The Official 2017 CFL Thread

[KVB]

There it is, I think it happened before I submitted the last post.

So much for the halftime bet.


It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

I'm getting some dinner.

[KVB]

I want to be clear when I say there is no halftime bet because of the score. What I really mean to say is that I’m not checking the line for a bet because that last score took away any advantage of inefficiency that the number would bring; at least I think.

If the number was right, there could always be a bet.

The second half line of 27.5 puts us back to the 56.5 line. We have nothing new to gain on the Over play and even had the number been less, we would have been facing a halftime vig, not reduced.

These factors can make a difference in the profitability of the numbers, whether it’s a halftime bet or team total or prop.

Experience tells me that the 29 point halftime score left us with a gamble, and not a profitable one. Indeed, it has.

I was explaining to my daughter, when there were 22 points near the end of the half, that I expected either the moneyline or Total pace to turn from what we are seeing, and I think the Saskatchewan moneyline is going to be safe.

This makes me confident in the Over but any further bets are probably not going to be good ones, even in the live markets. We would have to see a drought in the third but I doubt the pace falls off too much during the second half as that would leave the live Totals vulnerable.

Things rarely get that easy.

[KVB]

...Things rarely get that easy...

Things are that easy at this point. I’m wrong have waning confidence in that pre game Over.

Here’s SBR’s Pinny summary…

08/13 09:34 PM	27½ -118	27½ +105
08/13 09:33 PM	27½ -106	27½ -106
08/13 09:32 PM	27½ -100	27½ -112
08/13 09:31 PM	27½ -104	27½ -108
08/13 09:31 PM	27½ +101	27½ -114
08/13 09:29 PM	27½ +106	27½ -119
08/13 09:27 PM	27½ +105	27½ -118
08/13 09:26 PM	27½ +102	27½ -115

Like I said before the number came out, it’s a gamble and Pinny is on all sides of 27.5. Bettors can assume the halftime money bought into the Over, but it looks a bit like Pinny welcomed that action.

...The market pull back from 56.5 to 56 while writing this post also triggered the Over play. Unfortunately, some metrics show a danger of a 55 point game and are highlighted with these line shifts but the low vig trade makes it worth the risk...

They only need 26 2^nd half points to hit 55, this allows for a 27 point second half. The second half can still go Under, and yet still go Over the 55.5 point close.

From a market perspective, that’s part of the reason it’s a gamble.

[Hngkng]

Huge riders win. Congrats on your money line bet!

[KVB]

Got riders too, even tho I'm from BC..

Nice hit.

[KVB]

Huge riders win. Congrats on your money line bet!

[Hngkng]

Well I think we all had an ok week. Let's do better next week!

[Jayvegas420]

Some really sharp analysis on last night's game.
The flow of money made sense & in the end we were right!

What does this tell us about what we should expect from the markets this week?

[Hngkng]

I can only imagine the sharp play tonight is Winnipeg -1.0?

[Jayvegas420]

Disagree knger......
95 BIG ONES on the Eskimos
[IMG][/IMG]

[Hngkng]

Oh wow that's a bit surprising.

I thought it was Winnipeg due to the big Edmonton injuries and the fact that Winnipeg plays real well at home.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has a tie with each team, Edmonton and Winnipeg scoring 40 or more points. More specifically, the raw score shows an exact tie with 41 points.

The stacking forecast gives Edmonton a win with 30 points to Winnipeg’s 24 or 25 points. Some unsophisticated numbers give Edmonton a small win and virtually all numbers, save the stacking forecast, come to a score in the 60’s or more. The public gauge has Winnipeg winning 31-30.

The Total is closer to the stacking forecast and between that prediction and the rest of the numbers. The early opener was 57.5 and the line quickly traded at one of the season’s highest numbers…59. Many houses picked the line up at 58.5 on its way back down to 57. I have indications that we should see an Over tonight for multiple reasons and I it’s one reason the line is in the upper 50’s. However, it is my opinion that the market has seen some manipulation implying the Under is the target. With signals mixed and the short upward move, I’m passing on Over the low 57 point number.

Truthfully, I have numbers telling me this game falls between 59 and 57 but am not trading it that way. This was a good game for such manipulation.

As far as the spread is concerned, I have indications that the underdog would cover this game, regardless of who is favored. There is a strong advantage to these indications and the market is aware of it. It’s no surprise that we have seen both teams trade as underdogs.

It’s also no surprise that the opening line of Edmonton -2 floated toward the forecast. The sharp forecast shows an exact tie, so any underdog may be triggered, depending on the discrepancy. It’s certainly the case that late underdog money, now on Edmonton agrees with the stacking forecast, even if the sharp forecast is sidelined.

In the end, it’s difficult to tell which direction to go but one thing that can tip the scales is the idea of fading the public. But where’s the public?

On top of all this, there is the obvious market pressure for Edmonton to lose a game. With the Edmonton favored by 2 and all the factors together, we can see why the line pushed like it did. Several purposes get served with tonight’s line and movement and that’s what I’m trying to get across. If a sharp line is one that serve’s the bookmaker’s purpose, then this line has been sharp and intentional the whole way.

One final factor, Edmonton injuries can be a good excuse for the small line.

Does it lead us to a play? Unfortunately because of the market adjustment I’m pulled off of what would be a contrarian play on the Edmonton.

Think about that, the contrarian may actually be on the undefeated team and the public is selling them out? Make no mistake, undefeated Edmonton has their backers, but the market was able to shift money and bets to Winnipeg. Sharp.

Last week Edmonton was a small favorite and the line also went away from them, crossing the pick to make it Ottawa favored. Edmonton handled the business and remained undefeated.

In a world of give and take, we are facing a potential Edmonton loss, again. Winnipeg was the opening underdog and that market metric calling for the underdog in regards to openers is very strong. In reality, I already passed on a Winnipeg underdog bet here.

The originators and books got what they want, have sidelined some sharp groups and set the scene for Edmonton to get there first loss, in agreement with market movement. I'd like to pass tonight in hopes that we see one more Edmonton win, but somehow I doubt it.

The books are running out of techniques with Edmonton and may repeat themselves, but I doubt Edmonton as an underdog at or near the close is going to be successful too many times in a row. In fact twice in a row at this point, in this environment, is stretching it pretty far.

With the latest metric added, we see the market is stretched but this league has been stretching different aspects of the market for a few weeks now. Because of the price, I went ahead with Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-105) over Edmonton Eskimos.

I expect this, like last week, to be good game down the stretch as both teams should compete equally, in accordance with the sharp forecast. This even split on the field should reflect the sharpness of the line in regards to the books intentions.

Good Luck

[Hngkng]

Winnipeg is my bet for tonight too!

[KVB]

I was a bit rushed and am sorry my post was so close to game time. I'm recovering from a neck procedure that sucked and it took up some time today.

...The books are running out of techniques with Edmonton and may repeat themselves, but I doubt Edmonton as an underdog at or near the close is going to be successful too many times in a row. In fact twice in a row at this point, in this environment, is stretching it pretty far....

Edmonton as an underdog creates a certain environment itself. It's entirely possible that this line will close a pick or even become Edmonton favored by the final trades, a move that would alleviate this pressure.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Anybody have good EDM injury info for this game?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Edm 7-0. I do think there's a swell of bettors saying "Edm can't be this good (ESPECIALLY considering the injuries)."

Good luck, boys.

[KVB]

It may also seem like I was going back and forth in my post, that's because I was going back and forth. As metrics regarding the environment get added to the final conclusion, the edges shift and change. I was, in a sense, walking through some of those factors. It can be a bit revealing if you read closely, even though it was written quickly.

[Hngkng]

Anybody have good EDM injury info for this game?

Where should I even begin? haha

Colquhoun, Greenwood, King, King, Parrish, Konar, Rottier, Smith, Whyte, Bowman, Hunt, Lawrence, Sherritt, White, Van, Groulx, Sorensen, Peters, Zylstra.

Sewell should be out too.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Of game1 starters...how many of those 24 will start tonite?

Reilly has been healthy + started every game. So, there's not THAT much buzz, unless u really follow cfl closely.

[KVB]

Anybody have good EDM injury info for this game?

One receiver back, another out. Two defenders out that could matter. It's a cluster fuk, with all kinds of injuries, but they have the wins. There isn't much information available outside of articles here and there and video blurbs that don't say much.

Edmonton is deep and will get deeper when starters return.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good stuff, KVB.

That's sort of my point. It's not like Don Best is listing EDM injuries position by position. I picked up on some of it by listening to the Sirius 167 broadcast. Announcers mentioned lineup has totally been in flux in recent weeks, but they keep winning.

[KVB]

I'm watching the live line, down to 52.5, it's tempting.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm watching the live line, down to 52.5, it's tempting.

Slow, slow. If a quagmire opened up...that would be great. Think Noah's Ark.

[KVB]

Down to 48.5.

[KVB]

...it is my opinion that the market has seen some manipulation implying the Under is the target...

What I mean here is that the early opener, with lower limits, was hit to raise the line to 59 with the intention of hitting the higher number with Under bets. Like I mentioned, there indications of the game scoring in this range and any extra room on the Under is to be gained.

That means the Under is being looked at sharply and it's tough to go with any over.

The live line is down to 42.5 and I am passing and heading for dinner.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

How much is EDM offense compromised by the injuries?

[KVB]

Disagree knger......
95 BIG ONES on the Eskimos...

It could be a close one and with Winnipeg playing stronger early, my Winnipeg bet could be seeing the sharks...



I practically never like to lead early.

[Jayvegas420]

Its not the high scoring shoot out everyone thought it would be.
Live line down to 40.
I feel this bodes well for Edmonton 2nd half.

[KVB]

How much is EDM offense compromised by the injuries?

https://www.esks.com/roster/

There are 1 game and 6 game injury lists here. I think it's updated, it looks updated.

Check out the DE's and DB's on the 6 game list.

[KVB]

Its not the high scoring shoot out everyone thought it would be.
Live line down to 40.
I feel this bodes well for Edmonton 2nd half.

Or the Over for the second half, but I don't trust anything directing me there. It would have to be a very low line, and if it were, I would be suspicious...lol.

Edmonton is never out of it and I see they closed a pick at Pinny. I still think that Edmonton underdog line showing up two weeks in a row is going to be a tough Edmonton hit the second time.

Then again, trailing by 10 and not playing well early, a win is a tough on the field as well, and it's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

EDM has closed strong all season long. That's for sure.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I very likely will Pass the 2H line.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://www.esks.com/roster/

There are 1 game and 6 game injury lists here. I think it's updated, it looks updated.

Check out the DE's and DB's on the 6 game list.

Very lengthy injury List. I know this guy is a stud:

Zylstra, Brandon

WR

[KVB]

I very likely will Pass the 2H line.

The Total is 28.5 for a 48.5 point game.

That 42.5 live line all of the sudden looks good.



I think it's Winnipeg and the 2nd half line of Edmonton -3 has no appeal.

[KVB]

Very lengthy injury List. I know this guy is a stud:

Zylstra, Brandon

WR

I think it's something like 18 players out tonight, some starters, and some back ups.