So you think winning long term is impossible?

[Alfa1234]

Minden VS Stuttgart 2+2.5 at 1.72

[Alfa1234]

Guangzhou VS Dalian 2+1.5 at 3.45

[Alfa1234]

Fortuna VS Brondby Women X2 at 1.72
Kapfenberg VS Gmunden 1 min 5.5 at 1.89

[Alfa1234]

Tampere VS Kokkola X2 at 2.19
St Pauli VS Sandhausen O2.5 at 2.05

[Alfa1234]

PSG VS Lyon X2 at 4.1
Al Sareeh VS Shabab Al Ordon 1 at 4.98

[Alfa1234]

Minks VS Dnepr Mogilev 1 at 1.95

[Alfa1234]

Barcelona VS Athletic Bilbao 2 +1.5 at 2.75

[Alfa1234]

Man City VS Brighton O1.5 1H at 2.04

[Alfa1234]

Newry City VS Colerain 1x at 3.35

[danshan11]

I posted one play tonight - Yankees money line in the MLB thread (I try not to waste people's time on picks)

see why did you take the Yankees? I mean I think we argue oranges and apples when they are the same thing.
I make a "fair" line and compare it to game lines if its got space bet it Yanks -150 my line and for sale at -125 I buy it
you go and handicap the game and say yankees got a good chance (in general) so you say -125 is a good deal for their chances to win and you buy it. wtf is different?
i think yankees got a 57% chance of winning and I can pay 55% so i take it
you think probably darn near the same thing, so it really is not any different, now what we are capping is probably completely different but who knows. But is general I think we do the same thing, the only real argument is what is a good result, to me its beating the line and winning and to you its only winning, now that is 2 very different opinions
but if my fair line is wrong often i will lose overall and if your bet is wrong often you will lose too!

one other opinion of mine is this
if you dont beat the line overall you will lose money eventually (that might be 10000 games later but you will)
if you beat or dont beat the line but dont oveercome the variance requirement of a huge sample size (1000s of records) you could lose money and still be very talented

[danshan11]

argue with this argument
if you want to find out who is a good capper (assuming he has not seen todays lines )
ask him what you taking on the Yankees
answer 1 (NERF) Starter Jones has a 2.10 era, and his Fly ball rate is super low and its windy so Yankees
answer 2 (Square) you always take the big dog at the end of the season and Boston is coming off a 4 game win streak so they are hot
answer 3 (sharp) I got yankees -212 and if it closes below -195 I will take it

agree disagree ????

[Alfa1234]

I agree you cannot win long term by "picking" your games if those picks are not beating the closing line. You could get lucky for a long period of time with such a small sample size but it would still be nothing but luck. I'm 100% convinced winning long term cannot be done without beating the closing line.

Update, up 28.23 units for now with a bunch of games still to be played.

24/sep	Unterhaching VS Munich 1860 X2	1,8	0,8
	Nomme Kalju II VS Flora Tallinn II 1X	4,05	3,05
	Shanghai VS Xinjian X2	3,75	-1
	Slovan Liberec VS Spartak Prague 2	2,2	1,2
	Sporting VS Maritimo X2	4,65
	Crewe Alexandra VS Birmingham U23 2	1,8	-1
	Cardiff VS Millwall U23 1	2,4	-1
	Lotte VS Carl Zeiss Jena 2	3,2	-1
	Atletico Barranquilla VS Colon Santa Fe 1	1,95	0,95
	Necaxa VS Leon 2	3,55	2,55
	Glasgow Rangers VS Motherwell R 1	1,55	0,55
	Viktoria Koln VS Kaan Marienborn U1,5	5,2	-1
	Wattens VS Wacker Innbruck II X2 2,03	2,03	1,03
	Atletico VS Huesca 1 wins by 1	4	-1
26/sep	Indjija VS Zemun 1	3,58	-1
	Sigma Olomouc VS Trinec X2	5,5	-1
	Slavia Prague VS Usti X2	6,9	-1
	Esperance VS Stade Tunisien X2	4,2	3,2
	Tur Biels VS Termalici X2	5,55	-1
	Zirka VS Olimpik Donetsk 1X	8	7
	Cherkasskyi Vs Arsenal Kiev U2,5	1,7	-1
	West Ham VS Macclesfield O9,5 Corners	1,85	0,85
	Chernomorets Vs Spartak Moscow 1X	3,6	-1
	Arsenal Kiev VS Dynamo Kiev 1X	7,9
28/sep	Galatasaray VS Erzurumspor 1 wins by 1	4,45	3,45
	Norwich VS Man Utd U23 1X	1,77	-1
	Energia VS Fakel X2	2,18
	Metta VS Jurmala O2,5	1,96	0,96
	Munster VS Ulster 1 min 12,5	1,87
	Sabayil VS Agsu 1	1,85	0,85
	River Andorra VS Real Murcia 1 min 5,5	1,85	-1
	Connachts VS Leinster 2 min 4,5	1,87
	Rodovre VS Rungsted 2	1,98	-1
	Dundalk VS Dublin X2	6,9	-1
	Saracens VS Bath 1min19,5	1,87	0,87
29/sep	Australia VS New Zealand 1	1,44	0,44
	Copenhagen VS Svendborg 1+13,5	1,85	-1
	France VS Nigeria 2+13,5	1,86	-1
	Lech II VS Pogon Szczecin X2	3,85	-1
	Difaa el Jadida VS Tanger X	3,9	-1
	Antwerp Giants VS Cantu 2	2,03
	Reading VS Southampton U23 1X	1,7	0,7
	Minden VS Stuttgart 2+2,5	1,72
	Guangzhou VS Dalian 2+1,5	3,45	-1
	Tampere VS Kokkola GBK X2	2,19	-1
	St Pauli VS Sandhausen O2,5	2,05
	PSG VS Lyon X2	4,1
	Al Sareeh VS Shabab al Ordon 1	4,98
	Minsk VS Dnepr Mogilev 1	1,95	0,95
	Barcelona VS Athletic Bilbao 2+1,5	2,75	1,75
	Manchester City VS Brighton O1,5 1H	2,04	-1
	Newry City VS Colerain 1x	3,35	2,35
			28,23

[flakeandbake]

see why did you take the Yankees? I mean I think we argue oranges and apples when they are the same thing.
I make a "fair" line and compare it to game lines if its got space bet it Yanks -150 my line and for sale at -125 I buy it
you go and handicap the game and say yankees got a good chance (in general) so you say -125 is a good deal for their chances to win and you buy it. wtf is different?
i think yankees got a 57% chance of winning and I can pay 55% so i take it
you think probably darn near the same thing, so it really is not any different, now what we are capping is probably completely different but who knows. But is general I think we do the same thing, the only real argument is what is a good result, to me its beating the line and winning and to you its only winning, now that is 2 very different opinions
but if my fair line is wrong often i will lose overall and if your bet is wrong often you will lose too!

one other opinion of mine is this
if you dont beat the line overall you will lose money eventually (that might be 10000 games later but you will)
if you beat or dont beat the line but dont oveercome the variance requirement of a huge sample size (1000s of records) you could lose money and still be very talented

Cuz they were in an obvious spot pyscho

I'm on PSU at 4pm

Why? Because line has been stuck at 3/3.5 all week with 60% of the tickets being placed on OHST but 53% of the $ on PSU

I have a ton of PSU friends so I usually look to take the other side but I look to take State in spots where they are nervous. I find it hard to believe public is on OHST but those are the numbers

[flakeandbake]

You're not accounting for line movement, % of tickets being placed on either side or factoring the phychology of other bettors

[flakeandbake]

I'm on PSU at 7:30** sorry - I expect the line to move in to 2.5 if I'm going to win this bet

[flakeandbake]

I took the Yankees. Because there's a 60% chance that Yankees will play Boston in the playoffs in 2 weeks from now. And the MLB wants the Yankees to win this series so there will be more viewers in the event of that happening.

I usually don't look for that but it made sense to me

[danshan11]

what does the ticket count have to do with anything? I am not sure really understand how you can use that info to decide anything.
line movement how am I missing the boat here?
% of tickets what does that say to you if all the tickets are on the yanks they will win?
the psychology of other bettors is probably in my line in the sense that I do use the past lines in my model, so I kinda take that into account. are you talking about like how mayfield got so much exposure and the browns got hard knocks so they probably got a few more bucks on them from nerfs and squares and I agree except for the fact that sharps suck that back to right as fast as the squares bet it.

[flakeandbake]

what does the ticket count have to do with anything? I am not sure really understand how you can use that info to decide anything.
line movement how am I missing the boat here?
% of tickets what does that say to you if all the tickets are on the yanks they will win?
the psychology of other bettors is probably in my line in the sense that I do use the past lines in my model, so I kinda take that into account. are you talking about like how mayfield got so much exposure and the browns got hard knocks so they probably got a few more bucks on them from nerfs and squares and I agree except for the fact that sharps suck that back to right as fast as the squares bet it.

You look at where the line opened and closed and the % of the tickets on either side. Focus where there's 60% + of the tickets on both spread and money line of one side. And look to take opposite if lines reverse.

A good example today: Rutgers opened +17.5 and closed at +16.5 with only 28% of the tickets on Rutgers and 72% on Indiana. I liked this in particular bc Rutgers got embarrassed last weekend and a lot of people lost $ on that. So it was a good opportunity and a good shake out.

A bad example today: Pitt Panthers opened +15 and closed +13.5 with around 35% of the tickets on Pitt spread and 65% on UCF. I like to take Pitt in that situation but they are getting stomped.

If you only look for these kind of plays and play the entire board - you will lose $
My strategy is to try to find a game I like.. and then see the line move like I described as confirmation

If I have to explain this any further - use Google or you should never use #'s or say you're a "math guy"

https://www.sportsinsights.com/ncaaf/

[flakeandbake]

you made a great point about "sharps suck that back as fast as the squares bet it" - that's why I try to stick to the "sharp" side when "sharps" are more skeptical or nervous. I hate being on the same side as a crowded sharp play

Those plays I described are almost identical.. but there is one person on this forum who posted Pitt +13 is a lock.. I usually "command F" through the NCAAF thread to see if someone is on the same side but didn't

[danshan11]

You look at where the line opened and closed and the % of the tickets on either side. Focus where there's 60% + of the tickets on both spread and money line of one side. And look to take opposite if lines reverse.

A good example today: Rutgers opened +17.5 and closed at +16.5 with only 28% of the tickets on Rutgers and 72% on Indiana. I liked this in particular bc Rutgers got embarrassed last weekend and a lot of people lost $ on that. So it was a good opportunity and a good shake out.

A bad example today: Pitt Panthers opened +15 and closed +13.5 with around 35% of the tickets on Pitt spread and 65% on UCF. I like to take Pitt in that situation but they are getting stomped.

If you only look for these kind of plays and play the entire board - you will lose $
My strategy is to try to find a game I like.. and then see the line move like I described as confirmation

If I have to explain this any further - use Google or you should never use #'s or say you're a "math guy"


https://www.sportsinsights.com/ncaaf/

you explained what you do but you never explained why? I see zero value in any of that and why would you care where 60 70 or 80% of tickets are going? I mean really what difference could that possibly make? I dont see the relevance at all, please help me understand, thanks

[danshan11]

just looking through that list it does not look like the number of tickets on whatever side changed the ATS result. seems fairly random both ways. I cant put quantified value on a team getting embarrassed, say a team is not embarrassed last week and is a -7 favorite before last week and now they get embarrassed they now would be how big a favorite now? Also what is considered embarrassed a certain threshold or a tight loss against a bad opponent, what defines embarrassed and are their measurable levels of embarrassment?

[danshan11]

you made a great point about "sharps suck that back as fast as the squares bet it" - that's why I try to stick to the "sharp" side when "sharps" are more skeptical or nervous. I hate being on the same side as a crowded sharp play

Those plays I described are almost identical.. but there is one person on this forum who posted Pitt +13 is a lock.. I usually "command F" through the NCAAF thread to see if someone is on the same side but didn't

there is no sharp side to me
example Yankeees open high limit time at -150 and Rays are +130, Yankees get injury news on Stanton now -110 Guy A bets them at -110 and now Stanton will play and line is back to -150 and Rays +130, Guy B bets Rays +130 but now Yankees rest Judge and Hicks and bam game closes at yanks -115 Rays +115
guy A bet yanks -110 closed -115 got value sharp
guy b bet Rays +130 closed +115 got value sharp
of course not real or exact numbers but happens everyday, so the question is what do you consider the sharp side?

[flakeandbake]

PSU money line - done explaining

[flakeandbake]

You are a pundit

[danshan11]

my questions are legit dude, I am not trying to play games, I am asking how you make those decisions, sincerely

[flakeandbake]

Keepin it simple man:

"Because line has been stuck at 3/3.5 all week with 60% of the tickets being placed on OHST but 53% of the $ on PSU

I have a ton of PSU friends so I usually look to take the other side but I look to take State in spots where they are nervous. I find it hard to believe public is on OHST but those are the numbers"

[flakeandbake]

I literally have waited a year for this game - the public not being leveraged on it is good enough for me - let's see how it pans out

[danshan11]

I literally have waited a year for this game - the public not being leveraged on it is good enough for me - let's see how it pans out

I just dont see what 60% of the tickets and 50% of the money on the other side means.
if high ticket % but less of the money what does that mean, does it mean someone will win?

[flakeandbake]

This place is electric

[flakeandbake]

I just dont see what 60% of the tickets and 50% of the money on the other side means.
if high ticket % but less of the money what does that mean, does it mean someone will win?

Why don't you just tail me for $100.. it's probably a pick live.. then maybe you'll open up your eye balls

[flakeandbake]

guarantee it's a pick live

[danshan11]

good luck hope you win!

[Alfa1234]

Flakeandbake you are looking for signs that aren't there...I can guarantee you you may win a few but will lose once your sample size becomes big enough. You are rationalising and looking for bets based on things that have 0 influence on the game.

Sunday 30 sept:

Sport Boys Warnes VS Guabira X2 at 1.89
Bologna VS Udinese U4.5 Bookings at 1.85
Red Bull Salzburg VS Fehervar 1min2.5 at 3.1
Shanghai VS Guangzhou 1min1.5 at 2.24

[Alfa1234]

Sumqayit VS Zira 1 at 2.25

[Alfa1234]

Floro VS Viking 1x at 2.1