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I always compare the book's current lines to the LVSC opening line to measure line movement. LVSC opened this game at Red Sox -130.Originally posted by MonkeyF0ckerComment -
The LVSC send out is purely a recommendation. It does not mean that the books offer that line at open. Each book creates their own line, taking the LVSC send out into consideration. As far as openers go, you're better off looking at the M Resort lines or somewhere offshore such as Pinny or Cris.Comment -
Look what happened in this case. LVSC recommends Boston -130 and the Vegas books posted it at Boston -115. It looks like they were leaning towards Minnesota out of the gate, imho.Originally posted by MonkeyF0ckerComment -
I'm not sure what you're seeing from his release point data from last game...Originally posted by Chi_archieAttached FilesComment -
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I'm betting on Beckett in my daily fantasy contests, but am concerned for this reason.Originally posted by Chi_archie
Groundballs generally=good. Lower velocity also results in less strikeouts though, which is a legitimate concern.he never threw over 115 pitches last year, he has gone over that in each of his last 3 starts... 117, 120, 118... he is losing velocity resulting in alot more groundballs..... groundballs on the turf today in Minnesota= alot of singles.
Irrelevant according to every sabermetric study that's attempted to look at whether past success against a pitcher indicates future success for hitters.Minn current roster hits beckett to the tune of .333 with a .989 ops over their careerComment -
It really means nothing. The LVSC send out may be closer to the closing line in this case. The books here also take offshore lines and movement into consideration.Originally posted by fearlessComment -
Every MLB announcer harps on this stat as much as possible. "Jones has a 350 career average against Smith and Jones is due up next, it's big trouble for Smith."Originally posted by waiverwire
Announcers think that stat's important, managers think that stat's important and it holds up more often than not.Comment -
Generally, it is not a large enough sample size to have any statistical relevance. What is of vastly greater importance is how that hitter hits against pitchers with similar release points and against the various pitches that pitcher throws. I wouldn't take much of what TV commentators say with much more than a grain of salt.Comment -
Announcers and managers think that it's important. The research that's been conducted so far shows that it doesn't hold up AT ALL. If you take pairs of hitters of equal skill and always pick the one that has done better against a given pitcher in the past, they will do almost exactly as well as those that have done worse.Originally posted by fearless
That said, I do think that the research isn't complete. The main issue is that for individual hitter-pitcher matchups, the sample size is almost always too small to be meaningful. Probably the right approach is identifying hitting and pitching 'styles' that are particularly good (or bad) against each other. Lichtman and Tango did some research on this in 'The Book' with mixed results, but didn't thoroughly explain their results, and in my opinion it remains an area of study with a lot of potential.Comment -
What exactly do you think that someone inputs into a computer model to get a projection?Originally posted by Nicky Santoro
Player birthdates?Comment -
Twins +117Comment -
I prefer Twins +127 at Matchbook.
Seriously, MB is changing the entire industry as much as Pinnacle did 6 years ago.Comment -
but what are you betting for this game elihu? twins or boston?Comment -
Originally posted by pimikeFirst off, I see Beckett not what he used to be. Now he has a 5.00 ERA this year, yes he pitched well last outing, however he is worse this year on the road. He is beatable.
He has given up more hits than innings pitched on the road.
Now for the Twins 23 year old, Anthony Swarzak he is not anything great, but Boston has not seen him yet and this is an advantage to the young guy at home.
Also twins have a good record at home where Boston has a losing record on the road. The twins are hitting the ball with runners in scoring position.
Boston may win, but I see Beckett having a bad game again in this one.
I don't see the line to far off.
Good Luck and love your insights
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How so?Originally posted by Justin7Comment -
at -115 and +130, how about bothOriginally posted by Chi_archieComment -
I bought all the Boston -115 I could. I'm waiting until about 5 minutes before game time to play back some Minnesota leaving myself with what I want on Boston.Comment -
I don't know if I'd wait that long, Justin. I think you'll see a lot of buyback in this game.Comment -
Originally posted by Justin7
when you make a play like this, that is not a complete scalp, that you lean heavier on one side..... what determines the final #'s you arrive at J7? is it purely #'s or in this case or some cases do you like your original bet so much that you want to be heavier on that side, even if it leaves you at risk instead of locking in an automatic profit no matter what...Comment -
good question. Care if I hit this in my next "mailbox" video?Originally posted by Chi_archieComment -
Originally posted by Chi_archieComment -
It would depend on your perceived edge, archie.Comment -
Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker
yeah, after I posted and thought about it some more, I realized that your calculated edge/advantage would be come into play.
that would be great if you used it Justin.... bring some us player's talk addicts into some think tank thinking....Comment -
Interesting thread. wsex now has BOS @ -137.Comment -
Anyone know Boston's record in dome games in the last 5 years?Comment -
This thread is wayyy too intelligent for me. But I did put 4 units on MN. Just sat down to see them winning 1-0.
Yea me pro.Comment -
its all about the pitch count..........
Becket is about to implode in inning 3Comment -
I never get hung up on a line...just on who is going to win...Comment -
Originally posted by G's pks
you got to do both......
over the long haul, you gotta be beating the best number, beating the closer often..... and not laying un-necesary chalk... even for winners...
learn to love a good home dogComment -
Kind of chuckling a little over the people who have written off Swarzak after his major league debut (7 SO innings no less) as being worthless. The kid was a top 10 prospect (#6) in a good Twins organization coming into the season. I know we've all seen a young guy struggle over a season of minor league ball and still end up being a solid ML pitcher. I think if you look at his overall minor league numbers and his projected status as an organizational prospect, and the fact that the Twins have him in the rotation at 23 years old now (injury replacement or not) - he might not be a pile of hot garbage after all....despite whatever Baseball prospectus projects as his WHIP this year.Comment -
he has had nice pheripheal numbers coming up through the minors, that was part of my reasoning on this bet...... I like an unseen rookie, with poise, and good numbers in the minors that comes with some critical aclaim by B.A and suchComment -
Yep. I also like young talented pitchers facing a team for the first time. It's not just see ball, hit ball. It's tough to face someone you've never seen but on film. I didn't like him enough today to back the Twins, but my under looks promising.Originally posted by Chi_archieComment -
twins catcher mike redmond and twins manager ron gardenshire both ejected by umpire todd tichenor.
straight from mlb.comComment
