry99, bob the builder?
                                                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                                                • ddittie
                                                                                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                                                                                  • 09-15-12
                                                                                                                                  • 819
                                                                                                                                  #33
                                                                                                                                  Originally posted by oilcountry99
                                                                                                                                  Exactly, why ESPN? Why not Sagarin, Dunkel, Dratings, danshan11, oilcountry99, bob the builder?
                                                                                                                                  ESPN is a billion dollar business. I just have confidence their analytics are much better than everybody else possibly could be. Just a hunch, I definitely could be wrong. It's also about saving myself time.
                                                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                                                    • ddittie
                                                                                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                                                                                      • 09-15-12
                                                                                                                                      • 819
                                                                                                                                      #34
                                                                                                                                      Originally posted by khaden
                                                                                                                                      Nice thread I quietly follow and don’t chime in on people’s business and threads - it is all about cashing tickets sometimes!!!! And you are well done! Are you posting other sports?
                                                                                                                                      Here's what I have so far:
                                                                                                                                      GameDate Sport Description Risk/Win
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005759
                                                                                                                                      Nov 27 07:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [514] NORTH CAROLINA-WILMINGTON -275                                                                                                                                      		 193.00 / 70.18
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005760
                                                                                                                                      Nov 27 07:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [516] NOTRE DAME -310                                                                                                                                      		 180.00 / 58.06
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005761
                                                                                                                                      Nov 27 07:30 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [520] LOUISVILLE +184                                                                                                                                      		 103.00 / 189.52
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005762
                                                                                                                                      Nov 27 08:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 NBA STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [506] MEMPHIS +184                                                                                                                                      		 87.00 / 160.08
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005763
                                                                                                                                      Nov 27 09:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 NBA STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [510] DENVER -175                                                                                                                                      		 308.00 / 176.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005764
                                                                                                                                      Nov 27 08:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [522] DRAKE +155                                                                                                                                      		 118.00 / 182.90
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005765
                                                                                                                                      Nov 27 08:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [524] LOYOLA (IL) +237                                                                                                                                      		 95.00 / 225.15
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005766
                                                                                                                                      Nov 27 08:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [528] TULSA -500                                                                                                                                      		 1080.00 / 216.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005767
                                                                                                                                      Nov 27 09:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [530] COLORADO STATE +105                                                                                                                                      		 118.00 / 123.90
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005768
                                                                                                                                      Nov 27 09:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [535] NORTH CAROLINA STATE +249                                                                                                                                      		 68.00 / 169.32
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005769
                                                                                                                                      Nov 27 07:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [544] OHIO -130                                                                                                                                      		 172.90 / 133.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005770
                                                                                                                                      Nov 27 09:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [552] MONTANA STATE +105                                                                                                                                      		 132.00 / 138.60
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005800
                                                                                                                                      Nov 27 07:30 PM                                                                                                                                      		 NBA STRAIGHT BET (FP)
                                                                                                                                      [504] MIAMI -360                                                                                                                                      		 0.00 / 54.44
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005802
                                                                                                                                      Nov 27 09:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 NBA STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [507] INDIANA -145                                                                                                                                      		 156.00 / 107.59
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005830
                                                                                                                                      Nov 29 08:20 PM                                                                                                                                      		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [302] DALLAS +296                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 296.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005831
                                                                                                                                      Dec 02 01:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [352] JACKSONVILLE +184                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 184.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005832
                                                                                                                                      Dec 02 08:20 PM                                                                                                                                      		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [353] L.A. CHARGERS +147                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 147.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005833
                                                                                                                                      Dec 02 01:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [356] TAMPA BAY +155                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 155.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005834
                                                                                                                                      Dec 02 01:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [358] ATLANTA -102                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 98.04
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005835
                                                                                                                                      Dec 02 01:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [361] BUFFALO +176                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 176.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005836
                                                                                                                                      Dec 02 01:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [366] CINCINNATI +173                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 173.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005837
                                                                                                                                      Dec 02 01:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [368] DETROIT +367                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 367.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005838
                                                                                                                                      Dec 02 01:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [370] GREEN BAY -1112                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 8.99
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005839
                                                                                                                                      Dec 02 04:05 PM                                                                                                                                      		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [372] OAKLAND +876                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 876.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005840
                                                                                                                                      Dec 02 04:25 PM                                                                                                                                      		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [375] MINNESOTA +211                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 211.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005874
                                                                                                                                      Nov 30 07:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [303] NORTHERN ILLINOIS +144                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 144.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005875
                                                                                                                                      Nov 30 08:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [305] UTAH +176                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 176.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005880
                                                                                                                                      Dec 01 01:30 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [308] MIDDLE TENNESSEE -120                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 83.33
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005881
                                                                                                                                      Dec 01 03:30 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [310] UCF -160                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 62.50
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005882
                                                                                                                                      Dec 01 12:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [314] APPALACHIAN STATE -1050                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 9.52
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005883
                                                                                                                                      Dec 01 04:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [315] GEORGIA +421                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 421.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005884
                                                                                                                                      Dec 01 12:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [330] VIRGINIA TECH -200                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 50.00
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005885
                                                                                                                                      Dec 01 03:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [333] STANFORD -140                                                                                                                                      		 100.00 / 71.43
                                                                                                                                      Ticket#:4005887
                                                                                                                                      Dec 01 12:00 PM                                                                                                                                      		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
                                                                                                                                      [328] NORTH CAROLINA STATE -2500                                                                                                                                      		 125.00 / 5.00
                                                                                                                                      These are betpoints, my real money bets are about 1/10th of these.
                                                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                                                        • jjgold
                                                                                                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                                                                                                          • 07-20-05
                                                                                                                                          • 388179
                                                                                                                                          #35
                                                                                                                                          Tremendous work
                                                                                                                                            Comment
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