About to penetrating explode

Foxx · 11-14-16, 09:28 PM

I feel your pain man. The gambling gods are cruel and lady luck is a bitch.

TPowell · 11-14-16, 09:29 PM

Say what you want about the BS "have to to pick the right side" but you've made a dumb bet when you take 3 and the line closes at 5. Just mind boggling how bad this season has started. Unless I'm the only one moving these lines with my $100 wagers, some other people have to be getting destroyed as well

t-wizzle · 11-14-16, 09:30 PM

Were they sharp line moves or public money moves?

Early season college lines I tend to wait and then pounce when I think the market has over-adjusted.

Otters27 · 11-14-16, 09:30 PM

hang in there Powell

RudyRuetigger · 11-14-16, 09:32 PM

good bets

its called variance

MinnesotaFats · 11-14-16, 09:32 PM

Would it be better to bet halftime lines compared to opening lines? I.E. if the heavy fav is underperforming at half then pound it?

I've had decent results with that strategy as a band aid in several sports, but it's a grind.

Rich Boy · 11-14-16, 09:33 PM

Damn thats tough Powell, ive been there brother.

Gambling gods giveth and taketh away at any time, but it always evens out... Always!

Know that you have the edge on your side and eventually it will come through.

t-wizzle · 11-14-16, 09:33 PM

Good example will be tomorrow.

Watch Oregon get bet up to 3. I have a feeling Baylor is the right side there though.

TPowell · 11-14-16, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

Good example will be tomorrow.

Watch Oregon get bet up to 3. I have a feeling Baylor is the right side there though.

I think so as well. The star Brooks probably won't play for Oregon and even if he was I only made Oregon -1 or so. Thought about playing Baylor but I couldn't stomach it

lakerboy · 11-14-16, 09:35 PM

NCAA hoops waste of time.

Chi_archie · 11-14-16, 09:36 PM

Not enough info this early in the year to cap 17-21 year olds properly

too many variables that we can't get info on at this point

variance will even ou though

TPowell · 11-14-16, 09:36 PM

To be honest, I'm probably going to start doubling up tomorrow (well for Wed since I'm betting openers almost exclusively)

unde0087 · 11-14-16, 11:37 PM

Why so many plays?

chico2663 · 11-15-16, 12:01 AM

wait later to bet. unless your usinga book

Cuse0323 · 11-15-16, 12:06 AM

'Cause you think that you are better than you are.

killawookie · 11-15-16, 06:22 AM

It's completely about picking the correct sides. Just because a line is established doesn't make it right. You have to create your own lines and compare value towards the odds makers. Money moved your lines.. and most money is lost money in this business.

sandos139 · 11-15-16, 07:01 AM

Was a horrible weekend pal, never seen so many upsets and big ML go down. It happens to the best. Take the good with the bad. BOL

TPowell · 11-15-16, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by killawookie

It's completely about picking the correct sides. Just because a line is established doesn't make it right. You have to create your own lines and compare value towards the odds makers. Money moved your lines.. and most money is lost money in this business.

So how do you think I know these lines are off? I have ratings for every team. That is why I'm able to get good lines early before they move. I don't believe most money in college basketball is lost money especially this early in the season

jjgold · 11-15-16, 08:48 AM

sports betting brutal

Beating closers seem to not matter anymore

DOM_Toretto · 11-15-16, 09:24 AM

Hang in there, I had my worst losing weekend in a couple years and am holding probably the worst cbb record this season so far on all of SBR lol

TPowell · 11-15-16, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by DOM_Toretto

Hang in there, I had my worst losing weekend in a couple years and am holding probably the worst cbb record this season so far on all of SBR lol

no shot lol, I went 2-8 yesterday. 17-25 for the year. Some good news I suppose

Creighton +3 (line is currently Creighton -1)
Southern Miss +19.5 (line is currently Southern Miss +17.5)
San Jose State +2.5 (line is currently San Jose State -3)
MTSU -5.5 (line is currently MTSU -8)
La Salle -13 (line is currently La Salle -15.5
Kansas State -13.5 (line is currently -13.5/-14

DOM_Toretto · 11-15-16, 10:41 AM

Nice job beating the lines. Can I ask why Creighton? Is it a line/situation play? Cuz I don't see the matchup favoring the jays. If they don't get out in transition it screws their game up.

Sort of similar to oregon at baylor. Spread and location favors home teams but id have oregon and Wiscy as 8-10 point favs in neutral sites.

Sam Odom · 11-15-16, 10:41 AM

No one said it would be easy...

However , Sammy feels your pain

TPowell · 11-15-16, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by DOM_Toretto

Nice job beating the lines. Can I ask why Creighton? Is it a line/situation play? Cuz I don't see the matchup favoring the jays. If they don't get out in transition it screws their game up.

Sort of similar to oregon at baylor. Spread and location favors home teams but id have oregon and Wiscy as 8-10 point favs in neutral sites.

Def just a normal line play. I have Wisconsin as an 88.5 and Creighton as an 87. Have to remember Creighton has 3 starters back plus landed a couple instant impact grad transfers and a top 50 FR. For Baylor, I have them an 86.5 and Oregon a 92. With everybody healthy, that would make Oregon -1.5 the line. Without their star, it gets dicey though. I would call it a PK or maybe even Baylor as the favorite this early in the year with a key injury like that.

lonegambler23 · 11-15-16, 11:20 AM

slowwwww down man. 40 games in 4 days. thats your problem

TPowell · 11-15-16, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by lonegambler23

slowwwww down man. 40 games in 4 days. thats your problem

why? I saw value in those lines and I made plays. If I see a line off by 3 points or more, I'm pouncing. The vast majority of the time the line moves my way. The teams just don't play it out

astro61200 · 11-15-16, 12:07 PM

Oh, yeah CBB and NBA started.. should probably get on betting on those

RonPaul2008 · 11-15-16, 12:14 PM

It's called variance and all professionals have experienced similar.

KVB · 11-15-16, 12:14 PM

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the OP is not at all getting the actual value he thinks he's getting when so may teams haven't played yet, and it isn't getting much better after just one game.

Sometimes people look at a game and think there is value without any real market information to support it. These people don't really understand value...they like to gamble.

It becomes very subjective. I think the OP is trying to avoid this but doesn't realize how difficult that is so early in the season. The numbers do not exist to purport the claimed value at this point in the season.

They just don't and whether he know's it or not, the OP's frustration, along with his posts, are evidence of that.

My suggestion would be to try to get a few games under the belt, not before betting necessarily, but certainly before trying to claim so much market value.

RonPaul2008 · 11-15-16, 12:17 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

sports betting brutal

Beating closers seem to not matter anymore

This has got to be the dumbest thing I have ever heard,

No coincidences · 11-15-16, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

sports betting brutal

Beating closers seem to not matter anymore

Hasn't in a long time. It's all a bunch of bullshit that degenerates say to make themselves feel better for losing their bankrolls.

No coincidences · 11-15-16, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by RonPaul2008

This has got to be the dumbest thing I have ever heard,

He's right. It only means you lose less money on dead plays where you're proud of yourself for BTCL.

Louisvillekid1 · 11-15-16, 02:14 PM

Buy back and arb/free roll

lakerboy · 11-15-16, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

He's right. It only means you lose less money on dead plays where you're proud of yourself for BTCL.

You fading the line move and profiting?