Ok boys... Lets now see who here is a REAL gambler, and who is not.....

[RealSlimShady]

I think my numbers are right. 9/10 chance of surviving first cup. To survive 2nd cup, you need to pick 9/10 and then 8/9 after. To survive 3rd cup, it's 9/10 then 8/9 and then 7/8. Am I wrong?

[Nicky Santoro]

I think my numbers are right. 9/10 chance of surviving first cup. To survive 2nd cup, you need to pick 9/10 and then 8/9 after. To survive 3rd cup, it's 9/10 then 8/9 and then 7/8. Am I wrong?

If he decided beforehand that he is going for the 3 straight.. his odds of surving is no longer 90%. it is EXACTLY 70% now..

9/10x8/9x7/8= 70/100..

i'd rather have a 90% chance at surviving for 3 mill than a 70% chance of surviving for 12 mill..

[BadNina]

What's the name of this poison?



Not that I need it for anything....

[RealSlimShady]

Nicky!! Line up the $500million, buddy. And 2 cups!

At worst, I dont survive long enough to get to 1000 posts.

[13th Inning]

If you agree to the first bet, you have a 1 in 10 chance of losing. This equals 10%.

Assuming you agree to the first bet, and you win, then you subsequently have a 1 in 9 chance in losing, should you choose to go forward. (You've already eliminated one of the ten losing chances, leaving nine possible combinations with still one losing possibility.)

Therefore, if you agree to the second bet, you're willing to take your chance that your choice among the 9 remaining cups will be non-poisonous. The one cup that IS poisonous represents 1 out of 9, which is 11.1% losing chance.

If you take that bet and survive, and therefore keep going, you've now eliminated 2 of the original 10 cups. Now your odds of pulling the poison cup are 1 in 8. That equals 12.5%. Sounds pretty good to me.

Am I wrong with this? I think my math is correct...?

[13th Inning]

If he decided beforehand that he is going for the 3 straight.. his odds of surving is no longer 90%. it is EXACTLY 70% now..

9/10x8/9x7/8= 70/100..

i'd rather have a 90% chance at surviving for 3 mill than a 70% chance of surviving for 12 mill..

It's not 70% - it's more like 78%.

The third bet would be 7 out of 8. Just by surviving the first two bets, you've eliminated 2 of the 10 chances of dying.

First bet: 1 die 9 live (9 in 10 chance you live)
Second bet (if you live): 1 die 8 live (8 in 9 chance you live)
Third bet (if you live): 1 die 7 live (7 in 8 chance you live)

I'm going with the assumption that you can't decide to go for the second bet or third bet without winning the previous one, since if you lost you'd DIE.
I don't understand the discrepancy here...?

[Nicky Santoro]

It's not 70% - it's more like 78%.

The third bet would be 7 out of 8. Just by surviving the first two bets, you've eliminated 2 of the 10 chances of dying.

First bet: 1 die 9 live (9 in 10 chance you live)
Second bet (if you live): 1 die 8 live (8 in 9 chance you live)
Third bet (if you live): 1 die 7 live (7 in 8 chance you live)

I don't understand the discrepancy here...?

I got 70%..

9/10 x 8/9 x 7/8 = 504/720 OR 70%..

[13th Inning]

This is different because you can't multiply.
Once you're wrong, you die and that's the end.

[dbartinbwgc]

I would tell my wife,
This guy just gave us 1 million dollars
Lets have a drink to celebrate.

so if she dies I got 3 million
if she lives and finds out
I still got 2 million

[13th Inning]

If I choose the wrong one in the first leg of this bet, the game is over. There is no 8/9 or 7/8.
If I am correct in the first leg and lose the second leg, the game is over. There is no 7/8.
If I am correct on the first and second leg, and lose the third leg, the game is over. Period.
If I am correct on all three legs, there is 6/7 remaining.


And if I had balls, I'd keep going until 5/6 and 4/5 if I was still alive. Then I'd quit and marry some hot Indian broad and move to an island somewhere.

[13th Inning]

Nicky I think I see what you're doing - you're assuming I'd agree to 3 bets right off the bat, whereas I'm saying I'd go three bets sequentially assuming I win each previous one.

[13th Inning]

10 choices, 1 is poison. 9 are okay. (90% chance the choice is okay)

I just picked one and it is okay. Now I have:
9 choices, 1 is poison. 8 are okay. (89% chance the next choice is okay)

I just picked one and it is okay. Now I have:
8 choices, 1 is poison. 7 are okay. (87.5% chance the next choice is okay)

I just picked one and it is okay. Now I have:
7 choices, 1 is poison. 6 are okay. (85.7% chance the next choice is okay)

I just picked one and it is okay. Now I have:
6 choices, 1 is poison. 5 are okay. (83.3% chance the next choice is okay)

I just picked one and it is okay. Now I have:
5 choices, 1 is poison. 4 are okay. (80% chance the next choice is okay)

I just picked one and it is okay. Now I have:
4 choices, 1 is poison. 3 are okay. (75% chance the next choice is okay)

I just picked one and it is okay. Now I have:
3 choices, 1 is poison. 2 are okay. (67% chance the next choice is okay)

I just picked one and it is okay. Now I have:
2 choices, 1 is poison. 1 is okay. (50% chance the next choice is okay)

Now there is no way anyone would take that chance!
But up until 3 or 4 choices, the odds are pretty good.

That's why it's way worth it to go double- or triple- or nothing. It's such a huge advantage over what you are actually risking.

[joeybagadonuts]

Well first off Nicky, doing it for $3 million these days is a bit anticlimatic, sort of like Dr. Evil's, "One Millllllllllllion Dollars!" A guy with a just regular job these days by USA wages should be able to find a way to invest or save $1 million to $2 million from age 22-58. Minimum. Make smart decisions on where you buy, and sell, your houses or property (You can make a nice return with half a brain, trust me, I have half a brain). So I think to really test someone, you need to offer more than $3 million, even if the odds are less.

In fact, that's the exercise: What is your minimum $$$ and odds. Big money, longer odds will be the young guys, the ones that think they're bulletproof. And really, it could be a good play in some cases. Older you get, $$$ should go down and odds get longer.

Fcuk! Berkman costs me my Under in the Astros, Padres game while I'm typing this.

Time value of money. The value of this bet also depends on how old you are. If you were offered this at 25, think about the compounding interest is on $3mm if you were to just put it into something returning 8%, compounding each year, that would result in over 20mm. Still a bad bet?

[yisman]

If I choose the wrong one in the first leg of this bet, the game is over. There is no 8/9 or 7/8.
If I am correct in the first leg and lose the second leg, the game is over. There is no 7/8.
If I am correct on the first and second leg, and lose the third leg, the game is over. Period.
If I am correct on all three legs, there is 6/7 remaining.


And if I had balls, I'd keep going until 5/6 and 4/5 if I was still alive. Then I'd quit and marry some hot Indian broad and move to an island somewhere.

Exactly. Like I was saying, you don't agree to all three at the beginning. You do it one by one.

Hence, it's not 30% after three.

[MexicanStallion]

I would take a shot with ten cups.

[Dark Horse]

You are offered by a guy 3 million dollars to do this and pretty much set for life...

You have 10 very small cups of PEPSI to drink. You must choose 1 to drink..

9 of them are great and cold and refreshing..... 1 of the cups has poison in it that will kill you in 5 minutes...

So you have a 9 in 10 chance (90%) of winning 3 million.. and a 1 in 10 chance..(10%) chance of dying..

So do you go for it, OR do you refuse? And be honest..

Whoever says YES.. is a real gambler.. whoever says NO, is not a real gambler.. That's how you can tell who the real gamblers are and who are not.. I call it the OFFICIAL nicky santoro test...

All you have proven is how much your life is worth to you. Apparently not very much.

Let's adjust the test slightly. There's a woman that you love like you wouldn't believe it. Definitely more than your life. Hard to believe, maybe, but just for sake of the test, she means everything to you. With her you're the happiest guy in the world, without her you're miserable. Would you let her drink the cup?

[TheIntegrityKid]

bump... so nicky can respond to dark horse...

[james4512]

Do any of you guys watch Las Vegas? In one of the episodes one of the workers from the montecito goes to an underground club and plays russian roulet. 1 :7 chance of dieing for only 20k, now thats a real gambler.

Going back to the question right now i would not do the 3 million dollar challenge, i got my health my youth and I'm working on my education. If school failed, i lost a lot of my friends, and my health wasnt that great i would jump at the opportunity to drink soda for 3 mill

[slapshot53]

NO, I GUESS I AM NOT A GAMBLER, I WOULD RATHER EAT A TWENTY YEAR OLD GORGEOUS BABE OUT AND HAVE HER DO ME ALL DAY.,

[oiler]

You are offered by a guy 3 million dollars to do this and pretty much set for life...

You have 10 very small cups of PEPSI to drink. You must choose 1 to drink..

9 of them are great and cold and refreshing..... 1 of the cups has poison in it that will kill you in 5 minutes...

So you have a 9 in 10 chance (90%) of winning 3 million.. and a 1 in 10 chance..(10%) chance of dying..

So do you go for it, OR do you refuse? And be honest..

Whoever says YES.. is a real gambler.. whoever says NO, is not a real gambler.. That's how you can tell who the real gamblers are and who are not.. I call it the OFFICIAL nicky santoro test...

damn for 3 million dollars i might drink two glasses lol

[jattanz]

I'd up the ante..

I would drink 5 out of 10 if they give me addition million per drink.

[yisman]

^ That's not very intelligent.

[konck]

I would drink 3 of them for 9 mill

[Sawyer]

You are offered by a guy 3 million dollars to do this and pretty much set for life...

You have 10 very small cups of PEPSI to drink. You must choose 1 to drink..

9 of them are great and cold and refreshing..... 1 of the cups has poison in it that will kill you in 5 minutes...

So you have a 9 in 10 chance (90%) of winning 3 million.. and a 1 in 10 chance..(10%) chance of dying..

So do you go for it, OR do you refuse? And be honest..

Whoever says YES.. is a real gambler.. whoever says NO, is not a real gambler.. That's how you can tell who the real gamblers are and who are not.. I call it the OFFICIAL nicky santoro test...

LoL, it's a value bet for me because even if 3 of the cups have poison, still I would pick this bet. We're talking about 3 Million here

[pimike]

Unreal

[dwaechte]

I'd do it.

Although for anyone who says they would, it's one thing to say it, it's another to actually go through if given the chance.

[sportscash]

i,d have to go 4 it.3 million is sweet.