Dodger tracking thread

**JerseyGodFather** · 06-26-17, 09:07 PM

Interesting thread I'll be following.

**Hu$tle** · 06-26-17, 09:08 PM

I have been using this strategy except lay off of huge ml <-250 or 300 unless in parlay!!

and rl

and live with the lead (THINK JENSEN)

**Booya711** · 06-26-17, 09:10 PM

Until they lose in the playoffs as usual??

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 06-26-17, 11:22 PM

It'll most likely be better to fade.

**pilebuck13** · 06-26-17, 11:35 PM

Hopefully it was a bet debate seems like a lot of work

**jjgold** · 06-27-17, 05:08 AM

They will lose lots of games men

Hot streak over

**stevenash** · 06-27-17, 07:45 AM

Originally posted by pilebuck13

Hopefully it was a bet debate seems like a lot of work

Four minutes a day, not really a lot of work.
If I miss a day or two very easy to recover the lines.

Maeda opens up -220

**stevenash** · 06-27-17, 06:16 PM

6/27
Dodgers -215 (8.5 under -115)
Chavez vs. Maeda

YTD L.A. Dodgers 0-1
-220

**Bostongambler** · 06-27-17, 06:48 PM

Nice thread Steve Nash.

The Dodgers will definitely be overpriced going forward. The shops with the low juice overnights will be hit early and then let the market settle and you will have a nice delta at the closing price. I'll be watching.

**jjgold** · 06-27-17, 06:52 PM

Fade them again tonight

**Bostongambler** · 06-27-17, 07:09 PM

Gold I'll give you 10,000 to stay out of this thread.

**JIBBBY** · 06-27-17, 07:12 PM

Angels will battle.. Dodgers still probably rebound and win tonight but at those +190 odds it might be worth a shot if ya wanna gamble. Dodger bats went ice cold last night, if they stay cold again tonight, Angels win again...

**Bostongambler** · 06-27-17, 07:15 PM

Total opened at 9 overnight. It got hammered real quick and dropped to 8.5.

**JIBBBY** · 06-27-17, 07:38 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Had a debate with somebody regarding betting the Dodgers from here on out.
He said you will show a profit betting the Dodgers every game for the rest of the season.
I said I don't think so due to the over inflated lines.

I'll keep a running log here using 5 Dimes lines when I am able to post (tonight's line is the closing line)

6/26
Dodgers -220 (9 over -115)
Nolasco vs. Hill

There are a few other gambling angles you can take if you are thinking of riding or fading a team out for the rest of the season..

Yes the odds for every game will vary and be - for the Dodgers, if you fade the Dodgers you are getting +odds every game.. So how will that pan out either way til the end of the season, I'm guessing it will probably even itself out.... Depends if the Dodgers remain hot or go cold the rest of the way???...

I'd say think about these gambling theories and weigh in these odds instead, you will either win or lose no break even.....

- The double up theory.. Start with a decent bank roll and limit to start - Now if you think the Dodgers are good enough that they won't go longer then a 3 game losing streak the rest of the season then you will win money with this theory...

In simple terms you double after every Dodgers loss at those - odds til you win, start over and then increase the bets as you go as your balance increases... Always keep just enough in to cover 3 games at any time the rest of the season at - odds.. Bottom line then is - If the Dodgers go on a 4 game losing streak at anytime for the rest of the season you will get rolled and lose everything you started with.. If the Dodgers never have another 4 game losing streak the rest of the season you will win big money in the end..

- You can also go the other way and fade the Dodger every game and then keep doubling up longer because of the + odds that you get in every game.. The problem with fading is that chances are the Dodgers are good enough to go on a long winning streak.. So the fade double up theory is probably not a good idea because great teams are very capable of going on long winning streaks..

My two cents anyways for what ever it is worth.. I hope I made sense as I just typed this out quickly..

**Shute** · 06-27-17, 07:46 PM

Juice on the dodgers will eat away your winnings. Too much juice with this team.
Good luck. Shute

**Shute** · 06-27-17, 07:47 PM

I do like me some RL though.

**Bostongambler** · 06-27-17, 08:14 PM

No no no on the rl. It's hard enough to win let alone - the rl.

Even the worst teams in the league win 60 games.

**Shute** · 06-27-17, 08:18 PM

Originally posted by Bostongambler

No no no on the rl. It's hard enough to win let alone - the rl.

Even the worst teams in the league win 60 games.

Yes Boston. I agree. Bases are so juiced though.
Only way is to spot bet and pray. RL vs ML vs juice is the conomdrom. Impossible to figure out.
That's why I usually just fade crappy teams; take dogs down the card; and if there is a juicy fav; I'll play a RL. And pray. Thanks for your correct insight. Shute.

**teaserpleaser** · 06-27-17, 08:19 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Angels will battle.. Dodgers still probably rebound and win tonight but at those +190 odds it might be worth a shot if ya wanna gamble. Dodger bats went ice cold last night, if they stay cold again tonight, Angels win again...

Chavez is hot garbage

If they cant hit him I don't know what to tell you.

**Bostongambler** · 06-27-17, 08:31 PM

What I can attest to ( as of now) when opening totals get bet down ( ex; total drops from 9 to 8.5 to 8) and such, they seem to come in. Obviously your not getting the best number but they still are +.

**Bostongambler** · 06-27-17, 08:57 PM

Total went to 8

**stevenash** · 06-27-17, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Yes the odds for every game will vary and be - for the Dodgers, if you fade the Dodgers you are getting +odds every game.. So how will that pan out either way til the end of the season, I'm guessing it will probably even itself out....

In another thread I stated (and backed up my theory with pain staking data) that the Dodgers will be -200 or more at home every time Kershaw starts and upwards to -300, Wood usually will be -10 to -15 less than Kershaw. Hell they were -220 last night with Rich Hill, let's face it, Hill is a nice middle of the rotation starter, but -220, really?

I'm not going to lay out the data all over again, long story short, LA will be on the average be about -180 every game for the rest of the season.

There are 74 Dodgers game left, if they went 48 and 26 at -180 you would collect 4800, and at -180 you would lose 4680.
To turn a small profit the Dodgers would have to go at least 22 games over for the remainder of the season.

That's a lot to ask.
I also mentioned with Kershaw making another 16 starts providing he stays healthy, you always have a chance.
However Kershaw and Wood will always be -240 at home give or take if the Dodgers lost say 5 of those combined 16 starts at home (16 games or so will be on the road) you collect 1100 for the 11 wins, and about 1240 give or take for the 5 losses, at -220 (and that's being generous) that's the break even point, -1100 (220x5) Remember, even if the top two pitch well, there's always a ND team loss possibility.

Dodgers average line has been -216 in their last 8

Date	Vs	Score	Away Starter	Home Starter	LAD Line	O/U
06/26/17	LAA	L 0-4	Ricky Nolasco (R)	Rich Hill (L)	L -219	U 9 100
06/25/17	COL	W 12-6	Tyler Anderson (L)	Brandon McCarthy (R)	W -154	O 8.5 -111
06/24/17	COL	W 4-0	Tyler Chatwood (R)	Clayton Kershaw (L)	W -254	U 7 102
06/23/17	COL	W 6-1	Kyle Freeland (L)	Alex Wood (L)	W -221	U 8 -116
06/22/17	NYM	W 6-3	Steven Matz (L)	Hyun-Jin Ryu (L)	W -173	O 8.5 -101
06/21/17	NYM	W 8-2	Tyler Pill (R)	Rich Hill (L)	W -228	O 9 -107
06/20/17	NYM	W 12-0	Robert Gsellman (R)	Brandon McCarthy (R)	W -211	O 9 102
06/19/17	NYM	W 10-6	Zack Wheeler (R)	Clayton Kershaw (L)	W -285	O 7 -121

If the Dodger line is -200 for the next 84 games, they would have to go 56 and 27 to make a couple of pennies.

Hey, I'm just curious to see how this all plays out.
They should win tonight, but I'm not laying -215 or 220 to find out.

**stevenash** · 06-28-17, 07:57 PM

6/28
Dodgers -127 8 under -120)
Mayer vs. Ryu
(YTD 1-1 -1.2*)

Interesting, this is the cheapest the Dodgers have been all week and this is the lowest total since I started this thread.

What's also interesting is Ryu is the weakest link in the Dodger rotation giving up over 4 earned runs a game and sports a WH/IP of 1.40 or in other words allows a little less that 12 1/2 baserunners per nine and that's a ton, way above league average.

And Mayer is no great shakes either, he almost has the same numbers as Ryu.
Angels Mayer has a 4.20 ERA and sports a very high WH/IP as well (1.46)

At first glance the casual baseball fan, the one that watches his local market team once or twice a week, who couldn't give a crap about the other 29 teams must be thinking, wow, "two pitchers aren't very good, together they give up nine earned runs per game, and the total is only eight? Free money"

Why is this total eight?
My theory is it could be that the Angels line up is right handed dominate, and despite the real ugly overall season numbers, Ryu is tough on right handed batters. Lefties destroy him, Ryu is tough on RHB and the only two lefties that are in the game tonight for Angels are Calhoun, who has pop, and Ben Revere (how is he even still in MLB is beyond me) who hits ninth, and couldn't break a pane of glass with a batted ball, that Ben Revere with 7 lifetime homers in eight years. Once upon a time he hit .300, these days he's a .220 hitter.
To his credit, Revere does have a very good glove and has speed to burn, and that's his game.

I have another theory as to why the total is eight, and not higher, and this is just my theory is the fact these two teams have been playing each other all week, these two teams are very familiar with each other at this point and know every tendency by now of how the other hits, where they hit, etc. etc. etc. I can not prove that this is a factor that goes into line setting, just a theory.

Now is Alex Mayer really a hamburger?
He musts be right, I mean the numbers say he gives up over 4 earned a game and allows almost 13 base runners a game, right?

Mayer has made 10 starts this season, throw out the two starts where he got HAMMERED that skew his season numbers upward, and look at the other eight starts, they are good.
Two of those eight starts he's given up three earned runs, and the other six he gave up two or less.
His K ratio is elite, strikes out 10.5 per game.
What's his problem then?
Mayer is a five and fly starter and that's because he throws so many damn pitches.
When he's not striking out 10 1/2 per game he's walking 6 a game per nine innings.
Takes a lot more pitches to get a strike out than a ground ball out, and it takes a lot of pitches to walk a batter too, well duh!

Also, Mayer (like Ryu) is real tough on right handed batters, Corey Seager and his 12 homers and .300 average is out of the lineup tonight, my guess is rest, and Klay Thompson's kid brother Trayce is in batting ninth as Chris Taylor slides over to SS. Thompson bats right.

Even though I'm not betting the total or the side I can see why the total is eight and it's not such a gift that is appears to be at first glance.

Why is the game only -127?
Because Mayer is better than many think he is, Ryu is the weakest link in the Dodger rotation.
I can't bet Ryu, he's not good this year, he's thrown gems in the past, but I'm not betting the 'good' Ryu shows up, and I'm not betting Mayer either, because he can get into trouble with his walks and shit the bed like he did back in May when Seattle bludgeoned him to death, or he could throw a gem like he did against my beloved KC Royals a week and a half ago, posting six shutout innings of two hit baseball walking one while making the Royals his personal meat puppet. (Speaking of KC, can you please hang on to this 5-1 lead please?)

You want the winner of this game?

Hang a dartboard, get a dart, if the dart winds up on an even number, Dodgers win, if the dart winds up on an odd number, Angels win, if the dart winds up on the wall, it's going to get rained out.

This thread is all about if you bet the Dodgers (starting 6/26) flat betting only 1*, each and every game from here on out until the end of the season, will you turn a profit?

If you are betting the Dodgers will turn a profit, this is the game you can afford to take a loss on.
Why? Because the line is so damn cheap, if you are going to lose a game it's better to lose at -127 than -197.
You can't take many -200 losses and show a profit.

Here's proof why I never, as in ever lay 2 to 1 on a baseball game.
Dodgers are 1-1 in this thread, but they are not even in the money column, the column that matters.
Dodgers lost two nights ago at -220, so even though 1-1 is even, minus -120 is not.
You have to win this game tonight just to almost get back to even, if they do, you are 2 and 1 and still out cash.
Lose this one you are out -220 and even though Kershaw looks like a stone cold lock, you ain't getting him cheaper than -250 tomorrow night, and let's say he pitches his balls off, goes into the ninth tied 2-2, and the bullpen blows it in the 12th inning, you're out -250 for the game even though Kershaw did everything your -250 was supposed to do.

Got to fly now gents, here's to you all picking up some coin tonight.

**mackave** · 06-28-17, 08:03 PM

Good luck Nasher

**jjgold** · 06-28-17, 08:42 PM

Guess he's taking them again tonight

**stevenash** · 06-28-17, 08:48 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Guess he's taking them again tonight

Don't know, the debate is will the Dodgers turn a profit by the end of the year flat betting then every game.

**stevenash** · 06-28-17, 09:07 PM

Kershaw opener tomorrow -220
Run line -130

**jjgold** · 06-28-17, 09:29 PM

If they win tonight they win tomorrow although if they lose tonight watch out tomorrow could see an upset

**jm8122** · 06-29-17, 12:32 AM

Wow talk about a weird way to lose a game those two errors bottom of 9th

**thomaschau** · 06-29-17, 12:34 AM

damn dodger

**thomaschau** · 06-29-17, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

Kershaw opener tomorrow -220
Run line -130

should we play?

**mackave** · 06-29-17, 01:22 AM

Originally posted by thomaschau

should we play?

jj check in

**jjgold** · 06-29-17, 04:29 AM

Looks like a tough spot now

Angels much better without Trout so could be trap

**stevenash** · 06-29-17, 07:18 PM

6/29
Dodgers -240 (under 7.5 -115)
Ramirez vs. Kershaw
(YTD 1-2) -2.47*

Good news is if you are flatting the Dodgers, you only lost `127 last night.
Bad news is you really need to win those games to offset a future Kershaw or Wood heavily juiced loss.

We also learned that what appears on the surface is not always the case.
Last night's total was 8.
With those two pitchers starting last night the total looked like it was going to be 11.
We broke down why it could not go over 8, and sure enough, if you bet the under you never would have broken a sweat as the final went 3-2.

No need to break down tonight's game, Dodgers are starting a superstar in Kershaw, Angels are starting a Punch and Judy fourth man in the rotation starter in Ramirez, who left handed batters just destroy.

I don't bet -240 in any baseball game, the run line is -150, I don't lay -150 in any baseball game either (my cut off point if you are wondering is 4 to win 3 (-133)

If you have the need to bet Kershaw, and he should cruise tonight is in a 2 team parlay.
If you bet even the run line at it goes down, say Dodgers win 3-2, you're out -150.
If you bet Dodgers straight up, and it goes down, you're out -240.
I don't have time to go into all the details right now, a couple of years ago I explained in painstaking details how a heavily juiced starting pitcher used in a parlay actually reduces the books edge. but like I started to say, if you have the need to wager Kershaw tonight (and I don't even though he should be on cruise control from first to pitch to last)
is in a two team parlay.

Oh, one last item, even though the over has been covering lately in Kershaw starts, under 7.5 is the way to go if you are inclined to wager the total.

Be back later or tomorrow, best of luck all