My Betting Manifesto
I posted this last Sunday and I got some good feedback on it, so I figured I would post it here. Just a different outlook on Sports Betting.
My Goal: Double my bankroll in a season.
1. Establish a bankroll.
2. Flat Bet
3. Reduced juice books/exchanges are a must
Here is how it works. Once a bankroll is established you must be consistent. No doubling up, no chasing 2nd half plays. None of that. This is a business and you are investing, just like the stock market, just like any business does. I don't bet on games because they are on TV, I bet on them because I believe I have greater than a 50% chance of winning. Anytime you have grasp of an edge greater than 50%, then your in business.
Flat betting is key. We all know how it works, the game you put the least on wins and the game you put the most on loses. Your record stands at 1-1, but you are down money. The idea of parlays, teasers to me are sucker bets, just in a different form. There is always one game you teased the wrong way and the last leg of your parlay loses. It has happened to the majority of bettors. Simply put, the average bettor is looking to make X-Dollars today, while I am looking at making X-Dollars over the course of a season. Would you rather make $1k tonight or $10k within a 90 day period? The choice is pretty obvious to me. Here is where Reduced Juice comes into play.
Reduced juice books/exchanges allow even the average bettor to maximize their profits even their losses. Lets compare.
2% -- 10%
Starting bankroll $100k
Record (58%) 58-42 -- 58-42
Win $ at 10k per $580,000 -- $580,000
Loss $ at 10k per $428,000 -- $462,000
Profit $151, 000 -- $118,000
That is the difference right there. If you can go 58% there is a monumental difference in profits when you have reduced juice, so much so that you would have to go 60% at 10% juice just to match it. I realize that this is a very aggressive way to approach this and that if you go 0-10 you are done, but this is the most sound way to go about reaching an aggressive investment goal.
The average bettor who loses their shirt every week will tell you that the "house" has the edge and that you cannot make money sports betting, but I have shown above that with a $100k bankroll, hitting at only a 58% clip you make $151,000 profit. Not bad for doing what you love.
The example above is more for a comparison on juice and to show how much getting the lowest possible vig is crucial. Lets break the system down in its most simple form.
$100k bankroll
1 unit = 10%
10% = $10k
The Goal = +10 units
+10 units = 100% profit
This is why you flat bet. Wager the same amount on every play and once you have reached the goal you have doubled your bankroll. You now have the option to set a new goal or just cash out for the season. This is entirely up to the individual bettor based on his confidence level.
My Goal: Double my bankroll in a season.
1. Establish a bankroll.
2. Flat Bet
3. Reduced juice books/exchanges are a must
Here is how it works. Once a bankroll is established you must be consistent. No doubling up, no chasing 2nd half plays. None of that. This is a business and you are investing, just like the stock market, just like any business does. I don't bet on games because they are on TV, I bet on them because I believe I have greater than a 50% chance of winning. Anytime you have grasp of an edge greater than 50%, then your in business.
Flat betting is key. We all know how it works, the game you put the least on wins and the game you put the most on loses. Your record stands at 1-1, but you are down money. The idea of parlays, teasers to me are sucker bets, just in a different form. There is always one game you teased the wrong way and the last leg of your parlay loses. It has happened to the majority of bettors. Simply put, the average bettor is looking to make X-Dollars today, while I am looking at making X-Dollars over the course of a season. Would you rather make $1k tonight or $10k within a 90 day period? The choice is pretty obvious to me. Here is where Reduced Juice comes into play.
Reduced juice books/exchanges allow even the average bettor to maximize their profits even their losses. Lets compare.
2% -- 10%
Starting bankroll $100k
Record (58%) 58-42 -- 58-42
Win $ at 10k per $580,000 -- $580,000
Loss $ at 10k per $428,000 -- $462,000
Profit $151, 000 -- $118,000
That is the difference right there. If you can go 58% there is a monumental difference in profits when you have reduced juice, so much so that you would have to go 60% at 10% juice just to match it. I realize that this is a very aggressive way to approach this and that if you go 0-10 you are done, but this is the most sound way to go about reaching an aggressive investment goal.
The average bettor who loses their shirt every week will tell you that the "house" has the edge and that you cannot make money sports betting, but I have shown above that with a $100k bankroll, hitting at only a 58% clip you make $151,000 profit. Not bad for doing what you love.
The example above is more for a comparison on juice and to show how much getting the lowest possible vig is crucial. Lets break the system down in its most simple form.
$100k bankroll
1 unit = 10%
10% = $10k
The Goal = +10 units
+10 units = 100% profit
This is why you flat bet. Wager the same amount on every play and once you have reached the goal you have doubled your bankroll. You now have the option to set a new goal or just cash out for the season. This is entirely up to the individual bettor based on his confidence level.
