Judge +300 to lead the majors in home runs

[Goat Milk]

Don't really know anything about baseball. Think this will hit though. Sprinkled 50 on it.

[TheLock]

Trap line

He will regress

[jjgold]

Who is his closest competitor?

[shocka1212]

Who is his closest competitor?

moustakis, Morrison and Justin smoak.. smoak has the best shot at stealing it imo... judges OPS is absolutely bizarre if you ask me..

[pattymayo]

Meh. He has 22 now, bunch of guys at 19 and 18. Hard to think he'll keep up this pace all season. First full season, these guys usually flame out when the true grind of post all star break hot summer baseball takes its toll. +300 doesn't seem enough to me on a bet that'll be pending for the next 3+ months and you probably could have gotten better odds in a week or two assuming others catch up.

[bozeman]

[Underdog5229]

he plays in the bandbox yankee stadium so he could keep it up. But this same shit happened last year with the yankees and Sancheez. he dropped off and only has like what 10hr so far this year.

[d2bets]

There are so many players in both leagues that could catch him. HR's are up this year.

[lakerboy]

He won't hit 38

[kidcudi92]

Don't really know anything about baseball. Think this will hit though. Sprinkled 50 on it.

sounds like a good betting strategy

[d2bets]

He won't hit 38

Unless he gets hurt, it's virtually impossible he will hit < 38 HR's.

He would only need 16 in 99 games. That's a 26 HR season pace. How would he hit less than that?

[lakerboy]

Unless he gets hurt, it's virtually impossible he will hit < 38 HR's.

He would only need 16 in 99 games. That's a 26 HR season pace. How would he hit less than that?

Watch and see. Pitchers adjust and dog days of summer

[MaddyMax]

he will flunk hard in 2nd half. he has been extremely lucky.

he has a very high strike out rate, his contact rate is 65% same as most players who hit around .200. his BABIP is .424.....

if you have in fantasy league, best time to trade him. you can land players like trout for him! try to get domingo santana as a throw in along with the best player in the team when you trade judge. domingo santana will have better mumbers than judge in 2nd half

[pattymayo]

he will flunk hard in 2nd half. he has been extremely lucky.

he has a very high strike out rate, his contact rate is 65% same as most players who hit around .200. his BABIP is .424.....

30% of his hits are HRs. He'll regress to feast or famine type slugger. And 15 of his 22 HRs have come in the joke of a stadium that is Yankee stadium

[d2bets]

Watch and see. Pitchers adjust and dog days of summer

Well, he's not going to keep up a 1.146 OPS, but 38 HR will be easy pickens. Bet we'll see more than a dozen guys this year hit 40+ and he'll be one of them. Put me down for 46 HR for Judge.

[lakerboy]

Well, he's not going to keep up a 1.146 OPS, but 38 HR will be easy pickens. Bet we'll see more than a dozen guys this year hit 40+ and he'll be one of them. Put me down for 46 HR for Judge.

Cool. Let's get back to this in late August

[blankoblanco]

Seems kinda trappy. I'd abstain from betting anyone

[MaddyMax]

Does any book offer head to head on home runs. I would take players like Ryon Healy as a nice dog to finish ahead of Judge in home runs...

[ticklemepink1991]

he plays in the bandbox yankee stadium so he could keep it up. But this same shit happened last year with the yankees and Sancheez. he dropped off and only has like what 10hr so far this year.

he only played in 37 games and has 11 homers already

average up to 280 as well.. guy has been on a little streak himself (5 HRs in the last 7 days)

[ManOfValue]

Tough to call, any of the top 20 can easily win that. Trout has missed a bunch of games and still not too far behind with 16.

[blankoblanco]

Tough to call, any of the top 20 can easily win that. Trout has missed a bunch of games and still not too far behind with 16.

I agree. So I don't think +300 odds (or any of the odds on any player) are good at all.

[ticklemepink1991]

Tough to call, any of the top 20 can easily win that. Trout has missed a bunch of games and still not too far behind with 16.

yeah its to bad he has to miss 2 months though, would have loved to see him play a full season this year with the pace he was on

[teecee]

What's the number on Votto? Dude mashes and plays home games at a launching pad.

[TheLock]

If Judge played in Marlins Park he'd have 17 HR's.

[ticklemepink1991]

30% of his hits are HRs. He'll regress to feast or famine type slugger. And 15 of his 22 HRs have come in the joke of a stadium that is Yankee stadium

Yeah? Joke of a stadium? and how many of those homers would be home runs in other parks? give me a break you met fan scum

[Mike Huntertz]

IMHO, the talking heads are hyping Judge big time.
The line should be +450ish except he's a Yankee.

[johnnydallaz]

This man is my hero!

[Goat Milk]

Damn literally no one likes this bet

lol f it

[jt315]

he plays in the bandbox yankee stadium so he could keep it up. But this same shit happened last year with the yankees and Sancheez. he dropped off and only has like what 10hr so far this year.

I haven't seen many 320 foot bandbox HRs from Judge so far.
As for Sanchez . He has 11 and missed a month .
How many catchers will hit more HRs ?

[crackerjack]

Damn literally no one likes this bet

lol f it

People like the bet just not the odds. Should be higher

[MaddyMax]

Does any book offer head to head on home runs. I would take players like Ryon Healy as a nice dog to finish ahead of Judge in home runs...

Trust me on this, Ryon Healy will finish ahead of Judge in home runs and with a better batting average than judge

[mcfugly]

judge sucks dikk. every time i watch him in high pressure situation guy can't hit to save his fukkin life

massively over rated and over hyped

[stevenash]

Don't really know anything about baseball. Think this will hit though. Sprinkled 50 on it.

My two cents.
There will be regression, but that doesn't mean he can't win the home run crown.
3 to 1 is a pretty good price.
What you have to fade is guys like Thames in Milwaukee and Joey Votto in Cincinnati.
Both those guys play in ball parks where the ball flies out when it gets hot, especially Milwaukee as Cincy's park is a band box to begin with.

And it goes without saying you have to worry about both Blackman and Arenado in Coors, as both of those beasts can put up five each in a week, especially if they have a eight game home stand in Coors. And with Reynolds mashing too you can't pitch around any of them.

Plus there's that guy in Washington D.C. too and Goldschmidt in Arizona.

3 to 1 is probably the best you are going to get, like I said, it's fair value, keep an eye on those three in Colorado (Blackman, Arenando, and Reynolds)

Joey Votto scares me, Reds have five legit power hitters in that lineup, you can't pitch around him, he has the best eye in the game, the best swing in the game and a short porch in right field.

Sortable Batting
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	WAR
1	Aaron Judge	NYY	235	60	79	11	3	23	53	6	2	44	83	.336	.445	.702	1.147	4.1
2	Logan Morrison	TB	229	40	56	12	0	21	47	1	0	38	66	.245	.353	.572	.925	1.8
3	Eric Thames	MIL	219	50	58	13	1	20	38	2	1	45	67	.265	.399	.607	1.007	1.7
4	Ryan Zimmerman	WSH	235	45	82	19	0	19	54	1	0	17	48	.349	.391	.672	1.063	2.3
	Joey Votto	CIN	247	49	75	16	0	19	51	2	1	46	34	.304	.415	.599	1.014	3.1
	Justin Smoak	TOR	226	38	66	7	1	19	45	0	0	21	46	.292	.352	.584	.936	1.7
	Cody Bellinger	LAD	188	37	49	10	1	19	43	4	0	21	64	.261	.333	.628	.961	2.0
8	Jay Bruce	NYM	256	39	70	16	0	18	47	0	1	25	58	.273	.338	.547	.885	1.7
	Mike Moustakas	KC	244	34	68	13	0	18	45	0	0	14	45	.279	.318	.553	.871	1.2
	Khris Davis	OAK	248	41	59	9	0	18	45	2	0	30	90	.238	.319	.492	.811	0.4
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	WAR
	Marcell Ozuna	MIA	259	40	84	13	0	18	49	0	1	29	63	.324	.391	.583	.974	2.7
	George Springer	HOU	255	50	71	13	0	18	43	0	3	25	68	.278	.352	.541	.893	2.4
	Joey Gallo	TEX	215	41	42	9	2	18	38	4	0	27	91	.195	.294	.507	.801	1.5
	Scott Schebler	CIN	225	32	56	9	0	18	36	3	1	17	50	.249	.320	.529	.849	1.1
15	Mark Reynolds	COL	241	40	73	9	0	17	55	1	1	32	71	.303	.385	.552	.937	1.3
	Yonder Alonso	OAK	189	37	57	11	0	17	37	1	0	29	49	.302	.397	.630	1.027	1.8
	Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	249	42	69	15	0	17	45	0	0	30	67	.277	.358	.542	.900	2.0
	Bryce Harper	WSH	233	54	74	16	0	17	51	2	2	42	55	.318	.422	.605	1.028	2.8
	Justin Bour	MIA	198	28	60	8	0	17	44	1	0	23	49	.303	.377	.601	.978	2.0
	Ryon Healy	OAK	262	32	75	18	0	17	42	0	1	9	72	.286	.315	.550	.865	1.4
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	WAR
21	Edwin Encarnacion	CLE	230	38	60	6	0	16	36	1	0	40	66	.261	.377	.496	.872	0.7
	Anthony Rizzo	CHC	251	42	66	14	0	16	45	5	1	43	36	.263	.395	.510	.905	2.0
	Mike Trout	LAA	163	36	55	14	2	16	36	10	1	36	42	.337	.461	.742	1.203	3.4
	Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	250	60	81	18	1	16	57	13	4	47	57	.324	.442	.596	1.038	3.6
	Miguel Sano	MIN	227	41	65	10	2	16	48	0	0	36	92	.286	.384	.559	.944	2.0
	Adam Duvall	CIN	251	35	69	15	1	16	48	4	2	16	68	.275	.320	.534	.854	1.1
	Jake Lamb	ARI	249	43	70	13	3	16	59	4	2	41	74	.281	.382	.550	.932	2.0
28	Kendrys Morales	TOR	245	34	63	12	0	15	41	0	0	17	52	.257	.307	.490	.797	0.2
	Charlie Blackmon	COL	288	58	94	17	10	15	54	5	4	21	67	.326	.377	.611	.988	2.3
	Matt Davidson	CHW	183	26	47	6	1	15	36	0	1	11	77	.257	.301	.546	.847	0.6
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	WAR
	Corey Dickerson	TB	276	49	91	20	3	15	34	2	3	14	60	.330	.367	.587	.954	2.8
	Kris Bryant	CHC	235	44	62	14	1	15	28	5	3	47	61	.264	.396	.523	.919	2.1
	Hunter Renfroe	SD	253	27	57	14	0	15	35	3	0	17	74	.225	.279	.458	.738	0.2
34	Matt Holliday	NYY	213	34	58	11	0	14	46	1	0	35	65	.272	.378	.521	.899	1.2
	Nelson Cruz	SEA	234	35	69	13	0	14	53	1	0	31	52	.295	.377	.530	.907	1.6
	Chris Davis	BAL	217	34	49	7	1	14	26	0	0	30	95	.226	.320	.461	.781	0.5
	Freddie Freeman	ATL	135	35	46	11	1	14	25	4	3	27	31	.341	.461	.748	1.209	2.6
	Ryan Schimpf	SD	165	24	26	2	0	14	25	0	0	27	70	.158	.284	.424	.709	0.5
	Salvador Perez	KC	232	29	65	13	0	14	38	0	0	9	43	.280	.312	.517	.829	1.2
	Nolan Arenado	COL	279	46	83	26	3	14	52	2	1	22	53	.297	.351	.563	.913	2.8

[blankoblanco]

It's just so damn many guys to fade, especially when you're expecting regression. If I had to take a shot in the dark, I'd think the "actual" odds on Judge are closer to +400. It's far from a terrible bet, but I don't think it's a winning bet.

[d2bets]

Cool. Let's get back to this in late August

Is it too early to get back to this?