NOT Hedging: Has It Helped Or Hurt You?

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  • Hman
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-04-17
    • 21429

    #1
    NOT Hedging: Has It Helped Or Hurt You?
    Some guys like to let wagers ride while others choose to hedge when there's a guaranteed profit.

    Unfortunately for myself, years ago when I used to parlay a ton of games on the side mainly for fun, I've lost two 10-team parlays that went down to the final game.

    One of those was real cash, while the other was free play.

    Choosing not to hedge those last games cost me a few thousand.

    Those obviously stick out more than the times I might not have hedged & still won.

    How have you fared over time by NOT hedging?
  • Sam Odom
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-30-05
    • 58063

    #2
    Don't be afraid to win
    Comment
    • Hman
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-04-17
      • 21429

      #3
      Originally posted by Sam Odom
      Don't be afraid to win


      True

      Some clam it evens out.

      Not in my case.

      Curious to hear if others think they're up or down choosing not to hedge.
      Comment
      • lonegambler23
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 06-22-16
        • 9760

        #4
        my philosophy is if you think of hedging out of most your bets then gambling isnt for you. always let it ride it out. only thing to hedge is in big parlays for the payout.
        Comment
        • jjgold
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 07-20-05
          • 388179

          #5
          If your a pro and do it for a living you have to hedge just like stock traders

          Anyone else NO
          Comment
          • Sam Losco
            SBR MVP
            • 12-03-16
            • 3858

            #6
            i always let it ride. i dont gamble enough to warrant hedging
            Comment
            • Hman
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-04-17
              • 21429

              #7
              Originally posted by jjgold
              If your a pro and do it for a living you have to hedge just like stock traders

              Anyone else NO


              Yes I think the amount at stake matters a lot.
              Comment
              • jjgold
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 07-20-05
                • 388179

                #8
                I never hedge

                Small timer
                Comment
                • Hman
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-04-17
                  • 21429

                  #9
                  Originally posted by jjgold
                  I never hedge

                  Small timer


                  You don't have to hedge because you win 'em all
                  Comment
                  • Bsims
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 02-03-09
                    • 827

                    #10
                    I've done it when I'm looking at a large parlay payoff. The results are mixed. I really hate to do it, but do so anyway. Long term, it's probably a bad idea. It does lower variability but increases the juice you pay.
                    Comment
                    • jbayko
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 12-29-16
                      • 310

                      #11
                      Hedging is illogical unless you have received new information since placing the bet which makes you change your calculus on the win probability of one or more games.

                      Hear me out:

                      1. Based on the schedule of games when you placed that 10-game parlay, you knew in advance that - if you had any chance of winning - you would eventually be at the point where you were 9-0 and needing that last 1 game to win.

                      2. if you hedge, you are doubling the juice you pay on that last game.

                      3. Therefore, if you were going to chicken out at the 9-0 mark, then you might as well have just placed a 9-game parlay instead and not pay that extra juice.

                      Again, you KNEW that you would need to be 9-0 with 1 game left BEFORE you placed the bet. Absent new information, if you hedge, you are essentially admitting that you made a poor decision when you included that 10th game in the parlay. Either that, or you're making a poor decision now with the hedge. One of those MUST be true, so either way it's a mistake.
                      Comment
                      • HurryUpAndDrink
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 08-23-13
                        • 13017

                        #12
                        jbayko, solid assessment
                        Comment
                        • Sam Odom
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 10-30-05
                          • 58063

                          #13
                          Originally posted by jbayko
                          3. Therefore, if you were going to chicken out at the 9-0 mark, then you might as well have just placed a 9-game parlay instead and not pay that extra juice.

                          Again, you KNEW that you would need to be 9-0 with 1 game left BEFORE you placed the bet. Absent new information, if you hedge, you are essentially admitting that you made a poor decision when you included that 10th game.


                          in this scenario ^ 10 leg parlay

                          99.5% of the posters here would NOT have the cash to do a legit hedge on game 10
                          Comment
                          • jbayko
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 12-29-16
                            • 310

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Sam Odom
                            in this scenario ^ 10 leg parlay

                            99.5% of the posters here would NOT have the cash to do a legit hedge on game 10
                            Maybe, maybe not. But I was merely following along with OP's example. My logic still applies to hedging parlays of 2 games, 3 games, 4 games, etc. so your point is kind of a red herring.
                            Comment
                            • Sam Odom
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-30-05
                              • 58063

                              #15
                              Originally posted by jbayko

                              Maybe, maybe not.

                              understand... you did a very nice breakdown
                              Comment
                              • jjgold
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 07-20-05
                                • 388179

                                #16
                                If you’re not a big player you’re a jerk off if you hedge
                                Comment
                                • darrell74
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 04-16-07
                                  • 14648

                                  #17
                                  Just got back from betting horses, today.
                                  I hedged a favorite on the last leg of a pick 3 that paid 5/2.

                                  So my answer is YES
                                  Comment
                                  • Marco30
                                    SBR Rookie
                                    • 12-05-17
                                    • 26

                                    #18
                                    let it ride always and take it like a man.......
                                    Comment
                                    • Bonar--->
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 04-28-18
                                      • 38

                                      #19
                                      Hedge no.
                                      Comment
                                      • Booya711
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 12-20-11
                                        • 27329

                                        #20
                                        It depends on your Cash flow positive bookie
                                        Comment
                                        • beefcake
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-26-09
                                          • 14029

                                          #21
                                          I bet 1.00 on Leceister City at 5000-1..I hedged 500.00 on Tottenham at 8-1 with 4 games to go...Hell yes It was worth it...
                                          Comment
                                          • Josy
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 10-12-10
                                            • 157

                                            #22
                                            Hedge OR Not hedge?
                                            It depends on that you are a gambler or investor.
                                            If you are gambling - let it ride.
                                            If you are investing - you follow the most important rule you should have. And it's - PROTECT your bank at any cost. Than the answer - hedge.
                                            Comment
                                            • Gaze73
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-27-14
                                              • 3291

                                              #23
                                              Depends on how much the win affects your bankroll and how big it is. If the win is more than 15% of your BR you should hedge.
                                              Comment
                                              • rkelly110
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 10-05-09
                                                • 39691

                                                #24
                                                Someone explain to me how you would/ could hedge a 10 team parlay other than making a strong single bet that covers
                                                your 10 team bet or did I answer my own question?
                                                Comment
                                                • JayLA
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 09-11-12
                                                  • 7806

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Sam Losco
                                                  i always let it ride. i dont gamble enough to warrant hedging
                                                  exactly....you should only hedge if you make monster bets. small timers should just let it ride
                                                  Comment
                                                  • lonegambler23
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 06-22-16
                                                    • 9760

                                                    #26
                                                    always hedge out of your last leg of a parlay.. cant tell you how many ive lost by the last game
                                                    Comment
                                                    • lonegambler23
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 06-22-16
                                                      • 9760

                                                      #27
                                                      reguarding normal straight wagers. always let it ride out or else you shouldnt be gambling at all if youre looking to get off your bet. have a friend who does that when his wagers losing. really no point
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Slipknot26
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 07-17-15
                                                        • 5046

                                                        #28
                                                        Yes you hedge to ensure a profit off your investment.
                                                        Smaller , maybe let it ride . Larger return on investment , you would be crazy not to ensure a profit no matter what .
                                                        If you didn't , not exactly sure you're looking at gambling correctly . This is no different than purchasing stock
                                                        Ensure a Return on Investment
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Bsims
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 02-03-09
                                                          • 827

                                                          #29
                                                          While I'm conflicted on hedging, let me give an example of where it's may be a good idea on a single MLB game from yesterday. Heritage opened CWS +118 and KC -127. Let's say you like CWS and lay $1000 to win $1180. Later Heritage moved the line to CWS +126 and KC -136. Here the public and books disagree somewhat on your pick and you could have gotten a better deal by waiting to place the CWS wager. Assuming you still like the CWS pick, you can hedge a bit by taking KC for $500, wagering $680 to win $500. This has decreased your net wager on CWS to $320 to win $680. Now you have not only lowered your risk to $320 but changed the odds to the CWS wager to +212. Seems like a good move.

                                                          OK, it is Sunday morning and I'm a bit fuzzy. Where is my math wrong?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • jjgold
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 07-20-05
                                                            • 388179

                                                            #30
                                                            In the long run it’s probably even out either way
                                                            Comment
                                                            • fourlokobro
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 06-02-17
                                                              • 302

                                                              #31
                                                              On single games, I have a degen tendency to hedge with live betting on NBA and MLB whenever I take the dog before gametime and get the chance to buy the favorite back at huge discount...

                                                              Ex) 4/14/18... Bet Braves ML +160 against Cubs and Over 6.5.... Cubs down 10-2 after 4 innings... Line has moved from Cubs -1.5 to Cubs +7.5 RL at -115...Over already hit, Braves look like easy winner, buy the cubs +7.5... Cubs comeback and win 14-10... Thus hedging "mistake" created the payout scenarios below

                                                              Without In-game Hedge
                                                              Braves win by 7.5 or more = +2.6u
                                                              Braves win by less than 7.5 = +2.6u
                                                              Cubs win = +1u

                                                              With In-game Hedge
                                                              Braves win by 7.5 or more = +1.5u
                                                              Braves win by less than 7.5 = +3.6u
                                                              Cubs Win = +1u

                                                              So basically I moved my risk to Cubs covering the 7.5 complete game to pay 3.6u by selling some of my percieved earnings that I already have on ATL at such a great price before first pitch. That is a middle I feel awesome about.... Granted Cubs came back and won the whole thing so it was all a wash (great game to track on SBR Forum no doubt) but these sort of opportunities to increase my winnings without any additional net risk of capital on a single game are always my biggest temptation to hedge.

                                                              TLDR... Bet the favorite live if you're riding a live dog already and prices shift

                                                              Is this a sound strategy or am I overthinking the live action and costing myself potential units??
                                                              Comment
                                                              • u21c3f6
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 01-17-09
                                                                • 790

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Bsims
                                                                While I'm conflicted on hedging, let me give an example of where it's may be a good idea on a single MLB game from yesterday. Heritage opened CWS +118 and KC -127. Let's say you like CWS and lay $1000 to win $1180. Later Heritage moved the line to CWS +126 and KC -136. Here the public and books disagree somewhat on your pick and you could have gotten a better deal by waiting to place the CWS wager. Assuming you still like the CWS pick, you can hedge a bit by taking KC for $500, wagering $680 to win $500. This has decreased your net wager on CWS to $320 to win $680. Now you have not only lowered your risk to $320 but changed the odds to the CWS wager to +212. Seems like a good move.

                                                                OK, it is Sunday morning and I'm a bit fuzzy. Where is my math wrong?
                                                                Your hedge is now $500 ($1000-500) to win $500 ($1180-680)

                                                                Joe.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Bsims
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 02-03-09
                                                                  • 827

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by u21c3f6
                                                                  Your hedge is now $500 ($1000-500) to win $500 ($1180-680)
                                                                  Joe.
                                                                  Thanks Joe, that's why I needed another eye on my morning fuzzy math. It seems intuitively to me that the only potential hedge is if the line moves with you, not against you as in my example. But in that case, you would just be lowering your risk and weakening the odds you got initially. So I was completely wrong. (My friends really love it when I utter those words.)
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • A4K
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 10-08-12
                                                                    • 5243

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I only hedge when I have a legitimate crack at a nice middle. Had a 5 run baseball middle on Mets @ Braves last week and hit. Had u8.5 and over 3.5 on LIVE BET. Cha ching!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • High3rEl3m3nt
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 09-28-10
                                                                      • 8022

                                                                      #35
                                                                      bound to remember only the times that it has not worked out...a gambler's memory is twisted
                                                                      Comment
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