Current Projections For Presidential Race w/link

[will2survive]

http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php

Please tell me that this is incorrect. It say's July 28th. Hillary can't be this far ahead. Does anyone have an accurate site or is this accurate? Trump needs to chill with those tweets every 5 minutes. It make's him seem like an angry, insecure old man.

[Brock Landers]

She's 100% to win, and has been all along

[thetrinity]

look at the popular vote

its not as bad as the electoral would lead you to believe

[will2survive]

look at the popular vote

its not as bad as the electoral would lead you to believe

https://www.instagram.com/p/BIdHmRbjEp0/

I hope so. I know electoral is the deciding factor and the betting odds have Hillary as a comfortable favorite. Trump went from +240 to +200, on Bookmaker, therefore he is making up ground, but will there be enough time. I think she had an advantage going 2nd. ---Check out the Instagram (It's Trump's)

[thetrinity]

https://www.instagram.com/p/BIdHmRbjEp0/

I hope so. I know electoral is the deciding factor and the betting odds have Hillary as a comfortable favorite. Trump went from +240 to +200, on Bookmaker, therefore he is making up ground, but will there be enough time. I think she had an advantage going 2nd. ---Check out the Instagram (It's Trump's)

there was another part of the speech where he was looking around scratching his ear, completely disengaged, probably looking for some tail for later on

shes a decided favorite but theres still a lot of time

honestly i thought sanders throwing her his support was going to be a near fatal blow and it only moved the needle a little

trumps still hanging in there a lot of close states so that electoral map can change we are now in the portion where the candidates get to meet with the people, something hes pretty good at

[d2bets]

look at the popular vote

its not as bad as the electoral would lead you to believe

But the popular vote is meaningless. Electoral vote is all that matters.

[lakerboy]

But the popular vote is meaningless. Electoral vote is all that matters.

That in a nutshell tells you terrible the us electoral system is.

[DwightShrute]

She's 100% to win, and has been all along

1% at best.

[d2bets]

That in a nutshell tells you terrible the us electoral system is.

I agree, but it is what it is. It's a series of 50 elections, and we know that only 7 or 8 really matter.

[lakerboy]

She's 100% to win, and has been all along

Wow.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Trump could easily win the popular vote by 2-3% and still lose the electoral vote.

[brooks85]

That in a nutshell tells you terrible the us electoral system is.

I get what you're saying but it is the only thing saving this country from turning into France rapidly. If California's and New York's vote counted 1 for 1 in the election a Republican couldn't win. Just too many sheep in those states.

[ACoochy]

http://www.electionprojection.com/pr...-elections.php

Please tell me that this is incorrect. It say's July 28th. Hillary can't be this far ahead. Does anyone have an accurate site or is this accurate? Trump needs to chill with those tweets every 5 minutes. It make's him seem like an angry, insecure old man.

What do u mean 'seem like a angry old man'??

The guys a bipolaric psychopath

[d2bets]

I get what you're saying but it is the only thing saving this country from turning into France rapidly. If California's and New York's vote counted 1 for 1 in the election a Republican couldn't win.

If it was popular vote 1 for 1, then President Bush would have been President Gore. And that's the only modern election that would have come out differently. brooks again making claims without any supporting evidence.

[Snowball]

Please tell me that this is incorrect.

It's incorrect, and works on presumptions from the last two elections.
Hillary is just as overrated as a YES vote to STAY in the EU was,
right up to the final hour.
Then Brexit won.
Books, experts, financial sector, "elites" were all wrong.

[Greget]

It's incorrect, and works on presumptions from the last two elections.
Hillary is just as overrated as a YES vote to STAY in the EU was,
right up to the final hour.
Then Brexit won.
Books, experts, financial sector, "elites" were all wrong.

The polls switched in the last hour of brexit and yet it was a close election, how is that getting it wrong?

Polls get it right 99% of the time.

What makes your amateur analysis worth shit compared to the people who actually know what they are talking about?

[ByeShea]

http://www.electionprojection.com/pr...-elections.php

Please tell me that this is incorrect. It say's July 28th. Hillary can't be this far ahead. Does anyone have an accurate site or is this accurate? Trump needs to chill with those tweets every 5 minutes. It make's him seem like an angry, insecure old man.

That map is pre-convention ... several "weak Dems" have flipped to Trump. And it's always good for a candidate to be doing well in the general polls this far out. Always. The race isn't state intensive yet.

I think everyone needs a reminder about that poll indicating that 56% of America thought she should have been indicted. The media is having vast swaths of America believing otherwise, but she couldn't get elected dog catcher in your town, let alone President.

[jjgold]

nobody knows who will win period

it will be very close

[Snowball]

The polls switched in the last hour of brexit and yet it was a close election, how is that getting it wrong?

Polls get it right 99% of the time.

What makes your amateur analysis worth shit compared to the people who actually know what they are talking about?

Ha. You're name doesn't ring a bell.. but I suppose unwarranted insults are a way to get attention.

Please understand, I watched Brexit in real time, and I watched the odds in real time, and they
were all on Brexit not happening.

My post did not mention polls.

The betting odds and financial markets were staunchly against Brexit happening right to the end,
and so were the elites.

The parallel which escapes you is that today the polls are showing a tight race, but the odds
are on Clinton so heavily that the polls are not the reason why the Clinton odds are so favored.
That's what happened with Brexit.

Thusly, your insulting retort to my post is both rude and logically moot.

[ByeShea]

Ha. You're name doesn't ring a bell.. but I suppose unwarranted insults are a way to get attention.

Please understand, I watched Brexit in real time, and I watched the odds in real time, and they
were all on Brexit not happening.

My post did not mention polls.

The betting odds and financial markets were staunchly against Brexit happening right to the end,
and so were the elites.

The parallel which escapes you is that today the polls are showing a tight race, but the odds
are on Clinton so heavily that the polls are not the reason why the Clinton odds are so favored.
That's what happened with Brexit.

Thusly, your insulting retort to my post is both rude and logically moot.

Sad to see Greget buried like this, but I guess it had to happen.

[thetrinity]

But the popular vote is meaningless. Electoral vote is all that matters.

I'm saying those electoral votes can change quickly. Just about every state awards all the votes even if 1 vote decides the state. I really thought it was a given everyone knew electoral votes decided it. I think I saw somewhere it's decidedly more likely the system screws clinton than Trump.

[thetrinity]

Sad to see Greget buried like this, but I guess it had to happen.

As inevitable as the sun rising in the east.

[d2bets]

I'm saying those electoral votes can change quickly. Just about every state awards all the votes even if 1 vote decides the state. I really thought it was a given everyone knew electoral votes decided it. I think I saw somewhere it's decidedly more likely the system screws clinton than Trump.

I'm not sure that's the case this year. Trump is dumb enough to fight hard for votes in NY and CA, thinking he can win. He might do 1 or 2 million better there than past candidates, which changes the pop vote a lot, but changes the EV not at all. Clinton will know exactly what states to target and which ones to ignore. They know the electoral game.

[thetrinity]

I'm not sure that's the case this year. Trump is dumb enough to fight hard for votes in NY and CA, thinking he can win. He might do 1 or 2 million better there than past candidates, which changes the pop vote a lot, but changes the EV not at all. Clinton will know exactly what states to target and which ones to ignore. They know the electoral game.

He's gonna concede those states, come on. Someone asked him about his son running for mayor of NYC and he laughed it off saying it was too liberal and he couldn't win, wouldn't waste his time. Trump also knows what states to target, Clinton, the more seasoned politician probably can do it more efficiently.

[Ian]

http://www.electionprojection.com/pr...-elections.php

Please tell me that this is incorrect. It say's July 28th. Hillary can't be this far ahead. Does anyone have an accurate site or is this accurate? Trump needs to chill with those tweets every 5 minutes. It make's him seem like an angry, insecure old man.

If you believe that markets are the best way to predict future events, predictit.org has Clinton as a 2:1 favorite.

[Itsamazing777]

She's 100% to win, and has been all along

Not Hardly. That's why Her odds have dropped hundreds of dollars...... Lollll

[jtoler]

Trump will lose the state he was born in, lose every state he has a house in, and lose every state he's had a casino or major business in, perhaps we should listen to the people that know him best.

[Barnes & Whine]

We don't need WWIII, check these out. Vote Trump and pray.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4ythLYtbEs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCvRzjuR4Ws

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdMWpvvnk2Q

[newguy]

That in a nutshell tells you terrible the us electoral system is.

Agree 100% with this. When I was living in Chicago, there was no reason for me to go to polls. I wonder how many people don't bother going as they know their vote doesn't count.

[TheMoneyShot]

Interesting website....

Again.... people still need to go out and vote. According to this website...

Major Swing States Are:

Florida 29 (Weak Clinton)
Michigan 16 (Weak Clinton)
North Carolina 15 (Weak Clinton)
Ohio 18 (Weak Clinton)
Pennsylvania 20 (Weak Clinton)
Virginia 13 (Weak Clinton)

Electoral Count 111 (Swinging)

Current Projection

Clinton 341
Trump 197


Trump would need to take 4 of the 6 swing states listed for a win. (Trump Must Win Florida)

Trump would need to take 5 of the 6 swing states listed for a win. (Any 5 of the 6 States)

If I'm Trump... I would spend most of my time in those states. Yes, you need to be EVERYWHERE.... but... no question Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida... are the key. He wins all 4.... he's your next US President.

[thetrinity]

Interesting website....

Again.... people still need to go out and vote. According to this website...

Major Swing States Are:

Florida 29 (Weak Clinton)
Michigan 16 (Weak Clinton)
North Carolina 15 (Weak Clinton)
Ohio 18 (Weak Clinton)
Pennsylvania 20 (Weak Clinton)
Virginia 13 (Weak Clinton)

Electoral Count 111 (Swinging)

Current Projection

Clinton 341
Trump 197


Trump would need to take 4 of the 6 swing states listed for a win. (Trump Must Win Florida)

Trump would need to take 5 of the 6 swing states listed for a win. (Any 5 of the 6 States)

If I'm Trump... I would spend most of my time in those states. Yes, you need to be EVERYWHERE.... but... no question Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida... are the key. He wins all 4.... he's your next US President.

I'm glad I live in Pennsylvania, I know we matter so much, I'm sure you feel like that in Michigan.

[Itsamazing777]

sadly Michigan is full of low iq government handout losers.....

[TheMoneyShot]

I'm glad I live in Pennsylvania, I know we matter so much, I'm sure you feel like that in Michigan.

I live just about 15-20 minutes away from Detroit. A lot of my family is voting Trump. They feel like Obama mislead them. They feel Hillary will do the same. Most of my family are hard working blue collar people... again... they just want someone new. That email situation with Hillary made them change their minds. I can't speak for everyone in Michigan. I also can't speak for the minorities in the area. Every time I'm at a grocery store... and I'm in line... I always see at least 1 person use their EBT card. So, knowing this... I would imagine they would vote Democratic. Because they feel a Republican would strip there freebies away from them. Even though our Michigan governor here is Republican. Go figure.

I have been to Pittsburgh 2-3 times... can't remember the other cities I went to... but it's very similar to the cities where I'm from near Detroit. Seems like down to earth people... blue collar... hard working people. That want answers and want hope.

I just pray good things come out of this. But no question Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Florida.... are the states that need to speak up in this election.

[trytrytry]

It could also matter that trump will lose nevada in a tight one.

[d2bets]

Interesting website....

Again.... people still need to go out and vote. According to this website...

Major Swing States Are:

Florida 29 (Weak Clinton)
Michigan 16 (Weak Clinton)
North Carolina 15 (Weak Clinton)
Ohio 18 (Weak Clinton)
Pennsylvania 20 (Weak Clinton)
Virginia 13 (Weak Clinton)

Electoral Count 111 (Swinging)

Current Projection

Clinton 341
Trump 197


Trump would need to take 4 of the 6 swing states listed for a win. (Trump Must Win Florida)

Trump would need to take 5 of the 6 swing states listed for a win. (Any 5 of the 6 States)

If I'm Trump... I would spend most of my time in those states. Yes, you need to be EVERYWHERE.... but... no question Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida... are the key. He wins all 4.... he's your next US President.

Decent analysis, but it's simpler. Michigan and Virginia aren't nearly as relevant. Those are so much tougher for Trump in that if he wins those that means he'll have swept the rest anyway. He isn't winning Michiga, but losing Ohio or Penn. And he isnt winning Virginia, but losing NC or PA.

So the simpler analysis is that it's FL, PA, OH, NC and Trump needs to sweep them all. A rarer path would be if Trump wins a couple of the western states (CO/NM/NV) but that's quite unlikely. FL, OH, PA, NC. And frankly, if you want to narrow further, ignore Ohio. Because if Trump can win PA he almost certainly wins OH also. So the big 3 are FL, PA, NC. Somewhat different regions and voting blocs for each. Trump has a margin of error that is virtually zero.