Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

I got the time this weekend so let’s play umpire and callsome balls and strikes to see if there is an outlook to bet on in the markets.
Overall, the markets are at a point where collectively they canbreak a trend and run quite a bit when doing it. Although I’m mostly in the doom and gloomcamp, I will be watching so I can change at prescribed areas.


Starting with my favorite indicator the SPY. This is a quarterly chart that goes back asfar as ThinkorSwim would allow.
1^st thing I see is a bear flag formation and amarket that is just taking some time off the clock before a continuing movedown.
2^nd thing is the target area when the market doescomplete this second move which is around $250. I get this spot from a level of support tested twice before, and it isalso roughly 50% away from the first or current low of about $350.
3^rd item is where I think I may be wrong, andthat would be a quarterly close above around $425.
That’s my long-range story for SPY but as the time frame getsmaller and smaller, I may have thoughts that go against the overall thesis ofa downtrend.


For the Monthly time period, we have (1^st) levelof support $360ish, an upper level (2^nd) at around $410, and lastmonths (DEC) low of $375.


On the 2-year chart with weekly candle closes, the shorter-termpicture looks like there is an upper trend line (1^st) for the top ofthe wedge, and a base level (2^nd) of support in the $360 location. Currently on the weekly chart price is gettingrejected right at the upper boundary of the wedge. It really hasn’t been rejected yet, but sofar this trend line has held 3 other times so it’s a wait and see, if the priceis to bust through and stay above the (1^st) trend line on weekly closes,the next spot is $410.
I’m willing to take some longer term PUTS on the SPY that expireMay 19. They’re going for about 16 bucksnow and if next week’s close gets above $400 I would add to that for another weeks’time at 50-50 investment ratio under $410. After that next week’s price, will either take off if not sucked backunder the trend line. The upside is thelower portion of the range at $45 down the chart. We’ll see how this trade goes on Monday when Isee the best time to spring it.


For the immediate future starting off the week the 3-monthchart with daily candles has a few items that interest me. (1^st) is that trend line thatdefines the top of the wedge formation, (2^nd) is the bottom of thewedge which held pretty nicely for a few weeks before sending price back to the(4^th) trend line. Price was just up in this neighborhood for theTuesday open and it was rejected somewhat by the close followed by another tryon Wednesday. This time a pretty bigbeat down shot below the 200 DMA (3^rd) and closing right on the 50DMA. Thursday followed through with agap down and what I would call a semi-doji which can be a signal of a change indirection. Friday was a gap and gosituation where the bulls battled back to close just below the 200 DMA.
So, Monday’s futures will determine my thoughts on immediatedirection starting out the week. If thefutures markets gap over the 200 DMA and 400 is achieved before the openingbell, I may not buy short term calls that expire sometime mid-week. If it starts flat, I’ll buy calls off the bell. Down open and on the way down, $393.50 to$392 is a good zone of support and where I would buy calls. Below that and I’m out with unloading anycalls I but I will have picked up those longer term Puts. The sell zone is going to be $400 ish withsome profit taking along the way before hand to get the seed money back. It could run higher if things get going.
IWM with the same quarterly time frame shows a littledifferent story.


1^st item is a price of $172.50ish which price ranup to back in the mid 2018s.
2^nd notable occurrence is $172.50 level rejectedany further gains in price twice before the IWM was able to bust through in animpressively explosive manner. Thencoming back to revisit the former breakout area in mid-2022 when it spikedthrough the support level a little bit, but now the price has rose back above supportlevels and are looking positive.
3^rd thing is the top of the zone I would belooking for if this upward march were to continue.
Overall, this quarterly chart has a bullish look to it, andif the markets are to take off, the IWM index will be a leading indicator ofthat action.


The monthly time period shows the $172.50 level is provingto be pretty good support as the market is eating time off the clock in achannel, but still making a bear flag situation. Above the $186 level and I’ll start feelingdifferent.


The weekly closing chart shows another level of supportunder the $172.50 spot at (2^nd) $164. The trend line (1^st) for the IWMis similar the SPY, but when you look at recent closes (3^rd), youcan see 2 weeks ago price got to and closed above the trend line at $187ish, then just last week, price fell away to close abouta buck above (1^st) trend line price of $194ish. This may set up a short term bull / bearbattle next week and will be another sign and or signal on which way the next decisivemove will be. Either the trend linegives support and price bounces or consolidates around the $187 (4^th)spot, which would set up a trade on the bullish flag formation to break throughthe $187 spot; or not get support from the trend line and continue to fall downthe large break up candle so the next spot of interest would be $178ish. That’s far enough to consider a short or PUTposition, you know your wrong at a weekly close above $187, which allow around2 bucks to go against you, but $180 is the next level of support I see, so 7bucks of possibilities.


Friday’s close was above the (1^st)trend line and the candle stick is climbing the breakdown candle fromWednesday. There may be something left,but this trade was a Thursday closer trade so jumping on board now is too muchrisk if there is a Monday gap open. I’llwait to see if things look bullish on Monday to buy these short term calls.
The QQQ quarterly looks pretty ugly and it remains my SlurryPumping dump of the year selection that will more than likely lead all themarkets down.


1^st spot of interest is the low area from thequarter before this. BTW keep in mindthat for all of these quarterly charts the last candle is not complete as itstill has most of the quarter to go. Isprice going to take a pause and hold the $260 level. From the indecisive candle from the last quarter,it could be signaling a trend change from it being “about time for this”. From top to bottom it takes 5 candles to getthere which gives me the yeah, it’s time for a change. It doesn’t mean it bounces up, but maybedoesn’t keep going down.
2^nd price level of $321 is right around where Iwould start thinking that my overall thesis of dropping like a stone is not theright choice.
3^rd spot ($300 ish) is where I think the latestrun could go before turning back downward.
4^th is the range of where I see the bottom whichis roughly 50% from where the price is at now. Yeah, I’m saying the QQQs could be as low as $150 after a few more quarters.


After the QQQ Monthly chart ran down to (1^st) $255ish,it has set up a range to (2^nd) $300ish and has been trapped within thisrange now for a while making an overall bear flag pattern. You can see that $190 – 150 level of supportcome more into focus for a nice location for support.


The QQQ Weekly chart is also showing that familiar wedgepattern with the trend line (1^st) having been tested a few times before, and the lower level which iscloser in range (2^nd) to the current price so something is going tohappen pretty soon on this chart that has been playing out for the last 12months. This should result in a larger move really soon either up or down. Currently (3^rd) price closed onFriday at $282.68, and the trend line (1^st) is hanging out at around$284.50ish. That’s close enough to setup a bull bear battle right at the spot of resistance next week so keep thosenumbers in mind.


The daily chart confirms the statements for theweekly charts, and no doubt the QQQ will be a leader on Monday barring someblack swan action going down in the next 12 hours.

[milwaukee mike]

good stuff slurry

you put the time into those charts/moves that i put into individual stocks' balance sheets/income statements

as i've said before, more than 1 way to skin a cat... for people digging into individual stocks, you really have to go deep value on smaller companies like i've said with vra, or preferreds

in 3 months i've made back pretty much all of my losses from last year, just by going big on stuff that was way too cheap... weird times always present good opportunities

[homie1975]

Slurry and Mike-O

great stuff. good health !!

[milwaukee mike]

Slurry and Mike-O

great stuff. good health !!

right back atcha homie

we've always had some good, civil discussions/disagreements in this thread

still a good time to have some cash, on the fixed income side, you can get 3% in savings, 4%+ in a 1-yr cd, 6.89% in a i-bond, or 7-8% in some pretty safe preferreds

[Slurry Pumper]

There's the run up to the upper numbers I thought would happen today. It doesn't have to be over, but I'm gonna start picking up those Puts I mentioned yesterday.

[d2bets]

Bulls in control running wild now. I guess they sense the end of tightening coming.

[guitarjosh]

Bulls in control running wild now. I guess they sense the end of tightening coming.

Nah, sentiment got beaten down. It's a bounce. I read today this is the best January for the Nasdaq since 2001...

[d2bets]

Nah, sentiment got beaten down. It's a bounce. I read today this is the best January for the Nasdaq since 2001...

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Pretty exuberant right now. Hey, I'm not complaining. The run in NVDA lately is crazy.

[Snowball]

I like nanocap miners.

[Slurry Pumper]

So I'll be selling the rest of the calls today and picking up some more of those Puts that expire mid May. I'm a buyer of short term calls at the numbers so $399, $398, and $397 on any pullbacks for an intraday or couple of day trade if things look good enough. I'll be bailing with tight hourly stops a quarter buck below.

[Slurry Pumper]

Little bit of a pullback situation this morning, but I think the rescue crew comes in and runs the tape back up. I'll continue to accumulate the Puts that expire in mid May.

[milwaukee mike]

Little bit of a pullback situation this morning, but I think the rescue crew comes in and runs the tape back up. I'll continue to accumulate the Puts that expire in mid May.

i like using volatility to SELL options, covered calls and out-of-the-money puts mostly

on individual stocks that makes more sense... like GME, i sold some $2.50 puts for .25 a couple days ago... they have $4/share in cash and no debt, what kind of weirdo would pay that kind of money for $2.50 puts?

[Shafted69]

Best bounces occur in bear markets. See u at S&P 3600 soon.

[Slurry Pumper]

i like using volatility to SELL options, covered calls and out-of-the-money puts mostly

on individual stocks that makes more sense... like GME, i sold some $2.50 puts for .25 a couple days ago... they have $4/share in cash and no debt, what kind of weirdo would pay that kind of money for $2.50 puts?

I like the options for the indexes just for the liquidity and share control. I do from time to time get calls and puts for individual stocks, but not typically.

[homie1975]

Best bounces occur in bear markets. See u at S&P 3600 soon.

first a retest of 4200 from last August

[Madison]

FWIW ... From Luke Lango , Investor Place

• The CBOE Put/Call ratio for equities has dropped from 1.2 to 0.5 over the past few weeks. That is a record drop, which represents capitulation from the bears. Over the past 15 years, whenever the put/call ratio has dropped from above 1.0 to below 0.5, stocks have proceeded to boom.

BOL!!

[milwaukee mike]

FWIW ... From Luke Lango , Investor Place

• The CBOE Put/Call ratio for equities has dropped from 1.2 to 0.5 over the past few weeks. That is a record drop, which represents capitulation from the bears. Over the past 15 years, whenever the put/call ratio has dropped from above 1.0 to below 0.5, stocks have proceeded to boom.

BOL!!

interesting, i've always been fascinated by supply/demand, when there are less people left to sell (or buy) then prices temporarily move accordingly! in the long run it's all about true value, but in the meantime you can have my stock VRA in the past year worth 12 and then 2 and then 5 when nothing has fundamentally changed... earnings/sales, pretty much as expected but stock price all over the place

[homie1975]

Mike-O what is the next VRA ?

have you spotted another one in capitulation/consolidation that is ready to turn ?

[Slurry Pumper]

Things look bullish in just about every market here going into the last few days of the week. I kind of expect the SPY to run up to the 408-410 area as I tossed out there last weekend. I'm running with the calls up to this area, then buying the puts for a run down sometime in the near future.

[milwaukee mike]

Mike-O what is the next VRA ?

have you spotted another one in capitulation/consolidation that is ready to turn ?

unfortunately most of the gambling/value stuff i look at have bounced quite a bit... like wynn from 50 to 100, otly from 1 to 2

i would still keep buying preferred stocks, vno-o and bhr-b pay 7-8% and if you factor in that eventually you'll get $25/share, it's more like 12%

[d2bets]

Nice rip today and multi-month high.

I, for one, will not be surprised if the S&P 500 hits new highs before year-end. I know many disagree.

[Slurry Pumper]

A little run up yesterday followed by another run today would probably get us to the 408-410 spot on the SPY just before the weekend. Gonna at least exit and continue to gain small amounts of Puts for May.

These markets are at a point where if they continue to break out, things can run lead by the QQQs so my Puts may be unloaded and a total swing to the short term calls for another week or 2 depending on the FED actions is on the table.

[homie1975]

TSLA up 63% from $108 low of Jan 3.

now trading at $178 range

[d2bets]

TSLA up 63% from $108 low of Jan 3.

now trading at $178 range

Sell it.

NVDA up over 80% from Oct low. Buy it.

TSLA market cap ~ 12% higher than NVDA. NVDA > TSLA.

The first 5 trillion dollar company will not be AAPL. It will be NVDA, within 5 years.

NVDA dominates AI, nobody is even close.

Musk is a clown. Jensen Huang is an actual genius.

[homie1975]

2er I own decent-sized positions in both TSLA and NVDA

holding long

[d2bets]

2er I own decent-sized positions in both TSLA and NVDA

holding long

Well, you'll make more in NVDA than you'll lose in TSLA, so that's not too bad.

NVDA is my 5 year retirement plan. That and sportsbetting.

[homie1975]

Well, you'll make more in NVDA than you'll lose in TSLA, so that's not too bad.

NVDA is my 5 year retirement plan. That and sportsbetting.

2er if it's me i am not putting all of my eggs into one stock basket.

[d2bets]

2er if it's me i am not putting all of my eggs into one stock basket.

I hear that. Buy I bought in 2009 and if I sold any now it'd be quite the tax hit. It's a such a big % because it's done too well. I'll after I retire to take some gains. Always looking for more stock picks to add, so I'm all ears. But not TSLA. Uh uh. Nope.

[Madison]

2er I own decent-sized positions in both TSLA and NVDA

holding long

Without getting to personal I'd be interested as to whether or not you DCA'd your original position(s) and what your CB is now? I've been all over the place with NVDA. Owned a ton (10K ish) for me back a year or more ago. Been timing/lightening for a year and now down to 4 or 7 shares.

Just trying to understand how the other half plays. LOL

[Madison]

I hear that. Buy I bought in 2009 and if I sold any now it'd be quite the tax hit. It's a such a big % because it's done too well. I'll after I retire to take some gains. Always looking for more stock picks to add, so I'm all ears. But not TSLA. Uh uh. Nope.

Check out ASML and let us know what you think. Similar arena as NVDA. They monopolize their market.

[navyblue81]

Looking to get back into the market after pulling out last summer, so if anyone has any good ideas, let me know and I’ll study up on it. I pulled out of crypto during its crash and my other stocks as recession fears escalated.

Crypto seems to be bouncing back some. I was in Cardano at 1.50 but lost a shit load and pulled out at .50 cents after I lost several grand. I couldn’t take any more punishment. I wish I woulda got in MARa a couple weeks ago but think I missed the bus on it.

[trobin31]

Looking at an acetic acid manufacturer Celanese group…I didn’t realize how much stuff it goes into..ticker is CE..if you are a value/dividend bug this is the one for you

[Slurry Pumper]

The only thing I'm looking for in the next month to 2 months is a failure to break out and a visit to the most recent lows from last year in the markets. That's my story, but if per chance the SPY finds itself at the $410 level and closing daily candles above, I may reconsider.

If you've been hanging on to cash and looking to buy some of those beaten down tech names, I would caution you to keep an eye on the movement. The FED trouts on out this week, and I think we have a sell the event coming.

Today, will probably be a bit of a pullback followed by a pre-Fed rescue. End of the day closing prediction for me in the SPY is $404 unless the Bears can get it to close hourly below the magical $400 spot, then the bears will have their eyes set on $398.50 and some lower stuff. I think we get a rescue after the opening bell this morning if none other than an intra-day rally.

[Madison]

Looking to get back into the market after pulling out last summer, so if anyone has any good ideas, let me know and I’ll study up on it. I pulled out of crypto during its crash and my other stocks as recession fears escalated.

Crypto seems to be bouncing back some. I was in Cardano at 1.50 but lost a shit load and pulled out at .50 cents after I lost several grand. I couldn’t take any more punishment. I wish I woulda got in MARa a couple weeks ago but think I missed the bus on it.

Take a look at FLNC. I've killed it last year. Recent pullback. LMK.

[Goat Milk]

These big stocks aren't worth it for guys like me cause of limited capital, you have to wait 5 years to make 100% for already established brands. If I invest 25 grand, I have to wait 5 years to make 25 grand, then pay taxes? What's the gonna do for my life? Anyone have any real winners to give out?