The Official 2017 CFL Thread

**KVB** · 09-30-17, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

Here are the plays I like: Toronto -3.0 Edmonton -3.0

That first game is tough to call, similar to yesterday's first game, but with a tighter line and this time I won't bite on the -2.5.

Edmonton figures to do very well today. I think the Edmonton moneyline is a good bet, as well as a the spread. The line is moving too.

**KVB** · 09-30-17, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...The sharp forecast has Winnipeg winning with 40 or more points to Edmonton’s 27 or 28 points.

The stacking forecast has Winnipeg winning with 36 or 37 points to Edmonton’s 20 or 22 points.

The public gauge says Winnipeg wins 35-33.

As it stands I doubt the sharp forecast is correct against the spread in both games tomorrow. The first game is very close, but the second game appears to be very far off the market. Then again, so does the stacking forecast. Even the public gauge is in agreement with the upset moneyline of Winnipeg.

Winnipeg could be in trouble tomorrow...

There is a lot of agreement on Winnipeg that doesn’t add up too well with other market metrics. This is the second game of the day and there may be a possible reaction play on the Total.

Because of the movement in the line, I have already countered the sharp forecast moneyline prediction with Edmonton Eskimos -160 and -164 over Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

Good Luck

**KVB** · 09-30-17, 04:14 PM

In considering the spread I think the -3.5 is at potential risk and have picked up another moneyline point with Edmonton Eskimos -165 over Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

Regardless of how the first game today is played and unfolds, I just don’t think Winnipeg gets it this time and have metrics showing such. I passed on winning trades a few times this season in the face these same metrics. I’ve correctly warned about many teams without a bold trade for the thread, and this time I am warning of the Winnipeg moneyline.

Good Luck.

**Coolcanuck79** · 09-30-17, 04:14 PM

I going to roll with the Under 51 -110 in the Argos game and Winnipeg +3.5 -110 in the late game.

**KVB** · 09-30-17, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by Coolcanuck79

I going to roll with the Under 51 -110 in the Argos game and Winnipeg +3.5 -110 in the late game.

While you are agreeing with my sharp forecast here on both plays, I countered the Total with Over and like Edmonton in the next game, but -3.5 might be too much so I'm sitting with the Edmonton moneyline.

We can't both with the first Total, but we can both win game two.

**Coolcanuck79** · 09-30-17, 04:41 PM

KVB, I totally agree with your position on the EDM ML. I have a feeling it is closer than the Bombers keep it within a fg. Let's both cash that one!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-30-17, 07:02 PM

Any update on EDM injuries? I know line moved on Edm.

Did EDM get any key players back?

**KVB** · 09-30-17, 07:28 PM

Edmonton has had pretty good support since the line opened. Not much back for Edmonton that I see making a difference, they have plenty of guys on the 6 game injured list.

A top rushing offense against one of the worst rushing defenses versus the top passing offense against one of the worst passing defenses.

There could be some points tonight, or maybe not...lol, things aren't always what they seem. I think Winnipeg runs into trouble tonight.

I also think Toronto could come back to win the first game.

**Hngkng** · 09-30-17, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Any update on EDM injuries? I know line moved on Edm.

Did EDM get any key players back?

Yes

**Hngkng** · 09-30-17, 08:16 PM

What do you guys think about the over in the Edmonton game?

I've had a decent weekend so far, so going a bit risky to end off the CFL week.

Edmonton ML+ Over 58 Parlay

**KVB** · 09-30-17, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

Yes

Do you think the player's make that much of a difference? I think Edmonton was going to get the pressure anyway and that the player's come out a bit in the wash at this point.

Toronto making a push as game two gets ready for kickoff, just to keep the bettors on their toes. Hamilton will probably hang on at this point..

I think it's Over or no play in game two.

**Hngkng** · 09-30-17, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Do you think the player's make that much of a difference? I think Edmonton was going to get the pressure anyway and that the player's come out a bit in the wash at this point.

Toronto making a push as game two gets ready for kickoff, just to keep the bettors on their toes. Hamilton will probably hang on at this point..

I think it's Over or no play in game two.

Yes I do, remember they are off a bye too.

**KVB** · 09-30-17, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

Yes I do, remember they are off a bye too.

I didn't so much mean on the field as much as whether they made a difference in the line. The books knew about the bye and players when the line was released, I think it was going to move anyway.

**KVB** · 09-30-17, 08:51 PM

I am not surprised to see a tie game in game one as game two kicks off tonight.

If Hamilton wins, the sharp forecast will have 2 losses against the moneyline, something that only happened once in week 12.

Betting Edmonton to win would be looking for a 3rd moneyline loss for the sharp forecast. In week 12, Edmonton was in that situation and had to beat Calgary to make it a third moneyline loss. Calgary won by only 3 and we saw the sharp forecast fail 3 times against the spread and twice against the moneyline in the worst week for the sharp forecast all season.

Here we are again with Edmonton, only this time they are favored. One of the reasons the moneyline in the first game is a tough issue to settle is that there is no spread bet predicted by the sharp forecast.

The forecast is already 2-0 against the spread with Winnipeg predicted.

To offset the loss of Winnipeg, if indeed it's a Winnipeg loss, I think Toronto may steal the moneyline in the first game, saving the sharp forecast again.

**KVB** · 09-30-17, 09:02 PM

I picked up Edmonton Eskimos -145 LIVE over Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

Good Luck.

**KVB** · 09-30-17, 09:14 PM

I tried to get Edmonton -135 but couldn't pick it up.

**Hngkng** · 09-30-17, 09:33 PM

This is pure trash, 4 missed FGs already.

**KVB** · 09-30-17, 10:26 PM

I picked up Edmonton Eskimos -135 LIVE over Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

Good Luck.

**Hngkng** · 09-30-17, 11:07 PM

Let's see if Edmonton can complete the comeback.

**KVB** · 09-30-17, 11:08 PM

I was trying to get Edmonton live at better the +200 but couldn't get in anywhere.

**KVB** · 09-30-17, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Well, there were two games today with the first game bringing the Underdog and Under while the second game brought the favorite and Over, a perfect settlement again. In the first half of the season settlements like this with the spread never occurred when two games were played consecutively. During the second half of the season, it has occurred every time, with one game 2 pushing. We are starting to see the give and take of the natural give and take...

The long term sharp forecast was 3-0 against the spread and 3-1 against the moneyline this week, with the moneyline loss coming in the first game, where the forecast also called a tie.

Further, we saw settlement again today, like yesterday, but this time it was the favorite and Over followed by the underdog and Under.

This natural tendency of the market is showing itself in full force for this second half of the season.

At the same time, metrics showing short term market fluctuations and leading to bold plays countering the forecast are continuing to fail.

**Hngkng** · 09-30-17, 11:37 PM

Dang that pick sick in the end.

Oh well.

**KVB** · 10-01-17, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by KVB

...I’m still not sure what level of risk I want to take for bold plays in this thread. Right now it’s the same as before, save a few early season risks. I can still remember BC killing us early season with aggressive trades and only getting it back because of the corner the market was backed into on a winning Total play.

That multiple entry point trading on a single issue can get volatile….lol. I think the analysis could go the whole season without a bold play, just looking at the forecast, but I think the trading analysis is helpful for any bettor willing to read through it...

Had I held off of the bold short term trading plays in this thread, I would look like a genius right now as the sharp forecast has done nothing but win all season long while the bold plays have not done nearly so well.

I've always said that those who just tail would do fine with the sharp forecast by itself, and that the bold plays have more risk.

This year, that's proving to be very true.

**Hngkng** · 10-06-17, 04:25 PM

Hamilton +12.0 today

**KVB** · 10-06-17, 06:06 PM

The sharp forecast has Winnipeg winning with 27 or 28 points to Hamilton’s 23 points.

The stacking forecast says Winnipeg wins with 36 points to Hamilton’s 19 or 20 points. Basic unsophisticated averaging and use of medians gives Winnipeg 40 or more points and Hamilton points in the low to mid 20’s in 60 or more point games. The public gauge has Winnipeg winning 40-23.

The line opened between the sharp forecast and the other numbers with Winnipeg -14.5 and has moved toward the sharp forecast. The total opened between the sharp forecast and the public gauge and has also moved toward the forecast. The stacking forecast is essentially sidelined on the Total.

The books have done an excellent job of splitting the money here and in terms of the spread there is small indication to counter the forecast. The indication is not enough for a bold play on Winnipeg but it’s very possible that Winnipeg gets the blowout tonight.

This is the first game of the week and it is definitely set up in a spot to sell some Hamilton money not only from forecast using decision makers, but also those predicting certain types of market swings.

Despite seeing some money steered, I have to pass tonight on trading the spread and it will be interesting to see how the game plays out. We could once again be looking at a phase where the market may slide in terms of the sharp forecast.

As we enter week 5 of the NFL, this may make sense. Many sharp decision makers are jumping into the markets and we should see some overflow. The line movement in this first game is a hint to that type of money.

The Total is also well split. The sharp forecast predicts an Under and that is what we will likely see when it comes to the probabilities. There is nothing here to counter the sharp forecast and I still am not pressing sharp forecast total predictions with bold trades.

When it comes to the flow of money, this first game is best watched and not gambled upon by trading; money is just too well split.

**KVB** · 10-06-17, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by Hngkng

Hamilton +12.0 today

Good Luck HngKng, the sharp forecast has it as a 4 or 5 point game.

**KVB** · 10-06-17, 06:25 PM

Quick second half of the season stat. Since week 11...

The sharp forecast is 13-5-1 against the spread with 3 of those losses coming in week 12.

The sharp forecast is 14-5 against the monelyline. The losses include 3 upset predictions and two favorite predictions of -3 and -12.

The sharp forecast is 8-11 against the Totals with weeks 12 and 15 having 3 losses each.

**KVB** · 10-06-17, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by KVB

The sharp forecast has Winnipeg winning with 27 or 28 points to Hamilton’s 23 points...

This is the first game of the week and it is definitely set up in a spot to sell some Hamilton money not only from forecast using decision makers, but also those predicting certain types of market swings.

Despite seeing some money steered...

The market is starting to reveal more pressure on Hamilton.

I'm seeing an 11 out there and to think out loud, instinct says to counter the pressure with Winnipeg. But we don't trade with instinct in this thread.

**KVB** · 10-06-17, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...The sharp forecast predicts an Under and that is what we will likely see when it comes to the probabilities. There is nothing here to counter the sharp forecast and I still am not pressing sharp forecast total predictions with bold trades...

The Total has pressed through 57 also moving towards the forecast.

So both the line and Total are moving toward the forecast, for the short term, the chances of this being both the underdog against the spread and the Under in this first game are not very good.

I made a Betpoints parlay with Winnipeg -12 and Under 57.

After all, Betpoints are good for Bitcoin now.

**Booya711** · 10-06-17, 07:09 PM

Has anyone heard from jay?????

**Kiddpokerr** · 10-06-17, 07:10 PM

Ur losing it bro...

**KVB** · 10-06-17, 07:15 PM

Pokerr, Hamilton not a bad bet, I'm just not pressing it in this thread. It's too soon this week to make a trading decision.

**Coolcanuck79** · 10-06-17, 07:18 PM

I'm taking the under 57.

**Kiddpokerr** · 10-06-17, 07:23 PM

Kvb, thats what i get, i wont go against u, gl on the spread, will be rooting for u big time ...

Ps. Waz about spending around 400 on Ham...

**KVB** · 10-06-17, 07:51 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...So both the line and Total are moving toward the forecast, for the short term, the chances of this being both the underdog against the spread and the Under in this first game are not very good.

I made a Betpoints parlay with Winnipeg -12 and Under 57...

The game started showing the Underdog and the Over.

At this point I doubt both paces hold and think one will flip.