What am I missing? (MLB writeup)

[Bread]

Sox take lead. Damn my eyes!

[Chi_archie]

yeah it was a BS call... Sox guy never even touched the plate..... Gardenhire didn't even seem to really do too much to get tossed, it was his second time out to argue... I guess that was enough

[smitch124]

Starting up this Injuns game soon...

[tweek]

Nicky,

You know I used to be a linesmaker right? Opening lines don't mean shit. There are $20 bettors that spend more time than books do on openers. This is why I spend so much time on openers - it's much easier to outsmart Gomer Pyle than Warren Buffet, and Gomer is in charge of openers.

The next 1000 plays I make against openers will win. While this one might lose, I think I have the best of it. I just wish the market would confirm my belief like it does on MLB totals.

Hey Justin,

What exactly do you mean by openers? Is there a specific site that one should bet openers? Or, is it just generally the first available line from any given book?

[jellobiafra]

He was out. Twins got jobbed on that one.

Nothing cheap about Varitek's 2nd homer though. WOW!

[Justin7]

Hey Justin,

What exactly do you mean by openers? Is there a specific site that one should bet openers? Or, is it just generally the first available line from any given book?

the first ones you see. Greek and Cris come out first; Pinny an hour later. These numbers are soft.

The longer you wait, the tougher the numbers get.

[sweetjones55]

Nice pick Justin7. Any leans for tonight?

[Justin7]

Nice pick Justin7. Any leans for tonight?

11 plays for tomorrows games. 6 totals, and 1 side where I'll "take a stand".

[waiverwire]

he has had nice pheripheal numbers coming up through the minors, that was part of my reasoning on this bet...... I like an unseen rookie, with poise, and good numbers in the minors that comes with some critical aclaim by B.A and such

Those would be nice peripherals if they were in the majors. They are NOT nice perpherals in the minors. Swarzak may eventually be pretty good, but he isn't yet. His K/9 rate is too low and his BB/9 is too high. You need to take level of competition into account and make some major adjustments.

[The HG]

I bought all the Boston -115 I could. I'm waiting until about 5 minutes before game time to play back some Minnesota leaving myself with what I want on Boston.

You took ALL the Boston -115 you could?? At Matchbook? I used to do that until I got burned once when they had tech problems and cancelled one side of a game I had a scalp on. I had both sides at Match, they only cancelled one side - after the game was over, nevermind started - and the side I got to "keep" was the losing side. It was only pure luck that I didn't have more on that game, one side was actually an offer I made that only got matched a little - if the whole thing had gotten matched I would have been out a huge pct of my bankroll in the end, through no fault of my own. No bet I had was significantly off-market at the time, aside from the standard slightly better lines you often get at exchanges. You aren't afraid of that happening? Do you have some special deal with them where they guarantee that won't happen to you? I would love to start doing that again but that episode - as well as a few other similar ones that were close calls - scared me way away. Now I never have any bet at Match that I wouldn't be comfortable having outstanding.