Orlando for series incredibly low

[SBR Lou]

The better question is why is pinnacle taking $50,000 bets on a 6 cent line on these games?

Maybe because it's far closer to a coin-flip than these gaudy odds on Cleveland would suggest?

[reno cool]

Maybe, they figure the public's so high on Lebron, they don't believe Clev can ultimately lose. It'd be good to know where the $ going.
I would think the opposite though. The public wouldn't lay points on a team that's been outplayed.

[SBR Lou]

Maybe, they figure the public's so high on Lebron, they don't believe Clev can ultimately lose. It'd be good to know where the $ going.
I would think the opposite though. The public wouldn't lay points on a team that's been outplayed.

Fair point.

[cockblocker]

this series could just as easily be 3-1 cleveland as it is currently sitting at 3-1 orlando. gms 1, 2 & 4 came down to the final seconds.

If your watching the games. You can see the Cavs are the team that is lucky these games are even that that close. No way in hell could they be up 3-1.

[hoopster42]

If your watching the games. You can see the Cavs are the team that is lucky these games are even that that close. No way in hell could they be up 3-1.

orlando shooting the lights out from 3 compared to cleveland but yeah cleve is the lucky one

[losturmarbles]

-237 at Pinny

Teams up 3-1 win 96% of the time in NBA playoffs, plus Orlando has another home game.

the books must be telegraphing a cavs win again

[Mac4Lyfe]

Throw regular season records and stats out the window, what it comes down to is the fact that Orlando has more talented roleplayers and a deeper bench.

Cleveland has shown that they have no answer for the multiple 3pt threats and containing Howard, it's not a matter of Orlando hitting "lucky" shots from 3, the shots are for the most part uncontested.

Orlando set illegal picks all day long and the refs haven't called one yet. It's very easy to get open shot's when Howard is pushing guys to the floor, sticking his feet out to trip and leg whip guys. Look at last night. Cleveland should have had the long rebound with 6.7 seconds left. Howard throws 2 guys to the ground then runs over Delonte West and no foul called. Then on the next play, Howard leg whips Wallace giving Rashard Lewis a wide open 3. Horrible, pathetic...

[reno cool]

If James misses the 2nd free throw (that was bouncing around) at end of regulation Cavs win. Did you notice the Cleveland player under the basket, practically had his hand on the ball.

[hoopster42]

If James misses the 2nd free throw (that was bouncing around) at end of regulation Cavs win. Did you notice the Cleveland player under the basket, practically had his hand on the ball.

yes, i noticed, and it was varejao, he would have been called for basket interference if his hand was any closer, lol. if anything, he would have to pull his hand back then forward but would have more likely gotten the rebound and been fouled going back up. then he needs to hit 1 FT to tie and 2 to win. so no, i don't think the cavs automatically win if the FT misses.

[flyingillini]

All this ranting means absolutely nothing, shoulda coulda woulda....

All Praise To Be Allah

[SexyMit]

Orlando set illegal picks all day long and the refs haven't called one yet. It's very easy to get open shot's when Howard is pushing guys to the floor, sticking his feet out to trip and leg whip guys. Look at last night. Cleveland should have had the long rebound with 6.7 seconds left. Howard throws 2 guys to the ground then runs over Delonte West and no foul called. Then on the next play, Howard leg whips Wallace giving Rashard Lewis a wide open 3. Horrible, pathetic...

I totally agree. Especially that Dwight camps under the goal the whole night and doesn't get called for 3 second anything!

[hoopster42]

Orlando set illegal picks all day long and the refs haven't called one yet. It's very easy to get open shot's when Howard is pushing guys to the floor, sticking his feet out to trip and leg whip guys. Look at last night. Cleveland should have had the long rebound with 6.7 seconds left. Howard throws 2 guys to the ground then runs over Delonte West and no foul called. Then on the next play, Howard leg whips Wallace giving Rashard Lewis a wide open 3. Horrible, pathetic...

i have a huge rooting interest in the cavs and this is what i believed when i watched it, but when i rewound it a few times and watched again, howard did not touch west and in fact it was the other way around, west pushed off howard with this right arm to a) help him get closer to the loose ball, and b) to stop howard from getting to it

take my word for it bud

[BCaldwell32]

While that may be the past results, it has nothing to do with the way the line is derived. The line is actually dead on. The Cavs have to win all three remaining games. If you take the market ML valuations of each game, the Cavs are (currently) 79.7%, ~47%, and ~80% to win in game 5, 6, and 7 respectively. This yields approximately a 29.97% chance to win the series. (You can simply take the product of all probabilities as this is the only combination that will give them a win in the series.) And this equates to a fair value line of +233.67. In other words, the line is right where it should be.

The line is way off, and the reason is because Orlando is plain and simple the better team. The lines makers have to make Cleveland 9 point favorites in games 1 and 2 and now 7.5 in game 5 only because they know the idiotic public is all over Lebron James. They make the lines higher so that they will get action on both sides and clean up on the juice. The books are not looking for one sided action, they would love for every game that is ever played to have 50-50 on both sides. I have laughed my way to the bank every game against Orlando looking at the inflated lines for the overrated all year Cleveland Cavaliers. They are now 3-6 this year against the top teams in the league (Lakers, Orlando and Celtics). Orlando should have been 4.5 to 6 point dogs tops in games 1 and 2 and then like 4 or 5 point favorites in games 3 and 4, these lines have been a joke and that is why Orlando is 4-0 ATS in the series. The lines are never set as true odds for a team to win a game, that can never happen because the oddsmakers have the public to think about and have to predict who they will bet based on a number of variables. I agree that the 96% winning clip for teams up 3-1 has nothing to do with this series, but I believe Cleveland has at best a 15-20% chance of winning this series considering the true lines for games 5,6 and 7 should be Cle 5, Orl -4.5 and then Cle-6 respectively.

[BCaldwell32]

orlando shooting the lights out from 3 compared to cleveland but yeah cleve is the lucky one

They won game 3 only making 6 3's and of course they are shooting lights out, they come off the pick and roll and have wide open shots. I can shoot 40% from 3 if I'm wide open everytime and these are the best shooters on the planet pretty much. Cleveland is shooting awful because Orlando is playing great defense and contesting everything. Cleveland is up against a better team and they are lucky that they haven't been blown out because Orlando has those awful cold spells where they do not score for like 5 or 6 minutes in almost every game.

[fearless]

The line is way off, and the reason is because Orlando is plain and simple the better team. The lines makers have to make Cleveland 9 point favorites in games 1 and 2 and now 7.5 in game 5 only because they know the idiotic public is all over Lebron James. They make the lines higher so that they will get action on both sides and clean up on the juice. The books are not looking for one sided action, they would love for every game that is ever played to have 50-50 on both sides. I have laughed my way to the bank every game against Orlando looking at the inflated lines for the overrated all year Cleveland Cavaliers. They are now 3-6 this year against the top teams in the league (Lakers, Orlando and Celtics). Orlando should have been 4.5 to 6 point dogs tops in games 1 and 2 and then like 4 or 5 point favorites in games 3 and 4, these lines have been a joke and that is why Orlando is 4-0 ATS in the series. The lines are never set as true odds for a team to win a game, that can never happen because the oddsmakers have the public to think about and have to predict who they will bet based on a number of variables. I agree that the 96% winning clip for teams up 3-1 has nothing to do with this series, but I believe Cleveland has at best a 15-20% chance of winning this series considering the true lines for games 5,6 and 7 should be Cle 5, Orl -4.5 and then Cle-6 respectively.

This guy had the same idea you do and he didn't last too long:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/125670-bet-against-cavs-rest-season.html?highlight=fading+cavs

[topcat]

If your watching the games. You can see the Cavs are the team that is lucky these games are even that that close. No way in hell could they be up 3-1.

orlando could have swept cleveland if it hadnt been for a one second miracle shoot.cleveland just plays like a team that is out classed.i believe cleveland will win the next game,but saying that i dont see the cavs winning in orlando.to much turk,lewis,and dwight.

[Jerry Seinfeld]

IMO it is low. I know how it is calculated and although it makes sense, Orlando has been one of the best covering teams all year in terms of value.

Saying you are 70% to win one out of three games against a team you are 5-2 against including regular season, seems quite off to me.

Orlando +7.5 seems out of this world to me. That would have covered easily in every game played between the two this year. The closest being a four point win for Cleveland during the regular season. Seems so trappy its scary. But I don't know if I can help myself. GL guys with your picks.

[NBA Hero]

at least orl series is still available to lessen the cavs lose

[Shark79]

Cavs in game 7.

[BCaldwell32]

This guy had the same idea you do and he didn't last too long:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...ht=fading+cavs

Cleveland can torture and destroy the weak ass teams of the NBA and cover 100 point spreads all they want, point is that when they play the other elite teams in the league they look very average at best and just a one man team.

[BCaldwell32]

Cavs in game 7.

[Shark79]

[SBR Lou]

Cleveland can torture and destroy the weak ass teams of the NBA and cover 100 point spreads all they want, point is that when they play the other elite teams in the league they look very average at best and just a one man team.

I think Cleveland had an overinflated view of themselves after beating up on Detroit and Atlanta. Listening to some players talk in interviews about this Orlando series, you get the feeling that they never thought they could be in this position down 1-3. Obviously any good team will not expect to be, but Cleveland made it sound like winning was almost a foregone conclusion to them, as if Orlando wouldn't push them to their limit.

[pavyracer]

Cavs will win the next three games. They are due. They have two home games and only one road game to achieve this which is not that hard to do.

[lakerboy]

Cavs will win the next three games. They are due. They have two home games and only one road game to achieve this which is not that hard to do.

i gotta give it to you bro you know how to get attention

[SBR Lou]

If I were Mike Brown, I would ease up on defending Howard. Sounds illogical but, I think although Orlando has an overwhelming edge on the inside, I don't know that Cleveland has any answer anyway so I'd focus the meat of my lineup on the perimeter and try to contest every shot.

I would also stop fouling Howard so much, because he's in a rhythm at the line and he will often take off balance or ill advised shots near the rim anyway as if he's Tim Duncan. When he's gonna dunk, nobody can stop him anyway, just stick one guy on him at all times and let everyone else contest the 3pt shots. Orlando won't win in Cleveland without being wide open from 3ptland 35 times.

[hoopster42]

Cavs will win the next three games. They are due. They have two home games and only one road game to achieve this which is not that hard to do.

i agree with this. cleveland has not played a great gm yet let alone a very good one, yet they have taken 3 of the 4 gms down to the final shot and won 1 of them. i think they get the huge win tonight, go down to orlando and win, and then gm 7 is a done deal for them before it even tips off

[lakerboy]

i agree with this. cleveland has not played a great gm yet let alone a very good one, yet they have taken 3 of the 4 gms down to the final shot and won 1 of them. i think they get the huge win tonight, go down to orlando and win, and then gm 7 is a done deal for them before it even tips off

dont you wish life was that easy. cleveland is disgusting to watch they are a completely useless regular season team that beat up on shitty teams all year long and now they are getting their just desserts. the league needs good teams in the finals not teams with running backs playing in their league. besides if you think about it the lakers are destined to get home court in the final after all that hoopla about the cavs having home court. Ron Jeremy and his boys are WAY better than cleveland and they will win the series.

[reno cool]

it ends tonight

[SBR Lou]

it ends tonight

[Shark79]

2 more games to go ... next game goes into OT ... with a miracle shot ... CAVS win it ... and thats the end of Orlando.

[lakerboy]

bro this might haunt you- i hope not though

[Shark79]