JayRow's World Famous Hockey Picks

[crackerjack]

Yesterday: 1-1; +2.75 units
Season: 89-85; +9.44 units

Today's Plays:

Jets +130 1 UNIT

Flyers -125 1 UNIT

Coyotes/Canucks UNDER 5.5 -135 1 UNIT

If today goes well I will really start to feel good about a hot streak on the horizon!

I've busted your balls about your Under picks so glad to see you've hit a few recently. Hope the trend continues...

[JayRow]

Yesterday: 1-1 ; -0.2 units
Season: 90-86; +9.24 units

Today's plays:

Avalanche +130

Ducks -210

Maple Leafs/Devil u5.5 -135

Islanders/Avalanche u5.5 -105

Flames/Canucks u5.5 -150

Coyotes/Ducks u5.5 -130

All 1 unit plays

[Goat Milk]

Any analysis for picks this year?

[GzaTheGenius]

Always betting the avalanche.. yet they never win

[JayRow]

Always betting the avalanche.. yet they never win

So this would make you believe that my way of analysis indicates they are better than their previous performance, so I find value in betting on them.

[Flea Hotel]

Good luck JR. You and your Avs. Like all the others except I think that Flames/Canucks game might go over. Tricky night for sure, BOL!

Yesterday: 1-1 ; -0.2 units
Season: 90-86; +9.24 units

Today's plays:

Avalanche +130

Ducks -210

Maple Leafs/Devil u5.5 -135

Islanders/Avalanche u5.5 -105

Flames/Canucks u5.5 -150

Coyotes/Ducks u5.5 -130

All 1 unit plays

[GzaTheGenius]

So this would make you believe that my way of analysis indicates they are better than their previous performance, so I find value in betting on them.

Nah makes me think your crazy haha

I'm on the other side here, Islanders can at least score goals

[Flea Hotel]

JR, don't sweat a troll whose name says they're a genius yet doesn't know the difference between your and you're.

Nah makes me think your crazy haha

I'm on the other side here, Islanders can at least score goals

[GzaTheGenius]

JR, don't sweat a troll whose name says they're a genius yet doesn't know the difference between your and you're.

Got me there bro, if only I never dropped out of 2nd grade

Not really trolling either just pointing out I see him on Colorado a lot, just not a good way to make money

[JayRow]

Good luck JR. You and your Avs. Like all the others except I think that Flames/Canucks game might go over. Tricky night for sure, BOL!

Thanks. Still being patient waiting for a break through. Definitely a tough season so far by my standards and expectations, but hey, + units is + units. this is a tough game we try to conquer. Congrats to you as I see you have been extremely successful as of late.

My avs I know! I run with my numbers to the death. What I will tell you is that is that my record is 3-5; + 1.13 units betting on the Avalanche this season. So... take that!!!

The Flames/Canucks was right on the edge of what I need to bet a game. -150 implies 60%. I have it at 64%. That one might be getting a little greedy.

First super-juicy play of the year is the Ducks.. we'll see how that goes!

You the man brotha!

[Nostradam]

Got me there bro, if only I never dropped out of 2nd grade

Not really trolling either just pointing out I see him on Colorado a lot, just not a good way to make money

Neither has his recent fading of streaking teams (Wild, BJ's, etc) been good for his record or units.

People who follow stats or systems (e.g. Wallco Fools-Gold) no matter what lead to these kinds of bets, even if half the team is injured or the whole just died in a plane crash.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjoXaJUOInU

[Flea Hotel]

Well I respect your picks so I usually don't auto-fade the Avs when you're on them. I don't have a horse in the race tonight so I'll root them on. When I was a super little flea, they used to play a few hours from me in Quebec City. Then the Flyers tried to imitate the Minnesota Vikings and made them awesome, but not before they went to Denver. Peter Forsberg was awesome, and Swedish, which is a rare combination.

Thanks. Still being patient waiting for a break through. Definitely a tough season so far by my standards and expectations, but hey, + units is + units. this is a tough game we try to conquer. Congrats to you as I see you have been extremely successful as of late.

My avs I know! I run with my numbers to the death. What I will tell you is that is that my record is 3-5; + 1.13 units betting on the Avalanche this season. So... take that!!!

The Flames/Canucks was right on the edge of what I need to bet a game. -150 implies 60%. I have it at 64%. That one might be getting a little greedy.

First super-juicy play of the year is the Ducks.. we'll see how that goes!

You the man brotha!

[Flea Hotel]

Speaking of plane crashes, welcome back. I'm working on something REALLY special for you. It's got massive, massive, massive EV.

Neither has his recent fading of streaking teams (Wild, BJ's, etc) been good for his record or units.

People who follow stats or systems (e.g. Wallco Fools-Gold) no matter what lead to these kinds of bets, even if half the team is injured or the whole just died in a plane crash.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjoXaJUOInU

[Catchn_Picks]

There is value on the Avs being plus money at home versus NYI, a team not that much worse. Isles have no business laying juice on the road at altitude. I will probably hold my nose and bet them. BOL and GLTA

[Flea Hotel]

Good points.

There is value on the Avs being plus money at home versus NYI, a team not that much worse. Isles have no business laying juice on the road at altitude. I will probably hold my nose and bet them. BOL and GLTA

[Flea Hotel]

Nah my bad for calling you a troll when there is no bigger fader of the Avs than me. Sorry bout that.

Got me there bro, if only I never dropped out of 2nd grade

Not really trolling either just pointing out I see him on Colorado a lot, just not a good way to make money

[JayRow]

Got me there bro, if only I never dropped out of 2nd grade

Not really trolling either just pointing out I see him on Colorado a lot, just not a good way to make money

I just looked up my record on the Avalanche this season .+1.13 units... if I could do that for every team...'it would be a great season. So I don't really take too much to the criticism

[jpeterb]

Thanks JayRow

Yesterday: 1-1 ; -0.2 units
Season: 90-86; +9.24 units

Today's plays:

Avalanche +130

Ducks -210

Maple Leafs/Devil u5.5 -135

Islanders/Avalanche u5.5 -105

Flames/Canucks u5.5 -150

Coyotes/Ducks u5.5 -130

All 1 unit plays

[Nostradam]

Speaking of plane crashes, welcome back. I'm working on something REALLY special for you. It's got massive, massive, massive EV.

"By agreeing to these rules, you warrant that you will not post any messages that are obscene, vulgar, sexually-oriented, hateful, threatening, or otherwise violative of any laws. SBR reserves the right to limit or prohibit restricted posting accounts from participating in forum-hosted contests."

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...p?do=showrules


"We welcome lively and passionate debate, but when the posts turn simply personal in nature, SBR reserves the right to either edit or move those posts as seen fit. If anyone sees a thread or post that appears out of line, please report the post using the report post link that appears under all posters’ ID and avatar."

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/faq.php

You were already warned by SBR once before. Bye, bye Troll.

[Flea Hotel]

Please don't hijack JR's thread. I said something special. Not "obscene, vulgar, sexually-oriented, hateful, threatening, or otherwise violative of any laws." För känslig och paranoid min vän.

"By agreeing to these rules, you warrant that you will not post any messages that are obscene, vulgar, sexually-oriented, hateful, threatening, or otherwise violative of any laws. SBR reserves the right to limit or prohibit restricted posting accounts from participating in forum-hosted contests."

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...p?do=showrules


"We welcome lively and passionate debate, but when the posts turn simply personal in nature, SBR reserves the right to either edit or move those posts as seen fit. If anyone sees a thread or post that appears out of line, please report the post using the report post link that appears under all posters’ ID and avatar."

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/faq.php

You were already warned by SBR once before. Bye, bye Troll.

[Flea Hotel]

If it's bye, bye to anyone, it's you. I'm one the best contributors on this forum. You're easily the biggest troll on this site. I have no idea why you haven't been banned yet. I guess I could always go back and report the countless trolling messages you've left on mine and other threads.

Sorry Jay Row, this shouldn't be in here. Hopefully the troll can move this to his special thread where he trolls people to himself.

"
You were already warned by SBR once before. Bye, bye Troll.

[reed_barrington]

Inspired: Tailing your AVS and DUCKS! also Yotes / Ducks UNDER 5.5 Thanks JR!

[JayRow]

Inspired: Tailing your AVS and DUCKS! also Yotes / Ducks UNDER 5.5 Thanks JR!

Thanks! Hopefully we make some money. It's been a while since a monster night. So far so good!

[JayRow]

Should have laid off that penetrating flames under

[JayRow]

4-2 +1.45 units. No more totals with -150 juice. Mistake.

[JayRow]

Where my Avs fans at????

[GzaTheGenius]

Where my Avs fans at????

Was an exciting game there at the end, both goalies played great. Grats bro

[Flea Hotel]

Where my Avs fans at????

[Mike283]

Where my Avs fans at????

LOL, nice work JR.

Also, from my understanding of behavioral economics with regard to sports betting, people (ie, the public) usually put more action on favorites (pushing the line that way), because better odds feel safer and people tend to overestimate the chances of the favorites hitting (like they see 70% and behave like it will hit 90%). Thus, good underdog plays and especially underdog home plays tend to generate a lot of value in the hands of even a decent handicapper (and you and Flea are well above decent imo).

So my question, do you agree or disagree with that, just curious what your experience is there.

[JayRow]

LOL, nice work JR.

Also, from my understanding of behavioral economics with regard to sports betting, people (ie, the public) usually put more action on favorites (pushing the line that way), because better odds feel safer and people tend to overestimate the chances of the favorites hitting (like they see 70% and behave like it will hit 90%). Thus, good underdog plays and especially underdog home plays tend to generate a lot of value in the hands of even a decent handicapper (and you and Flea are well above decent imo).

So my question, do you agree or disagree with that, just curious what your experience is there.

This is generally correct. Betting on dogs and fading the public could get you close to break even. You shouldnt lose your shirt with that approach if you have a consistent bet size.

With discipline you'll be better than 80% of bettors in this manner.

Then the hard part is taking that approach and adding nuggets of flavor to get you to be profitable.

[JayRow]

Busy day today. Here are the plays.

Today's Plays:

Kings -126
Capitals -140
Stars +135
Flyers -130
Maple Leafs/Canadiens u5.5 -115
Coyotes/Islanders u5.5 -115
Jets/Sabres u5.5 -135
Bruins/Panthers OVER 5 -129

[JayRow]

Major overhaul coming to the under system tomorrow.... just left my PC to go tailgate for the Texans game but I have found a nice revelation that will increase our returns.

[Catchn_Picks]

4-2 +1.45 units. No more totals with -150 juice. Mistake.

Yea. Had to double take since you had not done that much before. BOL

[Catchn_Picks]

Major overhaul coming to the under system tomorrow.... just left my PC to go tailgate for the Texans game but I have found a nice revelation that will increase our returns.

"Revelation": My new favorite word! LOL

[reed_barrington]

Inspired: I'm on flyers, caps, Boston / Florida over 5. They will tribute to the shootings in Florida yesterday and it will be score city. Respectfully.