glad to see you are still at it......... i think you are right that you can track the system as winner or loser but get an idea for additional simple filters to lay over top like back-to-back, big cover or miss last game etc.
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YTD 11-8 ATS
Two games on tap for tonight
The Heat are getting +7.5 in Toronto and the Knicks are getting +7.5 in Chicago. Not thrilled about either of these matchups but they fit the model.Comment -
YTD 12-9 ATS
The Knicks won outright over the Bulls but the Heat couldn't get under 7 pt spread, falling to the raptors by 9. The only game close to the model today is the T-Wolves getting 6 from the Thunder, as of now it's a no play but I'll check before tip off.Comment -
Now when does the # apply? At open/close? Knicks were 6.5 before they moved up.Comment -
It applies at the close unless I pound it at the time of the post. If I bet it at 7.5 and it drops I'm still counting it cause my cash is on it at that number. If something is close and sneaks in at tipoff I'll count it. The point is to see if there's a glitch in this spread. If I can bet it at the right number then I'm taking it.
Is that legit? Am I doing this wrong? Should I only use the closing number?Comment -
YTD 12-9 ATS
Nothing yesterday but today there is two games
The Kings getting +9.5 in Toronto and the Nuggets getting +7.5 in Boston. I like both of these bets!Comment -
I was thinking only use the opening numberComment -
I want to use the number when I'm betting which is what I would usually use when actually making a bet. Sometimes I can't sit and wait till 5 minutes till tipoff to get the right number so I guess I should do it when I'm writing the post. I have to say 90% of the games have been in the number at both times and only very few have fallen in under the wire at the tip. Anyway this is the way I've done it so I'm stuck with it, I think it's the closest to actually betting the games anyway. On to the results...
YTD 14-9 ATS Both the Nuggets and the Kings came through with ML wins yesterday!
Today has two more road dogs, the Magic are +7.5 against Chicago and the Pistons are +8.5 in LA against the Clippers. Personally I don't like either of the dogs but let's see where this goes.Comment -
As I felt, both dogs got their asses handed to them.
YTD 14-11 ATS
Today though I like both current dogs in the +7 to +9.5 range
The Hawks are +8 in Cleveland and the Suns are +7.5 in Portland. I think both these squads can stay close. Even though last night's dogs bombed I had a feeling they were toast before the game. Narrowing down the field to this angle is giving me better insight as to who can cover and who are the pretenders.Comment -
needs filtersComment -
YTD 16-11
If it needs filters than apply as needed. I think if you apply whatever filter you want and it makes it better than go for it! But as of now I'm sticking with the basic numbers and THEN applying my own personal spin on top of it which I've been doing pretty well the last few days. I liked both dogs that fit into the model yesterday and both hit! The day before, not so much and the results reflected my concern. On to today!
Currently there are two games that fit the +7 to +9.5 model.
The Nets are getting +8.5 in Manhattan against the Knicks and Rockets are getting +8 in San Antonio. For the sake of this model I'm counting both but personally I'm putting more $ on the Nets, not because I think the Nets are better but I think they can stay closer to the Knicks more than the Rockets in San Antonio. But I am counting both to the YTD totals. Let's see if my predictions are true.
If anyone doesn't like the way I'm running this than feel free to bitch but I'll feel free to listen also! LOL!Comment -
YTD 17-12 ATS
So much for what I know! After a hot start the Nets crumbled to the Knicks while the Rockets won outright over the Spurs! IN SAN ANTONIO!!!
This is all the more reason to just trust the number, what the hell does a gambler know???
No games fitting the model tonight!Comment -
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Track dogs from 4-7 pts on a road trip of 3 plus games ag the other Conference. Play game 3 if first 2 lose , and chase until you win your unit. You will never here me tell you to chase losses but this has produced heavy profits over the past 5-7 years. Don't ask me why it's the SuperSystem the 5 foot mathematician produced.
Filter: don't play bottom 2 teams of division
Look for injuries to key players
These are the only 2 filters I've used and made consistent profitsComment -
Usually 30-60 plays a year. Just don't get greedy w it and follow the filters. I've had guys win game 3 on a 7 game trip and try and get 2 wins and dig holes they can't get out of.Comment -
I butchered this Chase System. Sorry still detoxing from baseball. When a team goes on a road trip of 3 or more games ag the other Conference play the away team if they are getting 3.5 pts or more. It's a ( A) ( B ) ( C ) chase. That's it. If A loses you double B , if B loses you double to C. If C loses that chase lost. Set aside a separate bankroll. Conservative is 3 percent of your roll on A plays.
Use the same filters. Never bottom 2 teams in the division
Keep a close watch on injuries
This scenario pops up more than you think. I've had 3 chases at once. A little something on the side that really heats up in December.Comment -
It's Tony Chau's exterminator system. His hoops is by far the most popular. You look on you tube he's selling NFL and MLB which is the sweep system which " STRUGGLED " last year for the first time in 5 years I played it.Comment -
Are you sure about that? I'm getting an 15-11-1 record ATS:
Away teams are: 14-9 ATS
BUT, this system is pretty flat over the last 4 seasons:
This system seems to perform the best in November(66-47-2), so now is the time to play it.
Great work though. I really see a crap load of potential in something like this!
Cheers,
TTComment -
Just curious, if the theory is that teams with big leads back off at the end which they do, why 7 to 9.5 point dogs and not 7 and up?Comment -
Huge dogs get buried more often because they suck and guys lose motivation at the end of a game. This is usually when the back end of the bench plays and who knows what you're getting into with that. You could get rookies who have played a dozen minutes all year, jackin up wild shots or just playing hot potato. Winning teams will rest the big dogs in the last two minutes when so-so players are still trying to pad the stat sheet on losing teams. On the winning side you'll get guys trying to run out the clock and basically try to NOT suck. The idea is teams that are ahead will allow a backdoor cover by allowing uncontested layups and 3's just to let the clock go down.Comment -
YTD 17-12 If you think I'm wrong go back on the thread and point it out. There might have been a game or two where the spread was 7 when writing this and it fell to 6 by tip off. I count those games cause I have made my bets at the right number, I don't have time to watch the line and get my bets in moments before the tip, I have a life. (sort of) anyway......
Tonight there is two games fitting the model
The Pistons are getting +8.5 in San Antonio
The Wizards are a +7 HOME DOG against the Cavs, you don't see many home dogs in this range
I give up trying to predict this crap, I'm just following the model now. Wish me luck!
The Kings are getting +6.5 in Portland, this might go to +7 at the tip but I'll check back if I do plunk down some $ since its a west coast game and its FridayComment -
YTD 18-14
Both the Pistons and home dog Wizards couldn't cover last night, thought the Kings did go to +7 and they ended up covering and it was mentioned in the last post though I missed on getting the bet in cause I was tapping the ol' lady. Got to take care of business, y'know? Anyway....
Nothing so far in the NBA today. I'll check back this afternoon.Comment -
The Knicks are getting +7 in TorontoComment -
YTD 18-15 ATS
Knicks lost, maybe this is the time of the season when this model starts slipping back to even.
Today I see 2 games so far
Hornets getting +8 in Cleveland and the Magic getting +9.5 in OKC
Not particularly thrilled about either of those games, lets see what happens.Comment -
Both Sunday games won, as for last night the only Game was the Magic +8 against the Pacers and they got blown out by 19. These games bring the total to YTD 20-16 ATS
Tonight there is nothing so far but three games are close so I'll keep watch and check back at 6:30 for the latest linesComment -
YTD 20-16 ATS
After two days of no games fitting the model there are 4 games tonight
The Pistons are getting +8.5 in Cleveland
Nets are getting +9.5 in OKC
Celtics are +8.5 home dogs against the Warriors
The King are also +8.5 home dogs against the Clippers
Liking the home dogs hereComment -
1-3 yesterday, actually 1-4 with the Lakers +8.5 and losing by 9 sooooooo
YTD 21-20 ATS
The Mavs are getting +7.5 in Orlando
The Bulls are getting +7 in LA against the Clips
The Bucks are a +7.5 home dog against the Warriors.
Bulls are really the only team I like here. I guess this might be the time of year that the wheels come off this train.
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Bulls moved from a +7 to a +8 at game time which would have given them a win ATS, Bucks stayed close to GS for the win and the Mavs missed out by .5 to get the loss. I'll count it as 1-1-1 because I took the Bulls at +7.
YTD 22-21-1 ATS
Nothing remotely close to the model today.Comment -
i think u should use the closing line. that's the best time to make the wager. especially in a tracking system.Comment -
Closing line it is, though I have snuck a few better lines in earlier before they dropped.
YTD 22-21-1
At the moment we have two plays
The Suns getting +7.5 in Washington (me likey)
The Raptors getting +9 in LA against the Clips (me really likey)
Washington has no business giving 7.5 to anyone. Clips are hot but Raptors should be able to stay close.Comment -
Well would you look at that! Both the Suns and the Raptors won against the spread and as an added BONUS, the Magic went to +7 before tipoff and Boom! They covered too! 3 wins in one day to push the totals to 25-21-1 ATS. Still hanging in there!
As for tonight there's only one game in the model
The Pelicans are getting +7.5 in Atlanta, might be a tough cover there boys! The Hawks like to really pour it on when they get hot. Good Luck!Comment -
InterestingComment -
You should split home, away, conference non conferenceComment -
You should stop this silly theory and try something that has a chance. This methodology is far too simplistic, and I guarantee you it would have not worked decades ago when nobody had a computer, and has even less chance today.
Your own numbers have now found the median of the distribution curve... time to move on - I'm not being nasty, but I am trying to allow you to put some effort into something with potentialComment
