JayRow's World Famous Hockey Picks

[Flea Hotel]

Some of you guys should google "bankroll management".

[Flea Hotel]

If everyone did that, how would the books make money. Remember, while some of us are here to make some money, most are here to gamble and can't and won't stop till it's all gone. If you're up a unit at the end of the season, you're a winner. Great advice but that's like telling an alcoholic to stop after two beer.

Stick with us man, guarantee you'll be profiting by June, just some advice:

Don't change units till next season, if it's $10 then it's $10, if it's 1k then it's 1k, check the thread around 5/6pm EST, play the picks and let it roll, don't even have to watch, results will be the same, and again:

Discipline is key in this game! Discipline is freedom.

[JayRow]

capitals -145

predators -120

Bruins +125

penguins/devils u5.5 -120

islandwes/capitals u5 +135

Not much for commentary right now, just results. I did some good researching and testing over the past few days and expect good results. Hopefully these scorching hot teams cool down. This is approaching unprecedented territory

[Flea Hotel]

BOL on all your picks except the Preds Jay-Ro!

capitals -145

predators -120

Bruins +125

penguins/devils u5.5 -120

islandwes/capitals u5 +135

Not much for commentary right now, just results. I did some good researching and testing over the past few days and expect good results. Hopefully these scorching hot teams cool down. This is approaching unprecedented territory

[vividjohn45]

capitals -145

predators -120

Bruins +125

penguins/devils u5.5 -120

islandwes/capitals u5 +135

Not much for commentary right now, just results. I did some good researching and testing over the past few days and expect good results. Hopefully these scorching hot teams cool down. This is approaching unprecedented territory

How you getting bruins +125. When b.jx are -124. At noon?. Also. Yes. B.jax and wild are on dbl digit win streaks. Nfl had 2 eight game streaks phizz out this weekend. Clevelend ats. And detroit unders. So you mite hit on at least one of the opposite streak wagers. Last nite nba portland ended a 6 game ats losing streak. Maybe nhl end some streaks today

[vividjohn45]

Good luck. I have to stay with b.jx and minny tonite though. Those 2 teams have helped me recover nhl losses last month. So i gotta stay with them for now.

[crackerjack]

Why are you still betting unders? They almost never hit for you...

[JayRow]

Yesterday: 0-5; -5.85 units
Season: 78-73; +9.69 units

That freaking blew. Right out of the gate and a lot of hard work over Christmas break an 0-5 night. Here comes self doubt. Here comes pundits. Here comes a lot of negativity. I will persevere and remain the course.

Today's Play:

Canadians -105 2 units

[franknikki1]

Nobody's paying you to study this shit and share your picks. Bad night that's all it was. Stay strong JayRow and keep doing your thing. You've won many nights. thanks for the work.

[JayRow]

Why are you still betting unders? They almost never hit for you...

Because a sample size of 1/3 of a season isn't long enough to make a decision like that when you're working with Years and Years of data. Thanks for the input though.

[sedwards86]

No negativity here. Good cappers, like yourself, bounce back after bad nights. My first thought after last night was to definitely tail your pick tonight. I won't lie, I am reluctant to because Montreal has won the last five head to head. I usually fade streaks like that. I'm going to make an exception tonight.

[agendaman]

yes it is a marathon not a sprint money mgmnt. always guys like habs tonite also i am adding toronto too tx JR for your effort in this endeavour

[agendaman]

hey guys the nhl winter classic is on jan.2 at busch stadium in st. louis blues and hawks outdoor hockey the best

[JayRow]

No negativity here. Good cappers, like yourself, bounce back after bad nights. My first thought after last night was to definitely tail your pick tonight. I won't lie, I am reluctant to because Montreal has won the last five head to head. I usually fade streaks like that. I'm going to make an exception tonight.

Thanks for the kind words. Don't fade streaks like that; they have a positive expectation!

[sedwards86]

I just feel too much parity and randomness in NHL for streaks like that to last very long. I'm just waiting for Minnesota and Columbus to lose. That way I can fade them next game. Long win streaks that are ended usually result in a loss the next game too.

[Flea Hotel]

You fade teams that are on winning streaks??? The only thing a sportsbook likes more than a parlay fiend is a superstitious sports bettor. Reminds me all year of people taking Cleveland in the NFL every week for no other reason than: "they have to win eventually". Just my two cents but you might want to BET on teams when they are on winning streaks. What evidence do you have that winning streaks statistically are more likely to be followed by two game losing streaks? Man...

I just feel too much parity and randomness in NHL for streaks like that to last very long. I'm just waiting for Minnesota and Columbus to lose. That way I can fade them next game. Long win streaks that are ended usually result in a loss the next game too.

[JayRow]

Well penetrate me!

[dcsbears]

What a f joke of a game 3-1 in the 3rd and lose outright

[knicksrulez]

Just a bad run, it will turn out eventually, tough games today

[Flea Hotel]

Jay will be fine. I got destroyed in totals in the first month, now I can't lose. It's a season, not a day or even a week. God, that cliche is getting thrown around like a 102lb Japanese-Thai second year Psyche student.

Just a bad run, it will turn out eventually, tough games today

[JayRow]

I am incredibly frustrated but I will not send myself into going broke by overbetting. I will continue to exercise my investment and betting philosophy through the remainder of the season.

[Jayvegas420]

You fade teams that are on winning streaks??? The only thing a sportsbook likes more than a parlay fiend is a superstitious sports bettor. Reminds me all year of people taking Cleveland in the NFL every week for no other reason than: "they have to win eventually". Just my two cents but you might want to BET on teams when they are on winning streaks. What evidence do you have that winning streaks statistically are more likely to be followed by two game losing streaks? Man...

Books hate streaks.

[sedwards86]

You fade teams that are on winning streaks??? The only thing a sportsbook likes more than a parlay fiend is a superstitious sports bettor. Reminds me all year of people taking Cleveland in the NFL every week for no other reason than: "they have to win eventually". Just my two cents but you might want to BET on teams when they are on winning streaks. What evidence do you have that winning streaks statistically are more likely to be followed by two game losing streaks? Man...

I check Covers.com on a daily basis. I go each team's last 10 games. A pattern that I have seen a lot, especially in NBA is that if a team has won five or more ATS and then doesn't cover, they likely don't cover the next game either. If they do, it's almost certain they won't cover the game after that. Pattern looks something like W,W,W,W,W,L,L . Sometimes W,W,W,W,W,L,W,L.

So it's not really superstitious betting, it's just betting off patterns/trends that I have seen a lot. Here's another good one. In NHL, if I see a team who has won two in a row SU or a team who has lost two SU and PL, I always bet the team who has won twice in a row to win and the losing team to not cover PL (if dog). Because then Wallco will have a v1 and v2 chase coming up. Looking at his past seasons, his systems has almost 300 plays each season. Doing that has actually worked out well for me.

[sedwards86]

As far as fading and tailing guys on here, I am the same way (with certain ones). LT Profits for example. If he has a couple of + nights in a row, I fade until he has a bad night. Then I lay off him for a few days. BetThenSweat is a good one to do this to in NBA thread. It is very uncommon to see those guys have three or four + nights. Hell, I even fade myself if I have won a few nights in a row using my "model."

I will start a thread posting plays based off what I have told you in this post and the previous. Then we can all document whether it is just a bunch of bullshit. Please just do not bury the idea if the first couple days I post, it doesn't look good. That's my biggest problem with posting plays on this website.

[knicksrulez]

Keep it up brother! Discipline is freedom

[JayRow]

Yesterday: 0-1; -2.10 units
Season: 78-73; +7.59 units

Just when you need a nice lift from a two unit play you blow a 3-1 3rd period lead.

Large Card today. All one unit plays.

Devils ML +204 1/2 unit , Devils +1.5 -140 1/2 unit

bruins -130

panthers -110

Blackhawks +113

Kings +125

coyotes +136

Hawks/preds over 5 -133

stars/avalanche under 5.5 -111

blue jackets/jets under 5.5 -120

[GzaTheGenius]

Like all but coyotes

[agendaman]

yeh lak again JR like bhawks also

[crackerjack]

At least you're consistent, especially with your unders...

[JayRow]

Another losing night. Sorry guys.

[knicksrulez]

Another losing night. Sorry guys.

Hey man, it's all good we're here for the long run and you still up, don't doubt yourself, there are times of low self-esteem but don't need to be afraid. Just keep doing what you're doing before and things will turn out. This is just a road bump...

Thanks for everything JayRow

[franknikki1]

Keep rolling JayRow, it's just a bump like Knicksrules said.

[Flea Hotel]

Interesting, I should look into it more.

As far as fading and tailing guys on here, I am the same way (with certain ones). LT Profits for example. If he has a couple of + nights in a row, I fade until he has a bad night. Then I lay off him for a few days. BetThenSweat is a good one to do this to in NBA thread. It is very uncommon to see those guys have three or four + nights. Hell, I even fade myself if I have won a few nights in a row using my "model."

I will start a thread posting plays based off what I have told you in this post and the previous. Then we can all document whether it is just a bunch of bullshit. Please just do not bury the idea if the first couple days I post, it doesn't look good. That's my biggest problem with posting plays on this website.

[sedwards86]

Fading Wallco B bets has been very profitable this season. I hope I don't get killed for saying that. I do respect that system, but hear me out. A lot of his bets are underdog PL's, with like -270 odds on average. If you fade that, you are going to be taking fave PL for like +230. His B bets win at around 50%, even less this year. Let's say his B bets hit at 55%, that's 45% success rate for fading them B bets. 45% at +230 avg. odds is damn good profit.

[JayRow]

Yesterday: 3-5 ; -1.76 units
Season: 81-78; +5.83 units

Today's Plays:

Ducks -115 2 units

Predators +135 1 unit

Interesting commentary you guys have here. I am going to keep trucking along, closely monitoring everything but I am not going to abandon ship. Tough times we must persevere as successful human beings.