The Official 2017 CFL Thread

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Calgary winning with 33 points to Montreal’s 3 points.

The stacking forecast says Calgary wins with 39 points to Montreal’s 8 points. Less sophisticated methods all give Calgary at least 30 points and Montreal about 10 points. The public gauge has Calgary winning 33-7.

Just when we thought Calgary couldn’t be put in any more, different, situations to take down, they come in against Montreal and bring the largest line of the year. We’ve seen signs, including the second half of Calgary’s last game, and the full game push, showing that the Calgary success may falter. I doubt Montreal will outright beat Calgary tonight, but they most certainly could cover the spread.

Every number is in overwhelming agreement with Calgary and there is little wonder why the line is so high.

In terms of the Total, every number is lower than the line and there is some pressure on the Over which could continue as we see a lower score in the first game. Over all, this money is pretty split but one should beware of those numbers. The contrarian in me sees on Over in this game but we still have time to decide.

I think we have less time to decide on the spread as I expect the line to move and I went ahead with a bold trade countering the sharp forecast with Montreal Alouettes +17 (-105) over Calgary Stampeders. Even if the underdog is showing in the first game, I wouldn’t expect more than slight price changing pressure to the upside, with potential to fall to 16.5.

If this play fails, then each team is who we think they are…lol.

Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, 97yd TD return. Will that change the tide?

[Hngkng]

Wow, 97yd TD return. Will that change the tide?

3 point game now.

[KVB]

...Has far as how they bring it, it’s the first game tonight and the second game starts well before the first should finish. Look for there to ambiguity regarding the spread in game one as game two kicks off. After the kickoff, look for game one to show its cards...

...I think Ottawa could take the early lead and Saskatchewan could push the spread late here.

Imagine that, minutes before the game 2 kick off Saskatchewan has the ball with a TD to go to cover, despite being dominated all game.

[KVB]

Well, there we go.

It's a tie game in game one while game two comes off the board to kick off.

It's not what they bring...

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, 97yd TD return. Will that change the tide?

Apparently, it did. CFL such a different animal. Return-game is huge in CFL, b/c of the wide-field.

Kicking game + returns. We'll see how end-game plays out here. Point-spread in jeopardy.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

FYI, if u read btw the lines...I think Manziel will be in Hamilton training camp NEXT season.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OTT offense really dried up in 2nd half. Can they get in position to shoot for a single?

[KVB]

...Has far as how they bring it, it’s the first game tonight and the second game starts well before the first should finish. Look for there to ambiguity regarding the spread in game one as game two kicks off. After the kickoff, look for game one to show its cards...

Once game two kicked off, the final point was scored in game one.

Instead of coming back for the push, Saskatchewan just took the moneyline.

With the underdog covering the whole game, we saw a little pressure on Calgary, but again enough to adjust prices.

A little less pressure on Montreal, let's see if equates to covering the spread.

[Hngkng]

Man that loss sucked, I am sure with the way things went, if McDuffy got the ball out, the Redblacks would have gone 2 and out, and give the Riders perfect field position for a FG to at least push.

[KVB]

I picked up Montreal Alouettes +17.5 (-109) LIVE over Calgary Stampeders, despite the fact that Montreal went ahead 1-0.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Man that loss sucked, I am sure with the way things went, if McDuffy got the ball out, the Redblacks would have gone 2 and out, and give the Riders perfect field position for a FG to at least push.

Yeah, a tough spread loss. I should have been talking in terms of Ottawa moneyline failing earlier with the comeback, not just the spread or push.

There was definitely good live opportunity on the moneyline but I didn't pick any of it up.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Lindley must suck pretty bad.

Q: How big of an adjustment do u think it is to go from NFL rules to CFL rules?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I picked up Montreal Alouettes +17.5 (-109) LIVE over Calgary Stampeders, despite the fact that Montreal went ahead 1-0.

Good Luck.

How many people know that u can score 1pt on a kickoff?

In theory, team can rally from 9-pt deficit on one score. 6 + 2 +1 = 9.

[KVB]

Yeah, the rouge for 1 point can come out of nowhere.

But let's face it, the Ottawa player let the ball bounce then couldn't get out of the endzone. Seriously, in a tie game inside the 3 minute warning you give up a single as the final scoring play of the game.

Weak and down right unprofessional.

[KVB]

Lindley must suck pretty bad.

Q: How big of an adjustment do u think it is to go from NFL rules to CFL rules?

I think the biggest adjustment is the field size and getting some of the passes outside to the sideline.

[Hngkng]

Lindley must suck pretty bad.

Q: How big of an adjustment do u think it is to go from NFL rules to CFL rules?

Honestly it is a bigger adjustment than one would think.

Most people say bigger field, 12 men on the field. But really it is a completely different game than the NFL.

We have seen in the past a lot of NFL vets come in, and not work out.

In fact if you look at the league, basically all the starters in the CFL have not even started a game for an NFL regular season game. It usually takes a few years of backing up before a QB can get with the game.

I feel bad for Lindley, went from 3rd string doing scout team, and short yardage sneaks to a starter in a span of 2 weeks.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I agree, Hong Kong:

* Multiple WR in motion (fwd to line). Crazy, would be insane if legal in NFL.

* 3/out. Need to convert in two downs, or face a 3rd down. 5+ yards necessary per play. In NFL, the play-calling is much more conservative. In CFL, have to keep working the ball down field.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

FG, Montreal. How much do u think "no Messam" is hurting Calgary?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Willy 5/6 but only for 28yds.

[Hngkng]

FG, Montreal. How much do u think "no Messam" is hurting Calgary?

Not vs Montreal.

[Hngkng]

Willy 5/6 but only for 28yds.

He is the king of check down passes

[KVB]

I agree, Hong Kong:

* Multiple WR in motion (fwd to line). Crazy, would be insane if legal in NFL.

* 3/out. Need to convert in two downs, or face a 3rd down. 5+ yards necessary per play. In NFL, the play-calling is much more conservative. In CFL, have to keep working the ball down field.

I think these are coaches issues more than QB issues. Whether there's a head start running or not, the player still starts the play at the line of scrimmage. It's harder on the defense, but the QB still just has to put the ball where it needs to be. With only two downs, it's a coaches issue.

Not many try to adjust from NFL to CFL, like HngKng said, but some do come from college.

It's fast league like the NFL and not many come out of college and start in the NFL either, unless they have to start.

Both leagues take adjusting, but I compare CFL and it's pace to more like Arena league football.

I think the size of the field is the biggest issue, a QB needs time to get the ball out with more distance and the receiver head start helps with that but there is nowhere else to get that kind of field exposure.

[Hngkng]

By the way, you guys all aware Trent Richardson signed with the Riders?
He went back to Florida today for personal issues. But he could get into the game next week @ Toronto.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Calgary rolling, in good shape to cover. Two questions:

1) What Probability do u give to Calgary of winning the Grey Cup?

2) If Calgary DOESN'T win GCup...what other team is most likely to win it?

[Hngkng]

Calgary rolling, in good shape to cover. Two questions:

1) What Probability do u give to Calgary of winning the Grey Cup?

2) If Calgary DOESN'T win GCup...what other team is most likely to win it?

That was said last year. But Calgary ended up losing to an 8-10 Ottawa team.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

That was said last year. But Calgary ended up losing to an 8-10 Ottawa team.

So what? I don't live in the past. U saying that u like Ottawa?

[Hngkng]

So what? I don't live in the past. U saying that u like Ottawa?

As of this year? Hell no.

What I was saying is in a 1 game matchup vs Calgary in the grey cup anything is possible. Plus Calgary has a history of choking in playoff games

Now that being said, the recent trend is Calgary wins every second year, so this would be their year!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Calgary is one awesome team. I guess it was a circled-game. Gettin their revenge in big way.

[Hngkng]

Right now its basically Calgary in a class of their own. 7 other teams. Then Montreal.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nice answer. Maybe they win, maybe not.

[KVB]

We really need to see the last couple of weeks but my metrics, at this point, indicate that Calgary makes an exit in post season, which could include a loss in the Grey Cup. But, as it was already said, that happened last year. If Calgary rolls to finals, I'd say watch out this time. It’s possible they never cover a spread in the playoffs as they go on to win, but we still have a few games before we get there.

I have tests I can run, believe it or not, to try and assess a team’s chances, but it's difficult to generate a futures number without fudging. Creating a future line with ratings might reveal some value against what's offered, but it won't give us the winner...lol. Calgary being favored like they are screws it up as well as there is a “little value” in everyone else. This situation is a Tiger Woods like effect and it often leads to the favorite getting the win.

I don't know who could get there yet, it's best to take the rotation as it comes. In the end it depends on the market at the time.

I feel like Edmonton always has the ability to become very dangerous. They have a style that can suddenly shut teams down. There are injuries, but that doesn't usually matter too much.

One thing for sure, Calgary has been paying the bettors and has come through when asked by the market leading, dynamic sharp forecast.

They are getting it done for sure, championship style. The only problem is that this isn't the playoffs. They've clinched, and may cruise for a couple of weeks.

The sharp forecast, which looks to go 2-0 against the spread so far this week, has done well above its expectation and I would expect another small correction down the stretch. I would expect Calgary to be a part of that regression.

One prediction I will make is to look for sharp forecast to lose possibly every game against the spread in the final week of the regular season.

[KVB]

Well, there were two games today with the first game bringing the Underdog and Under while the second game brought the favorite and Over, a perfect settlement again. In the first half of the season settlements like this with the spread never occurred when two games were played consecutively. During the second half of the season, it has occurred every time, with one game 2 pushing. We are starting to see the give and take of the natural give and take.

Since going 1-3 against the spread in week 12, the sharp forecast has gone 8-1-1 against the spread with two games tomorrow. Countering the forecast with bold plays continues to be costly, particularly with Calgary.

Here are the forecasts for Saturday:

The sharp forecast says Toronto wins with 24 points to Hamilton’s 20 or 22 points.
The stacking forecast says Toronto wins with 31 points to Hamilton’s 17 points.
The public gauge says Toronto wins 27-25.

The sharp forecast has Winnipeg winning with 40 or more points to Edmonton’s 27 or 28 points.
The stacking forecast has Winnipeg winning with 36 or 37 points to Edmonton’s 20 or 22 points.
The public gauge says Winnipeg wins 35-33.

As it stands I doubt the sharp forecast is correct against the spread in both games tomorrow. The first game is very close, but the second game appears to be very far off the market. Then again, so does the stacking forecast. Even the public gauge is in agreement with the upset moneyline of Winnipeg.

Winnipeg could be in trouble tomorrow.

[Hngkng]

Here are the plays I like: Toronto -3.0 Edmonton -3.0

[KVB]

...The sharp forecast says Toronto wins with 24 points to Hamilton’s 20 or 22 points.

The stacking forecast says Toronto wins with 31 points to Hamilton’s 17 points.

The public gauge says Toronto wins 27-25...

This line opened with Toronto -3 and has pressured downward slightly as the day goes on. We saw a perfect settlement yesterday and HngKng could be right that we see two favorites today.

Metrics are pretty mixed here and the first game today shows to be a pass on the spread both long term and for a short term trade.

The Total sits right between the stacking forecast and the public gauge. I have some indications that this game will go Over when we look at the moneyflow among recent Total bettors and have countered the sharp forecast by picking up OVER 50.5 (-105) for Toronto Argonauts vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Streak breaking bettors have had to show patience when it comes to trying to get certain Overs and I think this game sets up an opportunity for those bettors to get paid.

Good Luck.