The Preakness Play??? Looks Like Wet Day

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  • jjgold
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-20-05
    • 388179

    #1
    The Preakness Play??? Looks Like Wet Day
    Post time for the 143rd Preakness Stakes is 6:48 p.m. ET Saturday. (TV: NBCSN, 2:30 p.m.; NBC, 5 p.m.). USA TODAY’s Dan Wolken takes a look at the field for the 13/16-mile race:
    1. Quip (12-1)

    Owners: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club International, SF Racing
    Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset
    Jockey: Florent Geroux
    Record: 3-1-0 in five starts
    Notable: Bypassed the Kentucky Derby to point for the Preakness, which should suit his front-running style. Owned by the same principals as Justify, they felt he deserved his chance after a good second in the Arkansas Derby on April 14. Brisset, a longtime Bill Mott assistant who went out on his own last year, is making his Triple Crown debut at 34.
    2. Lone Sailor (15-1)

    Owner: G M B Racing
    Trainer: Tom Amoss
    Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
    Record: 1-3-1 in nine starts
    Notable: Sharp handicappers liked his chances of hitting the board in the Derby, but he finished eighth after a troubled trip that included losing a shoe in the mud at Churchill Downs. The connections are taking another shot in this small Preakness field and hoping to score a victory for his now-deceased owner Tom Benson, who is mostly known for owning the NFL’s New Orleans Saints and NBA’s New Orleans Pelicans.
    3. Sporting Chance (30-1)

    Owners: Robert Baker and William Mack
    Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
    Jockey: Luis Contreras
    Record: 2-1-1 in seven starts
    Notable: Although he’s winless since capturing the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes for 2-year-olds in September, he’s been in the mix with other top 3-year-olds, finishing third in both the Southwest and Blue Grass Stakes. His fourth-place finish in the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard didn’t deter Lukas from entering him here.
    4. Diamond King (30-1)

    Owner: Cash is King, D.J. Stable, LC Racing
    Trainer: John Servis
    Jockey: Javier Castellano
    Record: 4-0-1 in six starts
    Notable: This will be a huge step up in class after a win in the Federico Tesio stakes at Laurel Park last month. There are some strong human connections to past Preakness success, however, as owner Chuck Zacney’s Cash is King Stable campaigned 2005 winner Afleet Alex and trainer John Servis returns for the first time since sending Smarty Jones to an 111/2-length win in 2004.
    5. Good Magic (3-1)

    Owners: E Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables
    An exercise rider works Kentucky Derby entry Good Magic at Churchill Downs. (Photo: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports)


    Trainer: Chad Brown
    Jockey: Jose Ortiz
    Record: 2-3-1 in six starts
    Notable: Had every chance to win the Derby but just couldn’t keep pace in the stretch once Justify hit another gear. Still, it was a solid second for last year’s 2-year-old champion and he bounced out of the race in good enough shape physically for Brown, who won last year’s Preakness with Cloud Computing, to take another shot.
    6. Tenfold (20-1)

    Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
    Trainer: Steve Asmussen
    Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
    Record: 2-0-0 in three starts
    Notable: Much like Justify, he got a late start to his career, breaking his maiden in February but showing enough ability that Asmussen tried the Arkansas Derby in his third race. Though he finished fifth, thus not earning enough points for the Kentucky Derby, it says a lot that Asmussen thinks enough of him to try this race when there are plenty of easier graded stakes for 3-year-olds he would be favored in.
    7. Justify (1-2)

    Owners: China Horse Club International, Head of Plains Partners, Starlight Racing and WinStar Farm
    Trainer: Bob Baffert
    Mike Smith takes Justify to the winner's circle at the Kentucky Derby. (Photo: Mark Zerof, USA TODAY Sports)


    Jockey: Mike Smith
    Record: 4-0-0 in four starts
    Notable: Baffert will try to make it 5-for-5 in the Preakness with his Kentucky Derby winners, as Justify looms a heavy favorite following his 21/2-length win at Churchill Downs. A victory would also give Baffert 14 wins in Triple Crown races, tying him with D. Wayne Lukas for most all time. Remarkably, American Pharoah in 2015 is the last Derby winner to win any subsequent races.
    8. Bravazo (20-1)

    Owner: Calumet Farm
    Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
    Jockey: Luis Saez
    Record: 3-1-1 in nine starts
    Notable: Lukas has won this race six times, including in 2013 with longshot Oxbow, who finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby. He’s trying to follow the same template here with Bravazo, who was actually one of the few horses doing any running late behind Justify despite being forced wide on the final turn. He won his first two races this year, including the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds.
  • slayer14
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 08-12-13
    • 22021

    #2
    A lot of upsets likely
    Comment
    • cincinnatikid513
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 11-23-17
      • 45360

      #3
      justify is going to win and the payouts will be bad
      Comment
      • bostonbruins
        SBR MVP
        • 04-02-08
        • 3272

        #4
        Whats a rough payout for an exacta with Justify first and one of the 20/1 horses 2nd?
        Comment
        • gummo
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 09-04-06
          • 6297

          #5
          Only bet is to key justify over a couple longshots in exotics.
          Comment
          • cincinnatikid513
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 11-23-17
            • 45360

            #6
            Originally posted by bostonbruins
            Whats a rough payout for an exacta with Justify first and one of the 20/1 horses 2nd?
            never know the year american pharoah won the 2nd place horse was close to 30-1 paid 2 exacta paid 124.40
            Comment
            • slayer14
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 08-12-13
              • 22021

              #7
              On that ground anything could happen
              Comment
              • funnyb25
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 07-09-09
                • 39663

                #8
                Slop fest in the Triple Crown lately
                Comment
                • thetrinity
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 01-25-11
                  • 22430

                  #9
                  justify should win but i think show and place are pretty wide open
                  Comment
                  • LT Profits
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 10-27-06
                    • 90963

                    #10
                    Quip wire-to-wire, I got +2000 on Fixed Future at Heritage.
                    Comment
                    • LT Profits
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-27-06
                      • 90963

                      #11
                      Originally posted by LT Profits
                      Quip wire-to-wire, I got +2000 on Fixed Future at Heritage.
                      Still +2000 right now, I don't think his odds will be that high on track.
                      Comment
                      • Jowframs
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 08-10-09
                        • 5128

                        #12
                        Justify Long Gone

                        Trump Style
                        Comment
                        • jjgold
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 07-20-05
                          • 388179

                          #13
                          terrible race to bet actually
                          Comment
                          • sourtwist
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 11-10-12
                            • 9364

                            #14
                            Originally posted by jjgold
                            terrible race to bet actually
                            No money to win if justify takes it
                            Comment
                            • klemopixx
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-02-14
                              • 3807

                              #15
                              Only 8 horses? Garbage! The only way to make money is hoping that Justify ends up third. A $2 exacta box using any three horses besides the favorite is the lottery ticket here.

                              Otherwise it's pennies on the dollar if you use Justify for anything.
                              Comment
                              • klemopixx
                                SBR MVP
                                • 10-02-14
                                • 3807

                                #16
                                Going 1-5-8 on a $2 exacta.

                                Let's see if a $12 lottery ticket cashes.
                                Comment
                                • Jowframs
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 08-10-09
                                  • 5128

                                  #17
                                  Trfecta should pay decent
                                  Comment
                                  • LT Profits
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 10-27-06
                                    • 90963

                                    #18
                                    Actually a great race to bet if you leave Justify out of your exactas. It is only a bad race to bet if you don't want to bet against him.
                                    Comment
                                    • rkelly110
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 10-05-09
                                      • 39691

                                      #19
                                      Thanks JJ for the info. Can make a better informed decision.
                                      Comment
                                      • Sam Odom
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 10-30-05
                                        • 58063

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by jjgold

                                        terrible race to bet actually

                                        throw a few buck$ on several Exactas withOUT justify
                                        Comment
                                        • sourtwist
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 11-10-12
                                          • 9364

                                          #21
                                          Is there any likelihood of justify losing this race?
                                          Comment
                                          • Sam Odom
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-30-05
                                            • 58063

                                            #22
                                            ... yes
                                            Comment
                                            • LT Profits
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 10-27-06
                                              • 90963

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by sourtwist
                                              Is there any likelihood of justify losing this race?
                                              Of course there is a chance, remember these horses have never run two races this close together before (2 weeks apart).
                                              Comment
                                              • Jowframs
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 08-10-09
                                                • 5128

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by gummo
                                                Only bet is to key justify over a couple longshots in exotics.
                                                Absolutely
                                                Comment
                                                • USCPHILLYGUY
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 12-15-12
                                                  • 21746

                                                  #25
                                                  LT Sharp as a nail with this one............have had this circled since the Arkansas Derby
                                                  Comment
                                                  • reigle9
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 10-25-07
                                                    • 17879

                                                    #26
                                                    why would the fav in the derby, that won, in the slop, not win the preakness in the same conditions

                                                    you guys think youre sharper than you are...how many million times has the derby winner won the preakness? and in this rare case, both races being in the slop

                                                    just exacta box justify with whatever longshot whose name you like the best and stop pretending like you know wtf youre talking about
                                                    Comment
                                                    • gummo
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 09-04-06
                                                      • 6297

                                                      #27
                                                      Favorites dominating the first 3 races. Justify should win by 5 lengths.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • alecmatt5
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 08-29-17
                                                        • 337

                                                        #28
                                                        Everybody and their mother is going to have an exacta box with Good Magic and Justify. There's going to be plenty of money in the pot for whatever other exacta you like
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Kazoey
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 01-03-18
                                                          • 28

                                                          #29
                                                          Every non Justify ex box adds value to the Justify ex. They would have to run their best and he would have to run his worst by far to lose this. Chalk has been doing well in this slop. Advance has him at even money. If he is anywhere near that or even 4-5 it may be the play of the decade. People are paying -280 for the Cavs to win tonight to put things into perspective..

                                                          Went Justify over LS, Justify singled in P4 and a disaster slop ebx LS and Tenfold.

                                                          Undercard is dogshit due to scratches.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Jowframs
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 08-10-09
                                                            • 5128

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by alecmatt5
                                                            Everybody and their mother is going to have an exacta box with Good Magic and Justify. There's going to be plenty of money in the pot for whatever other exacta you like
                                                            Good Magic ridden Hard still couldn't pass Justify........Ready for long vaca
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Thunderground
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 09-09-15
                                                              • 256

                                                              #31
                                                              Play the superfecta:
                                                              7-5/7-5/1-3-8/1-3-8 with 7-5/1-3-8/7-5/1-3-8
                                                              7-5/7-5/1-4-6/1-4-6 with 7-5/1-4-6/7-5/1-4-6

                                                              $48 for a very real shot.

                                                              I would also bet all the longshots in the show spot, because if the slightest thing is off with Justify Mike Smith will ease the horse. He's done that quite a bit on huge favorites.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Heltah Skeltah
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 12-05-17
                                                                • 3499

                                                                #32
                                                                This race is is shit. Justify wins this easily but at his price you can't bet. Seems like all the other trainers pulled out and saving their horses to go against Justify in the last leg
                                                                Comment
                                                                • RangeFinder
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 10-27-16
                                                                  • 8041

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                                  Of course there is a chance, remember these horses have never run two races this close together before (2 weeks apart).
                                                                  Couple other things could hurt him too

                                                                  Bad break (You must break today or it's over)

                                                                  Justify known to not to be the quickest breaker although KY Derby was his best break of his career

                                                                  Known foot bruise although the Baffert camp says he's fine

                                                                  Justify may not take to the track even though he won in the slop in KY


                                                                  Proceed at your peril lol
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • goduke
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 02-17-10
                                                                    • 11580

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Good magic has a legit shot with less horses in the race. Justify got to race mostly in the lead at the derby with no traffic. Magic had to exert a ton of extra energy to get to the front late so it didn’t have that extra push. I think people are underestimating this horse
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • SBR Drew
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 01-08-18
                                                                      • 7351

                                                                      #35
                                                                      <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/68P5ZjIENHo" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
                                                                      Comment
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