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bankroll and bet size only determines how good you are over an extended period of time.
for example if you were like me and started betting 12 years ago at $25 a pop and 12 years later are still betting the same amount you are a garbage handicapper and have probably wasted 1000's of hours with no returnComment -
Let's assume you dont spend a penny of your bankroll just use it to gamble, if you have a 1% edge you should be profiting what .001% per bet so it can take a little while to see any significant growth, the biggest problem is we commingle our funds and the picture gets blurry and we unfortunately rarely really have an edge.Comment -
If you wager 2 games per year at $25 per wager, & hit 60% every year, (which isn't going to happen) you'd profit $2500-$3000 per year.
PER YEAR
That is not enough to change someones lifestyle or betting style/size if they are living off a week to week paycheck.
Goes back to the old saying.
"You have to have money to make money"Comment -
difference of opinion?
he is talking about hot streaks in the think tank section
hot streaks aint an opinion its a blatant disrespect to sportsbetting in generalComment -
I think the problem is tsty you just say short little blurts calling people out and not kindly,I think if you left out retard, idiot and etc and clarified your position a little more than just " Idiot, dont know first thing about betting", you have good ideas if you just shared them and did not just call people stupid it would help us all and maybe you!Comment -
Bet size is a problem . For years i have worked systems that are just below break even. It pays to use small bets and bankroll discipline. Now if after tweaking or having a lucky run I find I am so scared or programmed that I cannot give up the discipline and increase wager size thus losing out on profits. Advice?Comment -
why would you work a system that is just below break even?
if you dont have a real edge then dont bet unless its recreational if its recreational have fun and bet what you can afford to lose and enjoy yourself!Comment -
I would ask myself that plenty of times. One thing is that my or any player's % never stays consistent. I would have to look at my spread sheet records over 6 mos or a year to even figure it. The other thing is staying in live action(with strict bankroll discipline) has motivated me to improve. Dont get me wrong, when I was at 49% accuracy i would do plenty of practice worksheet picks.Comment -
what you need to do is look at your next bet and make sure you actually have an edge, maybe do that for 10 or so bets and see if you are seeing an edge against the lineComment -
Thanks Danshan, I will try thatComment -
My old sheet did this automatically, and I'm creating a new Excel sheet that will do it once I get the automation for bringing up events is finished.
That said, the best system for winning is to establish a rigidly-monitored system to use your bet amounts in accordance to your bankroll. If you are new to betting, or even a seasoned player, using a rigid method is the best way to ensure you can maximize your chances at profit-KEEPING, not just profit-MAKING. This is it in a nutshell.
1. Establish a complete bankroll, and make sure that that bankroll is not needed for anything else in your life, such as rent, mortgage, car payments, food, women...or any other necessity. In short, if you can afford to lose it on the sidewalk without negatively affecting your life, then it's ok. For a beginner, if you are a "small" player ($1 to 5$ bets), then a bankroll of $100 to $200 would be adequate for the most part. I recommend a minimum of $500, with a typical bankroll to start around $1000.
2. For now, the assumption is that you are making bets on games (hereafter called "events") with spreads that establishes betting the same amount on either team by giving points (betting the favorite) or receiving points (betting the underdog), or at least events with moneylines that average out to betting the same amount over time (Baseball betting is typically done in this manner).
3. Next, assess the relative "strength" of such an event. I recommend using the "5-unit" system, where each event is rated by its relative likelihood of coming out victorious on a scale of 1 - 5. (Handicappers may advertise their picks based upon this type of strength, such as "3-star" or "5-point" picks. You can use your own judgment in that case.)
4. Your bet amount should equal the following formula: (Bankroll amount/100) times unit amount. You can have more than one bet as well, but the total amount of all your bets should never be more than 15% to 20% of your total bankroll. Example: With a $1,000 bankroll, and a bet of 3 units, you would calculate this to be $1000/100 * 3, or $30 for the bet.
5. If you win your bet, your new bankroll will be about 1,000, + bet winnings of ~$27 (after the bookmaker takes their percentage, in this case around 10 percent). So your new bankroll would be 1,027, and this is the figure you work with to figure out the amount of your next bet. In the case of 3 units for the next bet, the bet amount would be $1027/100 * 3, or $31 (rounded to nearest dollar).
6. But constantly using your bankroll as a gauge, adjust your bet amounts through the season. You can also adjust your bets so you bet a minimum amount per unit, but in general do not bet significantly more nor less than what the calculation calls for.
If you follow the steps above, as a minimum you will last for awhile. This type of system works well when you bet no more than two events at a time, and in most cases following the calculations faithfully and rigidly will at least keep you solvent, if not profitable, for the entire season. With your own judgment, you can even increase the bet amount percentage, say to 1.5% or even 2% of your bankroll per unit, up to 10% of your bankroll for a 5-unit bet. But never arbitrarily change your percentage within a season without creating the conditions for when that happens. Typically, if you are doing well in a season, you can increase the percentage per unit, but as always, let your experience be your guide.
For newbies (and this includes those who have bet for years without a rigid system), I'd concentrate on going through an entire season, or a fixed-calendar month period (say, six months) per bankroll, and don't make ANY adjustments outside of the formula above. Once you are more acclimated to the system of betting, you can make your own individual adjustments. Good luck!Comment -
This is limited to Football. NO other sport in my scenario. It is the only sport I wager on seriously. Some real good ideas in here, and some real poor ideas. The first thing that ALL of you in here have to do is get rid of some myths. ALL of you have no idea how a sports book operates. Oh sure, you know the basics, but that is as far as it goes. Do you know how books set the original line? Do you know who books allow to wager on the original line before it is released to Joe Pub? Do you know how people commonly referred in here to as "Sharps" actually operate? Do you have any idea what the target winning percentage of a professional gambler really is?
Try those on for size and get back to meComment -
how do they set the line ?
books use a power ranking system and a model that analyzes those power rankings and adjust for injuries weather and rest
who do the books allow to bet their line before john Q ?
no idea and who cares what impact does this have on my betting and is this a standard or one out of a million books? even though still why does this matter?
how do sharps operate?
I think most sharps do things completely different of each other and in my opinion I think sharps are way fewer than many even though most think because the crush lines they are sharp this is just not true because of volume requirements and funding.
I think the target winning % "pro bettors"
plus line value most probably work around 1 to 2% above the margin is where they average out.
I just dont see how these things really way heavy on what I do, obviously I cant operate like that or I would not be here entertaining you, LOLComment -
I bet you cannot find 5 NFL bets after limits went up where the line moved enough to cover the margin over 1% or so, the pickings are very thin in the NFL. I know most of you guys can beat the market but in reality there is very little room in the NFL.
example the Rams have moved from -270 to -320 that is 3% of line value even if you bought that at the absolute lowest -270 and it closed at -320 you would make less than .5% against the margin. I know we are good but that is really good!
you bet 10 grand on that game you make about 50 bucks per bet in the long haulComment -
Nerf, I hate to break you the bad news, but you are way off on a lot of things. You stated: "how do they set the line ?
books use a power ranking system and a model that analyzes those power rankings and adjust for injuries weather and rest..."
Here is a list of NFL Week 5 wagers from CG Technologies.
Week 5
Thursday Oct. 4, 2018
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10.5)
Sunday Oct. 7, 2018
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (Pick 'em)
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+1)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-1)
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (+1.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-6)
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5)
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+1)
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3)
Monday Oct. 8, 2018
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
Would you like to tell me when these lines came out?Comment -
no I have no idea why does it matter, and why do you keep asking these questions and not just say whatever you got to say?Comment -
I know something you dont nah nah nah!!!! hey bigdaddylonglegs why do snakes eat bird shit? dont know hmmmm!Comment -
It matters because you are WRONG and are passing out bad information. You are a Square. What you are saying is WRONG! Want to compare this weeks games?
Thursday Sept. 27, 2018
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (-3) Now -7
Sunday Sept. 30, 2018
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-7) Now -5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-2.5) Now -3
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-4) Now -3
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-9.5) Now -10
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans (+1.5) Now +4
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+3) Now INDY -1
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-11) Now -7
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5) Now -7.5
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-7.5) Now -2.5
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (Pick 'em) Now Seattle -3.5
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (+2.5) Now +3.5
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) Now -10
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) Now -3
Monday Oct. 1, 2018
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos -1 Now KC -4.5
So in reality, you know absolutely nothing about sports wagering and here you are, mouthing off, trying to tell people that you do. You DO NOT! Why don't you try learning from someone that does know a few things about wagering football. Another sure sign of a square. They always think they are right.Comment -
yes I know CG puts out early aug numbers for early bird bettors with low limits and of course people use those to set their season win totals and blah blah blah, still this is irrelevant.
reply #2 do I know anything about sports betting absolutely not am I square no not at all, I am a NERF and if you read any of my posts I have said this many times before today.
I cant believe you were able to tear apart those openers and create tons of value cause you knew
Bell would hold out, Winston would be suspended, Garapalo would blow a knee, Mack would be traded and so many more stories since those lines came out in August, I say cheerio to you for having the sharpness to know all that and bet those lines accordingly in advance.
I still do not hear your explanation of all these vital facts you know and seem to imply they are so important please share them.
and please please tell me how a line is set for the NFL I am dying to know your explanation and how I am wrong, please open with that. I will save you some typing Danshan NERF is dumb, he knows nothing, he could not cap his way out of a soccer match up by 3 in the 94th minute. Now you can skip all that and just explain, please I am dying for this!Comment -
I think bigdaddy got drunk last night and jumped on the forum all fired up, probably had the yankees!Comment -
Using CG as relevance, rofl.Comment -
he never came back, he got black out drunk posted this shit to me and then got up the next day and was like oh shit what did i say, wtf huh, LMAO this dude is a trip!Comment -
constantly betting $500 wont get you anywhereComment -
Are the NL25 Poker Players any better than the NL2 Players ?
...not much IMOComment
