Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Yulia74]

Credit Suisse issues dire global economic outlook: ‘Worst is yet to come’

[guitarjosh]

The market is very oversold by some metrics I use, in some cases more so than in June right before we rallied 15%-20%. I'm not saying we see another rally like that, but we should see a strong move soon.

I do think inflation is going to ease very soon, if it hasn't already, but it won't be seen for a month or two months at least. It's why it's so tricky for the Fed who doesn't want to prematurely guess wrong again on inflation, but with rapid decreases in demand and perhaps prices meaning that it will almost certainly overshoot the target into a recession. Covid threw everything so out of whack and the Fed was too slow to see it that it's now just about FUBAR.

I think inflation can come down, the problem is that the dollar is very overbought and needs to pullback + OPEC oil cuts + no more releases from the SPR + buying oil to replenish the SPR = inflation will probably be around longer than hoped. 6 months from now I wouldn't be surprised if inflation is still over 6%.

[d2bets]

The market is very oversold by some metrics I use, in some cases more so than in June right before we rallied 15%-20%. I'm not saying we see another rally like that, but we should see a strong move soon.




I think inflation can come down, the problem is that the dollar is very overbought and needs to pullback + OPEC oil cuts + no more releases from the SPR + buying oil to replenish the SPR = inflation will probably be around longer than hoped. 6 months from now I wouldn't be surprised if inflation is still over 6%.

But 6% is YoY. Sure, it will be that. You really have to look at the month over month movement as part of it.

But yeah, the problem is that because the Fed was so slow, it's just not well-synced up with growth. Meaning that the Fed will overshoot into what could be a pretty serious recession. Although I think it might be somewhat deep but short-lived.

I would bet that it will be even more "oversold" after tomorrow. Needs a good 3-4% flushout day, I think, to get a real rally. Today wasn't it.

[Yulia74]

"deep" euro zone recession is coming.

[milwaukee mike]

But 6% is YoY. Sure, it will be that. You really have to look at the month over month movement as part of it.

But yeah, the problem is that because the Fed was so slow, it's just not well-synced up with growth. Meaning that the Fed will overshoot into what could be a pretty serious recession. Although I think it might be somewhat deep but short-lived.

I would bet that it will be even more "oversold" after tomorrow. Needs a good 3-4% flushout day, I think, to get a real rally. Today wasn't it.

usually what i would look for is one of those down 4% days at the open (after 2 or 3 down days before it) that reverses course and finishes higher

so if there's a down day tomorrow, then monday becomes a washout open (with forced margin selling) that turns positive, that would be a good sign to me

but as most know here, i would be way more bullish into bonds/preferred stocks... so many $25 preferreds trading at 15... why mess around with common stocks when you can get a pretty safe 10% on the preferred side?

[milwaukee mike]

the cure for higher prices is always higher prices!

there is no inflation in tvs, washing machines, and stuff that retailers could get (and got too much of)

pretty soon there is probably gonna be major DEFLATION in housing prices... does that lead to rent reductions? who knows, but something like 60% of the cpi is rents

[Yulia74]

strong dollar is putin's fault, not jay powell's

[d2bets]

strong dollar is putin's fault, not jay powell's

That has definitely been a major factor in everything. As has Covid and China's policy. Supply chain is still a bitch. Everything is just outta wack. And now the pendulum will probably overswing the other way. See what happens when you move the pendulum back and forth. Takes a couple of wild back and forth for it to settle down.

[Yulia74]

global recession is coming

[alling]

Sell rips, cover when VIX hits new all time high. EOM

[Yulia74]

no bottom in assets until us credit spreads spike up

[Slurry Pumper]

Well, the markets have been unable to bounce and keep the gains all week. This looks like a bear flag to me, and if they can't go up they must go down, 371 on the SPY is important level on the monthly basis.

[milwaukee mike]

usually what i would look for is one of those down 4% days at the open (after 2 or 3 down days before it) that reverses course and finishes higher

so if there's a down day tomorrow, then monday becomes a washout open (with forced margin selling) that turns positive, that would be a good sign to me

but as most know here, i would be way more bullish into bonds/preferred stocks... so many $25 preferreds trading at 15... why mess around with common stocks when you can get a pretty safe 10% on the preferred side?

well we got part 1

part 2 would be a down open on monday... i am hoping for that, was forced out of some positions with options (dkng at 15/nflx at 235) and would like to get back in cheaper

[d2bets]

well we got part 1

part 2 would be a down open on monday... i am hoping for that, was forced out of some positions with options (dkng at 15/nflx at 235) and would like to get back in cheaper

Yeah, I think a rally may be in order next week. I think some of the late selling today was rebalancing and window dressing with the awful quarter. It's possible that the low is in with today's close, but we'll see.

[milwaukee mike]

Yeah, I think a rally may be in order next week. I think some of the late selling today was rebalancing and window dressing with the awful quarter. It's possible that the low is in with today's close, but we'll see.

i like the way you think (sometimes lol)... i think monday will be one of those days where if the s&p opens down 20 it goes higher, and if it opens up 20 it goes lower

we have been in sell the rallies and buy the dips mode lately... i would've bet my left nut that even after the red open turned green, we were gonna close red today... as you said the positioning where money managers want to give out quarterly statements with more cash and less intel, even if it means selling stuff at a loss

[d2bets]

i like the way you think (sometimes lol)... i think monday will be one of those days where if the s&p opens down 20 it goes higher, and if it opens up 20 it goes lower

we have been in sell the rallies and buy the dips mode lately... i would've bet my left nut that even after the red open turned green, we were gonna close red today... as you said the positioning where money managers want to give out quarterly statements with more cash and less intel, even if it means selling stuff at a loss

Exactly. I thought that was gonna happen. Options expiration stuff too. People saying it was oversold 5% ago must think it's really oversold now. I do think the 4th quarter will be UP. I think S&P will be able to close right around and over 4k by 12/31. Still would be 18-20% down year. New highs in 2024. Shit, I think I just turned bullish right at a 2 year low.

If it does move a bit lower, I will probably look to utilize some cash.

[guitarjosh]

Exactly. I thought that was gonna happen. Options expiration stuff too. People saying it was oversold 5% ago must think it's really oversold now. I do think the 4th quarter will be UP. I think S&P will be able to close right around and over 4k by 12/31. Still would be 18-20% down year. New highs in 2024. Shit, I think I just turned bullish right at a 2 year low.

If it does move a bit lower, I will probably look to utilize some cash.

It is extra really oversold now.

Looking at P&F charts, which have only buy or sell ratings, there is no neutral, the NYSE has only been more oversold during 4 periods in the past 35 years: the aftermath of Black Monday 1987, the Asian/Russian Financial Crisis in 1998, the 2nd half of 2008 into early 2009, and the Covid lockdown.

I am quite surprised how badly the market performed this week, though.

[alling]

Another great week to be short. This isn't rocket science. Sell the rips.

Rinse and repeat

[Slurry Pumper]

A pretty good late day for me today as you all just knew the tape was going to die going into the close, and it did not disappoint. Starting just after 11 this morning you can see the buyers drying up and the take the profits and run crowd came in to start the selling. I jumped on to those Puts that expire at the close and held right up until the last 10 seconds before unloading those babies. As I'm reading in this thread the sentiment is that Monday we open down and I will say the set up is there for a Short squeeze by closing below the 200 WMA in the $DJT, SPY, QQQ, SMH, XLF and the IWM which has been there for a while. The best thing would be a turd flusher to open up the morning with that gap fill coming in at around $350 for all of you SPY watchers. That should get the come lately people to flood in and take a short position. I've been watching this spot for the last few days and that is where I see some intraday reversal action coming to play with a chance for a more sustained rally.
So that is the play as I see it now, wait for the flush, and at around 350 on the SPY, you can hit the CALLS for a little intraday play at the very least, but I will still but a call maybe 2 weeks out just in case we get a little traction. Similar things are going to happen in QQQ, SMH, IWM, etc...

[ex50warrior]

Crap, I missed a couple of great trading days. We live in Fort Myers for most of the year and have been tied up trying to keep the wife from going completely off the rails. At least we're both Ok but our home is not, it took a pounding.

[Bostongambler]

Glad you’re safe man.

[homie1975]

i nibbled last Thurs and Friday and i did it again today the last 40 mins of the session.

nibble nibble nibble don't double dribble.

build out positions incrementally. hold LONG.

[Yulia74]

stress in global markets is mounting

[homie1975]

gimme more more more more

greed is good

long term holding

[TheMoneyShot]

Apple claims the release of the iphone 14 was one of the worst starts EVER in the series. They have already decreased production. Supply is too high.

[Greget]

Apple claims the release of the iphone 14 was one of the worst starts EVER in the series. They have already decreased production. Supply is too high.

Partial birth abortion boy playing pretend economist.

[TheMoneyShot]

Partial birth abortion boy playing pretend economist.

Gregory... give your grandpa Biden a reacharound. Praise that dementia fukk.

[milwaukee mike]

gimme more more more more

greed is good

long term holding

if you're a long-term holder, why did you have any cash to begin with?

i think of it more as a MARKET OF STOCKS, not a stock market... meaning there is always a bargain somewhere... if you're nibbling on stuff like vra/gps/gld at what i consider good entry points, that to me is better than just buying the averages into higher interest rates and lower profits

amzn showed a loss last qtr, i have no idea how anyone could consider it cheap at a p/e of 50x when they no longer have any growth, same with nke and a ton of other companies, their earnings potential has totally disappeared and will probably never come back

[homie1975]

if you're a long-term holder, why did you have any cash to begin with?

i think of it more as a MARKET OF STOCKS, not a stock market... meaning there is always a bargain somewhere... if you're nibbling on stuff like vra/gps/gld at what i consider good entry points, that to me is better than just buying the averages into higher interest rates and lower profits

amzn showed a loss last qtr, i have no idea how anyone could consider it cheap at a p/e of 50x when they no longer have any growth, same with nke and a ton of other companies, their earnings potential has totally disappeared and will probably never come back

because i remember seeing what people went through in OCT 1987 and i vowed that i never be ALL IN in the market. i would always leave fresh gunpowder.

given the COVID crash of Feb through Mar 2020 and the downturn of Nov 2021 through Now, i am very very very happy i followed my vow.

Dollar Cost Averaging and building out LONG.

to each their own.

[milwaukee mike]

because i remember seeing what people went through in OCT 1987 and i vowed that i never be ALL IN in the market. i would always leave fresh gunpowder.

given the COVID crash of Feb through Mar 2020 and the downturn of Nov 2021 through Now, i am very very very happy i followed my vow.

Dollar Cost Averaging and building out LONG.

to each their own.

good points

i'm somewhat surprised the market is holding these gains (for now)... have to think it's more likely that the s&p is only up 35 at the close vs 95... so i would sell into this rally again

[Madison]

because i remember seeing what people went through in OCT 1987 and i vowed that i never be ALL IN in the market. i would always leave fresh gunpowder.

given the COVID crash of Feb through Mar 2020 and the downturn of Nov 2021 through Now, i am very very very happy i followed my vow.

Dollar Cost Averaging and building out LONG.

to each their own.

Hey Bud,

Ohhh Oct 1987. Was a flush relatively big time gambler at the time. Bought a boat load of Fidelity Magellan after the drop. We are polar opposites as I've never been a buy and hold type. Reasonably successful market timer here, although I did sell my Magellan at some point. Probably needed the $ during a dry period gambling. LOL

Afraid to think what stock would be worth today, but probably a safe bet I wouldn't be here posting.

[homie1975]

Hey Bud,

Ohhh Oct 1987. Was a flush relatively big time gambler at the time. Bought a boat load of Fidelity Magellan after the drop. We are polar opposites as I've never been a buy and hold type. Reasonably successful market timer here, although I did sell my Magellan at some point. Probably needed the $ during a dry period gambling. LOL

Afraid to think what stock would be worth today, but probably a safe bet I wouldn't be here posting.

Madder my brother!

This is why I hold over 80 companies but my largest position is QQQ and second largest is SPY, both tried and true index funds.

QQQ incepted in May 1999 and survived dot.com burst, 08 crisis, and COVID.

SPY incepted in Jan 1993.

those two make up approx 35% of my overall portfolio

another 35% are made up of 80 or so stocks of which 60 are bluechips and 20 high growth more spec tech plays, and of course BTC and ETH

last, the remaining 30% is Cash, slowly filtering in on deep pullbacks.

i come from the Warren Buffett school so i am very frugal and while i can easily afford a Tesla or two to drive, instead i drive two paid off cars and both are very reliable and were inside of $30K

my buddies? most drive Teslas. i don't want to hear them complaining in 10Y when i am way ahead of them and not worrying about money as they are spending like drunken sailors right now.

#1 is NEEDS
#2 is Investments
#3 is WANTS

i will get the last laugh but i won't show anyone i'm laughing, but they are watching and witnessing and my blueprint is nothing new.

it's now how much you make, it's how much you save and how much you INVEST

[homie1975]

was today a short squeeze rally? ;-)

[milwaukee mike]

good points about not spending a lot homie

i retired at 48, wife doesn't work, while everyone else i know that is close to my age is still working full time... and almost all of their spouses too

[homie1975]

good points about not spending a lot homie

i retired at 48, wife doesn't work, while everyone else i know that is close to my age is still working full time... and almost all of their spouses too

good on you Miker.
i am an "older dad" as i had children later in life and my wife is the homemaker and i the breadwinner so i will be working another 10 years but it's okay, i started everything late in life and that is on me.

guys like you (i am guessing) and many others started early and got to retire early because you were wise from the getgo.

i salute you !!