Laying horses - Starting from Feb-12-2018

**JBEX** · 02-14-18, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by arie1985

You mean how much I'm paying above the SP price?

this stuff is all new to me.. what is the sp price? do fixed odds move right up till the race is run with the understanding that you're locked in at whatever price you got.. guessing yes

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 11:45 AM

I wasn't home so placed this one from my mobile, it was a 200 odds on this one, with 4 horses running, one of my favorite typical races to lay.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 11:47 AM

Had another one, this one made using my PC:

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

this stuff is all new to me.. what is the sp price? do fixed odds move right up till the race is run with the understanding that you're locked in at whatever price you got.. guessing yes

No, the price you book it (back or lay) is the price you get, it's not fixed to the SP price but the price you see on the screen is fixed itself.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 12:00 PM

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by ichiro4thehall

I agree that waiting until a few minutes before the race starts is better for you. It protects you from some cheating horses.

I do lay high prices sometimes. I have never tried to systematically lay high priced events just because they are unlikely to happen. Most betting markets are pretty efficient, and to beat the market you must know something the market(everybody else) does not know. If you don't then on average any horse you lay at 99/1 on Betfair will win 1 percent of the time and you will lose 3 percent longterm(or whatever commission rate you pay)

Let's say I win 10 EUR from each race (which is extreme as I think I average 15 EUR per race), so that requires 400 races i.e. 400 bets to win, just to get the investment back - is it worth it? I don't know, I'm currently trying it.

Yes, I did notice that betting too far from the race can be extremely dangerous - that's what I learned from what was discussed in the beginning of this thread. It's not only the timing but also other factors.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by ichiro4thehall

Arie, you ever tried trading on horse bets? I think it would suit your personality.

You mean buy and sell? Nah, not for me...

You guys are into gambling.
I'm seeing this as a pure investment, I have no idea how far it will go but as long as it continues I continue as well ... I am not doing this fulltime, and if I need to attend to personal matters they will supersede these races .... I'm not using a loan for this, just using my own money and trying to see how far this investment will go, what will be the yield eventually.

As you can also appreciate I skipped intentionally on so many races, simply because these races didn't produce odds I was happy with (e.g. the race I lost in the beginning of the thread - I don't want to repeat such a "mistake" and that's why I'm trying be very careful with choices I make here).

The next one I'm looking at might be 40m from now @ Wolverhampton, there is a horse with 200 odds there.

**jjgold** · 02-14-18, 12:20 PM

Seems approx 15 winning bets equals 1 loser?

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Seems approx 15 winning bets equals 1 loser?

No, 400 winning bets equal 1 loser (approx.) - if you lose 4,000 EUR because of 1 bet - that's it, you're done with this, there's no 2nd chance.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

No, 400 winning bets equal 1 loser (approx.) - if you lose 4,000 EUR because of 1 bet - that's it, you're done with this, there's no 2nd chance.

Well, not 400 exactly ... if you avg. say 20 EUR pet bet, then it's 200 bets, but you get the gist of it...

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 12:39 PM

Unbelievable ... take a look yourself:

Bet365 has "Got My Mojo" for 251, William Hill for 200
You can get it for 1000 @ 9Wickets ...

You guys realize people like me are willing to risk 1,000 EUR just to get 1 EUR by betting against this horse?!

Darn... I can't bet on it, even if I would offer 1000 it won't be good enough (and I can't offer it neither as it would be only 4 EUR stakes and my minimum is 10 EUR).

The only thing I can try is to offer live odds on this one @ odds of 400 in live, I'll try it in 5-6 minutes and see if it works.

**JBEX** · 02-14-18, 12:43 PM

I think this would work better with US racing because your odds are being determined through para-mutuel betting rather than fixed odds.. If a horse is going off at 50-1with 3 mtp and you get a taker at 70-1 the favorite long shot bias kicks in and you still have an edge.. I think at 80-1 or higher you're laying too much on this type to be profitable over the long haul

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 12:50 PM

It didn't work - odds remained 1000 on this one throughout the race, just showing you how crazy people are willing to go with such lays.

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 12:51 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

I think this would work better with US racing because your odds are being determined through para-mutuel betting rather than fixed odds.. If a horse is going off at 50-1with 3 mtp and you get a taker at 70-1 the favorite long shot bias kicks in and you still have an edge.. I think at 80-1 or higher you're laying too much on this type to be profitable over the long haul

The US ones barely get 100 odds or so, I'd probably avoid them moving forward unless they really produce a huge underdog.

**JBEX** · 02-14-18, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

The US ones barely get 100 odds or so, I'd probably avoid them moving forward unless they really produce a huge underdog.

yes but you wouldn't be risking the house with every lay.. shorter odds =smaller amount needed per wager.. the most important thing imo is you know or feel strongly that you're offering less to the taker than he should get.. realize this is probably not what you're interested in doing so just giving another viewpoint

**littlekona** · 02-14-18, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

Unbelievable ... take a look yourself:

Bet365 has "Got My Mojo" for 251, William Hill for 200
You can get it for 1000 @ 9Wickets ...

You guys realize people like me are willing to risk 1,000 EUR just to get 1 EUR by betting against this horse?!

Darn... I can't bet on it, even if I would offer 1000 it won't be good enough (and I can't offer it neither as it would be only 4 EUR stakes and my minimum is 10 EUR).

The only thing I can try is to offer live odds on this one @ odds of 400 in live, I'll try it in 5-6 minutes and see if it works.

Im on 9wickets and Fairlay all the time....Fairlay about same odds less liquidity but NO 10 MIN STAKE that is a big plus

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by littlekona

Im on 9wickets and Fairlay all the time....Fairlay about same odds less liquidity but NO 10 MIN STAKE that is a big plus

What do you mean?

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 01:20 PM

This time I managed to grab something in live from Wolverhampton, not much but considering the solidness of 1000 odds pre-race, I just jumped on the opportunity to get a bit in live for less:

Seems like "Breaking Records" won this race btw.

**littlekona** · 02-14-18, 01:59 PM

the stake is min 10 at 9wickets its .1mbtc at fairlay so you can wager any amount like 2mbtc on a 50-1 shot it will take bet.....but they grade slower takes 20 mins after race to grade

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by littlekona

the stake is min 10 at 9wickets its .1mbtc at fairlay so you can wager any amount like 2mbtc on a 50-1 shot it will take bet.....but they grade slower takes 20 mins after race to grade

Oh I see... but then you have to use a Bitcoin currency instead of Euro, right?
Don't you think Bitcoin is in a bubble?

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 02:27 PM

P&L so far for Feb 2018:

**arie1985** · 02-14-18, 09:51 PM

My 1st bet on a race in New Zealand against a horse that had 151.00 in SportsBet.com.au

**arie1985** · 02-15-18, 12:11 AM

Race 5 in Kangaroo Island:

Good luck!

**arie1985** · 02-15-18, 12:53 AM

The next interesting race is about half an hour from now in Shepparton, Australia:

There are 3 horses there that have an opening of very high odds.

**arie1985** · 02-15-18, 01:25 AM

**arie1985** · 02-15-18, 02:19 AM

This is an example for a longshot horse I would be wary of:

The horse is reasonably young, but there isn't enough information on this one - so the odds here might not worth it.
What would push to lay this one is the length of the racetrack (Race 9 is 2500m which is quite long), and checking the odds minutes before the race.

Nonetheless - there is a race starting in about 10 minutes (Race 9 would start 3-4 minutes after this one) - Race 2 in Pakenham:

The one to lay here looks like "Stryke of Divine".

**arie1985** · 02-15-18, 02:30 AM

Good luck!

**arie1985** · 02-15-18, 02:47 AM

Only Race 7 in Pakenham (in about 2 hours) has some interesting horses to lay.
Perhaps laying "La Sobrina" in Race 6 is another option but it's too far away, we got plenty of time until then.

For now here is Race 7 as of now, 2+ hours away:

**arie1985** · 02-15-18, 03:33 AM

Originally posted by littlekona

wow 3700 Euro to win 9....i have no words I can say im speechless esp after what happened yesterday....

Have you seen how people are risking 10,000 to win 10 comfortably before a race has even started:

Originally posted by arie1985

Unbelievable ... take a look yourself:

Bet365 has "Got My Mojo" for 251, William Hill for 200
You can get it for 1000 @ 9Wickets ...

You guys realize people like me are willing to risk 1,000 EUR just to get 1 EUR by betting against this horse?!

Darn... I can't bet on it, even if I would offer 1000 it won't be good enough (and I can't offer it neither as it would be only 4 EUR stakes and my minimum is 10 EUR).

The only thing I can try is to offer live odds on this one @ odds of 400 in live, I'll try it in 5-6 minutes and see if it works.

And please see this:

Originally posted by arie1985

Perceptive Miss wins the race, I think only these types of bets are the ones to go for here, only against odds of 101.00 or so, otherwise it's just too risky - what do you think?

I think so far from this experience, you have to check the horse Form (recent results), odds, market behavior, and rely on 1-2 good betting websites that update the odds in real time (e.g. Sportsbet.com.au for AU/NZ races, and Interbet.co.za for SA races).

The losing bet in the beginning of this thread was on a horse that had a 17.00 odds, this is definitely not in my plans to lay horses @ these prices anymore, these guys can win races easily.

It's those with 126, 151, 200 that are mostly interesting, I've tried to google search and check how often these huge longshots win and I couldn't find many occasions when they do. Still - yes, the risk is always there. Always.

**arie1985** · 02-15-18, 04:30 AM

La Sabrina is 101 in Bet365 & Sportsbet.com.au - Good luck!

**arie1985** · 02-15-18, 05:05 AM

I tried to bet against Tremec in Race 7, no one took the 400 offer, the cheapest was 460 but I couldn't afford it with my bankroll.

**arie1985** · 02-15-18, 05:09 AM

This one is 101 in interbet.co.za, Good Luck!

**arie1985** · 02-15-18, 05:59 AM

Race 2 in Vaal, South Africa, has a delay of over 20 minutes because the riders protested on some inconsistencies in the 1st race - also there is rain in the race but looks like the 2nd race would be ready to go shortly in 10 minutes, will keep you posted.

**arie1985** · 02-15-18, 06:07 AM

I got so far a small amount matched, some other people offer as high as 440 which is more than I can afford:

4 minutes to go so it could change.

**arie1985** · 02-15-18, 06:10 AM

Atomic Kitten in this Race 2 was around 60-70 and now the rider has changed - odds dropped on this one to the 40-50 area.
Just showing South Africa races are not 100% reliable like the OZ or British ones, I'd lay only high odds here (100ish).