VERY Early US Open Golf Thoughts: Why Tiger Is Bad value.

[englishmike]

Before I look for a winner, I like to look at the players I can rule out so as to make the list of possible winners shorter. Obviously this is an 'opinion' thing but it works ok for me.

My books are showing Tiger Woods 2-1 Fav and I'll rule him out on price alone. I'm not saying he can't win and I actually think he'll be there or thereabouts, but at 2-1 his price is ridiculous and is arrived at by the weight of public money he'll attract, rather than as an indication of his true chance of winning.

For what it's worth, just my opinion, Tiger Woods would have to be at least 4-1 before I backed him and I'll be watching in-play markets very closely if he gets off to a miserable start. On the subject of books that offer in-play odds, this is another reason to swerve Woods at prohibitive odds. Unless he gets off to a flyer he can only lengthen in odds, so rather than take a ridiculous 2-1 I'd rather see how he starts and maybe grab 4-1 when he's 5 or 6 back from a quick starter after 5 or 6 holes. Just my opinion.

Another reason Woods is a ridiculous price is because the last time the US Open was at Bethpage, Tiger won by three shots with Mickelson second. Mickelson is available at 16-1 and whilst I wouldn't back him either, I feel there is more value in Phil at 16's than there is in Tiger at 2-1. Don't be fooled by that though, Phil won't win either.

I'm happy to rule out Woods, Mickelson, Furyk, Stricker, Villegas, Harrington and Garcia, for various reasons which I won't bore you with here. I'm leaning towards two players, one at 50-1 and a 100-1 shot. Keep you posted, all views welcome.

[durito]

Pinnacle has tiger not to win at -210. I've lost these way too many times in the past, but it' still probably a decent play.

[englishmike]

Tiger at 2-1 around Bethpage is based on his profile rather than the true reflective odds of his chance.

I wouldn' play him at -210 not to win either but the value lies with the 'not-to-win-bet' as opposed the win bet.

[pavyracer]

Last time someone won it back to back was 20 years ago. US Open is the toughest open to win back to back ever because it is always played in the middle of the summer and it's ****ing hot everywhere in the US.

[jjgold]

Solid Info men, you guys are good.

Now I do not know who to bet.

[smitch124]

Not Pebble Beach, still nice and cool there...

[pavyracer]

Maybe this year is cool but in a typical 20 year span there are numerous back to back hot venues because it's played all over place. It's not like England or Scotland where it is always cool or Augusta where it is always the same weather.

[englishmike]

The thing that makes betting on Golf and Tennis different to many other sports is you have to have the discipline to refuse to bet on players that have an outstanding chance of winning if you feel their price is ridiculous.

Tiger fits this category perfectly.

[englishmike]

Just had a good look and made my first play, which is Retief Goosen 47-1 (2 Units Win-Betfair) & (2 Units Top 5 Finish 9-1 Betfair)

Goosen is under the radar a bit, partly due to his feast or famine US Open record. In his last ten US Opens he's missed the cut five times (including this course in 2002) but in his other five tries he's finished T11, T12, T42 and won it twice, so a large part of betting on Goosen is hoping he makes the cut. The stat that says he's got the 14th best scoring average for his first two rounds on tour this year was the thing that swayed me and If he does make the cut he won't be 50-1 and Open history shows he plays well over the weekend if he's competing.



He's played well this year, winning once (in March) and his last three tournaments he's finished 11th, 22nd and 29th, which at least shows he's playing ok. Most of my books show 40-1.

Betfair are longest about him, that's why I've bet today.

[emoney]

I am relatively new to SBR but I feel the need to respond to this thread. I am a local club golf professional which means nothing other than the fact that I think I have more of an understanding of the sport of golf than any other sport.

I am not a Tiger Woods fan, I do not root for or against him in any given tournament. I am not one of these guys who walks around talking about Tiger Woods this and Tiger Woods that.

Having said that, people that are not in the golf world don't really understand how amazing this guy really is. I feel lucky to be alive at a time when I get to watch it. Prior to Tiger, it would have been unthinkable that a guy would be 2 to 1 against the field in a golf tournament, let alone a major like a U.S. Open. I can assure you that Jack was never +200 to win a golf tournament.

The PGA and the USGA are doing everything they can to "Tiger Proof" golf courses by making them longer and harder. All this is really doing though, is making the golf courses more in his favor by taking a lot of guys out of the mix. If they really wanted to bring more people into the competition, they would make the courses easier, not harder and turn the tournament into a putting contest.

Bethpage Black is one of the longest and hardest golf courses in the country. This gives Tiger an even greater advantage. I can see how someone might think that any player at 2 to 1 against the field is not a good value from a betting standpoint. But, I am here to tell anybody that wants to listen that this is free money. Not only will Tiger Woods win this tournament, but it might be a replay of 2000 at Pebble Beach when he won by fifteen. I would take Tiger even if the odds were minus 200, which is what I think it should be.

So, however much money you want, just bet half on Tiger Woods. This is the easiest money you will ever make. Any other bet, you would have more fun just setting fire to your money.

If I am wrong, I will never post here again. (Not that anybody will miss me.) But that is my personal guarantee.

For those of you looking for a "long shot": take Henrik Stenson at +5000.

Thanks,

Emoney

[lakerboy]

paidrag harrington is a good longshot

[englishmike]

This is free money...So, however much money you want, just bet half on Tiger Woods. This is the easiest money you will ever make. Any other bet, you would have more fun just setting fire to your money.

This statement is ridiculous. The basic math alone (53 Majors played V 14 Majors won) means he should be longer than 2-1 and we haven't even discussed the 150 competitors and the fact that the course is just as hard for Tiger as it is the rest of the field, even if he is by far the best player on show.

You obviously don't understand the dynamic of bookmakers making prices based on financial liabilities as well as World ranking, recent form and a plethora of other relevent information.

That said, of course he can win and you make some good points as to why he might, but to suggest this is in some way 'free money' is wrong. And if you truly feel it is free money, I assume you're mortgaging your house and getting a bank loan to place the bets?
Loved your post though.

[pavyracer]

My main bet is A.Scott at +15000. He is playing excellent at the moment and he knows the course well.

[wtf]

you guys should not bet win only, take some place action

gut wrenching if your guy comes third by a stroke

[raydog]

ill take tiger at +money for the open. he hit a bunch of fairways at the memorial. if he does that at bpb, he wins. dont waste money on harrington. ** the last 2 weeks and has been playing like absolute dog shit. thats why he was a dog in a lot of matches last week. stensen looked like turd last week too, fukk him. furyk and ogilvy drive it straight... worth a look

hey mike, awesome pick last week on Gay. tiger is the play this week though imo.

[englishmike]

I've got Goosen first 5 WTF, I'm English, each-way is all we know.

[englishmike]

ill take tiger at +money for the open. he hit a bunch of fairways at the memorial. if he does that at bpb, he wins. dont waste money on harrington. ** the last 2 weeks and has been playing like absolute dog shit. thats why he was a dog in a lot of matches last week. stensen looked like turd last week too, fukk him. furyk and ernie drive it straight... worth a look

hey mike, awesome pick last week on Gay. tiger is the play this week though imo.

Don't disagree at all Ray, Woods is a worthy fav, World Number One and has the game to win and if he does win I won't be in the least bit surprised, nothing he does surprises me anymore. That said, I couldn't back him at 2-1 under any circumstances for reasons I've given above, but if you do good luck with your bet.

[RAILBIRD]

Don't disagree at all Ray, Woods is a worthy fav, World Number One and has the game to win and if he does win I won't be in the least bit surprised, nothing he does surprises me anymore. That said, I couldn't back him at 2-1 under any circumstances for reasons I've given above, but if you do good luck with your bet.

You ve yet to give a competent reason why he wont win.

You could not pick a better course for Tiger to play. Golf talent is at an all time low. 2-1 stealing here imo, should be 6-5 at most. Infact I think it closes 9-5

[Matt Rain]

Thanks EM. SIA only had +4000 for a Goosen win, but +1000 on a top 5 finish. I'm in for the max - all of 88 Canadian tomatoes.

Will try to play your other selection too.

[Matt Rain]

My main bet is A.Scott at +15000. He is playing excellent at the moment and he knows the course well.

+29000 at Betfair.

[pavyracer]

+29000 at Betfair.

Thanks. I will open an account and bet on him there too. Can't believe people are not betting on him.

[floridagolfer]

My main bet is A.Scott at +15000. He is playing excellent at the moment and he knows the course well.

He knows the course well? That's nothing but wishful thinking on your part; he's played there one time (2002 U.S. Open) and missed the cut by a million shots (77-80).

[englishmike]

You ve yet to give a competent reason why he wont win.

You could not pick a better course for Tiger to play. Golf talent is at an all time low. 2-1 stealing here imo, should be 6-5 at most. Infact I think it closes 9-5

OK, let me clarify this one more time for people who don't read posts properly. Tiger Woods CAN win the US Open and is a worthy favorite, and I repeat, if he does win I wont be in the least bit surprised, at no point am i saying Tiger Woods CAN'T win.

I don't need to give a reason why he will or won't win, what i am saying, (I repeat) is his price of 2-1 doesn't represent fair market value IN MY OPINION and for that reason I personally wouldn't touch him.

This will be Tigers 15th US Open and he's won it three times. You do the math.

With that said, if you feel 2-1 is fair market value then you should back him because he's the best player in the field but he doesn't represent fair market value to me. Whether he wins or not, if a golfer that should be 7-2 but is priced at 2-1 wins it's something I can live with.

Let me restate, I don't claim to be right, it's purely my opinion, it's a good debate.

Good luck if you play him.

[themajormt]

I actually like Phil... he has the motivation factor and has proven he can play this course. I took him at 18-1

[englishmike]

Thanks EM. SIA only had +4000 for a Goosen win, but +1000 on a top 5 finish. I'm in for the max - all of 88 Canadian tomatoes.

Will try to play your other selection too.

Glad you're tailing Matty, as I said, the rationale is simple. History shows this guy plays great US open golf if he makes the cut, including two wins, so making the cut is obviously critical, but the fact he's ranked 14th in first and second round scoring on tour this year means he has an outstanding chance of weekend golf. I like the fact he's won this twice before, it shows he's got discipline.

[englishmike]

I actually like Phil... he has the motivation factor and has proven he can play this course. I took him at 18-1

Perfect example. 18-1 is more than a fair price considering he's had three seconds and finished only three back of Tiger last time it was played here.

[durito]

US Open: General Props
Thu 6/18 Will there be a hole in one?
Maximum Wager: 500.00 USD
05:00 AM 501 Yes +135 Risk To Win
502 No -145 Risk To Win
Thu 6/18 Will there be a playoff?
Maximum Wager: 500.00 USD
05:00 AM 503 Yes +273 Risk To Win
504 No -303 Risk To Win
Thu 6/18 Lowest completed round?
Maximum Wager: 100.00 USD
05:00 AM 505 OVER 65.5 Strokes -119 Risk To Win
506 UNDER 65.5 Strokes +109 Risk To Win
Thu 6/18 Winning 72 hole score?
Maximum Wager: 100.00 USD
05:00 AM 507 OVER 277.5 Strokes -105 Risk To Win
508 UNDER 277.5 Strokes -105

[Matt Rain]

Where is that, durito?

[englishmike]

Hole in one prop: Four Par 3's ranging from 158 to 232 Yds. I'm not sure the number of players in the field but if you say it's 150 you have 1200 attempts for the first two rounds and approx 600 for the last two rounds, giving you approx 1800 attempts at a hole in one.

Not sure if this info is useful but it does give a person an idea of some numbers.

The interesting thing about lowest round prop (65.5) is they're saying they think the average round score will be 69.375 (Winning 72 Hole Prop Number) so the question becomes, can one of Approx 150 golfers shave approx 4 shots off the expected avg score. I say yes, history of golf is littered with nobodies who shot 64 on the first day of a major for 15 mins of fame only to finish tied 60th.

[smitch124]

What was the lowest round in 2002?

[pavyracer]

Wow! Still no love for A.Scott. He was only 20 years old on last US Open there. He is more mature now and he has a hot broad. Everything is destined towards an A.Scott win this weekend.

[englishmike]

What was the lowest round in 2002?

I've no clue, looking now, but whatever it was is negated (in my humble opinion) by the advancement of equipment technology. i'd fancy at least one player to go low given calm conditions.

[smitch124]

Nick Faldo managed a 66, he had the lowest round.

[raydog]

Wow! Still no love for A.Scott. He was only 20 years old on last US Open there. He is more mature now and he has a hot broad. Everything is destined towards an A.Scott win this weekend.

pavy, let me put this to you in the nicest possible way....

adam scott fukking sucks right now. he has made 1 cut in the last 3 months. missed 7 of last 8 cuts and is in the worst slump of his life. you would have to be a complete total fukking moron to waste even a single dollar on adam scott.

does that answer your question as to why he is getting no love?

[englishmike]

Nick Faldo managed a 66, he had the lowest round.

That's interesting on a number of levels, the main one being he wasn't very long off the tee but always hit the fairway. I still say 65 will lead it on Thursday but it's very very tight, i like +109 for what looks like a coin flip to me.