Orlando for series incredibly low

[SBR Lou]

-237 at Pinny

Teams up 3-1 win 96% of the time in NBA playoffs, plus Orlando has another home game.

[WileOut]

Cavs should win game 5 at home. So it would come down to whether Orlando can win game 6 at their place. Because if they don't the entire league will demand Lebron in the next round. Refs will be at an all time foul calling pace on the Magic if it goes to game 7.

They may even summon in the Dicky Beeeeeeeeee for a game 7 (if necessary).

[SBR Lou]

That all sounds well and good, but it's hard to ignore that without a miracle 3pt shot at the buzzer, this series would be 4-0 right now.

I don't know that there's enough turnaround time for the Cavs to somehow find an answer for the pick & roll and all these guys getting wide open for 3.

[WileOut]

Very true. But 3 games could have gone either way. It could easily be 3-1 Cavs now too.

But you are right, the -237 seems a bit low.

[fearless]

That all sounds well and good, but it's hard to ignore that without a miracle 3pt shot at the buzzer, this series would be 4-0 right now.

I don't know that there's enough turnaround time for the Cavs to somehow find an answer for the pick & roll and all these guys getting wide open for 3.

The line is right on the money, I called it myself before I heard about the Pinny line:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/187528-cavs-about-200-dogs-here-series.html

[MonkeyF0cker]

-237 at Pinny

Teams up 3-1 win 96% of the time in NBA playoffs, plus Orlando has another home game.

While that may be the past results, it has nothing to do with the way the line is derived. The line is actually dead on. The Cavs have to win all three remaining games. If you take the market ML valuations of each game, the Cavs are (currently) 79.7%, ~47%, and ~80% to win in game 5, 6, and 7 respectively. This yields approximately a 29.97% chance to win the series. (You can simply take the product of all probabilities as this is the only combination that will give them a win in the series.) And this equates to a fair value line of +233.67. In other words, the line is right where it should be.

[Justin7]

I was going to reply, but MonkeyFocker nailed it.

[pavyracer]

Here is what I would do if I was you. Bet the Magic series at -237 and Cavs series at +215 equal amounts. Then bet the ML on every single game from now on for the Cavs.

[BrandonLaz]

Here is what I would do if I was you. Bet the Magic series at -237 and Cavs series at +215 equal amounts. Then bet the ML on every single game from now on for the Cavs.

How would that be profitable at all? I am trying to think of a way for it to be unless the Cavs win 3 straight games you are SOL. If you are banking on that then you might as well cut out the Magic series play.

[alukk]

-237 at Pinny

Teams up 3-1 win 96% of the time in NBA playoffs, plus Orlando has another home game.

that means that cavs should win tomorrow. just my opinioon

[NBA Hero]

but can they cover

[reno cool]

Certainly seems like a bad line. But, yeah that's because all the individual game lines seem bad too. Hard to believe Cleveland is a vastly superior team after watching first 4 games.

[SBR Lou]

While that may be the past results, it has nothing to do with the way the line is derived. The line is actually dead on. The Cavs have to win all three remaining games. If you take the market ML valuations of each game, the Cavs are (currently) 79.7%, ~47%, and ~80% to win in game 5, 6, and 7 respectively. This yields approximately a 29.97% chance to win the series. (You can simply take the product of all probabilities as this is the only combination that will give them a win in the series.) And this equates to a fair value line of +233.67. In other words, the line is right where it should be.

Right, and that all makes sense if you believe these numbers are fair. Personally, I believe the market is wrong and has been throughout this series. Orlando poses match-up hell with Cleveland, this series was a buzzer beater away from being over already. To lay only -2xx for Orlando to win 1/3 seems awfully generous. Cleveland is most certainly overvalued at home and on the road against the Magic.

[hoopster42]

this series could just as easily be 3-1 cleveland as it is currently sitting at 3-1 orlando. gms 1, 2 & 4 came down to the final seconds.

[SBR Lou]

this series could just as easily be 3-1 cleveland as it is currently sitting at 3-1 orlando. gms 1, 2 & 4 came down to the final seconds.

Throw regular season records and stats out the window, what it comes down to is the fact that Orlando has more talented roleplayers and a deeper bench.

Cleveland has shown that they have no answer for the multiple 3pt threats and containing Howard, it's not a matter of Orlando hitting "lucky" shots from 3, the shots are for the most part uncontested.

[durito]

Crazyl > Market

[SBR Lou]

Crazyl > Market

You can believe that Cleveland should be favored by -700 in the series if it was played 985,000 times all you like, but I don't.

[peterblades]

crazylou couldn agee more with you you really seem to know basketball

[hoopster42]

Throw regular season records and stats out the window, what it comes down to is the fact that Orlando has more talented roleplayers and a deeper bench.

Cleveland has shown that they have no answer for the multiple 3pt threats and containing Howard, it's not a matter of Orlando hitting "lucky" shots from 3, the shots are for the most part uncontested.

i cannot argue with you on these pts, Sir. the cleveland defensive effort has been good in terms of wanting to defend but they just end up in the wrong spots or maybe it's just great orlando offense in finding the open man, i think its a combo of both probably.

[reno cool]

Crazyl > Market

If you're a winning player you have to be.

[durito]

If you're a winning player you have to be.

Ah, no.

[RogueJuror]

Crazyl > Market

[milwaukee mike]

i also think this line is dead on, based on those money lines of 80%, 50%, and 80% roughly that's 32% as explained above.

and i think that's roughly cleveland's chances of winning the series. yes it's 96% for teams up 3-1 but almost always the team up 3-1 isn't a 7.5 point dog in games 5 and 7 and a pick em in game 6.

[reno cool]

Any time you have an opinion on a bet, you're saying you're better than the market.

I don't doubt that you can exploit other angles.

[SexyMit]

I think its low cause when Cleveland wins tomorrow it will be back to almost a pick even though they are still down 3-1. I'm not sure what is going on here but I would be very cautious of the prices right now.

[RonPaul2008]

80% to win next game and 47 at Orlando? If that's the case, it looks to me like the lines have not adjusted for reality.

While that may be the past results, it has nothing to do with the way the line is derived. The line is actually dead on. The Cavs have to win all three remaining games. If you take the market ML valuations of each game, the Cavs are (currently) 79.7%, ~47%, and ~80% to win in game 5, 6, and 7 respectively. This yields approximately a 29.97% chance to win the series. (You can simply take the product of all probabilities as this is the only combination that will give them a win in the series.) And this equates to a fair value line of +233.67. In other words, the line is right where it should be.

[durito]

80% to win next game and 47 at Orlando? If that's the case, it looks to me like the lines have not adjusted for reality.

then unload your life savings on orlando +375 tomorrow night

[RonPaul2008]

Might put a little on +8.

then unload your life savings on orlando +375 tomorrow night

[reno cool]

wait, there's still the matter of the nuggets game I have to unload my life savings on first.

[SBR Lou]

wait, there's still the matter of the nuggets game I have to unload my life savings on first.

You takin' Denver tonight, reno?

[SBR Lou]

and i think that's roughly cleveland's chances of winning the series. yes it's 96% for teams up 3-1 but almost always the team up 3-1 isn't a 7.5 point dog in games 5 and 7 and a pick em in game 6.

I guess the question I'm asking is- - why is Cleveland giving 7.5 or 8 at home to a team that's so clearly evenly matched (and perhaps across the board better aside from Lebron) and a mere PK on the road against a team thats kicked the daylights out of them at home this season?

[reno cool]

yeah, but don't quote me on it.

[SBR Lou]

yeah, but don't quote me on it.

Darn, was just getting ready to make that my signature.

[reno cool]

I guess the question I'm asking is- - why is Cleveland giving 7.5 or 8 at home to a team that's so clearly evenly matched (and perhaps across the board better aside from Lebron) and a mere PK on the road against a team that's kicked the daylights out of them at home this season?

you're right, it seems wrong. Problem is we know there's a reason. Until we can figure out what that reason may be and why it's likely flawed, we can't be too happy with our pick.

[durito]

The better question is why is pinnacle taking $50,000 bets on a 6 cent line on these games?