VERY Early US Open Golf Thoughts: Why Tiger Is Bad value.

[englishmike]

pavy, let me put this to you in the nicest possible way....

adam scott fukking sucks right now. he has made 1 cut in the last 3 months. missed 7 of last 8 cuts and is in the worst slump of his life. you would have to be a complete total fukking moron to waste even a single dollar on adam scott.

does that answer your question as to why he is getting no love?

Thanks Ray, I didn't know how to tell Paves. Interesting that he mentions broads though, whilst Tiger is at the range, Scott is at parties.

[pavyracer]

raydog,

You are trying to pick a winner out of 128 guys. I am taking him, A.Scott, this year at juicy +15000 odds. If he sucked like you say why would they give him these odds. Tiger Woods can blow his left knee this time. Phil Mickelson has breast cancer. And then there it is A.Scott on the final round lurking -3 shots from the leaders. You will remember when he lits up the scoring board on Sunday afternoon but the +15000 won't be available anymore. Remember when M.Campbell won in 2005. How many thought he would win that year? A.Scott is my Aussie to win it all this year. I have done my due diligence and picked him through 72 different filters through my mathematical model.

[raydog]

pavy....get a new math model cus yours is broken and your money is DEAD MONEY... his odds need to be 3x what they are in order to carry any value. you need to find a prop on him making the cut. probably get a good price on it

campbell didnt miss the cut in 7 of his last 8 events before he won either.

good luck and god bless your golf plays pavy e racer

[smitch124]

Pavy, you need at least 90 filters, did you consider head covers?

[CaneDawg]

my first play is poulter

a few more to follow

[pavyracer]

smitch,

I have 18 filters I haven't used yet like temperature, wind direction, cloud cover, fire ant menstrual cycle, etc which are considered on a day by day basis once the tourney starts.

[englishmike]

Pavy, you need at least 90 filters, did you consider head covers?

[englishmike]

Soren Kjeldson 1/2 Unit Win @ 349-1 & 1 Unit Top 5 Finish 33-1 (Betfair)

Ross Fisher 1/2 Unit Win @ 169-1 & 1 Unit Top 5 finish 21-1 (Betfair)

Retief Goosen 2 Units Win @ 47-1 & 2 Units Top 5 Finish 9-1 (Betfair)

[englishmike]

After much thought between Geoff Ogilvy and Paul Casey my last bet is going to be Three Units on Ogilvy. When you study his record it's pretty impressive: He's top of the money list, 2nd in the Fed Ex Cup race, hasn't missed a cut in 12 tournaments this year, has won 3 of the last 14 he's played in highest company, is a previous US Open winner (2006) and is currently number 1 in birdie average stats.

I've invested 10 Units total.

Mike Weir 1 1/2 Unit Win (Betfair)

Ross Fisher 1/2 Unit Win @ 169-1 & 1 Unit Top 5 finish 21-1 (Betfair)

Retief Goosen 2 Units Win @ 47-1 & 2 Units Top 5 Finish 9-1 (Betfair)

Geoff Ogilvy 3 Units Win @ 20-1 (William Hill)

[shhhhh22]

After much thought between Geoff Ogilvy and Paul Casey my last bet is going to be Three Units on Ogilvy. When you study his record it's pretty impressive: He's top of the money list, 2nd in the Fed Ex Cup race, hasn't missed a cut in 12 tournaments this year, has won 3 of the last 14 he's played in highest company, is a previous US Open winner (2006) and is currently number 1 in birdie average stats.

I've invested 10 Units total.

Soren Kjeldson 1/2 Unit Win @ 349-1 & 1 Unit Top 5 Finish 33-1 (Betfair)

Ross Fisher 1/2 Unit Win @ 169-1 & 1 Unit Top 5 finish 21-1 (Betfair)

Retief Goosen 2 Units Win @ 47-1 & 2 Units Top 5 Finish 9-1 (Betfair)

Geoff Ogilvy 3 Units Win @ 20-1 (William Hill)

I like the Goosen pick. you should check out my prop thread and throw your voice into the mix.!

[forloveofthegame]

all my money is on ogilvy...i did my research and this guy stood out from the pack. also doing a small play on stenson

[pavyracer]

Here are my final picks:

A.Scott +15000 - 1 unit
P.Harrington +5000 - 1 unit
V.Singh +5500 - 1 unit
S.Garcia +4000 - 1.5 units
J. Rose +17500 - 0.5 units

Good luck!

[MrLuckyPants]

Here are my shouts for this week

Geoff Ogilvy!

Paul Casey!

and... in a tournament match... Furyk to beat Mickelson.

GL all

[shhhhh22]

Soren Kjeldson 1/2 Unit Win @ 349-1 & 1 Unit Top 5 Finish 33-1 (Betfair)

Ross Fisher 1/2 Unit Win @ 169-1 & 1 Unit Top 5 finish 21-1 (Betfair)

Retief Goosen 2 Units Win @ 47-1 & 2 Units Top 5 Finish 9-1 (Betfair)

Geoff Ogilvy 3 Units Win @ 20-1 (William Hill)

Looks like Kjeldson is out with ear infection; you replacing him with anyone or just gonna roll with 8.5 units??

[accuscoresucks]

raydog,

You are trying to pick a winner out of 128 guys. I am taking him, A.Scott, this year at juicy +15000 odds. If he sucked like you say why would they give him these odds. Tiger Woods can blow his left knee this time. Phil Mickelson has breast cancer. And then there it is A.Scott on the final round lurking -3 shots from the leaders. You will remember when he lits up the scoring board on Sunday afternoon but the +15000 won't be available anymore. Remember when M.Campbell won in 2005. How many thought he would win that year? A.Scott is my Aussie to win it all this year. I have done my due diligence and picked him through 72 different filters through my mathematical model.

adam scott is so downhill this year
not going to happen
im against him in 2 plays this weeks

[englishmike]

Thanks Shhhhh, duly noted and readjusted, took Mike Weir at 129-1 with Betfair. That must have been some sort of bad ear infection to keep someone like him out of a major.

[forloveofthegame]

here are my value plays..
robert allenby +4500 2 unit
boo weekley +10000 2 unit
tim clark +6000 2 unit
brian gay +8000 2 unit
kj choi +12500 3 unit
david toms +6500 3 unit

and i got 10 on ogilvy +1500

[englishmike]

Tiger Woods is now trading at 3.2 (2.2-1), his biggest price so far.

[pavyracer]

Will they ever start playing again? Bunkers looked like pools on ESPN.

[englishmike]

I thought that Paves and if I had to guess I'd say it's likely there's going to have to be a Monday finish.

Also, to get back on track some people will have to play 36 holes tommorow, or more likely, have holes left over to finish on Saturday morning and trying to make the cut....to then have to go straight back out and play round 3.

Just my opinion, but those yet to start are already at a disadvantage.

[pavyracer]

With that in mind Mike do you take into account fatigue in your day by day capping?

[englishmike]

You can't because you don't know it's going to occur but now it has I'll be having a seriously hard look at the two-ball-head-to-heads for the third round scheduled for Saturday. If I see a guy who had to play 6 or 7 holes in the morning playing a guy who's just playing 18 i'd be tempted to be all over the guy playing just 18 but the bookies would factor it in anyway, i'm sure. It's not so much fatigue as routine that gets fukked up, golfers don't like having to go to the range, warm up, play, eat, range again, play again, it's foreign to them and they don't like it, even when they're in a Tournament such as The Accenture Matchplay where the semis and final are over 36 holes in one day and they're aware of this from the start. the other thing is mental fatigue. Mental fatigue has fukked up far more golf bets than physical fatigue.

Update: Ian Poulter has just contradicted what I just said and he was pretty pissed. He said todays starters were not allowed to 'lift and place' their balls on fairways, meaning a lot of shots played today would have been with balls covered in mud. He went on to say, although players that haven't gone out yet might have to play extra holes they will shoot lower scores because they will have better conditions, so those that have played this tournament and their player is yet to start should be looking for some low scores tommorow. Also, the weather is bad for Saturday, maybe a washout.

[MrLuckyPants]

http://www.usopen.com/en_US/realtime/flash_np_.html?syn=none&ref=www.usopen.com/en_US/index.html&mode=po&db=false

Adam Scott -1 - lol

David Duval -2!

Weir -6!

Are we in the twilight zone?

[pavyracer]

You guys made fun of my Adam Scott pick and that I was burning my money. Adam Scott is lurking with the leaders.

[englishmike]

He's actually played very very well Paves....something he hasn't done for about four months but now he's there he's got as much chance as anyone.

[MrLuckyPants]

Yes Pavy you we're on Scott hehe, did you back him?

[englishmike]

First blood to Durito. Low round of the day is 64.

[durito]

just $250 limit, but nice anyway. thanks for the support

[englishmike]

I backed this dude after Kjeldson pulled out, unreal.

[englishmike]

10 Units invested.

Mike Weir 1 1/2 Unit Win (Betfair) T10

Ross Fisher 1/2 Unit Win @ 169-1 & 1 Unit Top 5 finish 21-1 (Betfair) 5th WIN

Retief Goosen 2 Units Win @ 47-1 & 2 Units Top 5 Finish 9-1 (Betfair) T16

Geoff Ogilvy 3 Units Win @ 20-1 (William Hill) T47

12 Unit profit, 61 Units profit last two tourneys.

[themajormt]

Nice work EM... Keep it up! Whats the next tourney you are working on?

[englishmike]

I'll have a look at The Travelers Chapionship next week but history shows tournaments after a major are a crap shoot, possibly won't make a play but if I do i'll post it.