Tracking NBA dogs between +7 to +9.5

[klemopixx]

I have a theory about these dogs covering, seems like in the last minute of a game that is out of reach the winning team will slack off and you get that sneaky cover. The idea is to have a spread big enough that the game is not in question but spread is. +7 to +9.5 seems to be the right number to me. Can't tell you how many of these bets I've lost over the years, now I want to see if there's enough there to consistently take the dogs.

Opening night had the Knicks +9 and the Spurs +8, record is 1-1 for the year.


Tonight it's the Sixers +9.5

[Roscoe_Word]

Could be a 55% er which is good. GL, bro!

[jjgold]

good luck and keep us updated

[HossWilbur]

Since 1995 it has only hit at a 48.3% rate, 2727-2924-132.

[LT Profits]

Since 1995 it has only hit at a 48.3% rate, 2727-2924-132.

Bingo. If only betting was as easy as just taking teams in a certain spread range,

[gojetsgomoxies]

i like the idea and ideas like that. thanks for posting

but since start of 2012 season (i think... i don't have it in front of me).

9.5 and 10 point underdogs have been REALLY HORRIBLE against the spread. like 37% or 38% on a large number of games.......... the rest didn't jump out at me that much. most others were probably within 1.5 % or 2% of 50%....

[gojetsgomoxies]

http://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=line+%3E9+and+line+%3C+10.5+and+date+%3E+20120401+and+season&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

39.4% ATS on 9.5 and 10 point underdog since april 2012... and that's the first and only date range i ran i.e. didn't data mine the winning % time-wise although i did spread-wise........ pretty sure i have it right and not backwards but it's easy to make a mistake.

you may want to slice and dice........

[doitnow]

Philly off to a good start

[Hu$tle]

Interesting thought but like said probably not sharp

[LeaninBack916]

Youll see the +8.5 Kings tomorrow night boost your numbers. That number might even grow with all the Spurs fanfare for beating a GSW team that lost its rebounding ability.

[klemopixx]

Thanks to kingdom and b1slickguy for the messages, I appreciate all the info I can get! I just feel a need to follow this, those last minute baskets against a half-hearted defense have kicked me in the nuts for years! I just want to see where it goes if I play strictly on the dog side.

Last night Philly pulled out a cover! Go Sixers! The dogs are 2-1 for the year!

The Kings+9 are the only play tonight. Thanks to everyone for pitching in their two cents!

[crackerjack]

Thanks to kingdom and b1slickguy for the messages, I appreciate all the info I can get! I just feel a need to follow this, those last minute baskets against a half-hearted defense have kicked me in the nuts for years! I just want to see where it goes if I play strictly on the dog side.

Last night Philly pulled out a cover! Go Sixers! The dogs are 2-1 for the year!

The Kings+9 are the only play tonight. Thanks to everyone for pitching in their two cents!

You probably haven't lost an abnormal number of bets in that fashion...it's just the ones you have lost have stood out to you more and made a bigger impression.

[gojetsgomoxies]

definitely go with the idea and track it even if arguably it may have been a past loser.... from tracking it you may also be able to see patterns within the data that are big winners...... and of course, if it is a big loser just do the opposite and you have a big winner

[gojetsgomoxies]

You probably haven't lost an abnormal number of bets in that fashion...it's just the ones you have lost have stood out to you more and made a bigger impression.

i do agree with this....... and people think back-door covers - ncaa football especially - are some kind of bad break when in fact they are perfectly normal and pricing into the spread.

[klemopixx]

YTD 3-1

Last night the Kings+9 was a winner in classic fashion! The Spurs ran out the clock with an 8 point lead, another winner for the big dogs. Tonight we have 2 games that fit this model

OKC vs Phoenix +9.5
Utah vs LA Lakers + 9.5

I kinda like the dogs in both of these. Lakers looked improved in the opener against the Rockets and OKC looked like it was still feeling out its offense without Durant against the Sixers the other night. We shall see.

[Roscoe_Word]

Stumbled on to something, brother.

Small sample size, but 3-1 looks good.

[TechnicalTrader]

Interesting, without being a thread highjacker, I'd say playing the exact opposite, fav's -10 would make you money but only playing them ATS with totals under 200:

http://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=line+%3D-10+and+total+%3C200+and+season%3D2012%2C2013%2C2014%2C2015%2C2016&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

2012 56.2%
2013 53.8%
2014 55%
2015 75%

Not super sexy, but here's where things get interesting..... Not once has this system lost 4 games in a row! A four game chase at -105 odds would cost you about 18 units.

Here's how you play it:

Take first signal, if the bet is loss, chase in order to cover former losses. Do not start a chase

This is how the system did over the last 4 seasons.

2012 6 units
2013 6 units
2014 9 units
2015 10 units

I really like the direction of this trend!!

Your only problem would be playing two games on the same day. My only issue would be waiting for signals.It looks like it only averages about 2 games a month...

[klemopixx]

YTD 5-1

The Suns game got bet down to +7.5 but they still covered, as did the Lakers+9 against Utah. I admit this is an awfully small sample size but this is a hot trend right now! This may be due to parity in the league or just a matter of good teams, such as OKC, still working on their lineups and adjusting to new offensive schemes. Maybe it's just dumb luck but 5-1 is a nice start.

The only game that fits the model today is my Sixers getting 7.5 at home against the Atlanta Hawks with a weird 12:35 PM start. This might get bet down but at the moment of this post it's 7.5, so be it. Go Sixers!!!!

[rollie_t651]

Good luck today! Go Philly!

[Roscoe_Word]

[BuckyOne]

It is not the niche - the scientific value of the line has to be there - maybe, it is a place to look - like the Kings - they outplayed the Spurs most of that game. I think the home court factor was more than the norm. New arena - fans were terrific. Then the let down by the Spurs after the Warriors win. Those two things were not technical at all and it is just a guess if it will really be there when we look at it before the game.

But, I agree, we can look to this niche a lot but not just blanket - take all of them.

[sportsfan9698]

Dog or Chalk... It does not matter the line so much. You must look for other data to make selections.

this thread will die soon

[klemopixx]

YTD 6-2

Philly got their ass handed to them by the Hawks and lost by 32, nuff said. The Bucks went from +6.5 to +8 and then ended up winning the damn game! Gotta love that Milwaukee squad!
I know it's not advisable to make a pick just based on a point spread but this is an idea that has sat in my head for a while. Just tracking it to see if there is any validity to this theory.

Today there is currently three dogs that fit this model
Jazz +7.5 at the Clippers
Bucks +7.5 at the Pistons
Lakers +8 at OKC

The Heat are currently +6.5 at the Spurs but we'll see where that ends up at tipoff before I include them.

[trillz]

YTD 6-2

Philly got their ass handed to them by the Hawks and lost by 32, nuff said. The Bucks went from +6.5 to +8 and then ended up winning the damn game! Gotta love that Milwaukee squad!
I know it's not advisable to make a pick just based on a point spread but this is an idea that has sat in my head for a while. Just tracking it to see if there is any validity to this theory.

Today there is currently three dogs that fit this model
Jazz +7.5 at the Clippers
Bucks +7.5 at the Pistons
Lakers +8 at OKC

The Heat are currently +6.5 at the Spurs but we'll see where that ends up at tipoff before I include them.

Did you mean you it took the nets +8 yesterday? Bucks were -8

[klemopixx]

My Bad! Yes it was the Nets +8 yesterday, too many numbers going through the head this morning! Thanks trillz!

Number still stands at 6-2

[klemopixx]

YTD 6-5
All three dogs got their azz kicked, first big swing to the other side this year. Took the collar with an 0-3 night, ouch!

Tonight the Nuggets are +7 in Toronto and the Kings are also +7 down in Atlanta.

[trillz]

Looks like tonight Lakers are +9 in Indiana and Rockets +9 in Cleveland. Utah is +10 or +10.5 in SA I could see that line maybe coming down to 9.5 before tipoff because a lot of people feel good about the Jazz this year

hope you don't mind just saw you hadn't stopped by today

[klemopixx]

YTD 7-6

The Nuggets covered even though they dropped to 6.5 by tip off. Kings lost by 11.

Tonight it is Rockets +9 and Lakers +9, we'll see about the Jazz. They might get down to 9.5, I like that bet.

[Roscoe_Word]

7-6 (ATS) is a pretty good record.

System seems to have some merit. GL, brother!

[bryanoens]

7-6 (ATS) is a pretty good record.

System seems to have some merit. GL, brother!

The back tracking seems to show about 44% so it's not a great system to follow based on history. Sportsdatabase. Com is my reference just like gojets said before. Need to refine the filter with these dogs.

[klemopixx]

It might need some fine tuning to get in a consistent winning percentage. Right now I'm waiting for teams to get a few more games in before I think about adjusting this. Teams playing back to back is one angle I might apply to this. I think there's something to this, just have to find the niche'.

[trillz]

3-0 if you took Utah. Line dropped to 9.5 before tipoff

[klemopixx]

It would be 3-1 because the Grizzlies went to +7.5 but they got blown out by 36. Some books had the Jazz line at 10, some at 9.5. Considering there were two lines that moved I'll count them both because they cancel each other out anyway.

YTD 10-8 ATS

Tonight the Thunder is getting 7.5 from the Clippers in LA, I really like this bet for some reason. The only other one close is the Pelicans getting 6 from the Grizzlies but I doubt this gets any higher. So far its one game fitting the model.

[klemopixx]

The Thunder came through with 2 point win outright!


YTD 11-8 ATS


Nothing comes close to matching the model today but there is an interesting matchup with the Thunder playing against their old teammate now playing for the Warriors. I look for Westbrook to have an outstanding game but being it's the second game of a back-to-back for OKC, I'm not sure they can cover, even though it's currently at 11. Should be fun to watch!

[Roscoe_Word]

Good job!