Correlated Parlay question

[Korchnoi]

Giants/Eagles game. Say you like the Giants -6 and also the Over 45. Since it's more likely that the Giants will cover if it's a high scoring game, this would be a correlated parlay. What are the advantages/disadvantages to parlaying these two bets versus betting each seperately. Assume the odds you get on the parlay are fair vs each line (in this case, giants -6 was even money and over 45 was -110 and th parlay paid +282 or so).

[BigDaddy]

thats not correlated

[bigboydan]

No that is not a correlated parlay bud.

I myself don't care for betting parlays at all. However some people feel that there is a big advantage betting them. (to each is own I guess) The hard part is trying to find a book that takes them, and if people can find them they don't want to tell anyone.

heres a detailed thread that Ganchrow started on this topic:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/2110-correlated-parlays.html?highlight=Correlated+parlays

[Korchnoi]

Thanks for the link. The two bets seem at least somewhat correlated, no?

[BigDaddy]

Thanks for the link. The two bets seem at least somewhat correlated, no?

once again no

[RickySteve]

once again no

False.

[BigDaddy]

False.

-6
over 45

is correlated?

[Santo]

There's a level of correlation yes, perhaps not overly strong.

Solve by inspection. +40 and Under 45 are correlated right?

[RickySteve]

-6
over 45

is correlated?

Of course.

Does the correlation alone make it a profitable bet getting +260? No.

[louis]

correlation -6 and over 45

There is a very small correlation. The advantage that arises from the correlation is not large enough to overcome the vig.

In the case of +40 and under 45, if you can find a game with these numbers, the book is not going to allow the parlay.

[Arilou]

Louis nailed it. The parlay will be marginally superior to the bets on their own, but only VERY marginally. Think -101.

[Korchnoi]

I got Giants -6 for even and paid -110 for over 45. These were both roughly mid-mkt or better on pinnacle, so I don't have any vig to overcome. I got the parlay at +282, which is fair. Anyhow, as you know, game went Over but Giants didn't cover.

Parlays are only worse if your paying the vig on both lines. It's because you're essentially doubling down, so your spreading more money over the same negative edge. If both lines are fair, a parlay doesn't change your expectation if both events are indepenent. If they're even slightly dependent, a parlay could help.

This is the right way to look at it, right?

[Santo]

In the case of +40 and under 45, if you can find a game with these numbers, the book is not going to allow the parlay.

Most books won't, correct ;-)

[BigDaddy]

There is a very small correlation. The advantage that arises from the correlation is not large enough to overcome the vig.

In the case of +40 and under 45, if you can find a game with these numbers, the book is not going to allow the parlay.

some books do accept these plays and also allow 1st half parlays with lines -20 over 23

sat oct 28th

fla int +20
alabama U23


my point is im not intereseted in -6 ov 45 its not a longterm winner

this football season has been very good for me with parlays on 1st halfs, 2nd halfs ,1st qtrs and games thats all i'll say

[Korchnoi]

my point is im not intereseted in -6 ov 45 its not a longterm winner

[/QUOTE]

It looks like we established that the parlay is marginally better than betting each seperately.

[louis]

Parlay +20 and 23

If you are going to parlay +20 under 23, the sportsbooks that offer this are the same ones that may go ahead and cancel your bet even after the game.