About to penetrating explode

[TPowell]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the OP is not at all getting the actual value he thinks he's getting when so may teams haven't played yet, and it isn't getting much better after just one game.

Sometimes people look at a game and think there is value without any real market information to support it. These people don't really understand value...they like to gamble.

It becomes very subjective. I think the OP is trying to avoid this but doesn't realize how difficult that is so early in the season. The numbers do not exist to purport the claimed value at this point in the season.

They just don't and whether he know's it or not, the OP's frustration, along with his posts, are evidence of that.

My suggestion would be to try to get a few games under the belt, not before betting necessarily, but certainly before trying to claim so much market value.

Market value isn't subjective. When the line moves your way, you have value. Pretty simple. Doesn't matter if its 1 game in or 20.

[TPowell]

Hasn't in a long time. It's all a bunch of bullshit that degenerates say to make themselves feel better for losing their bankrolls.

Good luck with that attitude. You must think this game is ridiculously easy and the market is way off base a lot

[KVB]

Market value isn't subjective. When the line moves your way, you have value. Pretty simple. Doesn't matter if its 1 game in or 20.

Exactly, it isn't subjective. I can be seen differently in the same game because their are many ways to handicap but so many treat it subjectively.

You may be doing the same and not know it. I'm not saying you can't find good bets early in the season but you are claiming to find value when their is no market to present it.

A line move on the first or second game of the season is not as "sharp" as many make it out to be. The sharper forecasters are not even in the market yet. That's why it appears easier to beat and less efficient.

The truth is, you very likely have no current dynamic statistic to put into a forecast in order to measure market value. I say very likely because there are year to year factors that can be implemented. But I say you don't have it because there is no precedent. There have been no games yet.

You may appear to be ahead of the market in your plays, but it also appears that the market has been one step ahead of you the whole time.

The numbers may not be subjective, but the choice of metrics to use is subjective. Again, the line moving your way on the first and second game of the season has little meaning, and may only offer the appearance of value.

From what I hear you're saying you have a long term edge over the college basketball markets in the first two games of the season and are justifying it by the movement of the market during these first two games.

C'mon Powell, you've made a shitload of bets in the first few days of NCAA hoops and you're down. Is it really a set of bad beats? I suspect you're way ahead of the market on numbers because the market is weak, not sharp.

While there are big players taking advantage of the new season, the real money hasn't hit yet.

You have to know that.

[Cuse0323]

Hasn't in a long time. It's all a bunch of bullshit that degenerates say to make themselves feel better for losing their bankrolls.

Finally, we can agree. I had a great weekend. Mainly because I picked who I thought would win, and didn't look a second at line movements. Value is one thing, but in the end it's about winning.

Spending less, to no time thinking, starring at lines, and looking for opinions from others has been very profitable for me this year.

[RudyRuetigger]

yea getting right side of line moves dont matter



all you would have to do is start playing ML and get instant wins before tip

[Ra77er]

People are ripping off your work and creating the appearance of closing line value, while the sharks are eating up your efforts. I assume you really do create your own number and hopefully not ripping someone else off either way the "weak" market as KVB said is certainly playing with you.

My advice is to slow down and let the game come to you. Stop being an originator, cash out and lurk like the rest of em. I don't have this on authority but I'm sure the second you make a play online it's not a secret to anyone that wants to know.

The gambling gods as it were, tend to be cruel and judgmental granting wishes only to those they deem worthy. I wish you good fortune TP, if it were up to me you get 30 units this season and stay positive unless you are playing Syracuse!!

[TPowell]

People are ripping off your work and creating the appearance of closing line value, while the sharks are eating up your efforts. I assume you really do create your own number and hopefully not ripping someone else off either way the "weak" market as KVB said is certainly playing with you.

My advice is to slow down and let the game come to you. Stop being an originator, cash out and lurk like the rest of em. I don't have this on authority but I'm sure the second you make a play online it's not a secret to anyone that wants to know.

The gambling gods as it were, tend to be cruel and judgmental granting wishes only to those they deem worthy. I wish you good fortune TP, if it were up to me you get 30 units this season and stay positive unless you are playing Syracuse!!

If people are ripping my work and moving line, I want a ton of rebates at books worldwide

[Ra77er]

Well books are certainly not in the habit of giving anything to anyone so I wouldn't hold your breath. Hell 5d should ship me a truck and a vacation by now. I am not saying you alone or specifically with the lines, but several others that have similar numbers to yours at this point in the season.

I like Boston tonight am I the only person, or the first person ever to like Boston? No but if I am visible then I may gain some traction. Who knows maybe you win 10 in a row and the world is your oyster or you lose 10 in a row and people enjoy watching and creating drama instead of helping a "loser" out. It's a sick game.

Soon as you start straying from your numbers or are busto, they will play out as you expected. You fade yourself and you had a winner all along, you tail someone and lose, you pass on a good tip and it hits! Maybe tenacity wins out, maybe you can profile yourself better than books and take advantage...who knows, I think sometimes the universe just loves us for a time. I am one voice, uneducated, and highly medicated so take that information as you will.

[TPowell]

Another great start. La Salle -13, closes 15.5 and not even close to a cover.

[TPowell]

You CAN NOT penetrating win with these breaks. It doesn't penetrating matter if your god damn Billy Walters betting week old stale penetrating lines with the kid on the god damn penetrating corner. Finally get the worst of it with KState -13.5 and it closes -12.5. Guess what happens?

0:43		Zach Pirog Defensive Rebound.	62 - 79
0:36		Daniel Norl made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by KJ Robinson.	65 - 79
0:25		Brian Patrick missed Three Point Jumper.	65 - 79
0:25		Pierson McAtee Offensive Rebound.	65 - 79
0:10		Mason Schoen missed Three Point Jumper.	65 - 79
0:10		Brian Patrick Offensive Rebound.	65 - 79
0:07		Brian Patrick made Two Point Tip Shot.	65 - 81
0:00		Alex Allbery made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Kyler Erickson.	68 - 81
0:00		End of Game	68 - 81

[Regul8er]

Stick at it bud....things will turn in your favor before you know it.

[TPowell]

Stick at it bud....things will turn in your favor before you know it.

thanks pal

[Regul8er]

Sure.......I know it sucks getting the season off to a rough start, but if you continue beating the closer, things will work themselves out.
Keep poundin!

[slapshot]

this is an advice you probably don't want to listen to.....bet moneylines only.
teams play to win the game....not to cover the spread.

betting spreads makes outcomes even more random than what they are straight up.