Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[KVB]

Banks are certainly not done falling. There is no reason to buy any of them now.
Syria, Iraq, Iran heating up with attacks against US troops. US committed to Ukraine War
and confronting China in the Pacific. US Gov needs huge budget to pass and debt on way to high 30 trills.

Stephen Leeb speculates not without reason that JPM gold/silver short positions may be mathematically larger in derivatives exposure than their entire balance sheet. If gold shot up 1,000 it could trigger catastrophe. (link)

Remember when JP traders were spoofing and manipulating commodity trades, like gold, silver, platinum?

Trading execs were entering trades to manipulate the market then pulling the offer to trade the other way.

It won't happen though, I doubt Gold spikes so fast, even if they help it by covering shorts, that they can't find a way out of trouble.

After all, they are "too big to fail"

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good Luck, everyone.

Have a good week of trading. I'm going back and looking at old posts. Trying to grasp some of the knowledge being presented.

[Slurry Pumper]

Its a melt up rally situation going on here. There will be a turning point somewhere, but for now let it ride.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

and it's not just our government, it's worldwide... started with unified covid rules, and now continues with "climate change" "trans rights" "racism"... world economic forum/WHO/other globalists pulling the strings to ruin societies all over the world

not enough people jabbed themselves to death with fake vaccines, so it's on to the next scams

Mike, have you seen this book? Ed Dowd - "Cause Unknown".

https://www.amazon.com/Cause-Epidemic-Sudden-Childrens-Defense-ebook/dp/B0BB8JTNJZ?ref_=ast_author_mpb&asin=B0BB8JTNJZ&revisionId=b775918b&format=1&depth=1

Several young athletes around the globe were competing. Suddenly, they drop and die. I wonder why.

Dowd claims that the excess mortality stats were +13 standard deviations to the right.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

If a guy had $10,000 dry powder to invest into assets...what would your portfolio look like?

What would the assets and allocations look like?

I know this is an open-ended question. Thx for any replies.

[milwaukee mike]

If a guy had $10,000 dry powder to invest into assets...what would your portfolio look like?

What would the assets and allocations look like?

I know this is an open-ended question. Thx for any replies.

it would've been go back in time a week and buy vno-o for $10/share when i said to... even at $11+ it's good

if it was a million then spread it around, but for 10k i would just go all-in

[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nominated-posts/3723636-stock-market-discussion-started-03-06-2018-updated-daily-nominated-post.html

[guitarjosh]

Its a melt up rally situation going on here. There will be a turning point somewhere, but for now let it ride.

The market is getting pretty short term overbought, don't be shocked if we have a pullback.

[Slurry Pumper]

If a guy had $10,000 dry powder to invest into assets...what would your portfolio look like?

What would the assets and allocations look like?

I know this is an open-ended question. Thx for any replies.

I think I would hold on to that dry powder or maybe buy a short term 6 month cd and wait for things to fall apart before the end of the year. At that point I'll be looking for depressed property in all likelihood, but for 10K, maybe a stock to hold, something that has pricing power with their products so something people need to survive.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I think I would hold on to that dry powder or maybe buy a short term 6 month cd and wait for things to fall apart before the end of the year. At that point I'll be looking for depressed property in all likelihood, but for 10K, maybe a stock to hold, something that has pricing power with their products so something people need to survive.

Depressed property could be coming for sure.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Mike, have you seen this book? Ed Dowd - "Cause Unknown".

https://www.amazon.com/Cause-Epidemic-Sudden-Childrens-Defense-ebook/dp/B0BB8JTNJZ?ref_=ast_author_mpb&asin=B0BB8JTNJZ&revisionId=b775918b&format=1&depth=1

Several young athletes around the globe were competing. Suddenly, they drop and die. I wonder why.

Dowd claims that the excess mortality stats were +13 standard deviations to the right.

This guy (Dr John Campbell) makes some interesting videos. Go to 13:20, he says it:
"Higher the vaccination rates were in 2021...higher the excess mortality was in 2022."

[flyingillini]

This guy (Dr John Campbell) makes some interesting videos. Go to 13:20, he says it:
"Higher the vaccination rates were in 2021...higher the excess mortality was in 2022."

I have been watching Dr. Campbell for a long time, he is great.

[Madison]

If a guy had $10,000 dry powder to invest into assets...what would your portfolio look like?

What would the assets and allocations look like?

I know this is an open-ended question. Thx for any replies.

Well, what you left out was the most important thing (Lenght). Short term I'd probably buy the CD's per Slurry and wait 6 months. I have about 20% of my portfolio designed for the grandkids. Metals (Lithium), Quantum computing (Anyone wants to discuss further I'm all ears), DNA sequencing, Gold & Sliver, Crypto (I'm no expert here), Alternative Energy (I gave out FLNC way back) BOL

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks, Madison. Guess I had a time horizon of about 6 years in mind.

Like what you're saying:
*Metals, including Lithium
*Gold and Ag
*Crypto: even someone less than a Bitcoin maximalist can think in terms of a 2% Greg Foss-type allocation

I will think about the other items you mentioned. I can't claim any knowledge on those. Thanks.

[milwaukee mike]

Thanks, Madison. Guess I had a time horizon of about 6 years in mind.

Like what you're saying:
*Metals, including Lithium
*Gold and Ag
*Crypto: even someone less than a Bitcoin maximalist can think in terms of a 2% Greg Foss-type allocation

I will think about the other items you mentioned. I can't claim any knowledge on those. Thanks.

i'm not even sure this country will exist in 6 years, so you're probably right with the PHYSICAL gold and silver, also weapons/ammo are probably a good idea unless you live somewhere guard gated

[ChuckyTheGoat]

i'm not even sure this country will exist in 6 years, so you're probably right with the PHYSICAL gold and silver, also weapons/ammo are probably a good idea unless you live somewhere guard gated

Thx, Mike. Continuing to monitor Ag price, still going up.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Well, what you left out was the most important thing (Lenght). Short term I'd probably buy the CD's per Slurry and wait 6 months. I have about 20% of my portfolio designed for the grandkids. Metals (Lithium), Quantum computing (Anyone wants to discuss further I'm all ears), DNA sequencing, Gold & Sliver, Crypto (I'm no expert here), Alternative Energy (I gave out FLNC way back) BOL

Thx for the replies, boys. Madison, even if I understood Quantum computing and DNA sequencing...I'm not sure I would know how to INVEST in those areas.

I like the metals. I have to admit that I am sometimes a sucker on metal investing. IE, I listen to a guy talking the need for Lithium/Copper...and I'm sold.

I find these replies to be valuable. Specifically, I've thought of Vanguard funds as being a primary area of investment. Diversification and very low Expense ratio. Guess I'd have a big problem if the currency craters. Then, it's not diversified at all, it's correlated.

Assuming that doesn't happen, some stocks I like:
*GBTC
*DJP: a commodity index

[homie1975]

The market is getting pretty short term overbought, don't be shocked if we have a pullback.

I'd be curious to see where the S&P Oscillator is at the moment but unlike Jimmy Cramer, I am not a subscriber.

[Slurry Pumper]

I like everything that comes out of the ground. Did you know that most copper mines are way past their prime in terms of whats left to dig up, while lithium is barely being exploited. Sure in the coming months if we get this global recession the copper will fall but that is my que to buy those miners.

[milwaukee mike]

I like everything that comes out of the ground. Did you know that most copper mines are way past their prime in terms of whats left to dig up, while lithium is barely being exploited. Sure in the coming months if we get this global recession the copper will fall but that is my que to buy those miners.

i've been burned by so many miners though, gold goes from $250 to $2000 and my mining stocks deteriorate anyway... wish i would've never heard of cde/mux/hymc

hymc has $1/share in cash and the stock is at 0.43, because everyone knows these clowns eventually burn through all the cash and their costs are way higher than they claim... always calling it "cash costs" per ounce

[d2bets]

i've been burned by so many miners though, gold goes from $250 to $2000 and my mining stocks deteriorate anyway... wish i would've never heard of cde/mux/hymc

hymc has $1/share in cash and the stock is at 0.43, because everyone knows these clowns eventually burn through all the cash and their costs are way higher than they claim... always calling it "cash costs" per ounce

CDE has been real good lately. In at $3.70.

[milwaukee mike]

CDE has been real good lately. In at $3.70.

i think i'm in at the same price (or higher), except before a 1/10 split quite a few years back lol, so $37

sad when you're holding a stock that needs a 10-bagger to get you back to even

the only consistent thing with CDE is that they are awful and crooked... in the past 5 years they've added 100 million shares (50%) just by giving themselves free stock... how do you reward yourself with $500 million after the stock loses 90%? shameless

[Slurry Pumper]

i've been burned by so many miners though, gold goes from $250 to $2000 and my mining stocks deteriorate anyway... wish i would've never heard of cde/mux/hymc

hymc has $1/share in cash and the stock is at 0.43, because everyone knows these clowns eventually burn through all the cash and their costs are way higher than they claim... always calling it "cash costs" per ounce

Yeah, I hear ya with the mining woes. Most of the startup mines are literally money pits that just suck investors in, and then when they get established, management is key. I typically like to stay with the bigger names in mining like NEM, AU, and others for the golds, BHP, FCX for my coppers. I don't know about the ones you mentioned, but in the mining bidness finding the metals is the easy part, and extracting it is the tricky part. I would caution against anyone who is thinking of investing in these things to not get caught up in any hole in the ground operation that touts how much they think is available to extract, and focus on where it is on the earth, the regulations in that area, what's the market gonna be like in the next 10 years for that metal, and the management of that company.

[Snowball]

" each year worldwide, we excavate up to 160 tons of platinum, compared to 1500 tons of gold."

"As overall mine production of palladium reached 210,000 kilograms in 2022"

" The mine production of palladium in Russia reached an amount of some 88 metric tons in 2022."

210,000 kilograms = 231 metric tons - 88 metric tons (Russia problems) = 143 metric tons of palladium

2022 mining and current prices:

Gold: $2020, 1500 tons
Palladium: $1,500, 231 tons with Russia, 143 without Russia
Platinum: $1020, 160 tons

fwiw. all eyes are on Gold... but is Gold truly the best buy ???

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Snowball, props to you, my man. I knew you were sharp. That's a great post.

I watch a lot of metal videos. But I can't claim expertise.

Wish I had the answers. I've mentioned Silver (Ag) on here several times. I can't imagine how it won't keep rising:
1) Trading well above spot.
2) Great conductivity.
3) Small amounts in so many electronic devices.
4) Currently, the Au/Ag ratio is well above historical average.
5) Can SOMETIMES find the Silver in the coin rolls.
...On point 5, I've had a few AMAZING pulls on the coin rolls. No one will believe me, but I pulled 34 silver out a 40-coin quarter roll last year. Getting harder and harder to find, less Silver in circulation.

I've also taken to pulling the Copper pennies. Get a cheap scale to detect which 1982 pennies are Copper. Melt value of the copper penny (1909-1982) is 2.8x face.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Palladium is the metal that's often used in catalytic converters. So, a smart thief will often go straight for the converter. Auto theft will surely continue to rise.

Wish I knew more about Platinum. You see discussion on whether Palladium is more valuable than Platinum. Or vice versa?

[Snowball]

Palladium is the metal that's often used in catalytic converters. So, a smart thief will often go straight for the converter. Auto theft will surely continue to rise.

Wish I knew more about Platinum. You see discussion on whether Palladium is more valuable than Platinum. Or vice versa?

For a very long time, platinum was more valuable. It could still happen again, but the dearth of palladium took hold,
it was undermined and the dependence on Russia makes it have more potential right now. But, that's why it's $500 more
than platinum. Platinum should be worth more than gold, but the banks hoard gold, and more of the public around the world are generationally disposed towards gold. The reason why PGM's are below gold right now is also due to the expected or ongoing "economic slowdown" and inflation and debt rates for loans to buy new vehicles.

[Slurry Pumper]

" each year worldwide, we excavate up to 160 tons of platinum, compared to 1500 tons of gold."

"As overall mine production of palladium reached 210,000 kilograms in 2022"

" The mine production of palladium in Russia reached an amount of some 88 metric tons in 2022."

210,000 kilograms = 231 metric tons - 88 metric tons (Russia problems) = 143 metric tons of palladium

2022 mining and current prices:

Gold: $2020, 1500 tons
Palladium: $1,500, 231 tons with Russia, 143 without Russia
Platinum: $1020, 160 tons

fwiw. all eyes are on Gold... but is Gold truly the best buy ???

I agree with all of those unobtainiums you mention, but I also think about who I can sell to get rid of it when the time comes.

[milwaukee mike]

I agree with all of those unobtainiums you mention, but I also think about who I can sell to get rid of it when the time comes.

good action in the metals today

with inflation and dollar worries, i'm somewhat surprised we aren't already at gold 5000, silver 100

they're getting close to just mining dust at this point

[Madison]

Thanks, Madison. Guess I had a time horizon of about 6 years in mind.

Like what you're saying:
*Metals, including Lithium
*Gold and Ag
*Crypto: even someone less than a Bitcoin maximalist can think in terms of a 2% Greg Foss-type allocation

I will think about the other items you mentioned. I can't claim any knowledge on those. Thanks.

Buy a little ALB & SQM (Lithium miners) at these levels.

[Madison]

Buy a little ALB & SQM (Lithium miners) at these levels.

Don't overthink it.

[Madison]

Quantum ... IONQ going to the moon? Getting a little overbought for me, but loving it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Buy a little ALB & SQM (Lithium miners) at these levels.

Thank you, Madison. I'll look at those. What do you think of LITOF?

I do have good exposure to metals. Would like to sharpen my game, tho.

[Slurry Pumper]

Pretty much took the day off yesterday until the very end when another money making opportunity came across my desk late in the day, and since the trend line trade has been working pretty well for me lately, I think I'll share this one with you just because I rarely give out actual stock plays even though I do play individual stocks almost as much as I play the index funds. It's my Slurry Pumping Falling Knife trade.
Look at this set up, we have a rising trend line that has been tagged 3 times in the last year and held. With once before being the exact scenario we have set up for today (circled). Oil fell of the map a little bit yesterday and ET fell off the table with it spiked through the 200 DMA, then bounced right off the trend line to close just above the 200DMA.



I bought my first half of the position yesterday of ET at the $12 Strike for the 4/21 termination. After we see the shake out this morning, I'll be picking up the second half. If we get lucky there may be another dip to start the morning to perhaps the 200DMA again for another intra-day test or even another trend line test but maybe not. I figure I'm wrong if it closes the week below the trend, and definitely below the $11.50 support spot.
Looking for this to pop in the coming week or so to $13 as a minimum.

Well I'm kind of bummed about the performance of ET this morning, but it is still a winning trade. So the yellow areas mark where I got the Calls at $0.45 and $0.32. It went down a little bit but hung out just above my cut loose level. Then ran back up to almost get to my target Monday. Took a little bit off the table since it did hit the 78.6% level on the Fibonazi spring back -o-meter. I still have about 66% and hopefully after the pullback yesterday, oil will continue to rise and if so ET will be going with it. If it looks like it is going to close below the low of Yesterday ($12.60ish), I'm jumping off and taking the money to look for another opportunity. I guess I shouldn't be down since it is a winner and gains are gains.

[milwaukee mike]

like poker or anything else slurry, all you can do is make the best decision you can and ignore the "bad beats"... i have 100k worth of bbby bonds that are now worth 7k... was a good decision at the time, when they had $1.2 billion in cash and were profitable

but by mentioning that, even now, it's like i'm throwing my garbage in everyone's yard, and it isn't helpful... even if there's (1) winner and (10) losers, it's better to focus on the winner!