NOT Hedging: Has It Helped Or Hurt You?

[LVHerbie]

this is not true

there are plenty of circumstances where making a -ev bet leads to a +eg situation

but what do you expect from people who bet in units

My post was meant to taken broadly. There are few if any absolutes in gambling and (as someone who plays alot of Video Poker) I make decisions pretty much everyday that, if taken independently, would be slightly -EV but "become" +EV (or +EG or whatever...) when combined with the opportunities that play creates.

With all due respect gentlemen, using the Kelly criteria or any progressive betting system for sports is not a good idea. I really fell in love with the Kelly criteria when I first tumbled on it a few decades ago. I attempted to implement it in my systems for several years. Unfortunately, I was never able to demonstrate that the results were superior to flat (unit) betting. In fact, after a successful season of wagering with Kelly, I went back and asked what would have happened if I had just made flat bets with the same amount of money. I always found the Kelly approach to be less profitable.

The fool that I am, I am still trying to use a variation of Kelly with my current run line wagers. I'm just finishing up a study of the impact of using multiple outs on this system. Unfortunately, once again out of curiosity, I compared the results to flat wagers and found the flat wagers superior. I'll publish these results soon.

As an example of a non-absolute Kelly Criterion is a good example. I actually have an article length idea running around in my head (if I ever get time to write it) about why in alot of cases it is wrong to base your gambling on Kelly. Due to lack of time and, likely a lack of a market for it, it probably won't get wrote anytime soon...

[k13]

Hedging futures is a must or else you'll be a loser forever like Vegas hockey holders.

[LVHerbie]

Hedging futures is a must or else you'll be a loser forever like Vegas hockey holders.

I good start to understanding hedging would be understand that the value of bet, of both original and the hedge, at the time you make them is what matters.

[tsty]

I make decisions pretty much everyday that, if taken independently, would be slightly -EV but "become" +EV (or +EG or whatever...) when combined with the opportunities that play creates.

You have no idea what you are talking about.

You don't even understand what EV is or the difference between EV and EG.

Not surprising that you play poker since poker players are clueless

[Bsims]

You don't even understand what EV is or the difference between EV and EG.

Tsty, please explain your definitions of these terms.

[Bsims]

Bsims, with all due respect and by your own account, you have no basis for making the statement above. It is a variation of the statements made on here that no one can win at sports betting. Just because one cannot do something it does not mean that no one else can.

If one truly has an edge and can reasonably quantify it (you don't need to be perfect and a good reason not to wager full Kelly) Kelly and/or % betting is undeniably superior to flat betting and can be mathematically proven. Anyone that has an edge can prove it to themselves as well. If you truly had an edge, I am not sure how you came to your conclusion but I am very sure that you miscalculated or mishandled something along the way.

Joe.

Joe,

I respect your opinion and because of that, I've decided to take another look at Kelly. I'm starting a new topic here called "Kelly Re-Visited" to focus only on this issue. Let's have a good discussion about this question.

[tsty]

Tsty, please explain your definitions of these terms.

It's not "my" definition. There is only one definition. You guys just don't know what it is.

Interchanging expected value and expected growth is retarded

[TheSchafe]

If I were to hedge (I only would if there was a substantial amount of money involved), I'd hope to hammer a good live line if the final leg I'm hedging is a heavy favorite and they get off to a slow start.

Usually my parlay legs (and plays in general) are all -130 or lower (toward the underdog side), though. 99 times out of 100 I've just let it ride. The losses are painful, yes, but with so little original money invested, they usually don't pay out more than $2000.

I always have 2-5 straight wagers a day coupled with 2 low-dollar, longshot parlays. Units are $100 and bet on a 5-tier scale, so $500 is my strongest, relatively rare play (once a month, on average)...usually my parlays are 4-8 teamers, $20 a piece. If I'm confident, I'll round robin my strongest play in a parlay wheel. Usually don't like having all my eggs in one basket, though.

[Don_Omarion]

Hedged in Russia game and lost 1.2 Units .. If I did not hedge, should now be a winner ...

Hedging is useful in NBA only in my opinion