So you think winning long term is impossible?

**Alfa1234** · 10-14-18, 05:05 AM

Sunday 14 Oct.

Lodz VS Czarni Sosnowiec Women 1X at 2.02
Bristol VS Birmingham Women 2 at 1.68
ACS Poli VS Ripensia Timisoara 1X at 2.09
Burgdorf VS Erlangen DNB 2 at 10.31
Syrianska VS Skelleftea X2 at 7.4

**Alfa1234** · 10-14-18, 06:38 AM

Al Wahda VS Al Fujairah X2 at 6.9

**Alfa1234** · 10-14-18, 07:54 AM

Zapy VS Dobrovice X2 at 3.05

**Alfa1234** · 10-14-18, 09:45 AM

Huetor Vega VS El Palo 1X at 1.73

**Alfa1234** · 10-14-18, 03:03 PM

Update, up 43.82 units now. Few games still open.

12/okt	Sardegna VS Varese O158,5	2,4	-1
	Golden Stake VS Lakers 2 +11,5	1,64	0,64
	Sport Boys VS Allianza Lima 2	2
	South Korea VS Uruguay 1	3,91	2,91
	Torpedo Vladimir VS Leningrad 1X	1,15	-1
	Osnabruck VS Werder Bremen 1X	2,44	-1
	Cedevita Zagreb VS Mega 2+11,5	2	1
	Defensor Sporting VS Aguada 2+8,5	1,74	-1
	Portland VS Sacramento 1	1,65	0,65
	Dynamo Bucurest VS Craiova 2min4,5	1,8	0,8
	Knicks VS Nets O224,5	2,26	-1
	Italy VS Finland U19 X2	9,8	-1
	Orlando VS Spurs O213,5	2,4	-1
	Lapuan VS Pyrinto 2min6,5	1,8	0,8
	Tropezon VS Siete Villas X2	3,25	2,25
	Escobedo VS Velarde X2	3,4	-1
	Rudes VS Domzale 1x	1,73	0,73
	Hartberg Vs Wiener Neustadt X2	2,6	1,6
	Sturm Graz VS Celje X2	2,2	-1
	Salford VS Braintree X2	4,5	3,5
	Germany VS Netherlands U20 U2,5	2,27	1,27
	Heerenveen VS Ajax W 1X	2,64	1,64
13/okt	Progress Super Nova VS RTU X2	3,95	-1
	CSKA Moscow VS Amur 2+2,5	1,87	-1
	Auces VS El Nacional 1	1,9	0,9
	Troyes VS Sochaux X2	2,3
	PK-35 VS Jypkt Women X2	6,5	-1
	Nancy VS Grenoble X2	1,66
	Seville VS Atletico Women 1X	6,1	-1
	Odder VS Vejgaard X2	1,87	0,87
	Denmark VS Estonia U19 X2	7,9	-1
	Roa VS Lillestrom Women 1X	3,65	2,65
	Medimurje VS Hajduk X2	1,94	0,94
	Osijek VS Varazdin 1X	2,01	1,01
	Armenia VS Gibraltar O9,5 Corners	1,9	0,9
	Raiffeisen VS Wels 2min10,5	1,85	0,85
	OH Leuven VS Ghent 1X	7,4	-1
	Rapla VS Valmiera 1min8,5	1,75	0,75
	Grazer VS Allerheiligen X2	2,44	-1
	Nashville VS Cincinnati 1X	1,99	0,99
14/okt	Lodz VS Czarni Sosnowiec Women 1X	2,02	-1
	Al Wahda VS Al Fujairah X2	6,9	-1
	Bristol VS Birmingham Women 2	1,68	0,68
	ACS Poli VS ripensia Poli Timisoara X2	2,09	1,09
	Burgdorf VS Erlangen DNB 2	10,31	-1
	Syrianska VS Skelleftea X2	7,4	-1
	Zapy VS Dobrovice X2	3,05	-1
	Huetor Vega VS El Palo 1X	1,73	-1



			43,82

Edit: for the sake of transparancy, there was a typo in 1 of my picks today (as you can check with the odd taken on oddsportal). The Timisoara pick was actually X2, not 1X.

**bhoor** · 10-14-18, 03:14 PM

Alfa, what's your unit size?

**Alfa1234** · 10-15-18, 03:15 AM

Originally posted by bhoor

Alfa, what's your unit size?

I don't bet units actually, I use a "to win" amount myself depending on the odd.

Say my to win amount is 500, I'd bet 250 if my projected odd (the line I calculated that would be correct) was 2.0 . That means I would actually win more if that bet would win because the odd I take is always higher than my projected odd - otherwise there would be no value.

Say I find a bet, the odd I take is 2.5 but my projected correct line for this game is 2.2 (that's with the juice corrected for) I would bet 230 (rounded) if my to win amount were to be 500.

Up until last week that profit was slightly lower compared to the profit if I had been betting a fixed unit size, but this week that changed and my "to win" profit amount has exceeded the fixed unit profit for the first time. Not giving exact bet amounts though, sorry. Happy to post some tickets if you want but you'll still not know as I have multiple tickets/bet.

**Alfa1234** · 10-15-18, 05:08 AM

15 Oct.

Haifa rubi Shapira VS Ironi Tiberias 1 at 2.4

**Alfa1234** · 10-15-18, 05:18 AM

America Mineiro VS Gremio 1 at 3.15

**Alfa1234** · 10-15-18, 05:44 AM

Rosenborg II VS Levanger II X2 at 4.5

**Alfa1234** · 10-15-18, 06:32 AM

Vejle VS Helsingor Reserves 1 at 2.2

**Alfa1234** · 10-15-18, 07:31 AM

Sheffield VS Barnsley U23 X2 at 2.31
Waasland VS Antwerp U21 1X at 2.8
Hapoel Shfaram VS Tira 2 at 2.2
Iceland VS Spain U21 1X at 5.05
Kazachstan VS Andorra BTSN at 1.39

**Alfa1234** · 10-15-18, 09:02 AM

Germany VS Ireland U21 X2 at 5.5
Oppsal VS Kongsvinger U19 X2 at 1.88

**Alfa1234** · 10-16-18, 07:50 AM

2 quick ones today:

Connah VS Cefn Druids X2 at 4.45
Burgdorf VS Lemgo 2+3.5 at 2.06

**bhoor** · 10-16-18, 07:59 AM

Originally posted by Alfa1234

I don't bet units actually, I use a "to win" amount myself depending on the odd.

Say my to win amount is 500, I'd bet 250 if my projected odd (the line I calculated that would be correct) was 2.0 . That means I would actually win more if that bet would win because the odd I take is always higher than my projected odd - otherwise there would be no value.

Say I find a bet, the odd I take is 2.5 but my projected correct line for this game is 2.2 (that's with the juice corrected for) I would bet 230 (rounded) if my to win amount were to be 500.

Up until last week that profit was slightly lower compared to the profit if I had been betting a fixed unit size, but this week that changed and my "to win" profit amount has exceeded the fixed unit profit for the first time. Not giving exact bet amounts though, sorry. Happy to post some tickets if you want but you'll still not know as I have multiple tickets/bet.

It's all good.

**Alfa1234** · 10-17-18, 04:37 AM

Update, up 43.69 units now. Few games still open.

13/okt	Progress Super Nova VS RTU X2	3,95	-1
	CSKA Moscow VS Amur 2+2,5	1,87	-1
	Auces VS El Nacional 1	1,9	0,9
	Troyes VS Sochaux X2	2,3
	PK-35 VS Jypkt Women X2	6,5	-1
	Nancy VS Grenoble X2	1,66
	Seville VS Atletico Women 1X	6,1	-1
	Odder VS Vejgaard X2	1,87	0,87
	Denmark VS Estonia U19 X2	7,9	-1
	Roa VS Lillestrom Women 1X	3,65	2,65
	Medimurje VS Hajduk X2	1,94	0,94
	Osijek VS Varazdin 1X	2,01	1,01
	Armenia VS Gibraltar O9,5 Corners	1,9	0,9
	Raiffeisen VS Wels 2min10,5	1,85	0,85
	OH Leuven VS Ghent Women 1X	7,4	-1
	Rapla VS Valmiera 1min8,5	1,75	0,75
	Grazer VS Allerheiligen X2	2,44	-1
	Nashville VS Cincinnati 1X	1,99	0,99
14/okt	Lodz VS Czarni Sosnowiec Women 1X	2,02	-1
	Al Wahda VS Al Fujairah X2	6,9	-1
	Bristol VS Birmingham Women 2	1,68	0,68
	ACS Poli VS ripensia Poli Timisoara X2	2,09	1,09
	Burgdorf VS Erlangen DNB 2	10,31	-1
	Syrianska VS Skelleftea X2	7,4	-1
	Zapy VS Dobrovice X2	3,05	-1
	Huetor Vega VS El Palo 1X	1,73	-1
15/okt	Haifa Rubi Shapira VS Ironi Tiberias 1	2,4	1,4
	America Mineiro VS Gremio 1	3,15
	Rosenborg II VS Levanger II X2	4,5	-1
	Vejle VS Helsingor Reserves 1	2,2	1,2
	Sheffield VS Barnsley U21 X2	2,31	-1
	Waasland VS Antwerp U21 1X	2,8	1,8
	Hapoel Shfaram VS Tira 2	2,2	1,2
	Iceland VS Spain U21 1X	5,05	-1
	Kazachstan VS Andorra BTSN	1,39	0,39
	Germany VS Ireland U21 X2	5,5	-1
	Oppsal VS Kongsvinger X2	1,88	0,88
16/okt	Connahs VS Cefn Druids	4,45	-1
	Burgdorf VS Lemgo 2+3,5	2,06	-1





			43,69

**Alfa1234** · 10-17-18, 04:57 AM

Wednesday 17 Oct.

Chelsea VS Fiorentina Women X2 at 4.85

**RocketFan** · 10-17-18, 05:14 AM

no, its a zero sum game at best for anybody

**Alfa1234** · 10-17-18, 05:21 AM

Wolfsburg VS Atletico women X2 at 8.3
Leicester Riders VS Sardegna 2min16.5 at 1.85

**Alfa1234** · 10-17-18, 05:43 AM

Originally posted by RocketFan

no, its a zero sum game at best for anybody

Not everybody.

Aue VS Hamm Westfalen X2 at 1.96

**Alfa1234** · 10-17-18, 06:37 AM

Tsmoki VS Mons 2+6.5 at 1.9
Mechelen VS Beerschot 1X at 1.31

**Alfa1234** · 10-17-18, 07:19 AM

Washington VS NY Rangers 1min2.5 at 3.02
Vranje VS Crvena Zvezda 1HO2.5 at 3.29

**Alfa1234** · 10-17-18, 07:33 AM

Boyaca Chico VS Jaguares 1 at 1.85

**Alfa1234** · 10-17-18, 08:39 AM

Delhi VS Kolkata U2.5 at 2.0

**Alfa1234** · 10-17-18, 09:30 AM

Zorky Krasnogorsk VS Kaluga U2.5 at 1.99

**Alfa1234** · 10-17-18, 10:07 AM

Kontaveit VS Jabeur 2-0 at 2.35
Flensburg VS Magdeburg 2+2.5 at 1.8

**Alfa1234** · 10-18-18, 04:44 AM

Update:

15/okt	Haifa Rubi Shapira VS Ironi Tiberias 1	2,4	1,4
	America Mineiro VS Gremio 1	3,15
	Rosenborg II VS Levanger II X2	4,5	-1
	Vejle VS Helsingor Reserves 1	2,2	1,2
	Sheffield VS Barnsley U21 X2	2,31	-1
	Waasland VS Antwerp U21 1X	2,8	1,8
	Hapoel Shfaram VS Tira 2	2,2	1,2
	Iceland VS Spain U21 1X	5,05	-1
	Kazachstan VS Andorra BTSN	1,39	0,39
	Germany VS Ireland U21 X2	5,5	-1
	Oppsal VS Kongsvinger X2	1,88	0,88
16/okt	Connahs VS Cefn Druids	4,45	-1
	Burgdorf VS Lemgo 2+3,5	2,06	-1
17/okt	Chelsea VS Fiorentina Women X2	4,85	-1
	Wolfsburg VS Atletico Women X2	8,3	-1
	Leicester Riders VS Sardegna 2min16,5	1,85	-1
	Aue VS Hamm Westfalen X2	1,96
	Tsmoki VS Mons 2+6,5	1,9	-1
	Mechelen VS Beerschot 1X	1,31
	Washington VS NY Rangers 1min2,5	3,02	-1
	Vranje VS Crvena Zvezda 1H O2,5	3,29	-1
	Boyaca Chico VS Jaguares 1	1,85	0,85
	Delhi VS Kolkata U2,5	2	-1
	Zorky Krasnogorsk VS Kaluga U2,5	1,99	0,99
	Kontaveit VS Jabeur 2-0	2,35
	Flensburg VS Magdeburg 2+2,5	1,8	0,8





			39,33

**Alfa1234** · 10-19-18, 05:29 AM

Friday 19 Oct:

Spartak Moscow VS Arsenal Tula U21 X2 at 2.41
Texas VS Iowa (AHL) 1 at 2.3
Sumquit VS Neftchi Baku X2 at 1.95
Kassel VS Kaufbeuren 1min1.5 at 2.74
Manitoba Moose VS San Antonio Rampage 1 at 2.22

**Alfa1234** · 10-19-18, 05:55 AM

Tottenham VS Leicester U21 2 at 1.82
Shuvalan VS Zaqatala X2 at 2.29

**Alfa1234** · 10-19-18, 06:12 AM

Talleres VS Almirante Brown 1 at 2.45

**Alfa1234** · 10-19-18, 06:37 AM

Lyon VS Nimes O3.5 at 2.31
Western Province VS Blue Bulls 1min 18.5 at 1.87
Al Ahli VS Al Wihdat 2 at 1.95

**Alfa1234** · 10-19-18, 07:43 AM

Ross VS Ayr 1 at 1.87
El Nacional VS Universidad 2 at 2.38

**Alfa1234** · 10-19-18, 09:08 AM

Vitebsk VS Dnepr Mogilev BTSN at 1.46

**Alfa1234** · 10-19-18, 09:30 AM

Vichy Clermont VS Paris 1 at 1.83

**Alfa1234** · 10-20-18, 05:27 AM

Busy Saturday. 20 Oct. Sorry, been busy so have not updated the picks today. No games started yet but some picks over an hour old.

Radnikci VS Zemun X2 at 6.5
Guizhou VS Dalian 1 min 1.5 at 2.02
This line moved a great deal, not in my favour so I also took X2 at 3.4 just now, but not including it in the picks as I used a lower stake.
Rhein Neckar VS Fuchse 1 min 4.5 at 1.79
Apollon Limassol VS Ermis X2 at 6.5
Gorica VS Maribor 2 at 1.55
Real VS Levante exact 2 or 3 goals at 3.1
Arendal VS Flekkeroy U3.5 at 1.91
Chongqing Lifan VS Hebei X2 at 3.4
Manchester City VS Chelsea U23 X2 at 1.67