LT's Fearless 2017 Pre-Thanksgiving New Year's Six Bowl Projections

funnyb25 · 11-20-17, 05:25 PM

BOL Lt

jjgold · 11-20-17, 05:25 PM

Tough call there

Chi_archie · 11-20-17, 05:27 PM

this guy ain't scurrred

#fearless

LT Profits · 11-20-17, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Tough call there

"Fearless"

LT Profits · 11-20-17, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

this guy ain't scurrred

#fearless

TheMoneyShot · 11-20-17, 06:38 PM

Ohio State has to beat Michigan in Ann Arbor by 17+ to have any hope.

LT Profits · 11-20-17, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

Ohio State has to beat Michigan in Ann Arbor by 17+ to have any hope.

That would help but in reality, winning the Big Ten Championship should be enough as long as Alabama wins out. Problem would be if Alabama loses, because Bama is already in so if Oklahoma wins out, Tide would knock out Big Ten, joining Oklahoma, Clemson/Miami winner and SEC Champ in semis.

Shute · 11-20-17, 07:14 PM

You da man LT!!

RM Logic · 11-20-17, 07:40 PM

Committee praying Clemson loses to either SC or Miami so they are either out or put in the #4 seed spot. They do not want a 3rd straight NC game with them and Bama. Ratings nightmare.

BigdaddyQH · 11-21-17, 01:58 PM

Ohio State is OUT. The committee will choose a one loss team over them. The committee will be reminded of just how bad they plyed in last year's playoff. That loss to what is an average Iowa team now qualifies as a "Bad beat".

Alabama is in, no matter what happens this week. Worse case scenario, they are a 1 loss team.

I do not see Oklahoma losing to either West Virginia (minus their starting QB) or TCU. OU will either be ranked 2nd or 3rd depending on who wins the ACC Title.

Wisconsin is in if they run the table. If not, things could really get a bit crazy. Georgia is in if it runs the table. They would be SEC Champs. That opens the door for two SEC teams to make it. If Clemson wins out, they are in, and Miami is a one loss team, who would get in over any other one loss team except Oklahoma, Alabama or Georgia.

I have no idea who goes where, but I would not be surprised to see two ACC teams make it.

LT Profits · 11-21-17, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Ohio State is OUT. The committee will choose a one loss team over them. The committee will be reminded of just how bad they plyed in last year's playoff. That loss to what is an average Iowa team now qualifies as a "Bad beat".

Alabama is in, no matter what happens this week. Worse case scenario, they are a 1 loss team.

I do not see Oklahoma losing to either West Virginia (minus their starting QB) or TCU. OU will either be ranked 2nd or 3rd depending on who wins the ACC Title.

Wisconsin is in if they run the table. If not, things could really get a bit crazy. Georgia is in if it runs the table. They would be SEC Champs. That opens the door for two SEC teams to make it. If Clemson wins out, they are in, and Miami is a one loss team, who would get in over any other one loss team except Oklahoma, Alabama or Georgia.

I have no idea who goes where, but I would not be surprised to see two ACC teams make it.

You keep saying that, but read what I wrote about these projections being based on my four semifinalists all winning out. In this scenario. who gets in over Ohio State?

lakerboy · 11-21-17, 02:08 PM

Ohio State is going to win the national championship

LT Profits · 11-21-17, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Ohio State is going to win the national championship

No shot in hell.

They would be my longest shot, I think my seedings are spot on in regards to order of odds to win.

lakerboy · 11-21-17, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

No shot in hell.

They would be my longest shot, I think my seedings are spot on in regards to order of odds to win.

Odds suggest otherwise

BigdaddyQH · 11-21-17, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

You keep saying that, but read what I wrote about these projections being based on my four semifinalists all winning out. In this scenario. who gets in over Ohio State?

Miami or Wisconsin. Last season, Ohio State got in without even playing in the CC game. That tells me that the record is much more important than who wins the CC game. Miami's overall difficulty of schedule is better than Ohio State's, and if their only loss is to the defending champion Clemson, Ohio State simply cannot match that. Not with a loss to an Iowa team that will have at least 5 losses on it's resume including a loss to Purdue. Besides, if Lakerboy picked Ohio State to win it all, there is no way that they even make it to the playoffs. He is one of the worst in here.

TheMoneyShot · 11-21-17, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

That loss to what is an average Iowa team now qualifies as a "Bad beat".

If the committee looks at this point.... Ohio State is a goner.

And let's face it... Iowa isn't even an average team... slightly below avg. And they stomped Ohio State.

LT Profits · 11-21-17, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Miami or Wisconsin. Last season, Ohio State got in without even playing in the CC game. That tells me that the record is much more important than who wins the CC game. Miami's overall difficulty of schedule is better than Ohio State's, and if their only loss is to the defending champion Clemson, Ohio State simply cannot match that. Not with a loss to an Iowa team that will have at least 5 losses on it's resume including a loss to Purdue. Besides, if Lakerboy picked Ohio State to win it all, there is no way that they even make it to the playoffs. He is one of the worst in here.

Wisconsin wouldn't get in because Ohio State would be the team that beat them for the Big Ten Championship. And Miami is on a very short leash because they simply lack the metrics of an undefeated team, so one loss knocks them out. Not to mention Ohio State would be around -6 over Miami on a neutral field, and the committee's goal would be to choose the "better" team.

LT Profits · 11-21-17, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

If the committee looks at this point.... Ohio State is a goner.

And let's face it... Iowa isn't even an average team... slightly below avg. And they stomped Ohio State.

Not as hurtful as many think because everyone besides Alabama has a bad loss.

JAKEPEAVY21 · 11-21-17, 03:24 PM

I think Ohio St is out as well.

TheMoneyShot · 11-21-17, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Not as hurtful as many think because everyone besides Alabama has a bad loss.

Look at the other 8 teams you listed.... they don't deserve the #4 spot? 2 of those 8 teams would destroy Ohio State one on one.

LT Profits · 11-21-17, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

I think Ohio St is out as well.

Again, if my final four wins out, who gets in ahead of them? I am not a fan of Buckeyes either and I honestly do not think they are one of four best teams in country, but I just don't see a one-loss team that would knock them out and they would be only two-loss team to own conference championship. Going purely on who is "better", I would rate both Georgia and Auburn ahead of them, but committee has to draw line somewhere and they would never allow three-loss team in (Auburn) and I doubt they would let two-loss non-champ in (Georgia). So seems to me choice would come down to Ohio State or Miami and as I have said many time, Canes are simply not as good as their record.

BigdaddyQH · 11-21-17, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Wisconsin wouldn't get in because Ohio State would be the team that beat them for the Big Ten Championship. And Miami is on a very short leash because they simply lack the metrics of an undefeated team, so one loss knocks them out. Not to mention Ohio State would be around -6 over Miami on a neutral field, and the committee's goal would be to choose the "better" team.

What is your love affair with Ohio State? They are NOT a top 4 team. Not even close. The Big 10 stinks. Look at what those losers did in last years New Years Day games. 0-3. Ohio State did not score a point. That is all there is to it. Ohio State plays one good non-con team and gets it's arse handed to them. And that was at home. Then they take an inexcusable pounding at Iowa. You cannot have it both ways like you are trying to do. Ohio State did not even play for the Big 10 Championship last year and got in because they only had one loss. THAT IS WHAT COUNTS. That is what got Ohio State in last season. Enough of this Ohio State Bull S**t. You Big 10 homers are sick.

LT Profits · 11-21-17, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

Look at the other 8 teams you listed.... they don't deserve the #4 spot? 2 of those 8 teams would destroy Ohio State one on one.

You probably mean Georgia and Auburn, if so, read Post #22. If you are talking about someone else, do tell.

LT Profits · 11-21-17, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

What is your love affair with Ohio State? They are NOT a top 4 team. Not even close. The Big 10 stinks. Look at what those losers did in last years New Years Day games. 0-3. Ohio State did not score a point. That is all there is to it. Ohio State plays one good non-con team and gets it's arse handed to them. And that was at home. Then they take an inexcusable pounding at Iowa. You cannot have it both ways like you are trying to do. Ohio State did not even play for the Big 10 Championship last year and got in because they only had one loss. THAT IS WHAT COUNTS. That is what got Ohio State in last season. Enough of this Ohio State Bull S**t. You Big 10 homers are sick.

You DO realize that Ohio State is still as TOP THREE Team on a lot of reliable power ratings. Alabama number one, then Clemson only about one point ahead of Ohio State for second. So if Vegas bookmakers set the final four, this would not even be a debate. I am not saying I agree with those rankings as I perseronally rate Buckeyes sixth or seventh, but it is what it is.

BigdaddyQH · 11-21-17, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Again, if my final four wins out, who gets in ahead of them? I am not a fan of Buckeyes either and I honestly do not think they are one of four best teams in country, but I just don't see a one-loss team that would knock them out and they would be only two-loss team to own conference championship. Going purely on who is "better", I would rate both Georgia and Auburn ahead of them, but committee has to draw line somewhere and they would never allow three-loss team in (Auburn) and I doubt they would let two-loss non-champ in (Georgia). So seems to me choice would come down to Ohio State or Miami and as I have said many time, Canes are simply not as good as their record.

Wrong. If USC defeats Stanford or Wazzu, they become a two loss team that is a conference champion and their schedule and losses are much tougher than Ohio State's. USC will most likely end up in the Fiesta Bowl so they can defeat another Big 10 team, most likely Ohio State, again. Also, I would not be talking records if I were you. Your's is not very good.

LT Profits · 11-21-17, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Wrong. If USC defeats Stanford or Wazzu, they become a two loss team that is a conference champion and their schedule and losses are much tougher than Ohio State's. USC will most likely end up in the Fiesta Bowl so they can defeat another Big 10 team, most likely Ohio State, again. Also, I would not be talking records if I were you. Your's is not very good.

Pac-12 does not belong in discussion this year. And your claim that USC played the tougher schedule is just wrong. You claim to know some sportsbook managers in Vegas, ask any of them where they rate Ohio State. And for the umpteenth time, I DISAGREE with Ohio State being power rated so high, but is what it is.

LT Profits · 11-21-17, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Also, I would not be talking records if I were you. Your's is not very good.

I have a winning record, +6.69 units. Where is your tracking thread?

badgerguy · 11-21-17, 04:04 PM

Fuk Ohio State

LT Profits · 11-22-17, 01:39 AM

THIS is quite telling:

Alabama	+120
Oklahoma	+535
Clemson	+600
Auburn	+875
Miami Florida	+875
Wisconsin	+1150
Georgia	+1550
Ohio State	+1550
TCU	+13500
USC	+13500
Notre Dame	+22500

Notice the severe drop from Ohio State to next group.

And if my scenario plays out, after the 3 obvious favorites, Ohio State would be the only team remaining among the upper tier without another loss.

TheMoneyShot · 11-22-17, 03:02 AM

After taking a solid look.... I'm going to say Ohio State has Zero Chance to be in the Top 4. A lot needs to happen for OHIO STATE to accomplish this... + the committee needs to agree. I don't believe they will.

And because LT called it.... if Ohio State somehow makes the Top 4.... I'll give you 1,000 betpoints LT...

I'm pretty sure they won't make it. Just not worthy enough. The first step... they need to blow out Michigan by 17+ to make the committee blink.

Eddy Munny · 11-22-17, 06:36 AM

I would rather see UCF in the dance over an Ohio State team that got curb stomped by Iowa and also loss handily at home to OKlahoma. Buckeyes don't deserve to be there and I don't see any scenario where the committee just gives them a pass for their severely tarnished resume.

LT Profits · 11-22-17, 06:52 AM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

After taking a solid look.... I'm going to say Ohio State has Zero Chance to be in the Top 4. A lot needs to happen for OHIO STATE to accomplish this... + the committee needs to agree. I don't believe they will.

And because LT called it.... if Ohio State somehow makes the Top 4.... I'll give you 1,000 betpoints LT...

I'm pretty sure they won't make it. Just not worthy enough. The first step... they need to blow out Michigan by 17+ to make the committee blink.

Not true at all as long as chalk holds form. Yes, Ohio State is currently #9, BUT 4 teams ahead of them would add a loss (Clemson/Miami, Wisconsin, Auburn, Georgia) leaving only Notre Dame, who is conveniently ranked right above Ohio State making for an easy leapfrog with a Big Ten title. Maybe that may sound like a lot on the surface, but fact that it requires all favorites winning helps it along.

LT Profits · 11-25-17, 07:24 PM

OK I now have Ohio State out due to having Alabama still in. I am also predicting Auburn beats Georgia next week, so with that in mind and pending Clemson result tonight:

Sugar: 1-Clemson vs. 4-Alabama
Rose: 2-Auburn vs. 3-Oklahoma

Cotton: Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame
Fiesta: USC vs. Penn State
Orange: Miami vs. Ohio State
Peach: Georgia vs. UCF

Fred The Hammer · 11-25-17, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

OK I now have Ohio State out due to having Alabama still in. I am also predicting Auburn beats Georgia next week, so with that in mind and pending Clemson result tonight:

Sugar: 1-Clemson vs. 4-Alabama
Rose: 2-Auburn vs. 3-Oklahoma

Cotton: Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame
Fiesta: USC vs. Penn State
Orange: Miami vs. Ohio State
Peach: Georgia vs. UCF

Well LT.....better go back to the drawing board

I expected Auburn to beat Bama with the way Bama looked vs Miss State. Aub took solid control in the 2nd half. Clemson looks too balanced and experienced for S Carolina...and Miami as well. OU will beat TCU again. That makes Clemson & Oklahoma 1-2

Auburn's star RB looks like he has a separated shoulder? I like Georgia in that one with the revenge factor. There's your 3. Then it comes down to Wisc/Ohio State. Wisc wins or Bama is back in at 4