Sports trading at the highest level

[BBMB]

JJ, 98% of sports bettors lose as well.

That's what I've done. Been a professional trading for a firm here in the States since 2015.

I was glad I was a sports bettor beforehand. Taught me a lot of the money management and patience I needed in Forex. If you don't have those two things, you're F'd 100x more in Forex than in betting. The good news is, it's a +EV market if you do it right. In a weird way, you can actually be the house instead of the player. I could go on, but I'm tired. Another time.

Seems you're ahead of the game, your insight would be much appreciated, especially in regards to how one could be the house.

With the ability to leverage, the stakes are much higher in Forex, but which would you say is more difficult to model?

Also, with an efficient system in-place at Forex, that's making consistent profits, do you think owning a sportsbook is worth the complications that would come with it? Couldn't you make more in Forex?

[jjgold]

Ralphie is a very small time micro Forex trader not even on radar with serious money

I can tell by trades he posted and stop loses

talk to me when your trading $10,000 per whole point meaning a change from 111.12-112.12 is $10,000 win or lose (USD/JPY)

[TeddyB]

I've got a question that goes back to the beginning of this thread. How could anyone start of sports gambling mutual fund? It doesn't make sense to me. If you are a sharp professional bettor and get limited by say making more than $10,000 per game, who would take your bets where you would be betting more than $100,000 per game if you have a decent sized fund? I know you could put it on an exchange but couldn't you do that anyways by yourself... except not in the U.S.

[Sam Odom]

whole thread is bullshitt

[jjgold]

I've got a question that goes back to the beginning of this thread. How could anyone start of sports gambling mutual fund? It doesn't make sense to me. If you are a sharp professional bettor and get limited by say making more than $10,000 per game, who would take your bets where you would be betting more than $100,000 per game if you have a decent sized fund? I know you could put it on an exchange but couldn't you do that anyways by yourself... except not in the U.S.

nobody

most Vegas books take peanuts

[Grits n' Gravy]

is bobbyfk still in Vegas ?

is he still a runner ?

He was Brock's runner so it was a very short lived career.

Last time I saw Bobby around town he was walking around alone in Caesars holding a diamond TR card with a glazed look on his face while trying to cash out abandoned slot credits from the machines.

[BBMB]

I've got a question that goes back to the beginning of this thread. How could anyone start of sports gambling mutual fund? It doesn't make sense to me. If you are a sharp professional bettor and get limited by say making more than $10,000 per game, who would take your bets where you would be betting more than $100,000 per game if you have a decent sized fund? I know you could put it on an exchange but couldn't you do that anyways by yourself... except not in the U.S.

The thread is about sports trading at the highest level. A sharp would increase their wager amounts in order to increase their profits, which would lead to them being limited. This means that their limits come because of a successful attempt at increasing their trading level.

With that said, the initial issue isn't the limits, because any profitable trader can limit their dollar amounts, or trading level, in order to stay under the radar. But that would be at the cost of more profits. And that would defeat the purpose of trying to make the most out of your ability to trade.

A mutual or hedge fund would be the best way for one to maximize their ability to trade, by increasing the volume at which they are able to trade.

But...as we've now established, the sports market couldn't even handle that type of investment at the moment.

So the question you should be asking is, Why bother sports trading at all?

If you are able to identify value and profit in a market that has a low ceiling, why not try and utilize those abilities in a market with theoretically no ceiling?

Trading at the highest level seems to = trading on the foreign exchange.

[Ralphie Halves]

Seems you're ahead of the game, your insight would be much appreciated, especially in regards to how one could be the house.

With the ability to leverage, the stakes are much higher in Forex, but which would you say is more difficult to model?

Also, with an efficient system in-place at Forex, that's making consistent profits, do you think owning a sportsbook is worth the complications that would come with it? Couldn't you make more in Forex?

- It's easier to model, because you can almost completely ignore fundamental analysis like I do, and just trade off of charts. In stocks, you cannot ignore it, and worse than that, you're always the last one to get the information, and you'll never be as good as the pros are when it comes to knowing how to use that info. That really sucks, and puts you behind the 8-ball before the game even starts.

- Owning a book is just consistent money all the time, hence the allure for me. I'm convinced that the smaller ones that went belly-up were run by idiots. Plus, I figure I'd get bored just trading Forex off the daily chart like I do after awhile and would want another challenge in my life, but who knows.

[BBMB]

- It's easier to model, because you can almost completely ignore fundamental analysis like I do, and just trade off of charts. In stocks, you cannot ignore it, and worse than that, you're always the last one to get the information, and you'll never be as good as the pros are when it comes to knowing how to use that info. That really sucks, and puts you behind the 8-ball before the game even starts.

I agree, the stock market isn't the best option. But if I were to draw a parallel between Forex and sports betting, Fundamental analysis would be the equivalent of handicapping games based on player statistics, while technical analysis, what you do, would be analyzing the line movements. I imagine you could increase your returns even further by utilizing both methods.

For fundamental analysis, what type of data should one be looking for?

[Ralphie Halves]

jj, 98% of sports bettors lose as well.

sssshhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!

[Ralphie Halves]

For fundamental analysis, what type of data should one be looking for?

In Forex? There's a calendar that shows when every event is happening for each currency that might influence price. I use this one: https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

When you're trading off the daily chart, you can relax and know that most of those events won't even affect you, even the red ones. if you're going the right way from a technical standpoint, price will follow regardless. Some events, like non-farm payrolls that come out tomorrow, absolutely do affect price in a big way.

Overlying fundamentals like political climate in the Euro-zone and shit like that is so subjective it doesn't even factor in. The major banks and institutions are going to take price where they want, and it's almost always against the consensus, because in order to get liquidity and distribute it back in the market, they need to take your money, and it's easiest to just find out where the majority of it is sitting. So they love it when you pay too much attention to fundamentals.

And I don't think line movement and things like that have too much to do with chart reading when it's all said and done, but it's an interesting take.

[jjgold]

This thread is a joke

Lol

Almost every finance guy says stay away from forex


It is a hedging tool for institutional traders and banks

[Waterstpub87]

This thread is a joke

Lol

Almost every finance guy says stay away from forex


It is a hedging tool for institutional traders and banks

Coach speaks wisdom as normal.

[Ralphie Halves]

This thread is a joke

Lol

Almost every finance guy says stay away from forex


It is a hedging tool for institutional traders and banks

Nobody sees the irony here?

[Ralphie Halves]

Coach speaks wisdom as normal.

Guess not. Oh well.

[jjgold]

Of course

Your a fukkin idiot to trade forex

If anything use CME currency products
Penny wide and option markets attached which is huge for strategy and if course 20x safer than unregulated forex brokers where a lot nobody on other side of trade other than inter banks



When trading exchange always other side taking opposite side

[Ralphie Halves]

Of course

Your a fukkin idiot to trade forex

*You're

If anything use CME currency products

Yes, do that. Then come back and tell me how it works for you.

When trading exchange always other side taking opposite side

Hard to read, but I think you're talking about dealing desk brokers. And yes, they exist, and IMO if I was running a broker that's how I'd do it. Those types are never in danger of going out of business due to a gigantic move in the market.

[jjgold]

Never ever trade stand alone products in the finance world meaning no derivatives attached to the instrument

It's is rule 1 in Investing

99% have no clue even what ticks are worth , unit sizes, contract sizes , margin requirements , overnight finance charges, etc


I forgot more than everyone knows in this thread

[Ralphie Halves]

I forgot more than everyone knows in this thread

Why aren't you still doing it?

[BBMB]

This thread is a joke

Lol

Almost every finance guy says stay away from forex


It is a hedging tool for institutional traders and banks

If you're able to create models and automate processes, positive results = consistent profit in any market.

While there are risks, as always, the most liquid market would be the obvious investment for any ambitious/competitive trader.

Appreciate the CME currency products plug though.

[jjgold]

Good luck guy!

[brooks85]

find a new hobby

ralphie is spot on and I can echo what he said. I was betting sports before I was trading stocks(trading, not investing) and having gone through the usual changes a bettor goes through it made trading stocks emotionless for me which is exactly what you want if you actually want to be a winner.

[BBMB]

find a new hobby

ralphie is spot on and I can echo what he said. I was betting sports before I was trading stocks(trading, not investing) and having gone through the usual changes a bettor goes through it made trading stocks emotionless for me which is exactly what you want if you actually want to be a winner.

Do you still trade stocks and/or bet on sports?

Emotions shouldn't even be a factor. You should be running the same system regardless of how you feel. The ability to automate processes is essential in today's competitive markets, and is much more relevant to being a winner.

Manually trading is outdated in 2017.

As a side-note, the reason people can easily call sports betting a hobby is because sports are involved. But no one trades on other markets as a hobby, they trade for profit.

Sports betting isn't a hobby. Watching sports is a hobby. Giving money to sportsbooks, while watching sports, also seems to be a hobby. But any attempt at sports betting should always be professionally approached, unless you just feel like participating in sportsbook philanthropy.

[Ralphie Halves]

Manually trading is outdated in 2017.

Might not be trendy right now, but it's still the best way to go IMO.

Actually not just IMO, find me an automated system that's crushed it during the last 5 years. I have an algorithm that I've created, but it cannot be put on autopilot, because there are still instances where you must use your brain. And this is Forex mind you, where fundamentals aren't even as important. You have those crazy quant day-trading systems that you have to be coked up to maintain, but even after all that shit, you're still eeking out a shade over what the S&P does. Overrated.

[BBMB]

I have an algorithm that I've created, but it cannot be put on autopilot, because there are still instances where you must use your brain. And this is Forex mind you, where fundamentals aren't even as important. You have those crazy quant day-trading systems that you have to be coked up to maintain, but even after all that shit, you're still eeking out a shade over what the S&P does. Overrated.

Would you also say that sports betting algorithm's can't be put on autopilot? Or is this Forex exclusive.

Anything can be automated. Even the extra steps one may take to verify that things are running smoothly can be programmed.

I'm curious to know of an instance where you'd have to manually maintain your system. Especially in a process like trading, where it's about rinsing and repeating.

There are going to be the occasional situations where the typical parameters are different, but if you're having to catch exceptions yourself, then doesn't that mean you haven't programmed the system to account for it yet?

Even in regards to technical analysis. How can a person read those charts faster than a computer?

Currently, there are traders who have bots that create algorithms. You may be able to edge out a profit now by yourself, but a couple years from now, when these bots become the norm, how will anyone compete with that?

[jjgold]

Charts mean nothing

If they did nobody would work

Anytime you enter a position you have 50% chance at time of trade of making profit

That is 100000000000000% fact

[Ralphie Halves]

^^^^ Step 1 -- Stop listening to those who never made it, and blame the game instead of themselves.

Would you also say that sports betting algorithm's can't be put on autopilot? Or is this Forex exclusive.

Anything can be automated. Even the extra steps one may take to verify that things are running smoothly can be programmed.

I'm curious to know of an instance where you'd have to manually maintain your system. Especially in a process like trading, where it's about rinsing and repeating.

There are going to be the occasional situations where the typical parameters are different, but if you're having to catch exceptions yourself, then doesn't that mean you haven't programmed the system to account for it yet?

Even in regards to technical analysis. How can a person read those charts faster than a computer?

Currently, there are traders who have bots that create algorithms. You may be able to edge out a profit now by yourself, but a couple years from now, when these bots become the norm, how will anyone compete with that?

I have no idea if sports betting systems can be automated. I'm sure they can.

Bots are more the norm in uber-fast daytrading (look up quant trading), which I do not do. An algorithm by loose definition, is nothing more than a set of rules that all need to be true before an action is taken. That's what I have. At 2pm PST, I look at the daily chart right as the daily candle is about to close, go through my algo, and decide to enter a trade, maintain a trade that's already on there, or do nothing and move to the next chart. And that's pretty much it. The brain part comes in when you have irregular movement, holidays/elections coming up, weekend tendencies, and how you'd approach those things, that a computer would have a very hard time consistently doing right.

[brooks85]

Do you still trade stocks and/or bet on sports?

Emotions shouldn't even be a factor. You should be running the same system regardless of how you feel. The ability to automate processes is essential in today's competitive markets, and is much more relevant to being a winner.

Manually trading is outdated in 2017.

As a side-note, the reason people can easily call sports betting a hobby is because sports are involved. But no one trades on other markets as a hobby, they trade for profit.

Sports betting isn't a hobby. Watching sports is a hobby. Giving money to sportsbooks, while watching sports, also seems to be a hobby. But any attempt at sports betting should always be professionally approached, unless you just feel like participating in sportsbook philanthropy.

you got it because that is key.

yes, I still trade and bet on sports. I don't spend nearly as much time as I used to on handicapping sports and the effects have shown in my poorer results. But when I was watching/researching nearly every football game, a lot of basketball and every mma fight it just wasn't a good use of time especially since the ceiling in sports betting is so low compared to other options. Now I just stick to systems for almost all of my bets and it works well enough.

[brooks85]

Charts mean nothing

If they did nobody would work

Anytime you enter a position you have 50% chance at time of trade of making profit

That is 100000000000000% fact

no, you have a 50% chance.

[jjgold]

you only here about the small winning group out of millions of people

If you want to lose everything trade forex

[BBMB]

Bots are more the norm in uber-fast daytrading (look up quant trading), which I do not do. An algorithm by loose definition, is nothing more than a set of rules that all need to be true before an action is taken. That's what I have. At 2pm PST, I look at the daily chart right as the daily candle is about to close, go through my algo, and decide to enter a trade, maintain a trade that's already on there, or do nothing and move to the next chart. And that's pretty much it. The brain part comes in when you have irregular movement, holidays/elections coming up, weekend tendencies, and how you'd approach those things, that a computer would have a very hard time consistently doing right.

Thanks, Quantitative trading is what I was referring to. This method is how sports betting is also approached by civilians nowadays, hence the sharpening of the markets over time.

The second bolded part is actually the best scenario to automate, imo. "Right" is as right as you write the script, which is then executed as consistently as possible.

yes, I still trade and bet on sports. I don't spend nearly as much time as I used to on handicapping sports and the effects have shown in my poorer results. But when I was watching/researching nearly every football game, a lot of basketball and every mma fight it just wasn't a good use of time especially since the ceiling in sports betting is so low compared to other options. Now I just stick to systems for almost all of my bets and it works well enough.

This is why quantitative trading is the most ideal way to trade.

Time is money, and if you're spending 16 hours a day to make 6 figures, it's not worth it. They say the best programmers are the laziest people. The same would apply to trading now that computers run the finance world.


JJ,
Most professional sports bettors don't even watch sports nowadays. And the best traders in all markets do some type of programming, unless they have someone else on the team that does.

This applies to a minority in the industry. Everyone else has major odds against them that only a small percentage of people are able to consistently beat. This is why you don't see many winners at all.

Add to that the fact that gambling in any way shape or form is taboo, and from adolescence all the great minds are steered in the direction of academia and far away from gambling. Sports betting is grouped in with casino gambling when they are completely different animals.

Over time, you're not hungry enough to put in the time it would take to master and efficiently operate in this profession when you're already a professional in another field, making a comfortable 6 figures, and have heard nothing but horror stories about gambling your whole life.


Anyone who tries to gamble is trying to get rich quick. If that mentality is a part of your character then it will be hard to profit in this business because it's very hard work. It's also a competitive industry, so you must always be updated with knowledge and you must always be upgrading your tools.

If you don't do all of that, you will lose money. If it's 2017 and you're still using pen and paper, if it hasn't happened already, eventually, you will lose money.

[Buffalo Nickle]

Sports trading mutual funds are not really possible because the size of the bets moves the lines. There is apparently a successful fund in the UK which bets largely on soccer. I forget the guys name but he made his fortune betting and I think has ownership in a soccer team. He employs an entire staff of analysts just like a Wall Street hedge fund. Probably more doable with a worldwide sport like soccer and outside the US where you have more ability to get money down.

There are people that make a living betting on sports but you reach a limit on how much you can bet and your number of outs. A lot of pro gamblers do use beards but also bet with locals to get more money in play and get access to weaker lines.

The reason sports gambling is potentially superior to Wall Street gambling is that it is not followed as much and less money can be made for the reasons I referenced. But if you can bet smaller market stuff like NCAA basketball, totals and halftimes and such, you can take advantage of an edge that does not exists in finance where supercomputers and very smart people are working 70 hours per week to gain an edge and then there is also all the insider trading.

There will always be a small number of people that can beat the line at sports gambling.

[Buffalo Nickle]

Another reason you can have an ability to beat the sports gambling market over Wall Street is the lack of data availability with sports. People that successfully gamble at sports build their own programs and acquire their own data. This is a very time consuming process and most of their time is spent doing so.

With Wall Street, you have all the data you want available to you and you can simply focus on the investing.

[Buffalo Nickle]

There are by the way a lot of sports gambling mutual funds. They are simply comprised of a smaller number of investors than an investing mutual fund. These are what the sportsbooks refer as "syndicates" and they spend a lot of time trying to keep them from beating them.

[Buffalo Nickle]

It is also possible to do very well running a sportsbook and it is quite easy to get started. You need no further proof than the amount of money that was accumulated by a rather clever fellow here with a sportsbook called 1Vice.

The problem with running a sportsbook is that you have to deal with every scamming MFer in the world that is just looking for a way to get money from you. You have to deal with wicked smart Eastern Europeans that have no real way to use their brain power so they sit around stealing people's money all over the world.

Then you have all the professional gamblers that will sit around waiting for you to post an off line and then slam you blindly. They will hit every weak line you have in the book which means you have to employ people for every single sport to stay seconds ahead of them.

And then you have all of the expenses that go into acquiring money via credit card and P2P. Just getting money in the door costs you a good chunk of the deposit and then you have to offer bonuses and such to stay with the competition.

You can just take losers but you have to find a new constant crop of losers each and every year because every time someone gets lucky and beats you, you cross them off the list and don't let them bet with you anymore. You have to do that because if you let just one really sharp guy in, he will wind up owning your whole book.