Does Your Bankroll & Betting Size Determine How Good A Handicapper You Are?

[grey area]

I make a lot of money every month outside of sports but still only bet 20- 120 a game mostly, a few rare times have bet a books max and payed dearly doing so

[tsty]

I hope this is a troll lol

Money made is all that matters

[tsty]

Saying you have to have a lot of money to be a good handicapper is the same as saying only rich ppl are born intelligent.

What? How is that even remotely the same?

How are you a moderator?

[jjgold]

my $1 bets probably high higher % than my $100 bets

[tsty]

This thread reminds of the basketball players that dominate the rec league who think they could take an nba player in 1v1

basketball is basketball right

[danshan11]

I think I said that just in a way nicer way in my post above, dont you agree?

[keel44]

It is not about how much, it is the why. You better come up with logical reasons in reference to the line as to why you chose a side or total. It also must be sustainable and repeatable for many trials.

Case Closed.

[tsty]

It is not about how much, it is the why. You better come up with logical reasons in reference to the line as to why you chose a side or total. It also must be sustainable and repeatable for many trials.

Case Closed.

huh? you don't need to come with a reason

the model does that

[keel44]

Models have reasons....most people dont have models or GOOD reasons

[tsty]

Models have reasons....most people dont have models or GOOD reasons

most people are not sportsbettors

what's your point?

[keel44]

It is not about how much, it is the why. You better come up with logical reasons in reference to the line as to why you chose a side or total. It also must be sustainable and repeatable for many trials.

Case Closed.

Read this again. This describes what a good handicapper must do. The amount of their bankroll does not matter. It is the methodology.

[danshan11]

In the end, don't study winners to see what caused them; study the process to see whether it consistently led to success.

[danshan11]

It is amazing the number of people who will tail a complete loser because he is + after 10 or 20 games. You ONLY win if you can set a fair line and that fair line when you bet is sharper than the line you bet at.
You bet the Yankees at -150 and they close -180 you are doing good and if you can sustain that over 100s of games you MIGHT have a chance
you bet the Yankees -150 and they close -155 you are dead, maybe you are still squirming but you are dead!

if you can do the first scenario you more than likely after 100s of games will see sustained growth MAYBE
if you can do scenario 2 you WILL keep adding money to your book account FOR SURE

[tsty]

Read this again. This describes what a good handicapper must do. The amount of their bankroll does not matter. It is the methodology.

yeh im sure the best sportsbettor in the world has a 1k bankroll right lol

What you guys are arguing is that an investment firm that deals in the thousands is superior to one that deals in the millons just because they might have a higher roi...

investing is investing right?

it doesnt matter how big their portfolio is right

fking lol so much delusion from people betting peanuts

[keel44]

yeh im sure the best sportsbettor in the world has a 1k bankroll right lol

What you guys are arguing is that an investment firm that deals in the thousands is superior to one that deals in the millons just because they might have a higher roi...

investing is investing right?

it doesnt matter how big their portfolio is right

fking lol so much delusion from people betting peanuts

You got to start somewhere.

[SportsSharingun]

I think someone with a small bankroll, such as myself, can be a good bettor.

However my opinion of this is analogous to playing in professional sports. Can you perform under all the lights, or are you someone that can only make a jumpshot in practice?

If you're operating on a 50k bankroll, and you're making unit bets of 1k each, can you retain your discipline/calm to pick good EV bets when you risk losing a thousand dollars? Can you retain that discipline to not chase bets at that amount?

So in that sense I think winning with a larger bankroll shows more, than winning with a smaller one, but obviously there's good bettors operating with smaller (for now) bankrolls.

[danshan11]

I think someone with a small bankroll, such as myself, can be a good bettor.

However my opinion of this is analogous to playing in professional sports. Can you perform under all the lights, or are you someone that can only make a jumpshot in practice?

If you're operating on a 50k bankroll, and you're making unit bets of 1k each, can you retain your discipline/calm to pick good EV bets when you risk losing a thousand dollars? Can you retain that discipline to not chase bets at that amount?

So in that sense I think winning with a larger bankroll shows more, than winning with a smaller one, but obviously there's good bettors operating with smaller (for now) bankrolls.

the game drastically changes when I was betting 250s I could see way easier returns than when I jumped up to 3k bets. 250s you can get down anywhere can get opening lines and more at 3k you are competing against seasoned lines and not betting until after last game first pitch night before at best and really risking getting limited. I personally have never got limited at pinnacle but I think people say they do but I never was good enough or made enough to make them consider it. I am a brand new rookie at this and I already can say if you beat the line at 250 there is a good chance if you moved to 2500 per you might not be able to beat the line and for sure wont have the same bets.

[SportsSharingun]

Interesting, I'm not at that bankroll but thats good to know. That explains why those books can handle pro customers. Have you ever been limited at bookmaker?

[danshan11]

Interesting, I'm not at that bankroll but thats good to know. That explains why those books can handle pro customers. Have you ever been limited at bookmaker?

I would never use bookmaker, I have a hard time even competing against pinnacles margins besides a few cents higher, there is no way I would stand a chance to win at a few cents higher per line.

[SportsSharingun]

I would never use bookmaker, I have a hard time even competing against pinnacles margins besides a few cents higher, there is no way I would stand a chance to win at a few cents higher per line.

Thanks. Definitely keep this in mind down the line.

[PaperTrail07]

Like many people betting....management gets me every fuckn time....betting 100's on shit I don't like bc I'm up....then bankroll down betting games I LOVE LOVE small lol......we have all been there before.....Discipline is tough when mixed with anger....$ problems ect.....there is more to betting than picking the right side.... and like TATTDY did...sometimes (which I respect) he knew that if your head is messed up and you cant give 100% to the focus....you might as well pull out completely...

[PaperTrail07]

but I am A LITTLE TORN HERE....KIND OF LIKE WHEN hugO BETS MMA.....THE sheer number of Units he has out in 1 night is insanity and shows a long term grind or a GIGANTIC account....of 10K-20K plus....which TO ME is a big bankroll.....when a bettor can simply say they live bet or martingaled a huge loss....it just not that easy to believe......

Can a $10 Bettor be as good as a $500+ Bettor?

If so, then why do some poke fun at others who make very small wagers?

If you're good, you're good, right?

[danshan11]

but I am A LITTLE TORN HERE....KIND OF LIKE WHEN hugO BETS MMA.....THE sheer number of Units he has out in 1 night is insanity and shows a long term grind or a GIGANTIC account....of 10K-20K plus....which TO ME is a big bankroll.....when a bettor can simply say they live bet or martingaled a huge loss....it just not that easy to believe......

for minimal risk of death and good return bet 1.XX to win 1% of bankroll on faves and .XX to win 1% of bankroll on dogs. this strategy will never do you wrong BUT BEFORE you do any of that know who you are, are you a rec bettor if so have fun and this will make your money last the longest if you want to make money DONT BET until you KNOW you actually have an EDGE.

[SportsSharingun]

for minimal risk of death and good return bet 1.XX to win 1% of bankroll on faves and .XX to win 1% of bankroll on dogs. this strategy will never do you wrong BUT BEFORE you do any of that know who you are, are you a rec bettor if so have fun and this will make your money last the longest if you want to make money DONT BET until you KNOW you actually have an EDGE.

Do you personally think its best to set up bets so that the bet= 1 unit or that the winnings = 1 unit? Or simply preference just as long as your bets are relatively consistent/small?

It also looks like your method prohibits betting on -200 baseball favorites (which I tend to agree with).

[thechaoz]

Good point

I respect some $50 bettors a lot more than dime bettors

Size of wager does not matter on how good a guy is

as long as they are following bankroll rules, being somewhat successful, and slowly building for bigger br in the future, then yes a $10 better could be better than $1, 000 better

[2daBank]

Fukk no., back in the day when I was a young dumb full of you know what kid who made a lot of illegal cash I bet way more than I do now and like most cats around here I was pretty clueless when it came to the art of capping games. Now days I think most would agree I’m a pretty solid capper and I bet far less..

Any idiot w money can bet large amounts, certainly doesn’t mean he has a clue! Obviously some folks don’t realize this as in the very near future we will have tons of clowns posting their fake ass Monopoly money wagers as if that somehow legitimizes them.

[danshan11]

Do you personally think its best to set up bets so that the bet= 1 unit or that the winnings = 1 unit? Or simply preference just as long as your bets are relatively consistent/small?

It also looks like your method prohibits betting on -200 baseball favorites (which I tend to agree with).

example of my method bankroll $1000 1% is $10 so 1 unit in a $1k bankroll would be $10
yankees -200 bet 20 to win 10
dodgers +200 bet 5 to win 10
blue jays +100 bet 10 to win 10
Rockies -145 bet 14.50 to win 10
hope that makes more sense

the theory is that you have more money on things more likely to occur and you can stretch out your plays longer.
its hard NOT impossible to go broke betting 1% of bankroll on things that will be 50/50

[SportsSharingun]

example of my method bankroll $1000 1% is $10 so 1 unit in a $1k bankroll would be $10
yankees -200 bet 20 to win 10
dodgers +200 bet 5 to win 10
blue jays +100 bet 10 to win 10
Rockies -145 bet 14.50 to win 10
hope that makes more sense

the theory is that you have more money on things more likely to occur and you can stretch out your plays longer.
its hard NOT impossible to go broke betting 1% of bankroll on things that will be 50/50

That makes a lot of sense for rec players. Although I don't know if I'd recommend going above 1.5 units on baseball favorites, particularly on popular teams.

[danshan11]

That makes a lot of sense for rec players. Although I don't know if I'd recommend going above 1.5 units on baseball favorites, particularly on popular teams.

I try to bet value, if there is value at -350 I will take it even at +400, value is value

[2daBank]

I try to bet value, if there is value at -350 I will take it even at +400, value is value

There never once in the history of modern day baseball where there was value in a team -350 (prob not even -250 to be honest, teams simply don’t win at that high of a clip in this sport).

[danwinkler]

Can a $10 Bettor be as good as a $500+ Bettor?
If so, then why do some poke fun at others who make very small wagers?
If you're good, you're good, right?

Bet size has nothing to do with how good you are. Its about discipline and how you manage the bankroll. Few years ago when I traveled to India and the guy who carried my suitcase to the hotel room struck up a conversation and it somehow steered towards sports and betting. During the 5 minute conversation from the lobby to the room, he revealed that he made more money than his job's base salary (not including tips) betting what is equivalent to $5 to $10 per game. He also mentioned that he made more money from tips than his salary since he would receive tips in USD/GBP/Euors etc. He said he mostly bets on european soccer, tennis and cricket. I don't know his betting details but I am guessing he is a disciplined bettor if he was routinely making profit that is more than his base salary.

The difference between suckers/dgenerate gamblers and good bettors is that good bettors have the discipline to survive and they cash out profits periodically and continue to play with just the initial deposit or two as needed. Degenerates and bad bettors will blow each deposit faster than a crackhead blows his welfare check, and the will keep repeating that process forever.

[SportsSharingun]

I try to bet value, if there is value at -350 I will take it even at +400, value is value

Right but if you're suggesting something for recreational bettors, I think its going to be difficult for them to spot value on a -350 line. Large favorites, iirc, are typically the least profitable lines in baseball (for bettors).

[danwinkler]

example of my method bankroll $1000 1% is $10 so 1 unit in a $1k bankroll would be $10
yankees -200 bet 20 to win 10
dodgers +200 bet 5 to win 10
blue jays +100 bet 10 to win 10
Rockies -145 bet 14.50 to win 10
hope that makes more sense

the theory is that you have more money on things more likely to occur and you can stretch out your plays longer.
its hard NOT impossible to go broke betting 1% of bankroll on things that will be 50/50

I use bettingresource's money management with 3% max bet. Its pretty good if you are selective with the picks. I used to use their picks many years ago as well but stopped about 5 years ago since I travel to Honk Kong and Australia throughout the year because of my work. My time zone issues barred me from following all the releases regularly.

[danshan11]

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&su=1&ou=1&sdql=line%3C-300&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

i think this is a small sample size but it definitely says fading big faves over -300 is a good thing but i would cry
sample size
variance
but this is reality

[danshan11]

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&su=1&ou=1&sdql=line%3C-400&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

and this says it a better than flipping coins but not profitable at -400