The coin flip theory is a joke

[fearless]

I've never been involved in a sporting event where I didn't know who had the edge. This knowledge starts in primary school when kids complain about one of the teams being stacked. I say there's no such thing as coin flip sporting event.

Even 5 year olds know this. Don't you remember picking teams in kindergarten? Some of the most heated debates in primary school that I can remember were over who had first pick. Why? The team with the first pick has the edge even when kindergartners play dodge ball!

There's no such thing as a coin flip sporting event. There's always an edge for one of the teams.

[jjgold]

Fearless there might be an edge for one team to win the game but when pointspreads are involved it is 100% a coin flip.

[slacker00]

I don't think the term "coin flip" should be taken too literally in this case. If the game is a PK, then it's a coin flip, it's just terminology.

If you can cap a game with one of the teams having a 3 point edge, then there's your handicap. What if the book spread was 3 points and you've got the game as PK, is it a coin flip? I guess your answer is "No, I have never handicapped a game as a PK.". That just means you haven't capped enough games, rookie. Get in the trenches, roll up your sleeves, you'll cap on all points of the point spread continuum over time.

Another theory is that you've got a psychological block in and around the zero or PK. I know when I started out, it was weird handicapping when crossing around that number. Truth is, it's the easiest number to cross. In the NFL 0, 1 & 2 are all pretty meaningless. It doesn't get interesting until you hit the 3. So, just don't stress about it too much. "Coin flip" is just a number, treat it for what it is.

[pavyracer]

There is always an edge but the books will create a trap with the line to sucker your hard earned money.

[Matt Rain]

"Biased coin flip" is probably more like it if we're talking MLs, but point-spread are just that (in major markets like mainstream US sports, at major books like Pinny, CRIS and Greek).

[Matt Rain]

Rec. gamblers and squares routinely overestimate their edge by a couple orders of magnitude.

[bettilimbroke999]

I've never been involved in a sporting event where I didn't know who had the edge. This knowledge starts in primary school when kids complain about one of the teams being stacked. I say there's no such thing as coin flip sporting event.

Even 5 year olds know this. Don't you remember picking teams in kindergarten? Some of the most heated debates in primary school that I can remember were over who had first pick. Why? The team with the first pick has the edge even when kindergartners play dodge ball!

There's no such thing as a coin flip sporting event. There's always an edge for one of the teams.

Find a book that will let you bet MLs at even money and you'll win more money than Bill Gates has, the book unfortunately would be a scambook and would place your deposits in the G-strings of CR whores but still you're win % would be incredible

[hoopster42]

Fearless there might be an edge for one team to win the game but when pointspreads are involved it is 100% a coin flip.

exactly. if every gm had an edge of say at least 53% for one team, then this dude should bet on every frikken game on the board! the reason you have to be selective is because MOST spreads are right on the money, they are coin flips as to who will cover

very easy concept