Soderling?

[remmy358]

I know it's against a R Fed who's jonesing for his first french open, but still...this guy is on a mission. at over 3 to 1 odds is it worth a little $?

[SBR Lou]

Soderling has just played over his head, Federer hasn't even played his best and is in the finals. He has all the experience at this stage whereas Soderling has none, I don't think Fed will ever lose to someone not named Nadal in a French Open final. Keep in mind he's actually 28-0 in the last 4 years including this one when not playing Nadal at RG.

[remmy358]

i see what you are saying and i do not disagree with most of it. but the fact of the matter is that soderling is on a mission and he's played very well, and there's no sign of his stopping. all the pressure is on federer -- and while his career record is amazing -- of late, meaning the past few years -- he has choked under the pressure on more than a few occasions. it's not that i think that soderling will win, but it's all about value. i am debating the play.

[pavyracer]

Federer is too tired from back to back 5 sets in which he used everything to come back from behind. Soderling is young and better conditioned and will wear out old man Federer. This will be an embarassing loss for Federer in front of the French crowd who hates him.

[SBR Lou]

i see what you are saying and i do not disagree with most of it. but the fact of the matter is that soderling is on a mission and he's played very well, and there's no sign of his stopping. all the pressure is on federer -- and while his career record is amazing -- of late, meaning the past few years -- he has choked under the pressure on more than a few occasions. it's not that i think that soderling will win, but it's all about value. i am debating the play.

So going up 2 sets over Gonzalez, then allowing Gonzalez to take it to 5 sets where Soderling actually had to come back from a break down is not a sign of slowing down or playing poorly?

It doesn't matter if he's on a mission, same can be same for Fed so it cancels out, what it comes down to is who plays more mistake free tennis and who plays the big points well. I am betting on Federer to do just that.

[remmy358]

So going up 2 sets over Gonzalez, then allowing Gonzalez to take it to 5 sets where Soderling actually had to come back from a break down is not a sign of slowing down or playing poorly?

It doesn't matter if he's on a mission, same can be same for Fed so it cancels out, what it comes down to is who plays more mistake free tennis and who plays the big points well. I am betting on Federer to do just that.

i guarantee you that federer has lost more money for people over the past 3 yr's than he's won...again, i agree that federer is the clear favorite here, but i don't think that he should be a -400 favorite.

[TurkzZ]

Im going in small on sodderlin, from time to time big upsets occur, tomorrow could be one of them, like when greece won euro 2004, nobody gave them a chance even in the final!

[hoopster42]

Federer is too tired from back to back 5 sets in which he used everything to come back from behind. Soderling is young and better conditioned and will wear out old man Federer. This will be an embarassing loss for Federer in front of the French crowd who hates him.

wrong once again pavy! you are amazing! federer speaks fluent french (one of the 4 languages he speaks fluently) and at the trophy ceremony the last 3 yrs when he lost he always spoke in both english and french, and the crowd absolutely loves it. they clearly root for fed

2nd, you said in another thread a few days ago that federer sucks on clay or something to that effect, ummmmm, he is now 29-4 the last 5 yrs (05-09) at the french and 29-0 against everyone not named nadal

you also said the lakers play no defense but they dominated defensively against the nuggets the last 2 gms of the series to close them out in 6 and they dominated orlando in gm 1 winning by 25 pts

you are so blinded by your hatred of players and teams that you are making the most ridiculous statements that make it seem like you know absolutely nothing about sports

[Karayilan9]

Crazylou
Soderling has just played over his head, Federer hasn't even played his best and is in the finals. He has all the experience at this stage whereas Soderling has none, I don't think Fed will ever lose to someone not named Nadal in a French Open final. Keep in mind he's actually 28-0 in the last 4 years including this one when not playing Nadal at RG.

Fed has been playing his best, its just that he's not as good as he used to be when there was hardly any competition.

Soderling is doing great because he's understood that at this level its all psychological, tennis wise he's been playing above Feds level but most importantly he's keeping focused and not letting emotions get the better of him, the guys been like a rock and shown balls of steel.

Betting heavy favs in tennis is a path to financial ruin.

I've been betting against Fed all this tournament, set betting especially set 1 that his opponents would win. The odds have ranged from +400 to +1000 all I needed was one of them to hit but its hit in everygame except against Monfils.

There is no value in taking these players at those odds long-term because one loss will wipe out your earnings.

I'll be set betting against Fed aswell as well as taking Soderling for the game because that is were the value is. I'd rather put .5/1 units on dogs to win 5-20 units then 50 units on favs to win something stupid like 1 unit.

[hoopster42]

So going up 2 sets over Gonzalez, then allowing Gonzalez to take it to 5 sets where Soderling actually had to come back from a break down is not a sign of slowing down or playing poorly?

It doesn't matter if he's on a mission, same can be same for Fed so it cancels out, what it comes down to is who plays more mistake free tennis and who plays the big points well. I am betting on Federer to do just that.

fed simply makes many more mistakes than he used to, you have to admit that and the fact that he will be feeling tons of pressure tomorrow and soderling will play with nothing to lose. fed is chasing history. ask pete sampras how hard it was to win his 13th to tie then 14th to take the lead.

fed going 5 sets with 31 yr old haas and 5 sets with del potro who had never been past the 2nd round in paris is simply not acceptable for someone of fed's level, he is playing the best he possibly can which is not good enough to blow ppl away any more, but he's playing the best he can, soderling will be hell for him tomorrow

[SBR Lou]

Well, I've heard both sides, illustrated my position etc, all we can do now is wait to see if everyone is right about Federer. Seems to be the popular belief he will struggle to put away a player that has never been in the discussion or even close to the discussion of being a top player. I don't buy in, you can believe the cliches of 'nothing to lose' or Soderling is a machine etc, but the truth is he isn't a machine, his highest ranking has been #15 in the world and for good reason. BTW, #15 or #25 in ATP rankings (his current mark) is equivalent to #60 in the WTA- just to put that into perspective.

[EaglesPhan36]

If you're betting straight up, Soderling at +330 or whatever he is at your book is the smartest wager to me. Federer at -400 or more offers very little value in this spot. Soderling has beaten three of the Top 5-7 clay court players in succession in Nadal, Davydenko and Gonzalez. He's showing a great nerve which is what you need. There is ZERO pressure on this guy tomorrow. He's not supposed to be here while Federer has every bit of pressure in the world. This is Roger's chance for the career Slam. He won't have a better opportunity. And watching him in this tournament, he's certainly still susceptible to periods where he can't do anything right and like any player, that tends to put you into a funk that is hard to battle out of. As outlined, the comebacks against Haas and Del Potro show his resiliency, but also his weakness to be in that position. This isn't just a case where he had his one scare and then flipped the switch. This is 2009 Roger Federer. Still capable of being dominant, but more likely to give a capable opponent some opportunities.

I'm rooting for Roger to finally get this done, but my money would go on Soderling.

[SBR Lou]

The reason you know Soderling is a bad bet is because you could replace him with anyone in the tournament and people would have the same opinion. If anyone managed to blast Nadal off the court and advance his way into the finals everyone would say, oh, Roger doesn't have value, he's a different player, he struggled in this match, etc.

Yeah, pretty sure Soderling struggled to put away Gonzalez in semis blowing a 2 set lead and having to come back in the 5th. And as for his win over Davydenko, sure Davydenko is one of the best on clay but he's also wildly inconsistent and has a reputation as a choke artist.

If you're betting straight up, Soderling at +330 or whatever he is at your book is the smartest wager to me. Federer at -400 or more offers very little value in this spot. Soderling has beaten three of the Top 5-7 clay court players in succession in Nadal, Davydenko and Gonzalez. He's showing a great nerve which is what you need. There is ZERO pressure on this guy tomorrow. He's not supposed to be here while Federer has every bit of pressure in the world. This is Roger's chance for the career Slam. He won't have a better opportunity. And watching him in this tournament, he's certainly still susceptible to periods where he can't do anything right and like any player, that tends to put you into a funk that is hard to battle out of. As outlined, the comebacks against Haas and Del Potro show his resiliency, but also his weakness to be in that position. This isn't just a case where he had his one scare and then flipped the switch. This is 2009 Roger Federer. Still capable of being dominant, but more likely to give a capable opponent some opportunities.

I'm rooting for Roger to finally get this done, but my money would go on Soderling.

[hoopster42]

Well, I've heard both sides, illustrated my position etc, all we can do now is wait to see if everyone is right about Federer. Seems to be the popular belief he will struggle to put away a player that has never been in the discussion or even close to the discussion of being a top player. I don't buy in, you can believe the cliches of 'nothing to lose' or Soderling is a machine etc, but the truth is he isn't a machine, his highest ranking has been #15 in the world and for good reason. BTW, #15 or #25 in ATP rankings (his current mark) is equivalent to #60 in the WTA- just to put that into perspective.

CrazyL, do you remember in early august last yr seemingly everyone who talks tennis on this site including you were all ready to bury fed and poor dirt on him when he was struggling in the masters series leading up to the us open? do you remember that? do you remember that i was basically a lone crusader defending federer? its because i know his gm and his tendencies so well. yes, i remember you picked him before the us open to win it and i give you credit for that, but just like you were underrating what ability he has left you are now overrating it.

i am very realistic when it comes to fed, and now, finally, i can begin to really see the decline. he was mentally beaten when he began to cry in australia after the nadal match. on this clay surface, he used to cruise in a little better until he played nadal, but some of the stuff against haas and del potro should show us he is ready to be had............soderling is gona be hell tomorrow, i strongly strongly recommedn that you hedge a bit just in case because soderling is a much livelier dog than you are giving him credit for, so much pressure on fed tomorrow and none on soderling who is playing unreal

he reminds of verdasco at the australian 09 who came out of nowhere seemingly and played better than everyone except nadal

[EaglesPhan36]

He dominated and dismantled Davydenko. That wasn't a choke Lou. The Gonzalez match, yeah he blew a 2 set lead, but what's different than him doing that and still winning vs. how Roger has had to do that this tournament? It's not except it's not your Bromance Fed who mounted the comeback.


I was skeptical on Soderling and what he would do after the Nadal match, but you can't say this guy doesn't have a legit shot at a superb price after what he's done. And yeah, Fed could come out and dismantle the guy like he did with Monfils. But when more than half his matches at RG this time have been a battle, I'd rather take a one unit shot to win three times that than to pay four-plus units to win one. As with the women's final today, anything can happen.

[SBR Lou]

He dominated and dismantled Davydenko. That wasn't a choke Lou.

Really, well when a top 5 player on clay lets a world #25 who is not even known for his clay courting "dominate and dismantle him", I consider it a choke.

[SBR Lou]

All I know is I will be 2/4 for picking the Slam winners pre-tourney.

CrazyL, do you remember in early august last yr seemingly everyone who talks tennis on this site including you were all ready to bury fed and poor dirt on him when he was struggling in the masters series leading up to the us open? do you remember that? do you remember that i was basically a lone crusader defending federer? its because i know his gm and his tendencies so well. yes, i remember you picked him before the us open to win it and i give you credit for that, but just like you were underrating what ability he has left you are now overrating it.

i am very realistic when it comes to fed, and now, finally, i can begin to really see the decline. he was mentally beaten when he began to cry in australia after the nadal match. on this clay surface, he used to cruise in a little better until he played nadal, but some of the stuff against haas and del potro should show us he is ready to be had............soderling is gona be hell tomorrow, i strongly strongly recommedn that you hedge a bit just in case because soderling is a much livelier dog than you are giving him credit for, so much pressure on fed tomorrow and none on soderling who is playing unreal

he reminds of verdasco at the australian 09 who came out of nowhere seemingly and played better than everyone except nadal

[EaglesPhan36]

Really, well when a top 5 player on clay lets a world #25 who is not even known for his clay courting "dominate and dismantle him", I consider it a choke.

Wow. So Nadal choked too, no credit for Soderling playing well? C'mon man.

[Tchocky]

I think Robin has a chance of winning the 1st set and covering the 6 game spread but I don't see him winning. The crowd will be clearly on Roger's side.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Fed has had a lot of off periods this tournament, so the over or Fed 3-1 are maybe good bets.

If Soderling is going to win, it seems to me really unlikely it's in 5 - Fed is physically far superior and has the big match experience. You can take Sod 3-0 and 3-1, for a combined +600.

[hoopster42]

I think Robin has a chance of winning the 1st set and covering the 6 game spread but I don't see him winning. The crowd will be clearly on Roger's side.

the crowd was rooting for all the frenchies and one by one they went down in flames, tsonga crushed, monfils crushed, simone, etc etc

the crowd does not matter much in one on one sporting events

[HeeeHAWWWW]

They were all playing vastly superior opponents though. Tsonga beat Monaco, his best ever clay results, partly as a result of the inspiration drawn from the crowd. Same with his only ever masters win, last year in Paris. Monfils also draws from the crowd - he had no form at all coming into Roland Garros, but as usual gets much better results here.

There are plenty others who perform far better in front of an involved crowd - eg Stepanek.

[MartinBlank]

i see what you are saying and i do not disagree with most of it. but the fact of the matter is that soderling is on a mission and he's played very well, and there's no sign of his stopping. all the pressure is on federer -- and while his career record is amazing -- of late, meaning the past few years -- he has choked under the pressure on more than a few occasions. it's not that i think that soderling will win, but it's all about value. i am debating the play.

I don't get it. Where did Fed "choke"? He has made 20 consecutive grand slam semi's, he has only lost to Nadal in France, played an amazing Wimbledon final, and won the US Open.

Tennis has been full of guys who have hit a hot streak over a week, and then meltdown in their first grand slam final.

This just off the top of my head, but I can think of guys like Miloslav Mecir, Cedric Pioline, Greg Rusedski, Martin Verkerk, Mariano Puerto, Andrei Medvedev.....all of those guys won a big match, made a GS final, and then basically disappeared.

How many on this forum can name the guy Nadal beat in 05? It was Puerto. I think Soderling is going to lose badly tomorrow.

[CaneDawg]

fed rolls

no value in a losing ticket...remember that

[HeeeHAWWWW]

no value in a losing ticket...remember that

That really doesn't make any sense at all :-)

[SBR Lou]

HeeHAWWWW is one of the sharpest tennis handicapping evaluators at SBRforum, and his opinion should be respected and given the utmost consideration.

Now, really what the finals comes down to is not any of the tired old cliches which have been regurgitated this weekend- it's not pressure nor the stage, it isn't mental efficiency, what it amounts to more than anything else is tempo, pace, and which player can dictate the flow of the match. Federer in my mind has a greater chance at playing his style of tennis and forcing Soderling out of his comfort zone. Soderling is a raw power kind of guy, and on this surface will only carry you for so long, his inferiority on the return will allow Federer to take more chances and that ultimately will be the difference in the match.

[valdosta]

Federer is too tired from back to back 5 sets in which he used everything to come back from behind. Soderling is young and better conditioned and will wear out old man Federer. This will be an embarassing loss for Federer in front of the French crowd who hates him.

Federer only played 3 sets against Monfils and then 5 against Del potro. Not back to back 5 setters. Federer really should beat Soderling.

[bettilimbroke999]

Federer only played 2 sets against Monfils and then 5 against Del potro. Not back to back 5 setters. Federer really should beat Soderling.

Lets hope he played 3 against Monfils or else Monfils got cheated but I completely agree that Fed is too much for Soderling, this is the absolute missing piece to won of the greatest careers in tennis ever, "old man" Federer (even though he's only 27) is not going to let Soderling stand in his way, he is 9-0 against Soderling lifetime and in those 9 matches has lost a total of 1 set to Soderling, do you really think in the biggest tourney of his career that Fed is going to lose 3 sets to him? To be quite honest I think it was a blessing that collapsing Soderling was able to win the 5th set to hold on versus Gonzalez, I would've put the odds much lower of Federer winning were the finals against Gonzalez.

Remember one thing above all else, this is the 5th French Open where no one not named Nadal has beaten Federer that's a record of 28-0, does +330 Soderling really have value here, very doubtful

[valdosta]

A typo obviously. Regardless my point was he played the minnimum amount of sets against Monfils. In all honesty this clay is playing fast enough that even some of the 5 setters are going by relatively quick compared to the 5 hours of the past. Both guys got a day off which is probably better for Soderling considering that he was getting blisters. I'd be pretty shocked if Federer lost this match although Soderling may push him a little more than he normally does.

[shhhhh22]

I think this match will be alot closer than expected... I'm putting a Unit on Soderling to win 3-2. and a Unit of Federer to win 3-2.

This thing is gonna go the distance.

[bettilimbroke999]

If it goes the distance it will be a win for Federer, one thing that's highlighted in every match he's played recently is that the longer the match goes the more likely Fed will takeover, in all honesty if this was a best of 3 match I would be much more incline to give Soderling a chance, the fact is it's much easier to win the 1st set then hold on and give everything you have and take a tiebreak then it is to win the 1st set, win the 2nd set and still have energy to beat Fed the 3rd set, he lost first two sets to Haas, was down 2-1 to del Potro but what the scoreboard didn't reveal until later was that his opponents had given everything they had and were out of gas while Roger had plenty in reserve

If Soderling wins it will in all likelihood be a 3-0 win, he will have to win 1st set and 2nd set one or both in a tiebreak and still have enough energy to defeat Roger a 3rd set, if this match goes to 4 sets and passes that key 2 hour mark Roger will takeover as he did against Haas and del Potro

[LT Profits]

fed rolls

no value in a losing ticket...remember that

100% Wrong!

Playing value is the ONLY way to win in the long run, provided you are actually making +EV bets and not betting hopeless longshots.

In this case, I'd expect Federer to win this matchup at the current time in the current form of these players 75% of the time. That would make the fair odds on Soderling +300, so I made a play on him myself at +330.

Is this more likely to be a losing ticket if played one time - YES
Is this expected to be a profitable ticket if played 100 times - also YES and the latter is more important.

And that is the end of our LONG TERM lesson for today.

[fearless]

100% Wrong!

Playing value is the ONLY way to win in the long run, provided you are actually making +EV bets and not betting hopeless longshots.

In this case, I'd expect Federer to win this matchup at the current time in the current form of these players 75% of the time. That would make the fair odds on Soderling +300, so I made a play on him myself at +330.

Is this more likely to be a losing ticket if played one time - YES
Is this expected to be a profitable ticket if played 100 times - also YES and the latter is more important.

And that is the end of our LONG TERM lesson for today.

But Fed is 9-0 career against Soderling. How can you expect Fed to suddenly start losing 1 out of 4 to him from here on out?

[The General]

I just want to see Federer win for history. He's been a great sport and a good player for Tennis. I think he is a professional in all aspects. He seems to be a real good person. I usually root for underdogs, but not here. On this stage though, I don't think either player winning will be a shock. Soderling has played great this tourney and he may be best today. Good luck to everyone on your wagers.

[LT Profits]

That is why I said "in their current form". Soderling is playing out of his mind right now and I do not think it is a total fluke. Also, a lot of that 9-0 came a few years ago when Fed was much better than he is now.

That said, even with that going for him, the fact that I still give Soderling just a 25% chance is still a testament to Federer's greatness.